MTF needs a slumpbuster: Too many swings, no hits.

[MTF]

100% and it's worse than that. Not only they can ban you, they charge you draconian fees to use their network. They own the network.

It's like saying you'll open a coffee shop at your favourite corner in your town, you know you'll deliver value but the roads aren't free - they are owned by the same landlord that owns the retail space you want to lease. Not only they can kick you out of the store you created, they control who can travel to your store because they own the damn road.

What I mean is that it's just a bad place to do business because the odds aren't on your side. Heads you lose, tails they win.

That's a very accurate way to put it and exactly how I feel.

The challenge with business is simple: finding the best asymmetric return that's tilted in YOUR favour. Which broadly speaking no longer applies to the vast majority of online business that used to work very well.

Unless that was also your intention, in your favor can be also emphasized as specific to you. Starting a construction company is not tilted in my favor but it is to a person who understands this world. Meanwhile, the odds may be tilted in my favor if I want to start a vegan food company compared to someone who isn't vegan.

Building a B2B usually involves growing a team. Doing it solo often requires being a strong programmer that's got both introvert & extrovert parts fully developed. Few people are like that.

I've heard that as well. Perhaps with some services it may be a little different as you don't need a programmer then but you probably still need a very strong salesman (unless you're doing productized services and don't need to have calls with potential clients).

Even in the Youtube space it is still possible to create a following and succeed. It's not impossible, but what I don't like is the odds.

One of the things that I would love to do is to write an epic story (most likely fantasy or sci-fi) and have it adapted into a TV series. But knowing the reality of writing first-hand and TV production from reading and talking to other people in the industry, I know the odds are so ridiculously low it's not worth my time.

Is it possible? Sure. Is it realistic? No. And even if it is, this likely requires 10-20 years of investment for something that may never work as the amount of luck required is unfathomable.

1) Internet space is now about blockchain. It's the 1990s of the old internet, just upgraded to the newest thing. And AI is a huge part of that, they are hand in glove. Solving problems there is not centralized and cannot be centralized. But it's also not the big 7 lane highway of the 2010, it's hard to travel there at speed at the moment. But that's where I personally believe the "internet business future" resides.

I may be wrong here but to me it seems that this opportunity is only limited to programmers and extremely intelligent people, and above all, to big teams of people (not solopreneurs or small businesses). I don't understand it and likely never will.

2) As a non-tech but curious entrepreneur, I prefer to stick to the old style businesses that rely on humans interacting. Where leadership matters. Where employees and money help provide scale. Where control is with those who have access to capital and human talent. With that, I promote small businesses that can thrive in a local environment. A local quarry that provides concrete to construction concrete projects can make millions! A person who starts a plumbing company and scales it up to 100 staff will make millions. (Assuming they do good work and there is a need for it!) You get the point.

Each day I see so many local businesses doing very well (at least on the surface), yet often there are so many improvements they could make it's interesting to see how well they're still doing despite that. But I also see the lifestyle of the owners and I don't envy them.

That's how RSS died... remember that? Terrible but it's expected. No one is immune, not even Tim Ferriss level of influence.

I still use RSS though it's definitely dead to 99% of people.

 

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[BizyDad]

If they ban you

Too much to read here for me, but ...

This jumped out at me. Maybe don't do things to get you banned?

This isn't directed at you necessarily MTF, I don't know if you're the type, but I see a lot of people with this worry. For some reason, people feel like they need to push the envelope often...

But there are so many paths to value creation and wealth, I don't understand why people choose the one that might lead to this kind of repercussion.

And the message isn't to avoid the internet giants. Every business has always had a certain set of rules. I remember growing up hearing about a plumbing company that went out of business because the only wholesaler in town refused to do business with them anymore.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Instead of complaining about somebody else's rules, why is it so hard to just live by them, solve problems, collect money, and enjoy life?

 

[MTF]

Too much to read here for me, but ...

This jumped out at me. Maybe don't do things to get you banned?

This isn't directed at you necessarily MTF, I don't know if you're the type, but I see a lot of people with this worry. For some reason, people feel like they need to push the envelope often...

