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garyfritz

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I believe there are some rules for Discretionary trading, but they just can't write it down?
Not if they don't consciously know what all the rules ARE!

Trading is a very complex process. Very seldom can a successful discretionary approach be described in a few simple rules. I can't think of a good example that's as complex...

Let's say you have kids. Somebody asks you "how do you raise kids?" And you say "Love them, feed them well, make sure they get lots of sleep." (A, B, and C. :)) Then the kid gets sick. "Oh, well then you take them to the doctor." Then the kid gets in trouble at school. "Oh, you need to go talk to the teacher." On and on. There are a thousand situations you didn't think to list ahead of time, but you just respond to them when they happen. Discretionary trading is usually like that. You just do the "right thing" in each situation, but you don't know what the "right thing" is unless you've developed the skill.

garyfritz, according to your experience is there such thing a robot that can make money easily and consistently?
You better believe it. That 30% gain I mentioned earlier? That's a bot. Not in the MT4 EA sense -- I don't trust MT4 with my money -- but I programmed the logic into Tradestation and it calls the signals. I enter the orders manually but the bot could be running all the orders automatically if I trusted it. It's making all the trading decisions.

I guess I wouldn't say it's "easy." I've put many, many, many, MANY hours into learning what I'm doing. Anybody who develops a successful and stable, long-lasting bot has done the same. Most people aren't going to give that away for free. Most of them won't even sell it, except for big $$. If somebody develops a system that makes $1000 a week, do you think they're going to sell it for $99? Of course not. So most (not all) of the EAs you see for sale are poorly-designed garbage.

So if you're asking, "do successful robots exist?" the answer is "yes, absolutely." If you're asking "can I get one for free or cheap?" the answer is "probably not."

If you're on the Fastlane forum, hopefully you have some energy, discipline, and ambition. If so, and if you want to learn how to get or build a successful EA, go hang out at stevehopwoodforex.com • Index page for a while. That's a hotbed of trading ideas and EA/indicator development. If you want to learn, that's one of the best places to start.
 

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Arturo-Jay

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I'll have to catch myself up on this thread...
Right now I'm throwing together my trading "stake" which I'll trade my manual system that has 10 months of live testing, and 5 of it is on myfxbook.com

https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/jaysaccount/364521

I'm pretty comfortable trading in this style on a large account, or I can ratchet up my risk a little more on a smaller sized account and live off doing this (I traded live, full time before, went bust due to under-capitalization and taking too much risk). This is a much better plan than working my 2 jobs at 16 hours a day..12$ & 10$ an hour, and spinning my wheels in the mud without an education or any trade skills (not an option for me to pursue at this point). Then I can market my trading and offer managed accounts in the far future.
But till then, 6 more months or more of saving...
 

Arturo-Jay

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Gary - speaking of "systems"...

I have a friend who took 4k to 150k+ and stopped. Had no system. Sheer luck and some technical chart reading plus massive leverage, oh and the fact that he did not need the money, nor was it his goal at all. Sometimes, no matter how prepared we are, we fail.
If you asked him to package his style up and sell it, it wouldn't even be possible.

But for most people that is never going to work.
 

garyfritz

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Nice results in myfxbook, A-J!

If your friend took 4k to 150k, with no system and massive leverage, I'd say he's got more luck than 3 or 4 lottery winners combined!
 

Arturo-Jay

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Nice results in myfxbook, A-J!

If your friend took 4k to 150k, with no system and massive leverage, I'd say he's got more luck than 3 or 4 lottery winners combined!

Yeah he did some stupid things which should have cost him everything, but he got lucky. Too many stories to retell right now lol. Some of the stories include GM 2 days prior to BK and him doubling his stack early on to 30k...and using 1:200 leverage in FX when that use to be available. Trading futures back when margins were fairly low and we had wide ranging days up to 1000 points on the mini dow.... He admits he couldn't do it again, but I'm sure he makes a few thousand here and there easily now off his large account. We haven't talked much lately.


Thanks, my FXbook is just getting started I guess...Hopefully I can take it full time in the future, make a small living doing it and then branch into managed accounts with a PAMM system. I'm getting my series 65 in December (so long as I pass!)
 

odihost

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garyfritz I believe everything can be programmed as long as we have the rules. It's like programming a chess program. We need to transform our instinct into programming language. I say this because I'm a programmer. I think you can also teach robot how to ride bicycle, even though we didn't think when riding bicycle. That's the beauty of our brain. E.g the robot can calculate if he is going to fall in one side and move his body to another side.
 

garyfritz

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garyfritz I believe everything can be programmed as long as we have the rules.
Are you reading my posts?? The problem is that most discretionary programmers don't really know what all their rules ARE, and finding all those rules is extremely difficult or impossible.

