The Active Forex Traders Discussion

[eqttrdr]

just know that everyone is a genius in a bull market

 

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[CarrieW]

no one else is still kicking? anyone?

 

[ddinnov]

Active trader here. Not full time but got a decent chunk of powder in my spread betting account. My edge is still work in progress, I've actually struggled with pure price action + S/R as I found it too discretionary and I needed some "if x + y happens then do z". I'm settling into a semi-discretionary price action approach based around some EMAs (6/25/50/150/365) and how they highlight levels and areas that can be investigated for more confluence/story etc. I'm also interested in learning more about Elliot wave and fundamentals and longer term trend trading.

In 4 years I've learnt (the hard way) about the importance of stress free trading, not trying to force anything and rigidly sticking to rules and a plan. I've also learnt that edge-wise what works for someone is as individual as their DNA. With this in mind I've been trialling and erroring and working on my own unique edge that works for me. I've got it to an OK level of consistency (1-2R/week trading 4h charts around a 9-5 job) but am working on improving win rate and taking fewer trades. It's just a matter of time now.

In a highly uncertain area there are 2 things I am certain of:

1. I will never experience (another) margin call
2. I will never break money management

I measure my compliance (trades that follow rules/ plan) as a metric and it's more important than profit, win rate, % gain and R multiple distribution.

Look forward to talking with other traders. Oh and 2 other rules I have that have made trading life easier and less stressful:

1. Do not post open trade ideas up on the Internet
2. Do not engage in any drama of any sort for any reason.

 

[Shuffle]

Hi, I'm still actively trading forex and find that I love it even more!

Learned a lot (should always be the case till you die!) since the last time I've been here. Still on price action but with volume added in. Have to say that volume and PA go hand in hand in my humble opinion, as I am constantly learning. Been reading a lot about Wyckoff and Jesse Livermore also. Learned how to scalp (almost the same as longer TF trading in my opinion) but like someone said, it's better to focus on stress free trading. Scalping just showed me that you literally do wait for 2-3 perfect setups (at least with my method) while watching the screen 24/5, and that just isn't stress free unless someone can enlighten me to a better methodology. Just had to try and learn it myself before arguing against it you know?

I'm still as curious what other traders in here do in general? Last I saw was someone who was using renko charts. I just feel uncomfortable not seeing the price action haha.

I do wish active traders would talk more here as opposed to trading forums because the mindset is a tad different here. I want to start a businses with trading, but I first have to know the skill in order to employ it with 100% confidence. A lot of people in trading forums like to focus on trading as a side job or have just enough funds to give themselves paycheck to paycheck, which although rids your life of a boss, does not grant you wealth in the sense that this forum envisions. This is of course my opinion and is always open to other thoughts!

Been thinking about looking into Bitcoins too but not fond of picking out the top just yet as it seems like it's trucking through. Seems like another fiat currency unless it's backed by something physical...One could argue gold isn't either but the "free markets" have stuck with and gone back to gold countless times throughout history. That doesn't mean you can't make money off of bitcoins now though so forgive my ignorance on the topic. I just started to look into it If bitcoins(or any other coins for that matter) succeed as the new "monetary system", it could go on for quite some time just as any other fiat currency has. Time's are getting interesting for our views of MONEY AND WEALTH

 

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[tafy]

Seems like another fiat currency unless it's backed by something physical

Its not fiat because nobody can just print millions of bitcoins, its backed by nothing just like every other currency

 

[Shuffle]

Its not fiat because nobody can just print millions of bitcoins, its backed by nothing just like every other currency

Isn't it a cause for concern if it's backed by nothing? Also Fiat currency doesn't mean that its being printed in the trillions, just means it's legal tender and holds no "intrinsic" value if I'm not mistaken. More based on faith that the world will accept it as a means of "trade" (just like our dollar). Although since it also means that it doesn't have to be backed by anything but "faith", governments would of course print paper currencies to hell lmao. I would still call it a fiat currency since it's backed by "faith", but I read that the more is mined, the more limited it becomes?