But there are so many paths to value creation and wealth, I don't understand why people choose the one that might lead to this kind of repercussion.

And the message isn't to avoid the internet giants. Every business has always had a certain set of rules. I remember growing up hearing about a plumbing company that went out of business because the only wholesaler in town refused to do business with them anymore.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Instead of complaining about somebody else's rules, why is it so hard to just live by them, solve problems, collect money, and enjoy life?

A few years ago my author YouTube channel was banned overnight for no reason. I had a video with a million views, a few dozen other videos, and thousands of subscribers (as far as I remember, low five figures). When I appealed, I was told the decision was final. No explanation was ever given.

Every single video on my channel was my own unique video about a non-controversial topic, produced from scratch by a video designer and professional voice-over artist. I didn't do anything to get me banned. The decision was completely random and happened about two years or so after I launched the channel (so everything was fine during this period of time and then randomly it wasn't).

I was banned by Facebok Ads a few times as well, each time I tried to create a new account. For this, the only reason possible was that I wanted to have a separate business account for Facebook instead of using my personal account for running business stuff. For some reason, my personal advertising account has PayPal banned as a payment method as well. What did I do wrong? No idea.

Then there's SEO. In the recent update Google deindexed thousands of sites, including sites written by experts without AI and without any manipulation of any kind. They received a so-called "manual "penalty which isn't really manual. The funniest thing with all this situation is that a personal blog of Google's SEO spokesperson was also given a manual penalty for spam. That's how ridiculous it is and how hard it is to live by Google rules. It's impossible because they themselves probably don't understand how their algorithm works anymore.

There was this big post by Examine.com (a super legit website) a few years ago when they also talked about how Google stopped liking them for some reason and they could only guess what it was: Google and Examine.com - Examine They did nothing wrong, yet their business was badly damaged (though they did survive and seem to be thriving now even without that much search traffic).

I also mentioned Tim Ferriss a few posts back. He was having issues with Gmail marking his emails as spam. Yet all he does is sends weekly emails without any selling whatsoever. Still, he got hit for some random reason Google will never reveal.

If these platforms were predictable, had clear rules, and most importantly, a support team that is actually composed of living, thinking beings, then maybe that wouldn't be a problem as you could reach out, learn what you did wrong, and fix it. But that's not the case. It's completely unpredictable, random, arbitrary, and with zero respect for the publisher unless you're a super famous person who can connect with someone working in a given company.

 

[StrikingViper69]

One of the things that I would love to do is to write an epic story (most likely fantasy or sci-fi) and have it adapted into a TV series. But knowing the reality of writing first-hand and TV production from reading and talking to other people in the industry, I know the odds are so ridiculously low it's not worth my time.

Is it possible? Sure. Is it realistic? No. And even if it is, this likely requires 10-20 years of investment for something that may never work as the amount of luck required is unfathomable.

Do you need a business at the moment? Fantasy and Sci-Fi have had some big budget adaptions recently...

Sure the chances are slim, but if you are already in position where you don't need the money... well, isn't the point of being in that position so you can do stuff like this?

 

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[IronyIsTacky]

The truth is that starting a business in today’s age isn’t easy, especially not an online business. I’ve done very well the past year for which I’m very grateful but there definitely are a lot of problems on the horizon and there’s always the question of how far you can go.

This is the number one thing scaring me these days. I'm being a good little Fastlaner, going through all the Golds and Notables, from 2007 to 2024. But between the way AI is getting bigger and badder and everywhere, and the fact that some of the legends that wrote some of the Golds I'm reading - like @MTF ! - are stressing over what it's like bottling lightning out here...what can I say, plays on my nerves.

 

[Andy Black]

I'm being a good little Fastlaner, going through all the Golds and Notables, from 2007 to 2024.

Whoa. Don't try to consume your way onto team producer.

Who are you serving while consuming all those threads?

Who will you help this week? How will you get paid this week?