Look, I've DONE this dozens of times. I have a friend who's done it a lot more than I have. I've never done it successfully, and he's had maybe one or two cases that they could get the rules working profitably, but NEVER as profitably as the trader.

If you're so sure it can be done, go ahead and do it.

It's like programming a chess program. We need to transform our instinct into programming language. I say this because I'm a programmer.
Uh-huh. I'm a programmer too. I've followed Artificial Intelligence developments for almost 40 years. Did you know that back in the 50's, they figured they'd have computers playing at grandmaster level within a year or two? It took just a teensy bit longer than they expected -- because they went into the project looking at it like you are. "We just need to program our instincts." It wasn't quite as easy as they -- or you -- expected.

They finally did get a computer to beat grandmasters, but it was with brute force. It's like they were trying to kill flies. The grandmaster used a flyswatter and dispatched the fly with little fuss or effort. The computer used 20 sticks of dynamite. Both killed the fly, but the computer's approach was somewhat less elegant.

I'm not saying you have to duplicate the human thought / instinct process (which is good, since you probably can't). Airplanes fly even though they don't flap their wings like birds. Airplanes are arguably superior to birds in most ways because they fly faster and carry more. So a different approach is fine.

But finding that different approach may take a very long time. It is NOT as simple as you think.
 

^eagle^

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Hi guys. been a while. Had some ups and downs but have been making steady progress now for a few months. had to withdraw my risk capital due to some unforeseen circumstances. Got a small sum now in an offshore account. Couldnt take FIFO and 50:1 leverage anymore. I'm starting to make money again. Out of thin air! Just like the central banks. LOL Made 25% today after a few weeks of BE trades and a couple of mishaps which cost me 10%. If I had more time I could do better. It will come. Tenacious as a tiger. That's me.
\
 

garyfritz

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25% in a day, that's awesome! I'm up 25% in the last several MONTHS.

How / where did you open an offshore account? I thought almost nobody would open accounts for US citizens, or for offshore companies owned / controlled by US citizens. I think FinFX may still be accepting us poor USians but who knows how long before the long arm of Uncle Sam cracks down on them.
 

^eagle^

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Yeah I am keeping quiet About this one. I don't want anyone to know about this account. It took a little searching but they are out there. I haven't tried a withdraw yet for this one. But I haven't heard anyone complain about withdraws in the reviews. I researched and watched this company for a couple of months before opening a small account.

I found them here. 100 Forex Brokers
 

odihost

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Hi Guys, I'm currently using exness.com. Is that safe? I was just wondering what will happen if that company or other forex broker goes bankrupt. What happen with our money?
 

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The-J

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I have a question.

I know a little about forex trading. But if you don't do it using a value investing approach (buy and hold based on market conditions) then it just seems like gambling to me. For example, forex day trading just seems silly to me (as with all day trading).

Is it more than just gambling? Is it like being a good pok3r player, where it's no longer gambling but a game of skill? Or is there some sort of code, or codes that you can kind of figure out, tracking patterns and knowing when to buy and sell?

I'm ignorant in the subject.

EDIT: This one question led to hours of research. Lol.

The answer I came up with is: it's more like professional pok3r. You play the probabilities in your favor. You learn the game, build hypothesis models, test them and if they work, keep them until they don't work. It's a low control game but not necessarily 'risky' if oyu know what you're doing.

If you let emotion get in the way, you will surely lose. If you think you're smart and let ego get in the way, you will surely lose. Play as close to the numbers as possible and if your numbers suck, have the courage to know that they suck and change them. "Numbers" refers both to amounts and strategies, here. If you continue trying new strategies, you will find one that works.

It's not entrepreneurial but if done right, it can be free money.

I'm considering trying day-trading, but I have a feeling it will just end up being a money chasing activity that distracts me from my real business.
 

^eagle^

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I have a question.

I know a little about forex trading. But if you don't do it using a value investing approach (buy and hold based on market conditions) then it just seems like gambling to me. For example, forex day trading just seems silly to me (as with all day trading).

Is it more than just gambling? Is it like being a good pok3r player, where it's no longer gambling but a game of skill? Or is there some sort of code, or codes that you can kind of figure out, tracking patterns and knowing when to buy and sell?

I'm ignorant in the subject.

EDIT: This one question led to hours of research. Lol.

The answer I came up with is: it's more like professional pok3r. You play the probabilities in your favor. You learn the game, build hypothesis models, test them and if they work, keep them until they don't work. It's a low control game but not necessarily 'risky' if oyu know what you're doing.

If you let emotion get in the way, you will surely lose. If you think you're smart and let ego get in the way, you will surely lose. Play as close to the numbers as possible and if your numbers suck, have the courage to know that they suck and change them. "Numbers" refers both to amounts and strategies, here. If you continue trying new strategies, you will find one that works.

