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NOTABLE! The Coming Recession (2019-2020?)

tpuffer

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I've read these and it indeed seems a bit concerning.

Question is, what do we do as investors do?
Is there even anything to do?
Pull money into Gold?
Hard assets?
Mattress money?
Get money out of the banks?

I've always struggled with trying to figure out what another financial calamity (worse than 2008) would look like and how to be prepared for it.
The best thing to do is buy more highly inflated stocks and let the good times roll!:rofl:

Cash flowing real estate - the correct properties. Note - I am biased here, but executed with fundamentally sound principles provides great benefits.

I didn't mention Class B-C apartments earlier. These generally do fine as well - provided the cashflow is adequate; amongst other factors. The downside to apartments is that they have a higher break-even point from mobile home parks and self-storage.

Gold/silver makes sense in my head because historically it has been used as currency - well before fiat currency. Definitely not an expert here though.
 

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PizzaOnTheRoof

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Pulled all my money out of the market to keep in cash and wait for an opportunity to buy low!
 

Rivoli

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I've read these and it indeed seems a bit concerning.

Question is, what do we do as investors do?
Is there even anything to do?
Pull money into Gold?
Hard assets?
Mattress money?
Get money out of the banks?

I've always struggled with trying to figure out what another financial calamity (worse than 2008) would look like and how to be prepared for it.
If things got really bad here, is there a safe haven country you think of to run to?
I’m Lebanese and decided if we every elected a government that would destroy USA as we know it I’d send my money there and go back.
 

PizzaOnTheRoof

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If things got really bad here, is there a safe haven country you think of to run to?
I’m Lebanese and decided if we every elected a government that would destroy USA as we know it I’d send my money there and go back.
Did people flee the US during The Great Depression? Genuinely curious.
 

lowtek

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Did people flee the US during The Great Depression? Genuinely curious.
I don't believe so, but I'm no historian.

My personal opinion is that the USA is the last bastion for western civilization, tenuous though that title may be. If it goes south here, it's game over everywhere. There's nowhere else to go. No other nation, that I'm aware of, has as many rights nominally enshrined as here.
 

SamRussell

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I don't believe so, but I'm no historian.

My personal opinion is that the USA is the last bastion for western civilization, tenuous though that title may be. If it goes south here, it's game over everywhere. There's nowhere else to go. No other nation, that I'm aware of, has as many rights nominally enshrined as here.
At this point in time that is true, but there is also some hope in Eastern Europe. A lot of Eastern Europeans are increasingly embracing classical values. The Ayn Rand Institute is doing a lot of work in Eastern Europe and finding people there more receptive to ideas of freedom and rights (actual rights, not the mess that is "human rights") compared to Western Europe and the US.
 

ADayattheRoxbury

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Whenever someone is worried about a recession, I tell them that it’s probably best to change up the way that their portfolio is operating. It’s better to move to a more balanced approach, while most of the time, I’m really heavy on stocks, when I have recession fears, I switch to a

30% stock index
30% bond index
10% commodities index
15% real estate index ETF
15% government treasuries.

This allows you to still get some market exposure but significantly reduce risk and market beta will also be smaller,

For those with more time on their hands, adding a handpicked basket of crypto (~5 to 15%) along with the possible use of outside investments that have no market correlation like investing in Law, while reducing the stock market index from 30 to 0, is also possible.

The risk in this is that in timing the market, we will usually fail. The last time we were in a 9+ year bull run, people said we’ll be in a recession next year, but they also said the same in 2015... and would’ve missed out on 4 years of gains. Anyways. I’m rambling now. :)
 

Strategery

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Replies were at 666 and I didn't like it.
 

Everyman

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Regarding recent events.

This guy is by far the best analyst I have ever read (and I have read....).

His main thesis for the Sept QE to infinity is that there are no buyers for UST, with petrodollar being dumped in favour of more local currencies. So USA is fully bankrupt without some miracle happening (like taking over Greenland or any other helpless victim with natural resources, BAU for the US Army).

He also mentions talks with China to devalue FEDs (aka US Dollars) to ... well it's just a guess but - from 7 - 40k FEDs per 1oz Au.