 

[Andy Black]

It's completely unpredictable, random, arbitrary, and with zero respect for the publisher unless you're a super famous person who can connect with someone working in a given company.

Why not run ads? I've been running Google Ads for clients since 2009. It's been very rare for accounts to get shutdown for no apparent reason.

 

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[MTF]

Do you need a business at the moment? Fantasy and Sci-Fi have had some big budget adaptions recently...

Sure the chances are slim, but if you are already in position where you don't need the money... well, isn't the point of being in that position so you can do stuff like this?

In theory yes. In practice I don't want to do anything that comes with a guarantee of failure. The odds are so stacked against me that the chance is practically non-existent.

Not just because it's extremely hard to get anything adapted but also because I'm not a native English speaker, I don't live in the US, I have zero connections and no personality to make them in such a tough industry as entertainment, etc.

When I think that authors like Brandon Sanderson or Joe Abercrombie don't have any adaptations I know that my chances are non-existent.

Why not run ads? I've been running Google Ads for clients since 2009. It's been very rare for accounts to get shutdown for no apparent reason.

Once I figure out a new, real business I'll definitely want to use ads to start it and grow it.

 

[Black_Dragon43]

A few years ago my author YouTube channel was banned overnight for no reason. I had a video with a million views, a few dozen other videos, and thousands of subscribers (as far as I remember, low five figures). When I appealed, I was told the decision was final. No explanation was ever given.

I too got banned from LinkedIn last July. I too was told the decision was final. I ended up losing 40% of my revenue literarily overnight because disloyal customers got scared even though I told them I’ll get the account back.

But I didn’t accept it, and reached to the very top of LinkedIn, got their legal department involved who can always overrule “Trust & Safety” team, and got my account back.

When dancing with the big boys you need to learn to play their game. You need to understand that a company at that size isn’t a monolithic entity — maybe some trigger happy guy clicked ban because he saw something that had nothing to do with anything. His mates from Trust & Safety are protecting him because he’s one of their own and they don’t give a damn about you. So you need to be able to reach someone who has nothing to do with them and can take action on your request.

I don’t understand how you guys can get unfairly banned and just accept it. Literarily blows my mind. I’d go to the ends of the earth to reverse such a decision if I knew I didn’t do anything wrong, regardless of what the frontline workers would tell me.

 

[Supa]

@MTF I have not read every post in here, so please excuse me if I missed something relating to this.

But a question that came to mind was: what are you chasing?

I assume that you are doing good and do not need to have a business succeed now, but you want to, right?

So, why do you want that? What's your driving force?

A lot of the times, we want things because of how they will make us feel, right?

So what feelings associated with what you want to achieve are you chasing?

Only you can tell that for yourself, so: what are those feelings you want to experience? That you feel you need to have?

And if you have an answer, go deeper.

Why do you want that? Why do you feel like you need that?

Is it to combat a sense of emptiness inside? Is it to finally feel good enough? Is it to get validation? Or something else?

Whatever it may be for you, maybe you can find other ways, besides business, to fulfill that need within, so that you can come to chase your wants from a state of already feeling full inside.

Just some thoughts, maybe they help

 

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[Robdavis]

In theory yes. In practice I don't want to do anything that comes with a guarantee of failure. The odds are so stacked against me that the chance is practically non-existent.

MTF,
When I first read this thread, I thought that you didn't know what you wanted to do.

But you do, don't you? You just haven't had the courage to try so far.

Not just because it's extremely hard to get anything adapted

It might be hard, but it seems to me that you could enjoy the process and that would make the attempts worthwhile.

but also because I'm not a native English speaker

You could get a business partner who was.

I don't live in the US

You could get a business partner who did.

I have zero connections

You could network and get some.

and no personality to make them in such a tough industry as entertainment, etc.

You could learn.

When I think that authors like Brandon Sanderson or Joe Abercrombie don't have any adaptations

You could produce the screenplay if you are an author. It might be easier to pitch a screenplay of a well established author's work as a new screenwriter, rather than being a new screenwriter and a new author.

