The Ukraine War, implications, outcome?

[kebman]

It's not as simple as that. Russia has a strong army too. This war will be different to anything we've ever seen if more countries get involved. Russia could easily drop bombs in US and US could do the same with Russia.

The European army is weak. If China has Russia's back then the west will be depending on the US who was the one of the weakest and incompetent leaders on the planet.

Arguably Europe's bigger countries has some very good and professional armies. Poland has also spent a lot of resources on building up a good defence. I don't think Putin wants a direct confrontation with NATO. He's already seen what a few well-placed man pads can do to his jets and armour. I doubt he wants to see what a well placed tank or artillery unit can do. His only good card against a Western army ... are nukes... And where I work we just got word that the county has iodine pills on standby, and will start handing them out if needed...... In fact, there has been small drips of heightened readiness for a few years now, since we got that slightly disturbing mail from our civil defence authorities on how to prepare for "emergencies" by basically stocking up on at least a week's worth of tins, water and fuel; things we haven't bothered with since the Cold War.

 

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[Silverfox148]

It's interesting how fast this Ukraine crisis came upon us after the whole narrative around C0VlD-19 fell apart/exausted itself.

It's also interesting how this Russian sanctions crackdown is now going to be used to increase regulation/crack down in a variety of different areas(cryptos, independent journalists, etc)

 

[loop101]

So if Poland, a NATO member, lets Ukraine use its airbases to fight Russia - and Russia takes out the bases with cruise missiles, isn't the next step nuclear war?

 

[Silverfox148]

So if Poland, a NATO member, lets Ukraine uses its airbases to fight Russia - and Russia takes out the bases with cruise missiles, isn't the next step nuclear war?

This is the next military escalation step, I would expect a limited cruise missile strike to give NATO an off ramp if it so chooses before it goes to tactical nukes, the possibility for this is falling by the day, it's possible but unlikely.

The Poles are getting nervous as they will be the next Russian target if this escalates and most likely all of the major European countries with the exception of the UK have reached the end of their escalation ladder, it's over for them, they look to be trying to not say anything or deescalate at this point.

It looks like it may be over for Ukraine in terms of real further support as we are now starting to see real effects in the financial markets/gas prices/energy prices in the US/Europe. China is also not onboard with sanctions and the instability is triggering margin calls throughout the world. The moment this begins to cost people in power real money in the west, this thing will begin to wind down from the western side.

Plans to supply fighter jets to Ukraine could be doomed

The risk of being deemed a "co-combatant" by Russia continues to permeate every U.S. and NATO decision about weapons transfers and intelligence sharing.

www.axios.com

 

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[Xeon]

As much as I hate to say this, but if Poland is stupid enough to poke the angry bear and agitate it further, and risking the lives of their own 38 million people + (whatever number of Ukrainian refugees in there), then they're just asking for it.
It's clear Zelensky wants to prolong the war for whatever reasons (likely instructions from his owner), and wants to drag the whole Europe and countless lives into this.


Anyway, Coach Red Pill has a new channel dedicated to this war, and this video about Zelensky is an eye opener:

Watch from 08:30 onwards (anyway, the link will start at 08:30).

Both Putin and Zelensky are one and the same. The only difference is they belong to different countries.


ADD: I just read the news that Europe is weaning itself off Russian gas. How do-able and practical is this?

 

[Silverfox148]

The whole weaning themselves off Russian gas is bullshit to be honest, these projects would take years and the countries in question and their populace are not all onboard.

The fact is, these sanctions themselves are unsustainable, trying to cut a country the size of Russia out of the world economy has never been done before and is unlikely to succeed. Even if they could work, do they want an outlaw/heavily sanctioned nuclear weapons state next to them?

These sanctions may end up backfiring significantly as now major countries such as China, India, Pakistan, Iran ,Saudia Arabia, etc will have to rethink their strategies on staying tied to the U.S dollar and risk getting cut off from it.

The biggest loser from all this apart from the Ukrainian people will be U.S dollar hegemony.

 

[Marigold]

Fake fake news. Seen it all now.

Much easier to fake when masks cover the mouth! Convenient

 

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[Xeon]

 

[MitchC]

Much easier to fake when masks cover the mouth! Convenient

It gave me a good laugh anyway, how ridiculous it would have been if true

 

[Marigold]

“A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool”

 

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[Dark Knight]

As much as I hate to say this, but if Poland is stupid enough to poke the angry bear and agitate it further, and risking the lives of their own 38 million people + (whatever number of Ukrainian refugees in there), then they're just asking for it.
It's clear Zelensky wants to prolong the war for whatever reasons (likely instructions from his owner), and wants to drag the whole Europe and countless lives into this.