It's not entrepreneurial but if done right, it can be free money.

I'm considering trying day-trading, but I have a feeling it will just end up being a money chasing activity that distracts me from my real business.
I have been studying forex for four years now. I didn't know anything about it when I first started. Funny thing is that is when I made the most money. After years of trial and error I finally found a method that works for me. It has taken me several years to get a hold of my emotions.

You are correct in your assumptions. One of the biggest reasons I couldn't get ahead is that I couldn't find a mentor who could show me the ropes. And it took a long time to single out the traders who were making money vs. the ones that were just blowing smoke to get attention in the forums. Trading is easy. Controlling your emotions is the hard part. Building a solid set of rules is the easy part. Following those rules is the hard part. And yes it takes a lot of time to be a trader. I trade just one pair and it takes up quite a bit of my spare time. If I went full time I doubt I could follow more than four or five pairs or commodities.

After going down a few rabbit holes I have developed an approach to trading that fits me. Each person will develop his own style based on who that person followed or learned from. My style is a higher risk but higher reward type that I couldn't write down in a page or two. Nor could it be coded into an EA although I use different EAs (robots) to complete repetive tasks and reduce error. I lost more money to errors than actual losing trades.

If you fear that it will take away from your business then do not trade. Or find someone one who is willing to trade for you. Get a two year track record from someone before you do that though. The market has a lot of ways to make people look great one month and foolish the next! I'm getting there and will be one of those who pull money out of the market consistenently. But not yet there.
 

garyfritz

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The answer I came up with is: it's more like professional pok3r. You play the probabilities in your favor. You learn the game, build hypothesis models, test them and if they work, keep them until they don't work. It's a low control game but not necessarily 'risky' if oyu know what you're doing.
That's fairly accurate.

If you let emotion get in the way, you will surely lose. If you think you're smart and let ego get in the way, you will surely lose.
Also true. Discipline and emotional control are essential for long-term success.

It's not entrepreneurial but if done right, it can be free money.
That "free" money can be incredibly expensive!

Trading is not something you do on a lark, and the money pours in. This is no neighborhood pick-up game -- you're playing against the big boys, the best on the planet. The saving grace is that there are many nooks and crannies of opportunity where the big players don't bother to go. I use the analogy of the jungle: if you try to compete head-on with the lions and tigers, you'll get eaten. But there are plenty of ants and dung beetles who make a very comfortable living on the floor of the jungle, and the lions don't even know they're there. You just have to be careful not to get stepped on.

Nobody should attempt trading unless they have a passion for it. It will almost certainly take you a long time to find your niche and develop the skills it takes to succeed. Even then it's damn challenging. I've been at this on & off for 14 years. I've had times of fantastic success -- like the time I took a $27k account to $188k in 6 months, that was fun!! -- and times of really painful failure. It's a growing process.

And BTW it can be entrepreneurial. Get good enough at it and you can manage other people's money, and get a percentage of the profits you produce. That brings the large-number multiplier into effect so you can create some really incredible income.

BTW I think I'll do my B&P presentation on trading, J -- you can pick my brain then if you want. :)
 
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CarrieW

CarrieW

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And I will be there to pick your brain too. Just got the last ticket today!!
 

The-J

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I decided to give up the trading idea. I have the ability to provide a $5k account but I know that it can all be gone within a few weeks if I screw up. Plus, that's money I can't afford to kiss good bye. If it was, then I might go into it.
 
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CarrieW

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trading is definately not for everyone thats for sure!

you should never ever trade with money that you cant afford to lose. when I deposit money into my trading account for me it is considered like a purchase. If I never see it again thats not going to effect my day. that allows me to keep my emotions in check (ideally lol)

and I could trade for like ever with 5k. you can manage your money to such a degree to minimize risk in your trading to allow you to withstand even major screw ups and not blow up your account!

if you are interested in trading you should persue it. dont let the money stop you. theres pleanty you can learn about before you even risk a dime! (money management leaps to mind ;) ) and there are lots of other things that you can trade once you learn how, it doesnt have to be forex.

the reason I personally chose forex is the ability to do a lot with a little $.

I havent spent/invested even close to that and I have definately been at this for longer then a few weeks...

I love trading tho so I wont stop.

I wont stop learning untill I stop breathing ;)
 

^eagle^

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How's everyone's trading going? I see some of you are going to Beer and pancakes as well. Hope your trading paid for it.

I made some serious inroads and insights on my trading. Looking forward to 2013. Its going to be a banner year at the ^eagle^ manor.
 