It seems to me that this is more a case of overwhelm. You could break down the process of trying to produce an original series into smaller steps.

I'm making the following up, it's probably wrong, but I think it will illustrate the point:

As an author, you could write a few short stories (15- 20 mins reads) and put them on a website. These could be set in the world of a novel that you could be writing.

You could run ads to bring people to the website and ask them to express an interest in your unfinished book to judge reaction.

Once the book is finished you could promote it, there is plenty of expertise in marketing on this forum and you probably have a lot of your own.

You could do a course in screenwriting at a university or online.

You could create merchandise to sell to readers of your book or books, if you had written more than one.

You could produce a screenplay of someone else's book for TV or a movie.

You could offer to help people in the entertainment industry to build your network.

You could find a contact that could help you pitch the screenplay of someone else's work to, at the very least, understand the processes and people in the industry.

You could use your network to pitch one of your books as a TV series or a movie.

etc. etc.

I think that you would enjoy the process and if you are a good writer, it probably wouldn't be too hard to get some revenues from your writing.

As for genre's, rather than choosing sci-fi or fantasy, could you not write science fantasy and combine the two? As far as i know, it is a less well explored genre than sci-fi or fantasy.

Hope this post helps you in some way.

 

[Supa]

When I think that authors like Brandon Sanderson or Joe Abercrombie don't have any adaptations I know that my chances are non-existent.

Brandon Sanderson has talked about that... if I remember it correctly, he has had several offers for adaptations to some of his works and/or there are some in work currently. I know that a game based on his world is in work.

 

[JUAREZ]

@MTF , I enjoyed reading a lot of your stuff here (your philosophy and what were your thoughts about stoicism).

What I want to evidence is that by having those doubtful thoughts and that you decided to share them here led to this amazing thread. So much wisdom and advice from all the veteran people. This forum is truly a blessing and want to say to all "Thank you". This thread is on my watch list since it is full of gems and I'll use it when I will have a bad experience.

Regarding that you feel like you lost your "business skills", that may be true , but it has nothing to do with you as human being. What I have found through my experience is that skills are perishable. We must use them or they diminish. They either grow or die. You know that you must offer value to people and when you will find where you can add value, you will see what skills you need and learn them.

I saw that you tend to say to a lot of things that you can not do that, it is impossible to do that. Well, what if you can do it? Instead of going from "impossible -> can't do it" what if you choose another road which would be "impossible -> possible -> probable- >inevitable -> done it"

Think about your experience with diving if you had used "It.s impossible. Can't hold my breath and will never learn how to dive". Instead, you took the approach "Well, it is possible to learn. After a lot of work, you arrived at "Probably, I will learn to do it". Again, with a lot of practice and lessons learned, the result was inevitable: You became a free diver and you did it.

Well, these are my 2cents. I must say that I am far from success and work everyday to get there. I do not know when it will happen. It is hard, and I feel like other people know much more things and work better and I can not keep up with them. I try not to be hard with myself and keep it playful and with curiosity.

Thank you for this thread.

 

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[Antifragile]

One of the things that I would love to do is to write an epic story (most likely fantasy or sci-fi) and have it adapted into a TV series. But knowing the reality of writing first-hand and TV production from reading and talking to other people in the industry, I know the odds are so ridiculously low it's not worth my time.

Is it possible? Sure. Is it realistic? No. And even if it is, this likely requires 10-20 years of investment for something that may never work as the amount of luck required is unfathomable.

I guess that's part of the big QUESTION... do we chase things WE want to do? Or do we chase things others NEED but don't yet have?

Leading question, I know...

I may be wrong here but to me it seems that this opportunity is only limited to programmers and extremely intelligent people, and above all, to big teams of people (not solopreneurs or small businesses). I don't understand it and likely never will.

All businesses are essentially the same.

You get the experience you need right after you needed it. This space is no exception and no, doesn't need mega IQ brains.

Each day I see so many local businesses doing very well (at least on the surface), yet often there are so many improvements they could make it's interesting to see how well they're still doing despite that. But I also see the lifestyle of the owners and I don't envy them.