Anyway, Coach Red Pill has a new channel dedicated to this war, and this video about Zelensky is an eye opener:

Watch from 08:30 onwards (anyway, the link will start at 08:30).

Both Putin and Zelensky are one and the same. The only difference is they belong to different countries.


ADD: I just read the news that Europe is weaning itself off Russian gas. How do-able and practical is this?

We do not want a war with Russia in Poland. However, they can attack us themselves as it was once in history. It is a very stupid nation with a madman who rules. Most Russian citizens support Putin and his actions. The Russians themselves do not know what awaits them - the country will soon turn into the second North Korea. Western companies are withdrawing from Russia overnight. Yesterday, all BIG 4 companies (PwC, Deloitte, EY, KPMG) announced their escape from Russia. They have joined Apple, Netflix, VISA, MasterCard and many others already. Russia's economy is expected to shrink by more than 10% this year.

When it comes to cutting off from Russian gas, the Baltic Pipe is opening in Poland this year and we will be able to get gas from Norway and we will not need Russia. Germany is also to expand gas terminals and search from other countries.

 

[Xeon]

Nutcases.

 

[Trevor Kuntz]

@Black_Dragon43, please tell me who will replace Putin when he is dead/removed from the presidency? Since we both know you have no clue who will replace Putin, do you consider the likelihood that his replacement is just as likely - if not more likely - to be worse than Putin?

The Kremlin has no clear line of succession. His successor is unknown, his currency is in acute decline (140 RUB/1 USD), his military struggles to operate even 60 miles beyond their primary supply depots, and the country is signaling technical default (paying in RUB instead of USD) to its creditors, which is only worsening the currency crisis. You suggest a more moderate leader would replace Putin in these circumstances? I really think you should think this through critically.

 

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[BizyDad]

@Black_Dragon43, please tell me who will replace Putin when he is dead/removed from the presidency? Since we both know you have no clue who will replace Putin, do you consider the likelihood that his replacement is just as likely - if not more likely - to be worse than Putin?

The Kremlin has no clear line of succession. His successor is unknown, his currency is in acute decline (140 RUB/1 USD), his military struggles to operate even 60 miles beyond their primary supply depots, and the country is signaling technical default (paying in RUB instead of USD) to its creditors, which is only worsening the currency crisis. You suggest a more moderate leader would replace Putin in these circumstances? I really think you should think this through critically.

Great point. I think in this scenario, China becomes the main power broker in Russia.

 

[Chapas]

@Black_Dragon43, please tell me who will replace Putin when he is dead/removed from the presidency? Since we both know you have no clue who will replace Putin, do you consider the likelihood that his replacement is just as likely - if not more likely - to be worse than Putin?

The Kremlin has no clear line of succession. His successor is unknown, his currency is in acute decline (140 RUB/1 USD), his military struggles to operate even 60 miles beyond their primary supply depots, and the country is signaling technical default (paying in RUB instead of USD) to its creditors, which is only worsening the currency crisis. You suggest a more moderate leader would replace Putin in these circumstances? I really think you should think this through critically.

Agree. It's like my Western friends hoping for Navalny to become president. They don't even know this dude, but if Western media say he is good, then he must be good. Imagine Putin is assassinated and a power battle breaks out between criminals and oligarchs for the throne. In a country with 6400 nuclear weapons. That could really turn ugly.

 

[Trevor Kuntz]

Oh, right. Very simple. Can't believe I didn't think of that.

If they disagree with Putin, it could only be because he has gone too far. Right, right right. There is zero chance that there aren't some hardliners who think he hasn't gone far enough (Russian versions of Douglas MacArthur) and would be open to using more drastic measures to ensure tactical victory. I mean, that would be ridiculous, right?

/sarcasm

 

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[RicardoGrande]

Anyone else seeing gas price movement and the downstream effects of that right now?

Gas gained about 1.50$/gal in the past two weeks and while I haven't seen in-store price ripples yet, I'm afraid to go and look.

 

[JordanK]

I bought Diesel and put it into storage container drums at 1.85 euro a litre 5 days ago.

It's now 2.10 euro a litre.