Denim Chicken

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Probably going to stir up some stuff here but is it just me or is trading a bunch of BS and pretty much gambling with a whole bunch of technical nonsense? Every time I look into technical analysis that's what comes to mind haha
 

^eagle^

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Probably going to stir up some stuff here but is it just me or is trading a bunch of BS and pretty much gambling with a whole bunch of technical nonsense? Every time I look into technical analysis that's what comes to mind haha
It's like gambling in that there is always a chance to lose. It's about finding an edge. And I agree. Most trading styles are Tech Heavy which leads me to believe that the Tech side of things is somewhat correct but flawed. without an understand of How the market operates and why it goes up and down you are destined to lose.
 

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Jonleehacker

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Probably going to stir up some stuff here but is it just me or is trading a bunch of BS and pretty much gambling with a whole bunch of technical nonsense? Every time I look into technical analysis that's what comes to mind haha
You're right, it's EXACTLY like gambling, just like running the casino at Caesar's Palace is gambling ;)
 

Arturo-Jay

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This is not gambling for me:

JaysAccount System | Myfxbook


And now that I'm only working part time while going to school part time, that little bit of income from my trading business really helps me a lot. I'm pursuing an accounting degree after not being in school for 6 years. I'm now 24 and I was terminated at my full time, which gave me the benefits of being a dislocated worker. Now I have time to breathe, relax, and get my life together. Get my education and work on my own business...and should my own business fail, I will have my accounting degree to fall back on.

It took me about 4 years to be consistent with my trading.


How about that EURO last week!? Hope you guys cleaned up a lot better than myself...
Made some profit but nearly as much as I would have liked, that's for sure.

Last week I was mentoring an aspiring trader, I told him that even good traders can be wrong on trades and STILL make money. If you can't be wrong 10 times in a row, and your account is blown, you are gambling. Sometimes gambling pays off, many times it doesn't.
 

Arturo-Jay

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Hah! Congrats Carrie! I'll see you there...
...Is there an FX traders meetup or something? I've always wanted to network with real traders. I've considered the forex meetups in like Vegas or something where everyone meets up and there's different speakers etc.
 

garyfritz

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A-J, are you coming to B&P? I'd love to network with you and find out how you created those trading results! I've been trading for years but I've never gotten results like that. Nice job!
 
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CarrieW

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the b&p is a meetup for people from the board. from all areas. but omg theres a forex traders meetup???!!!??

I had planned on attending this year. I even bought a ticket. but an unforseen famaily emergency forced me to change my plans...

I would love to hear more about this forex/traders meetup. if there isnt one there should be! does anyone know any specifics about this?
 

^eagle^

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...Is there an FX traders meetup or something? I've always wanted to network with real traders. I've considered the forex meetups in like Vegas or something where everyone meets up and there's different speakers etc.

Here at the fast lane there only about four or five of us that trade forex. I have a family and still work full time but manage pull some good gains out of the market consistently. had go over seas though. Can't stand FIFO.

You got some great gains! Who have you learned from? Two I like to follow are Greg Michaelowski from FXDD and Sam seiden's principles.

Just took a hit last night. Got sucked in on the initial move up. Almost hit the gap trade from the weekend came up a pip short on TP and ended up BE. The fakeout hit me harder than I would have liked . wasn't paying attention and took a bigger loss than planned. Nothing I can't recover from in a day or three though. Thing was it was avoidable. I had a few beers talking to my buddy and didn't check ALL my boxes before pulling the trigger. (slaps hand)

Then another BE on the dip down for the correction. Hit a small rally wave and rode for another BE. So far a lackluster day. Volatility is down. Looks to be doing back to 1.33 for now. Barrier talk at 1.3450 I believe so Another pop up this week is in order. Benny printing money like its newspaper. soon to be toilet paper.
 

garyfritz

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FinFx still takes US clients, and they're supposed to be decent brokers. That's almost the only one that's left. eagle, are you trading at FinFx or similar, or did you open an overseas corporation, or...?
 

Arturo-Jay

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FinFx still takes US clients, and they're supposed to be decent brokers. That's almost the only one that's left. eagle, are you trading at FinFx or similar, or did you open an overseas corporation, or...?

Hehehe, I have 2 connections at 2 different brokers that are overseas. They both accept US clients and allow full 400x leverage, PAMM accounts, hedging, and all things banned here by the CFTC. Now I could just be lying for entertainment purposes or I could be serious. Besides, I would never condone doing anything illegal :eusa_naughty: . Heck, I always pay my taxes...even if they are 2 years late!

The rabbit hole always goes deeper and in the end business is business and these brokers want our money. Just saying. And the websites of non-us brokers are always worded in a way to stay on the SAFE side. Dig deep to find the solution.
------

I'm long Eur...Kind of flip flopped a few times, but I'm pretty firm that we have some short term support.
And it wouldn't be impossible to be taken down a few pips either since we are consolidating after that massive move from last week. What a great ride that was... I do see 1.35 in the cards, just not sure when.

:thumbsup:
 

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