I think this is the crux of the argument where you and I start travelling in the opposite directions and often "clash".

My "lifestyle" to you may seem terrible. Your "lifestyle" to me seems scary. Is there a right and wrong here? Probably not, to each their own.

But when it comes to business, it does help if you disassociate "what it takes" from "how you want it to feel while you do it".

Let me try saying it another way so that other readers can hopefully take something useful out of it.

A business that depends on its founder is not a business - it's a bit like a job. You leave, you don't get paid anymore. Some solopreneur businesses are the exception that prove the rule.

Why is this the case? Because big businesses only want to do business with groups that they perceive as stable. An ad agency that has no staff may be better but I'll always choose one that doesn't die if the one guy get run over by a bus. For this reason, some scale makes it easier to create a venture that doesn't depend on the founder entirely.

This leads to other problems, usually:
a) Need for staff
b) Need for more money (investors)

There is nothing wrong with either, but they are new skills. Someone who's great at doing their particular trade and can make a good living off of it as a "business", being solo... will almost always be terrible at growing staff for one reason: lack of experience.

Similarly, dealing with raising capital and investors is yet another totally new skill. It gets developed the more you do, the better you get.

All of this is 100% against a "lyfestyle digital nomad" or Tim Ferris' 4-hour workweek preaching.

People like me, love that fact. The barriers to entry into our business are so high that I know the foundation is rock hard, I can build on it.

Lifestyle for me includes my business, not the fastest way to an exit. For clarity, I am pro-exit! One day I'll sell my business too. As a PERE business, I sell a lot of projects to create "mini-exists" annually. What I am saying is that the intent isn't to cash out and F*ck off, the intent for me is to continue building for as long as I find joy in doing it. So far, it's such an emotional roller-coaster that I think I am addicted. Imagining something other isn't in the cards... but like anything else in life, things change and I may change.

Returning back to the internet businesses, the issue remains for anyone who's seeking both: lifestyle + high profits: mega corps own the internet and they won't let you get mega profits. They control the roads leading to your businesses, no traffic can make through without their say-so.

Trying to recreate the past of the decentralized internet days is a losing battle. And blaming yourself for it is futile, the odds were it was going to happen.

What is the best business to start now?
Apply zero based thinking "knowing what I now know, would I do ______?".

To me the answer is simple: CENTS criteria.

 

[BizyDad]

A few years ago my author YouTube channel was banned overnight for no reason. I had a video with a million views, a few dozen other videos, and thousands of subscribers (as far as I remember, low five figures). When I appealed, I was told the decision was final. No explanation was ever given.

Every single video on my channel was my own unique video about a non-controversial topic, produced from scratch by a video designer and professional voice-over artist. I didn't do anything to get me banned. The decision was completely random and happened about two years or so after I launched the channel (so everything was fine during this period of time and then randomly it wasn't).

I was banned by Facebok Ads a few times as well, each time I tried to create a new account. For this, the only reason possible was that I wanted to have a separate business account for Facebook instead of using my personal account for running business stuff. For some reason, my personal advertising account has PayPal banned as a payment method as well. What did I do wrong? No idea.

Then there's SEO. In the recent update Google deindexed thousands of sites, including sites written by experts without AI and without any manipulation of any kind. They received a so-called "manual "penalty which isn't really manual. The funniest thing with all this situation is that a personal blog of Google's SEO spokesperson was also given a manual penalty for spam. That's how ridiculous it is and how hard it is to live by Google rules. It's impossible because they themselves probably don't understand how their algorithm works anymore.

There was this big post by Examine.com (a super legit website) a few years ago when they also talked about how Google stopped liking them for some reason and they could only guess what it was: Google and Examine.com - Examine They did nothing wrong, yet their business was badly damaged (though they did survive and seem to be thriving now even without that much search traffic).

I also mentioned Tim Ferriss a few posts back. He was having issues with Gmail marking his emails as spam. Yet all he does is sends weekly emails without any selling whatsoever. Still, he got hit for some random reason Google will never reveal.