Should have stocked up even earlier... it was like 1.60 euro two/three weeks ago.

For comparison... these prices are like 8-10$ a gallon.


Government excise duty cuts to reduce petrol and diesel cost by 15 to 20c

 

[Xeon]

McDonald's, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo and Starbucks join a corporate exodus from Russia

The big American companies are the latest to suspend their operations in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

www.npr.org

One of the most disgusting piece of news I've read this week. So cancel culture goes full steam and is completely tied to politics? It's ok to do **** to the Russians what their politicians did to Ukraine? An eye for an eye? If your dad hits my son, I'll hit your entire family? And the reason for these companies exiting is "humanitarian grounds" LOL

MacDonald's and PepsiCo and a host of other such companies, with their chemical food and drinks, have killed far more people in the world than this war will ever have. If anything, it shows that the world must not be over reliant on any one country, and as painful as it is, NOW is the time for the world to gradually shift away from the US dollar and services (including social media and the underlying pipelines of the internet).

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Disgusting.

Social media breeds morons and gives them a platform for their idiocy.

McDonald's, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo and Starbucks join a corporate exodus from Russia

The big American companies are the latest to suspend their operations in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

www.npr.org

One of the most disgusting piece of news I've read this week. So cancel culture goes full steam and is completely tied to politics? It's ok to do **** to the Russians what their politicians did to Ukraine? An eye for an eye? If your dad hits my son, I'll hit your entire family? And the reason for these companies exiting is "humanitarian grounds" LOL

MacDonald's and PepsiCo and a host of other such companies, with their chemical food and drinks, have killed far more people in the world than this war will ever have. If anything, it shows that the world must not be over reliant on any one country, and as painful as it is, NOW is the time for the world to gradually shift away from the US dollar and services (including social media and the underlying pipelines of the internet).

Yea truly disgusting, corporations canceling whomever they disagree with, now they’re trying to cancel an entire country. As you alluded, these companies have killed more people in all the world wars combined.

 

[Kevin88660]

McDonald's, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo and Starbucks join a corporate exodus from Russia

The big American companies are the latest to suspend their operations in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

www.npr.org

One of the most disgusting piece of news I've read this week. So cancel culture goes full steam and is completely tied to politics? It's ok to do **** to the Russians what their politicians did to Ukraine? An eye for an eye? If your dad hits my son, I'll hit your entire family? And the reason for these companies exiting is "humanitarian grounds" LOL

MacDonald's and PepsiCo and a host of other such companies, with their chemical food and drinks, have killed far more people in the world than this war will ever have. If anything, it shows that the world must not be over reliant on any one country, and as painful as it is, NOW is the time for the world to gradually shift away from the US dollar and services (including social media and the underlying pipelines of the internet).

If they don’t they will lose many of their main customers in west, making them a target. More like an act of self preservation.

The real damage is on the investment side. BP is selling Russian equities voluntarily for a loss.

Etoro is focefully liquidating the account holder’s russian stocks at a loss. Retails investors involuntarily bear the loss that they cannot control.

 

[Trevor Kuntz]

If they don’t they will lose many of their main customers in west, making them a target. More like an act of self preservation.

The real damage is on the investment side. BP is selling Russian equities voluntarily for a loss.

Etoro is focefully liquidating the account holder’s russian stocks at a loss. Retails investors involuntarily bear the loss that they cannot control.

Are their products sourced from within Russia anyway? If not, seems like a losing bet to buy products from outside Russia using other currency and then selling them in Russia for depreciating RUB.

Edit: answered my own question on McDonalds (they source a lot within Russia) but Starbucks imports its coffee and Coca Cola and Pepsi import their concentrate from Ireland. So yeah, doesn't make sense fpr those companies to import goods and sell in rubles and then have to convert back to USD/Euro.

 

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[Xeon]

There may be light at the end of the tunnel after all!

Redirect Notice

 

[Kevin88660]

Are their products sourced from within Russia anyway? If not, seems like a losing bet to buy products from outside Russia using other currency and then selling them in Russia for depreciating RUB.

Edit: answered my own question on McDonalds (they source a lot within Russia) but Starbucks imports its coffee and Coca Cola and Pepsi import their concentrate from Ireland. So yeah, doesn't make sense fpr those companies to import goods and sell in rubles and then have to convert back to USD/Euro.

Russia is not a too big market compared to the west, plus the transaction cost due to sanction cost of business could be high.