This could definitely take over as long as the above is true and if the worlds market accepts it, which might take A WHILE. Also since we're in the "information" era with everything being tech, sounds like a very interesting time to be living in don't you think? Still reading on it

Are you invested in any sort of "coins"? I signed up on some websites to look at the charts. Practically zoomed right through the prices the past few months.

 

[ddinnov]

watching the screen 24/5, and that just isn't stress free unless someone can enlighten me to a better methodology. Just had to try and learn it myself before arguing against it you know?

I'm still as curious what other traders in here do in general? Last I saw was someone who was using renko charts. I just feel uncomfortable not seeing the price action haha.

I'm refining my strategy to try and take 1-3 trades a week on 4h/daily charts. I use PA based around a few MAs/fibs/chart patterns. I'm going into ways of finding low risk and high reward setups with the potential to ride and add to winners for as long as they will go. I have a bit of a short term mentality and don't like to hold them for too long so I'm looking at medium term mini-trends that last a few days/weeks at the most. I'm getting quite interested in Elliot wave for this as well as other trend trading methods.

Ideally I'd like a few systems (at least 3), one being the one I have now (PA around base MA's), a longer term position trading strategy and a short term scalping for when i feel like doing that. At the same time I have no intention of having to sit in front of a screen 10 hours/day getting stressed out and over trading...

Trading a £1M account with an average 5-10% monthly gain from 1-3 trades a week - that would be nice.

 

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[Shuffle]

I'm refining my strategy to try and take 1-3 trades a week on 4h/daily charts. I use PA based around a few MAs/fibs/chart patterns. I'm going into ways of finding low risk and high reward setups with the potential to ride and add to winners for as long as they will go. I have a bit of a short term mentality and don't like to hold them for too long so I'm looking at medium term mini-trends that last a few days/weeks at the most. I'm getting quite interested in Elliot wave for this as well as other trend trading methods.

Ideally I'd like a few systems (at least 3), one being the one I have now (PA around base MA's), a longer term position trading strategy and a short term scalping for when i feel like doing that. At the same time I have no intention of having to sit in front of a screen 10 hours/day getting stressed out and over trading...

Trading a £1M account with an average 5-10% monthly gain from 1-3 trades a week - that would be nice.

Same, I'm on the Daily/4HR/1HR with PA and Volume and also swing trade for the majority of the time. Longest I've held something was with the Yen pairs when it just went up like mad...that was about 3-4 months. I used to use 200 EMA's but after a while just took em off.

Ha, wouldnt that be nice just taking a few trades after looking at the screen for a few min. How's the Elliot Wave workin out for you? I used to look at too.

 

[tafy]

Isn't it a cause for concern if it's backed by nothing? Also Fiat currency doesn't mean that its being printed in the trillions, just means it's legal tender and holds no "intrinsic" value if I'm not mistaken. More based on faith that the world will accept it as a means of "trade" (just like our dollar). Although since it also means that it doesn't have to be backed by anything but "faith", governments would of course print paper currencies to hell lmao. I would still call it a fiat currency since it's backed by "faith", but I read that the more is mined, the more limited it becomes?

Bitcoins have the advantage of being a crypto currency, you can take it anywhere in the world with you. No customs can stop you taking your fortune with you while fleeing the bankrupt state that just put very restrictive capital controls on the border (hypothetical)

Gold is great store of value also but not easily movable like bitcoins. I wish I was into bitcoins last year when it was like $50 a piece

 

[Shuffle]

Bitcoins have the advantage of being a crypto currency, you can take it anywhere in the world with you. No customs can stop you taking your fortune with you while fleeing the bankrupt state that just put very restrictive capital controls on the border (hypothetical)

Gold is great store of value also but not easily movable like bitcoins. I wish I was into bitcoins last year when it was like $50 a piece

Yea its up to the "free markets" to accept it as the base in place of the dollar or gold if it's going to go anywhere. Definitely easy to move, nobody wants to drag around a wad of gold haha. Have you seen gold cards that fit into your wallet before? You can split them as you would anything else. They're called Combibars if I'm not mistaken.