He explains a lot of the other events too. Previous couple of months. His writing (Polish) is great too, but the facts and his analysis are spot on.

Unfortunately in Polish, but don't be lazy, you can try using google translate for some parts. He also gives a lot of external links which are English. Also the graphs speak a lot by themselves.


More active on FB


In this tab you will find his forecasts for the next couple of months/years which are easy to decipher (in English):


Did people flee the US during The Great Depression? Genuinely curious.
I know how it will sound but people don't generally act... react... even when lined up to concentration camps........

My personal opinion is that the USA is the last bastion for western civilization, tenuous though that title may be. If it goes south here, it's game over everywhere. There's nowhere else to go. No other nation, that I'm aware of, has as many rights nominally enshrined as here.
I am curious why you think like that? Are you worried about cultural differences?

At this point in time that is true, but there is also some hope in Eastern Europe. A lot of Eastern Europeans are increasingly embracing classical values. The Ayn Rand Institute is doing a lot of work in Eastern Europe and finding people there more receptive to ideas of freedom and rights (actual rights, not the mess that is "human rights") compared to Western Europe and the US.
Eastern Europe is not better although conservative people, the elites are corrupt and against the native people...
 
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JScott

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It appears to be official -- QE is once again underway:


I do find it tremendously disheartening that the Fed has become so politicized over the past 6-8 years. While there is absolutely no argument that this is simply QE (expanding the balance sheet and increasing the money supply through the purchase of treasuries), note this part of the article:

"How the Fed will go about expanding the securities it holds will be explained in the coming days, though Treasury bill purchases will be involved, the central bank chief said during a speech in Denver, though Powell stressed the approach shouldn’t be confused with the quantitative easing done during and after the financial crisis.

'This is not QE. In no sense is this QE,' he said in a question and answer session after the speech."
 

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lowtek

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It appears to be official -- QE is once again underway:


I do find it tremendously disheartening that the Fed has become so politicized over the past 6-8 years. While there is absolutely no argument that this is simply QE (expanding the balance sheet and increasing the money supply through the purchase of treasuries), note this part of the article:

"How the Fed will go about expanding the securities it holds will be explained in the coming days, though Treasury bill purchases will be involved, the central bank chief said during a speech in Denver, though Powell stressed the approach shouldn’t be confused with the quantitative easing done during and after the financial crisis.

'This is not QE. In no sense is this QE,' he said in a question and answer session after the speech."
Any guesses how much time this buys before the next calamity?
 

tpuffer

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@Everyman

Brilliant share. I’ve been doing a ton of learning on precious metals lately. There is definitely a lot of things going on that, in my mind, lends me to have some precious metals in physical form.
 

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@JScott I still have to watch those YT videos, feel free to let me know if you answer these newbie questions in those

What would all this mean to me as I try to get my first house hack? (Currently reading the book btw). Are houses gonna get cheaper? More expensive? Are mortgage rates going to increase?

Second of all this time around I'd like to have funds to take advantage of opportunities... last time I was only 19 and in Argentina, this time if I'm prepared I could potentially come across something good...
 

Bekit

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Regarding recent events.

This guy is by far the best analyst I have ever read (and I have read....).

His main thesis for the Sept QE to infinity is that there are no buyers for UST, with petrodollar being dumped in favour of more local currencies. So USA is fully bankrupt without some miracle happening (like taking over Greenland or any other helpless victim with natural resources, BAU for the US Army).

He also mentions talks with China to devalue FEDs (aka US Dollars) to ... well it's just a guess but - from 7 - 40k FEDs per 1oz Au.

He explains a lot of the other events too. Previous couple of months. His writing (Polish) is great too, but the facts and his analysis are spot on.

Unfortunately in Polish, but don't be lazy, you can try using google translate for some parts. He also gives a lot of external links which are English. Also the graphs speak a lot by themselves.


More active on FB


In this tab you will find his forecasts for the next couple of months/years which are easy to decipher (in English):

Wow. Thanks for sharing. It's nice to see something from outside the echo chamber.

Don't be afraid of the Polish language if you want to check this out, people. Google translate made the page perfectly understandable.

