D
Deleted111007
Guest
This is just me riffing but hear me out.
To anyone with a fig of foresight it's pretty obvious AI will very soon shatter existing paradigms of work, business models and very likely capitalism as we know it.
Whether or not GPT-4 is already exhibiting signs of AGI (which this early on in the piece is insane) is besides the point. It's bound to happen in the 5 or 6 release or some time soon. As soon as the models become recursive and self-refining we're going to have a positive feedback loop with very very fast AI improvements.
Initially people will say 'it makes me so much more productive' but paradigms like this will only last a few months. Check our google or microsoft's upcoming AI business offerings with their email summaries and what not, it's just AI talking to AI and soon it will be. Businesses will just cut out the middleman (workers) and have various AI talking to each other to solve business problems. AI will market to AI, sell to AI and buy from AI.
These improvements will lead to massive massive job cuts and layoffs. Millions of people of every stripe and profession, surgeons, lawyers, corporate professionals, drivers, labourer's – once robotics is combined with AGI AI models it's all over. I anticipate with us hitting the exponential curve now or very soon we'll reach a tipping point in the next 5-7 years and governments will be forced to step in or face social disintegration and collapse.
The solution will very likely be some form of UBI. This solution in itself will create a massive problem. With many many people not working and only receiving a UBI, business owners and people who already own assets will only get richer due to the efficiencies AI will create. Wealth gaps will rapidly increase to the point of being unsustainable. Governments again will be forced to step in and potentially 'level the playing field' and garnish or confiscate the wealth of people x% greater than the average and redistribute it. In 10 years you won't be allowed to be X amount richer than the societal average there's just no way it'll slide with the general populace. You can't have a society with AI run business owning trillionaires making up 0.00001% of your population and have the rest of your population making a UBI of$1000 a week.
I've heard lot's of people say 'work on human to human' businesses where you need a human touch. It's an obvious choice but in my opinion a deeply flawed one. Why on earth would we want human nurses or psychologists or personal trainers? Being human means you're shitty sometimes, you have bad days, you're not at you're best, you don't rock up to work sometimes. Do you want to be trained or cared for by that or a sunny, cheerful, engaging entity that brings the best out in you and gives you impeccable care 100% of the time? We only use human to human now because it's all we have.
AI will also profoundly affect the fabric of society such as birth rates. Why would any lonely, disaffected man or woman participate in the shitshow that is the dating pool when in five years they'll have a physically perfect, caring and loving physical sythentic partner that is perfectly tailored to them and their foibles and personality that also never complains about housework and makes love like a god. Why would anyone date real people? Talk to GPT-4 for an hour and you'll quickly see yourself anthropomorphizing it and building an emotional connection, wait until you can buy a perfect 10 with the face and personality of an angel and tell me if you'd rather that or your pissy, past-their-prime husband or wife.
I'm rambling and being a little pessimistic but the gist of what I'm saying is, what is the point of grinding yourself down to a nub to hustle to reach the 'fastlane' when it's very very likely that the model it's predicated on will no longer be relevant in 5-7 years? What's the point of acquiring greater than average wealth when it will eventually be redistributed?
Maybe I'm still processing the quantum leaps in AI this year but at the moment if I run the tape on any idea 5-7 years AGI makes it redundant and pointless.
To anyone with a fig of foresight it's pretty obvious AI will very soon shatter existing paradigms of work, business models and very likely capitalism as we know it.
Whether or not GPT-4 is already exhibiting signs of AGI (which this early on in the piece is insane) is besides the point. It's bound to happen in the 5 or 6 release or some time soon. As soon as the models become recursive and self-refining we're going to have a positive feedback loop with very very fast AI improvements.
Initially people will say 'it makes me so much more productive' but paradigms like this will only last a few months. Check our google or microsoft's upcoming AI business offerings with their email summaries and what not, it's just AI talking to AI and soon it will be. Businesses will just cut out the middleman (workers) and have various AI talking to each other to solve business problems. AI will market to AI, sell to AI and buy from AI.
These improvements will lead to massive massive job cuts and layoffs. Millions of people of every stripe and profession, surgeons, lawyers, corporate professionals, drivers, labourer's – once robotics is combined with AGI AI models it's all over. I anticipate with us hitting the exponential curve now or very soon we'll reach a tipping point in the next 5-7 years and governments will be forced to step in or face social disintegration and collapse.
The solution will very likely be some form of UBI. This solution in itself will create a massive problem. With many many people not working and only receiving a UBI, business owners and people who already own assets will only get richer due to the efficiencies AI will create. Wealth gaps will rapidly increase to the point of being unsustainable. Governments again will be forced to step in and potentially 'level the playing field' and garnish or confiscate the wealth of people x% greater than the average and redistribute it. In 10 years you won't be allowed to be X amount richer than the societal average there's just no way it'll slide with the general populace. You can't have a society with AI run business owning trillionaires making up 0.00001% of your population and have the rest of your population making a UBI of$1000 a week.
I've heard lot's of people say 'work on human to human' businesses where you need a human touch. It's an obvious choice but in my opinion a deeply flawed one. Why on earth would we want human nurses or psychologists or personal trainers? Being human means you're shitty sometimes, you have bad days, you're not at you're best, you don't rock up to work sometimes. Do you want to be trained or cared for by that or a sunny, cheerful, engaging entity that brings the best out in you and gives you impeccable care 100% of the time? We only use human to human now because it's all we have.
AI will also profoundly affect the fabric of society such as birth rates. Why would any lonely, disaffected man or woman participate in the shitshow that is the dating pool when in five years they'll have a physically perfect, caring and loving physical sythentic partner that is perfectly tailored to them and their foibles and personality that also never complains about housework and makes love like a god. Why would anyone date real people? Talk to GPT-4 for an hour and you'll quickly see yourself anthropomorphizing it and building an emotional connection, wait until you can buy a perfect 10 with the face and personality of an angel and tell me if you'd rather that or your pissy, past-their-prime husband or wife.
I'm rambling and being a little pessimistic but the gist of what I'm saying is, what is the point of grinding yourself down to a nub to hustle to reach the 'fastlane' when it's very very likely that the model it's predicated on will no longer be relevant in 5-7 years? What's the point of acquiring greater than average wealth when it will eventually be redistributed?
Maybe I'm still processing the quantum leaps in AI this year but at the moment if I run the tape on any idea 5-7 years AGI makes it redundant and pointless.
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