Tell me about it if we got in at $50 we'd all be laughing from the top of our mansions...but then again "everyone's a genius in a bull market" hahaha. Not even last year, last month alone would have been nice too hahaha.

One thing I know for sure is currency isn't going to disappear, even if a particular paper currency does. I just read certain brokers provide bitcoin feeds but not in the US :T Do you still trade?

 

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[tafy]

I haven't traded since i blew my account just before the summer, 3rd margin call over 4 years. My first account was the best where I went from 1000 to 3500 in 2 months then I do what I always do and try to catch a falling knife on a massive crash!

1st account gbp/yen crash
2nd Same as above!
3rd Gold crash

If there is no crazy crash then I do alright, my trading is shit really, i short tops and buy lows except they turn out to be the start of a massive bull run or a huge crash.

Sooo yeah I may start another account but not sure if I learned my lesson tbh

 

[Shuffle]

I haven't traded since i blew my account just before the summer, 3rd margin call over 4 years. My first account was the best where I went from 1000 to 3500 in 2 months then I do what I always do and try to catch a falling knife on a massive crash!

1st account gbp/yen crash
2nd Same as above!
3rd Gold crash

If there is no crazy crash then I do alright, my trading is shit really, i short tops and buy lows except they turn out to be the start of a massive bull run or a huge crash.

Sooo yeah I may start another account but not sure if I learned my lesson tbh

Hey man, you probably know a lot more than I do having traded 4 yrs. Each try might refine your discipline even more. What was your methodology before? (TF, setups, etc.) It also sounds like you risk a lot and crashes really does a number on you.

 

[tafy]

Hey man, you probably know a lot more than I do having traded 4 yrs. Each try might refine your discipline even more. What was your methodology before? (TF, setups, etc.) It also sounds like you risk a lot and crashes really does a number on you.

I tried a lot of stuff but in the end I just used trend lines on naked graphs, money management is not my strong point so I over leverage like crazy. I know a bit but not a lot, i need to take it easy and not risk too much on 1 trade. I also do revenge trades and they never work out well. I build a few trading robots that would buy and sell for me but couldnt get it profitable.

 

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[Shuffle]

Did you trade PA on high time frames? I mean, high leverage is of course risky, but it doesn't mean you can't win doing that. Perhaps it might be the consistency of your trades? Low risk would give more room for hiccups and high risk wouldn't so consistency would be a huge deal even if the R:R isnt that high. What do you think?

Revenge trading hahaha...almost got into it myself. I have a few dry erase boards with my rules and a clear one for daily notes to keep myself from doing certain things. The best advice I ever got trading was "treat it as a business".

Let us know if you start again

 

[garyfritz]

money management is not my strong point so I over leverage like crazy. I know a bit but not a lot, i need to take it easy and not risk too much on 1 trade.

Bingo. If you're blowing up accounts, you're risking WAY too much. You need a defined exit for your trade where you will bail out NO MATTER WHAT. Then you say "how much am I willing to risk on this trade?" and you size your trade accordingly. E.g. say you decide to risk 2% per trade. If you have a $10k account, 2% is $200. Say your trade has a 50 pip stoploss. Risk 0.4 lots on that trade, and if it hits the SL you will have lost 2% on that trade.

You probably won't triple your account in 2 months like you did before, but you won't blow it up either. Survival is the name of this game. I'd bet that when you blew your accounts, you didn't limit your risk at all. You let a few trades get away from you and eat up a huge portion of your account. That's not treating it like a business -- that's just gambling with lousy odds.

So limiting your risk is KEY. If you don't control your risk, your account will DIE.

Now you have to decide how much to risk. Most people risk way too much on each trade. It's actually possible to turn a winning strategy into a loser just by risking too much. Extreme example: flip a coin, heads you win $2, tails you win $1. That's a GREAT winning strategy -- on average you'll win $0.50 on each flip. But risk 100% on each flip, and you go bust on the first tails. It turns out you can mathematically analyze a series of trades to determine the risk level that will give you the MAXIMUM return over the long haul. For this $2/$1 game, the optimal level is to risk 25% on each flip. If you risk less than 25% OR IF YOU RISK MORE than 25%, you'll make less profit. Risking more than 2x the optimal level is GUARANTEED to lose 100% of your account.