So the question arises - Is this a cause for as much anxiety as I think it is?

Regarding the rising costs of currency hedging in the event of a fall in the US currency exchange rate:
What are the consequences? The cost of UST currency hedging from the perspective of an investor from Berlin or Paris exceeds the value of the coupon, which effectively the debt paper itself is burdened with negative profitability.

So who needs to keep it for the sake of holding it? And this is all the more so because the largest debtor on the planet seems to be in debt even more than Autsajder initially thought. By the way, it may be worth some time to post on the blog about how top financial engineering professionals with their well-proven methods of smoothing Greek and Italian debt made the financial commitments of the federal government US monster à la Greece x100.
Regarding the creation of a two-tier system of reserves held by banks on the ECB account:
With this seemingly inconspicuous operation, Mr. Mario, before retiring a well-deserved retirement, stuck a small pin (not to say a thick cutlass) into the dollar system, cutting him off with a machete from a European source of financing, thanks to which FED bankers have eaten free lunches so far.
Related to the overnight balance issue:
The market that finances daytime operations that are key to market operations should be a solid foundation on which no sudden moves are unacceptable, and on Tuesday morning it behaved like an exotic cryptocurrency whose price changes by a whole percent in the blink of an eye. How can financial planning be planned in advance when the reference interest rate is completely out of control? If one day the benchmark is 2%, the next 5%, how confident are we the next day? How will the secondary debt market behave with such shocks at the very base of financing? How can you now think of then what certainty do we have for the stability of the next day? How will the secondary debt market behave with such shocks at the very base of financing? How can you now think ofreplacing the reference LIBOR rate with something that it has no control over? How stable is the US banking system in reality? How can further incidents of this type affect the short-term rollover of US default debt? How will this affect the implementation of monetary policy? Does 10% on a repo actually mean that securities covered by these loans should not have yields at the same level?
 

Mutant

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@JScott I still have to watch those YT videos, feel free to let me know if you answer these newbie questions in those

What would all this mean to me as I try to get my first house hack? (Currently reading the book btw). Are houses gonna get cheaper? More expensive? Are mortgage rates going to increase?

Second of all this time around I'd like to have funds to take advantage of opportunities... last time I was only 19 and in Argentina, this time if I'm prepared I could potentially come across something good...
In a similar-ish boat here! All I can think to do is to get my fastlane going asap because a) that'll give me cash to invest in stuff when the time is right b) as I will be selling nice-to-haves instead of needs I need to get started whilst people are still in a spending frame of mind!

In terms of the mortgage (fingers crossed for next year) I could tie myself up in knots trying to second guess, but seeing as we're at pretty much historically low interest rates, I'm looking to tie myself in. The longest fix we have over here at the moment seems to be 10 years. I'm thinking to get one of those as an offset mortgage if I can (I may be doing something slightly differently to you though in terms of strategy).

Plus we have Brexit happening, so I've no idea how that'll affect house prices etc. here. Things is currently, neither does anyone else!
 

socaldude

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'This is not QE. In no sense is this QE,' he said in a question and answer session after the speech."
So hold on a sec, they say there's a problem but then that there is no problem. :rofl:

"funding issues"-sounds like what happened in 2008.:rofl:

I would be willing to bet that an institution failed. We obviously won't know until a few months.
 

Bekit

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So hold on a sec, they say there's a problem but then that there is no problem. :rofl:

"funding issues"-sounds like what happened in 2008.:rofl:

I would be willing to bet that an institution failed. We obviously won't know until a few months.
The polish guy that @Everyman mentioned said it was this:

=======begin quoted passage=======
"Finally, we come to the incident from the Arabian Peninsula. On the morning of September 14, Yemeni fighters blow their steel black swans into the air, which after covering hundreds of kilometers hit the Saudi Abqaiq refineries, causing local destruction and causing local fires. And the billions of fools worth the western defense systems of Patriot and Hawk scattered around the area to defend Saudi oil fields and US military bases. The fact that the attack was carried out early in the morning, thanks to which there were no casualties, as well as a whole lot of other objects were saved, makes us believe that it was only a small demonstration attack, illustrating the possibility of operating cheap equipment in the region. At the same time, it aimed to make the Saudi defenseless aware that in the event of aggression against other countries in the region, they become an easy target, so that in the extreme case ALL of their oil infrastructure could be destroyed, which would soon lead to a situation in which the Saudi economy returns to its roots: goat and sheep farming. Well, not today. Meanwhile, Saudi bankers have reason to be worried: the oil price of $ 80, which has remained unchanged for years, makes it impossible to make ends meet, and the finances of the kingdom fall into the abyss, until suddenly Yemeni fighters blow the biggest Saudi hen that lays oil eggs. And in that second they already see that the revenues from oil trade will fall drastically, nevertheless, the current arrangements and transactions will still have to be fulfilled, and if there was still enough trouble, you will also have to borrow oil from your neighbors to carry out overdue oil contracts , which actually requires a whole lot of money, which is missing in bank safes. What to do in such a desperate situation?

Immediately, Saudi financiers think, we still have some blackheads at our buddies on the East Coast, so it's time to use them. They immediately grab the phones and begin to give orders to transfer billions of dollars to save their skin, in such a way that the whole scene begins to look like taken from a memorable film with the alluring Jane Fonda in the lead role:

27944

We are talking about a considerable amount of $ 80 billion, and although Saudi financiers played a prominent role in this operation, it can be assumed that they were not the only ones that for some reason were hurrying to withdraw money from American banks. What banks are we talking about? Here at the moment, you can only beg for, although the autsajder guess-counting "who will come out, be it" would end up somewhere on Bank of America and Citicorpse, which victims for illustrative purposes we will use later. Meanwhile, the next morning, the skillful eyes of smart analysts immediately notice the anomaly in the form of a spread shootout indicating the emergence of a sudden strong stress on the interbank market, which appeared somehow out of nowhere.

27945

Bankers from the East Coast, in turn, are well aware that a huge crater with a diameter of several dozen billion dollars has appeared in the dollar system, which should be patched as soon as possible. Thus, on Tuesday morning, BofA and Citicorpse bankers grab their phones and start ringing buddies in the city, whether they accidentally have to borrow tens of billions of dollars for a moment, so that at the end of the day the balance sheets agree and you do not have to declare bankruptcy the next morning . By eavesdropping on the conversation, you could probably hear something like this:

[Goldman Sucks]: How much? [Citicorpse]: 120mil. [GS]: Collateral? [C]: Pristine triple-A UST-bonds. [GS]: AYFKM ?! 6.5%! [C]: Deal!

[JP Morguen]: Yo! [Bank of America]: Need a quarter, ASAP. Triple-A stuff. [JPM]: WTF !! 9% !! [BofA] Jeez ... Done!

Seeing the desperate situation of the bankers from BofA and Citi, traders from other banks plunder them without mercy, regardless of the consequences, so that on the repo market on this day almost a trillion $ interbank loans are granted at an interest rate of over 5%, despite the official interest rate target at 2.00-2.25%. In other words, who among the bankers knew how to behave properly, that day could pick up dozens of quick bubbles clean. Plucking colleagues in need continues at its best and only those slightly more prudent bankers hair stand up on the view of charts on the monitors:

27946

27947


Seeing what is being done, The Fed, after a little delay, reacts with some delay and with some technical problems, opens its emergency repo window, and buys 53 billion dollars of problematic assets, so as to save from the oppression of our bankers from BofA and Citicorpse begging for cash. Of course, the lion's share of this entire waste paper are high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) with a luminous AAA rating, after all, it would be impossible to throw it all on the market without losing the liquidity of these securities. It should be understood that it has not been made public who exactly has become the recipient of this substantial loan, after all, information about the lack of several dozen billion in several larger banks could cause even more confusion. The unlimited increase in the repo rate has been temporarily under control, however, milk has already spilled and, in front of the world, Anglo-Saxon financiers have been caught with their pants down in a highly embarrassing situation. The market that finances daytime operations that are key to market operations should be a solid foundation on which no sudden moves are unacceptable, and on Tuesday morning it behaved like an exotic cryptocurrency whose price changes by a whole percent in the blink of an eye. How can financial planning be planned in advance when the reference interest rate is completely out of control? If one day the benchmark is 2%, the next 5%, how confident are we the next day? How will the secondary debt market behave with such shocks at the very base of financing? How can you now think of then what certainty do we have for the stability of the next day? How will the secondary debt market behave with such shocks at the very base of financing? How can you now think ofreplacing the reference LIBOR rate with something that it has no control over? How stable is the US banking system in reality? How can further incidents of this type affect the short-term rollover of US default debt? How will this affect the implementation of monetary policy? Does 10% on a repo actually mean that securities covered by these loans should not have yields at the same level? In serious bodies, questions began to multiply like rabbits, and only bubble-insiders are still unable to decipher the abbreviation that identifies the finest assets on the planet: UST .