Fast food is basically junk in developed economies and Starbuck drink while pricy its still affordable to the middle class. There are items that on quite higher end for Russian who mainly prepare their own food and cannot afford to eat out daily. I don’t think the impact its going to be big. Most of the big damage are due to the official sanctions and capital trying to fly.

I heard men who can afford to leave the country are leaving as they are scared of a mass mobilization of men as what they have seen in Ukraine. Putin on TV reassured that only professional soldiers are involved and there will be no further mobilization.

 

[Kevin88660]

There may be light at the end of the tunnel after all!

Redirect Notice

Good sign at least. Probably due to mounting military pressure.

Russia wanted
1) No Nato
2) Demilitarization of Ukraine (Not sure what it means actually. can they have an army
3) The two break away provinces recognized as independent and Russia hets to keep Crimea

With no third party military intervention Zelenskkyy has no bargaining power. Probably he is just delaying the unconditional surrender or else the hardliner or the ultranationalist will revoke against his weakness.

As Ukraine started to lose more ground the Ukrainian side can reach more consensus towards concession.

Russia military is making claims that they are uncovering drug trade and bioweapon research in Ukraine territory. Let us see if they can provide the evidence to back their claim.

 

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[Cyberthal]

I predict the price of white children will increase substantially. Times are tough all over.

With any luck, some of the escaped bioweapons will cull the population before whatever interstellar weather is flaring neighboring stars fries Earth's power grid.

I kinda want to see airborne rabies, just so we can finally settle the zombie prepper debate. Also, it would be poetic.

 

[MattR82]

Wow, lots of backlash towards Russian athletes as well. So many people saying they should be banned unless they "say this comment exactly" etc.

 

[Silverfox148]

There may be light at the end of the tunnel after all!

Redirect Notice

The end of the road is quickly approaching for him, it's over for this guy. The U.S/NATO called Putin's bluff by using Ukraine as a proxy and Putin responded with force, Javelins/Stingers/etc are great and they are causing higher losses than expected but the Russian leadership cares little for their soldiers most likely.

Western countries have reached the end of the escalation ladder, the end is near Zelensky, Germany has gone as far as it is willing to go and is unwilling to go further. Any further escalation has the potential to split NATO apart. Even the Poles who seemed to have been spoiling for fight have reached the end of their escalation. NATO is beginning to realize that the only way to counter Russia in Ukraine is with NATO ground forces, nothing else is deterring Putin and the Russian leadership.

I doubt history will look kindly on this Zelensky guy especially if he makes it out alive to a nice rich life afterwards as Ukraine is/was one of the most corrupt countries on Earth. He could have kept western Ukraine or even most of Ukraine and prevented the whole invasion if he had played his cards right.

The aftermath of this Ukraine situation is going to be a big headache for Europe and may ironically lead long term to the dissolution of NATO especially when it comes to the big players like Germany/France/Italy/Spain and any other major country that would be expected to provide major ground forces for countries like Estonia, etc.

Pentagon rejects Polish plan to give fighter jets to U.S. to supply Ukraine

The plan "raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance," Kirby said.

www.axios.com

 

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[Xeon]

Ukraine's task is to hold off Russia for 7-10 days: Senior official

LVIV, Ukraine: Ukraine must hold off Russia's attack for the next seven to 10 days to deny Moscow claiming any sort of victory, said a senior government official on Wednesday (Mar 9), as more than 2 million refugees fled the biggest assault on a European country since World War II. Vadym...

www.channelnewsasia.com

 

[loop101]

McDonald's, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo and Starbucks join a corporate exodus from Russia

The big American companies are the latest to suspend their operations in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

www.npr.org

One of the most disgusting piece of news I've read this week. So cancel culture goes full steam and is completely tied to politics? It's ok to do **** to the Russians what their politicians did to Ukraine? An eye for an eye? If your dad hits my son, I'll hit your entire family? And the reason for these companies exiting is "humanitarian grounds" LOL

MacDonald's and PepsiCo and a host of other such companies, with their chemical food and drinks, have killed far more people in the world than this war will ever have. If anything, it shows that the world must not be over reliant on any one country, and as painful as it is, NOW is the time for the world to gradually shift away from the US dollar and services (including social media and the underlying pipelines of the internet).

Ironically, Russia is better off without a lot of these companies. No soda, no Facebook, no Big Macs, sounds like an improvement.