Risking at that "optimal" level (called the Kelly value) gets you the most profit over time, but you'll have to sit through horrific drawdowns, like 90-95%. Sane traders trade at a fraction of that Kelly level, e.g. 10% of Kelly (risk 2.5% per trade). 25%-50% of Kelly is VERY aggressive. You'll make a lot more money but your drawdowns will be a LOT deeper.

Take a look at your trade history for your strategy. Calculate the average trade size (wins & losses) and the average win size, in pips. AverageTrade / AverageWin gives a very good approximation of the Kelly value. In the coin flip example, the average trade is $0.50, and the average win is $2. $0.50/$2 = 0.25 = 25%, so 25% is the "optimal" (with huge drawdowns) risk level. Trade at 1/10 - 1/2 of that level -- containing the risk on each trade so you never lose more than 2.5% - 12.5% -- and you'll be just about guaranteed not to blow the account.

I recommend you knock out an Excel spreadsheet simulating a couple hundred trades, and prove to yourself how this works. It'll be a lot easier to do the right thing if you really believe it.

 

[tafy]

Gary,

Thanks for replying but the problem is I know this stuff... Its down to character.

If I had 1 million forex account I would trade like this, but with 1000 dollars then its peanuts. im not gonna trade for $10 win (1%) like all the experts advise. I should but I cant... the gambler inside maybe.

So I know the problem is im going too risky because 1% of not much is not worth it. looking at my trades it seems that I am going for 5-10% risky bets. $50 - $100 dollars is more the ballgame where its worth my time. I also have bad habits of letting losers run hoping they come back (this is the true killer)

I only put in money that I can lose and doesn't affect me financially.

What my main interest is, is making a forex robot, done a few and 1 I worked on for weeks but wasnt profitable

Martingale was very interesting too as my account is small and can get crazy growth until the day comes where it kills your account, that day could be the day after you start or weeks away after you tripled your account.

If I start again we should get a little sub forum going, maybe on the inside tho!

 

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[ddinnov]

How's the Elliot Wave workin out for you? I used to look at too.

It's very complicated - much more than I thought, will take time to learn and digest it. I'm focused on fastlane IM biz at the mo so my learning time is all taken up with that right now.

Gary,

Thanks for replying but the problem is I know this stuff... Its down to character.

If I had 1 million forex account I would trade like this, but with 1000 dollars then its peanuts. im not gonna trade for $10 win (1%) like all the experts advise. I should but I cant... the gambler inside maybe.

So I know the problem is im going too risky because 1% of not much is not worth it. looking at my trades it seems that I am going for 5-10% risky bets. $50 - $100 dollars is more the ballgame where its worth my time. I also have bad habits of letting losers run hoping they come back (this is the true killer)

I only put in money that I can lose and doesn't affect me financially.

What my main interest is, is making a forex robot, done a few and 1 I worked on for weeks but wasnt profitable

Martingale was very interesting too as my account is small and can get crazy growth until the day comes where it kills your account, that day could be the day after you start or weeks away after you tripled your account.

If I start again we should get a little sub forum going, maybe on the inside tho!

I'd be up for a sub forum - can we post up charts and stuff?

Sounds like you know what you have to do but have trouble actually doing it. I funded a big account so the idea of breaking money management is completely unacceptable.

If anyone's interested I'm looking for case studies for my trading discipline info product *cough*

 

[garyfritz]

As long as you treat the account like it's throwaway money, and you don't care if you lose, then guess what? You'll lose.

Winning consistently in forex is HARD. It takes proper habits and discipline. Even with a winning strategy -- which is hard to come by in itself -- you'll lose if you keep doing what you're doing. You're just gambling and throwing away your money, and forming bad habits while you do it. Until you DECIDE to fix your bad habits and develop some discipline, until you suppress your inner gambler and start acting like a businessman, you'll keep losing.