It is to be understood that the billionth craters in Bank of America and Citicorpse do not disappear just like that, the holes need to be patched, and the patches roll from day to day, which is the reason for the bang start of QE to infinity.

27948

Thus, the Fed is no longer delaying the next day with the opening of the $ 75bn repo wanting to subjugate the federal funds rate, especially since it is the day of the Fed's decision to set the level of interest rates. However, there is division in the Fed itself: some FOMC members are convinced that the dollar should be defended at all costs and that interest rates should be raised. However, the events of recent days make the decision that the absolute priority is to support the vital forces of the treasury's latest debt, which calls for a rate cut, and QE to infinity FOR ANY PRICE, even if that price would be the heads of the presidents on American banknotes. As a consequence, the Fed management makes a decision that gives the world to understand that it is sacrificing green currency on the altar of the saying "whatever it takes to preserve AAA rating . "


=======end quoted passage=======
--Source (Original is in Polish; this English was from Google Translate)

I don't know enough about these matters to judge if that's a likely explanation. Sounds credible to me, but what do you all think?
 

Kid

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Whenever someone is worried about a recession, I tell them that it’s probably best to change up the way that their portfolio is operating. It’s better to move to a more balanced approach, while most of the time, I’m really heavy on stocks, when I have recession fears, I switch to a

30% stock index
30% bond index
10% commodities index
15% real estate index ETF
15% government treasuries.

This allows you to still get some market exposure but significantly reduce risk and market beta will also be smaller,

For those with more time on their hands, adding a handpicked basket of crypto (~5 to 15%) along with the possible use of outside investments that have no market correlation like investing in Law, while reducing the stock market index from 30 to 0, is also possible.

The risk in this is that in timing the market, we will usually fail. The last time we were in a 9+ year bull run, people said we’ll be in a recession next year, but they also said the same in 2015... and would’ve missed out on 4 years of gains. Anyways. I’m rambling now. :)
So very diversified approach. Thank you for writing.
This long bull market amazes me. Not sure how long it will go, but it seems that it can still go on.

Oof. Now you're scaring me. Hey @Kid, did you trick me into being the 666th post?! :(!
No. I wasn't aware of 666, wouldn't even think of it. So no worries :), it was a coincidence.
 

James Fend

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Whenever someone is worried about a recession, I tell them that it’s probably best to change up the way that their portfolio is operating. It’s better to move to a more balanced approach, while most of the time, I’m really heavy on stocks, when I have recession fears, I switch to a

30% stock index
30% bond index
10% commodities index
15% real estate index ETF
15% government treasuries.

This allows you to still get some market exposure but significantly reduce risk and market beta will also be smaller,
So am I missing something here? Like @PizzaOnTheRoof - my common sense logic would say to become as liquid in cash as possible? So stocks, etc. pretty much everything except maybe things tied in real estate would be best liquidated into cash? And to NOT go into real estate for cash flow?

Meaning... in a downturn. All boats lower when the tide lowers. So by "not lowering" you are essentially winning.. because you are now actually higher up and the actual monetary gains are hidden in the backend. In addition, your dollar now has twice (hypothetically) the spending power to scoop up cheap assets in desperation to liquidate or can no longer afford to not liquidate. So your gains are exponentially increased in the backend with delayed purchasing power... AND..