Think of any business you tried to start. If you said "Yeah, if I had $1M sunk into this, I'd treat it seriously, but since I've only invested $1k in it, it's not worth my time to make small profits, so I won't pay attention to expenses" &etc, then your business would fail. It would be a waste of your time and money to start a business with an attitude like that. The same is true with trading.

It's your decision. You need to decide if you want to get serious about this and treat it like a business, or if you'd rather just keep playing with it and blowing up accounts.

Discipline is absolutely crucial in trading. Absolutely crucial. You CANNOT succeed in trading (or most other businesses) until you learn discipline. You know what you're doing wrong -- you're risking too much, you're letting your losers run out of control -- so you know what you need to change. If you really want to become a successful profitable trader, the discipline to change those losing habits is THE #1 most important thing you need to work on.

And don't think building a robot is going to solve all your problems. I've been building and trading robots for 15 years. I traded $10M of client money with my robots back in 2000-2001. But even though my robots worked great, **I** lost money until I developed the discipline to trade them consistently instead of second-guessing them and thinking I was "smarter" than they were.

I'll admit it's easier with today's automated execution -- you can just ignore it and let it place the trades itself. But unfortunately it's MUCH MUCH harder to develop a profitable robot these days. When I first started out, I developed several very profitable systems before I really even understood how to use my platform (Tradestation). There was low-hanging fruit everywhere. Now, I know 10x more than I knew then, and I have years of experience -- and I'm finding it nearly impossible to develop a consistently profitable robot. The markets are MUCH harder to trade today. I'm actually moving away from automated trading approaches (because they don't work very well any more) and focusing more on more-adaptive discretionary methods.

 

[tafy]

Yeah its all true, nice post. My robots cant make money at all but they have never been live so no biggie. Forex isnt for me tbh

 

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[Shuffle]

Im not sure if we can but I could start if off if anyone would like...

The below is a EURAUD DAILY chart. A medium sized pin has formed at the top of a range. From here it could go

1. Down and then through the support line where I have highlighted yellow rectangles.
2. Down and then back up (where I'd look to go long)
3. Up and then retrace (where I'd look to go long)

The bar before Fridays candle is a bullish pinbar pushing up with little volume (tick) due to I'm guessing Thanksgiving. However Thanksgiving aside, a push up with little volume would mean there is little buying power left at the top (being exhausted). The next bar has higher volume but is probably due to being Friday and people are getting out before the weekend. Also that would be where the "ideal" take profit would have been set from a previous pin that I and many others (probably) have taken on NOV 7, which would explain the small rejection sell off.

I wouldn't trade it just yet but here are the pros and cons:

PROS
1. Stong 1.5 RN / Resistance
2. Swing point / protruding
3. Rejection pinbar
4. Higher volume that previous push up bullish pinbar
5. Triple top

CONS
1. Not a commanding Pinbar.
2. Not commanding volume
3. In a 1-2-3 uptrend.
4. In a longer term uptrend.
5. Counter trend.
6. There is no previous candle intention (signs) of strong rejection.

As you can see, it's pretty much split 50/50. I will look at this a little more during the weekend with the other pairs.

If I'm not allowed to do this for any reason I hope somebody lets me know. Otherwise have at it! Opinions?

 

[ddinnov]

Interesting. I have a similar view for this pair, from looking my interpretation is that it's in an uptrend and taking a pause. AUD/USD looks to me like it's got some bearish momentum still and EUR/USD looks to be gaining strength as well so for me any short on EUR/AUD would be counter trend and a pass just for that reason. I like to look at relative strength of pairs vs USD - also interestingly the COT report shows quite bearish sentiment on EUR from big money - and not so much on AUD... hmmm...

However I would watch for a bounce and long in the direction of the trend instead. Your support line looks solid and like a nice entry, also a break above resistance would be nice. Personally I'll watch for a bounce at the lower line (if it get's down there) and/or a break above/pullback/retest of 1.5

For a short I'd see a trouble area at around 1.4750 so I'd be looking to get my stop to breakeven around there. There's some volume divergence which adds weight to the short side as well.