Since cash is king and you can buy without hassle, you can buy near bottom range prices quickly and effectively. And as things eventually go back up.. boom.

Similar to crypto bear market. This has always confused me about why someone would want to convert to Bitcoin when the entire crypto market goes down instead of some fiat. Many people do it, not sure why.. I go into fiat and buy 4-5x more Bitcoin than the 1.5x by converting. Plus, isn't the point of Bitcoin to actually have spending power? Currently, the only way to spend Bitcoin is to convert to fiat then spend fiat until it evolves otherwise.. So no matter how bull'ish you are on the actual tech behind Bitcoin, you can't ignore the game field you're playing in, and it's best just to play it. Similar to the "system" of slowlaners complaining and conceding to the system, while fastlaners don't buck the system but play smartly along with it in a different way.

My logic is just confused, maybe someone can enlighten my shortcomings in sight.

Oppose to staying in something, going down, waiting it out, rising back up.. by not winning, you are actually losing in this circumstance.
 
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ADayattheRoxbury

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So very diversified approach. Thank you for writing.
This long bull market amazes me. Not sure how long it will go, but it seems that it can still go on.


No. I wasn't aware of 666, wouldn't even think of it. So no worries :), it was a coincidence.
Haha I was just teasing! The thing is, when I think there’s gonna be a crash, I switch to cash and wait. In 2007-2008 I waited on the sidelines, in 2010 I bought everything in sight. It made me a fantastic return on my investment.

Waiting out can be difficult if you’re not sure when the crash will occur however.
 

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MJ DeMarco

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Well I picked a bad time to sell SPX calls. Anyhow, I'm still on the record as saying that there will be no trade deal.
 

socaldude

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Well I picked a bad time to sell SPX calls. Anyhow, I'm still on the record as saying that there will be no trade deal.
its pretty surprising how the market still reacts to trumps positive trade talk tweets . theres no way china wants a deal especially with the political circus and drama of impeachment. more stalling i guess with canceled trade talks, postponed tariffs, some tweets here and there etc. my guess is trump is trying to keep the market flat/up up to the 2020 elections. i did load up on some vix calls for the month with todays rally just as a speculative bet.
 

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28024

Another Trump tweet.

Lackluster trade deal or trade truce?

I'm guessing Monday is gonna be another rally.
 

MJ DeMarco

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View attachment 28024

Another Trump tweet.

Lackluster trade deal or trade truce?

I'm guessing Monday is gonna be another rally.
As far as I know, the "deal" isn't in writing. I won't believe it until it's on paper and released publicly.
 
OP
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JScott

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View attachment 28024

Another Trump tweet.

Lackluster trade deal or trade truce?

I'm guessing Monday is gonna be another rally.
Wow, this sounds almost as promising as the denuclearization agreement we came to with North Korea last year! ;)

Seriously though, if we've learned anything from this administration, it's that until it's in writing, it's probably nothing more than attempted manipulation-of-sentiment-through-tweet...
 
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socaldude

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As far as I know, the "deal" isn't in writing. I won't believe it until it's on paper and released publicly.
It was a pinky promise trade agreement. ;)

Considering most foreign politician are more Machiavellian in style than most people think it's totally a possibility it's just more stalling and acting "positively" and "cooperatively".
 

ADayattheRoxbury

Contributor
Mar 23, 2019
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Well I picked a bad time to sell SPX calls. Anyhow, I'm still on the record as saying that there will be no trade deal.
And I think there shouldn't be! Until China actually starts to play ball in a meaningful way!!! They made their own Google, Uber, Amazon, etc. And it is based off of American Ideas, yet those companies make NONE of the profit. It's unfair, to say the least.
 
OP
OP
JScott

JScott

Legendary Contributor
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FASTLANE INSIDER
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Aug 24, 2007
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Wow, this sounds almost as promising as the denuclearization agreement we came to with North Korea last year! ;)

Seriously though, if we've learned anything from this administration, it's that until it's in writing, it's probably nothing more than attempted manipulation-of-sentiment-through-tweet...
I figured it would be a couple weeks before I would follow-up this post with an "I told you so..."

Turns out it didn't take nearly that long...it appears there's not yet any agreement:

 

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