Nice chart

 

[CarrieW]

I see there are people here still... Gary I hope your still around I have been still trading(if what I am doing can even be considered trading atm) but not learning or actually doing anything with my account at all. its very sad and I just said to my husband the other night I need to get back into learning and actively trading again. I have mt4 on my phone and check my trades several times a day but its just totally not the same as active trading. Post back if your around I would love to start this thread going again

 

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[garyfritz]

No, I'm not still around. But I'm subscribed so I got notified of your post.

I'm still actively researching, actively trading, not making much money. My main system made 15% in January but that's an unusually good month. And *I* didn't make the 15% because I don't have an auto-trade setup and I missed some of the trades due to business travel & whatnot.

Bigger concern is that the system isn't stable. It's been slowly falling apart for the last year or two. I keep finding solutions to fix it but it only lasts 6-12 months before another piece falls off. I'm trying to find new systems so I don't have all my eggs in one basket.

 

[CarrieW]

I have to figure out how to do that... I don't get notified of anything. I came back and was surprised to see postings after my November post. I watch the markets always and always have trades open but I haven't been doing much of anything, forex related at least. I have to get someone to kick my a$$ or something lol. I really need to start learning and trading everyday. sitting and watching long term trades suck. LOL I started long term trading for a specific reason and although I have been doing well in the trades I have completed I would honestly rather lose money and trade more. I think I may have a problem

 

[^eagle^]

I would also like to know what Forex trading platform is recommended as well. Trading the currency ETF's (FXE,FXA, etc) isn't very liquid as it only trades during market hours.

sounds like you are trading futures MJ. Not bucket shop forex. The mt4 platforms are a joke. If you start winning they mANIPULATE YOU ON THE DEALER SIDE. i took a spill and financially its been a hard road but now I got a small rental going and fighting inflation to beat the tax man. I know how to trade but the bucket shops will beat you silly. Still looking for an honest broker. that's an oxymoron. there is direct bank lending but you have to trade in full lots. You could handle that but not me. At least not yet.

edit: Just realized this was from page one! Not 34! LOL. Havent been here for a while.

looking forward to getting out of this mudhole and back onto the highway. Inflation has taken me for a beating in the woodshed. But it's all going to turn soon.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=405948

I put my thoughts on trading down in this thread. Forex is not like stocks or commodities. Those follow elliot waves. forex is about drawing lines in the sand.

 

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[Guest3722A]

***for futures*** imo- Pound for Pound, Sierra Chart is the Shiznit w/ deepdiscounttrading . com for futures w/crossland as the clearing. and don't be disillusioned by deepdiscount's website. Howard will give you THE BEST SERVICE at the LOWEST PRICE with one of the most reputable clearing houses.

Reliability - top notch Software - top notch Customer Service - top notch

On a side note, with Sierra Chart - I'd go with the Rithmic data feed

 

[Shuffle]

Hey if people wanna talk forex, I'll pop in no matter what

Currently in EURUSD sell and AUDNZD sell. Anyone else? Both off of pinbars!

 

[CarrieW]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/scary-1929-market-chart-gains-traction-2014-02-11. Not forex but has anyone seen this dow jones chart with the 28-29 crash overlay?

 

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[Shuffle]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/scary-1929-market-chart-gains-traction-2014-02-11. Not forex but has anyone seen this dow jones chart with the 28-29 crash overlay?

Oh goodness. I did see that before and it was really something worth looking at. Good news for gold bugs and other precious metals Possibly alt coins too? Who knows, might happen along with a dollar crash.

 

[loop101]

So limiting your risk is KEY. If you don't control your risk, your account will DIE.

Gary, have you tried limiting risk by trading a "basket" of pairs? I had a big breakthrough when I stopped thinking in terms of trading a single pair, and started thinking in terms of trading "baskets" of pairs. If you can get an averaged return that is almost always a positive number, you can use a lot of leverage and also compound the results. I am working on a system that trades highly leveraged baskets each week, I'll let you know how it works out.