If these platforms were predictable, had clear rules, and most importantly, a support team that is actually composed of living, thinking beings, then maybe that wouldn't be a problem as you could reach out, learn what you did wrong, and fix it. But that's not the case. It's completely unpredictable, random, arbitrary, and with zero respect for the publisher unless you're a super famous person who can connect with someone working in a given company.

IMO, a "real" business isn't beholden to one marketing medium. Maybe I should say a "smart" business. But every example you gave was about a marketing medium being shut down.

So what? That's business. Don't like it? Build your own search engine/video site/publishing house/email delivery service/ads delivery network.

Oh, are there legit reasons you can't / won't build another internet giant?

Okay, well, I would like to point out there are literally millions of new millionaires created every few years.

Are they all crying about Facebook/Google/Paypal/Youtube? Perhaps some are.

But it isn't stopping them from finding a problem, solving it, getting paid, and scaling up.

You can focus on the negatives, or focus on the positives. We live at one the best and easiest times for wealth creation in the history of mankind.

Maybe this will help someone? GOLD! - MINDSET - RANT - It Ain't Over Till It's Over

 

[MTF]

@MTF I have not read every post in here, so please excuse me if I missed something relating to this.

But a question that came to mind was: what are you chasing?

I assume that you are doing good and do not need to have a business succeed now, but you want to, right?

So, why do you want that? What's your driving force?

A lot of the times, we want things because of how they will make us feel, right?

So what feelings associated with what you want to achieve are you chasing?

Only you can tell that for yourself, so: what are those feelings you want to experience? That you feel you need to have?

And if you have an answer, go deeper.

Why do you want that? Why do you feel like you need that?

Is it to combat a sense of emptiness inside? Is it to finally feel good enough? Is it to get validation? Or something else?

Whatever it may be for you, maybe you can find other ways, besides business, to fulfill that need within, so that you can come to chase your wants from a state of already feeling full inside.

Just some thoughts, maybe they help

I answered this in my response to @MitchC:

In the long term, I would like to own 2-3 houses around the world. With my current net worth, I can live comfortably for the rest of my life as long as I rent these places whenever I travel. I can't afford buying 2-3 houses for, say, 1 million dollars each.

But I would like more stability and a predictable place and routine. Right now, each longer trip is stressful because you never know how the Airbnb is going to be, whether you're going to like the place, whether it has a good place to work, whether it has stable and fast Internet, whether it has peace and quiet, etc.

By having homes in places I love I could just go there whenever I want with a laptop in hand and have all the stuff ready there (clothes, sports equipment, etc.) to quickly resume my routine.

To add to that, there are some aspects of making money that I simply enjoy. When you're making money (as opposed to getting views or likes or whatever that means nothing) feels like a game. It's hard for me not to make money. It feels like I'm not productive.

 

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[MTF]

When I first read this thread, I thought that you didn't know what you wanted to do.

But you do, don't you? You just haven't had the courage to try so far.

No, I don't know what I want to do. This dream is as realistic as becoming a world champion in freediving. Or actually, even less realistic. Even though it's still close to impossible, becoming a world champion in freediving is more likely than getting a script sold to a good production company and having a hit TV show.

I appreciate your positive thinking but there's positive thinking and there's delusion. I've explored how hard it is to sell your own TV show (and have it succeed) and it's almost impossible.

I mentioned this as something that would be cool to do but I don't have the willingness to pursue this, knowing that the odds are so stacked against me.

If I have unrealistic goals but still work on them, then I know I treat them seriously. The TV show goal I never treated seriously and never will because it's almost impossible. And yes, it's almost impossible so it's technically possible but I just don't care enough to pursue it.

I think that you would enjoy the process and if you are a good writer, it probably wouldn't be too hard to get some revenues from your writing.

I've written some novels and short stories as well as did a course on fantasy writing. Most of the time you hate yourself and it's really not an enjoyable process. Moreover, these days, with AI, I don't see bright future in writing.

 

[MTF]

Brandon Sanderson has talked about that... if I remember it correctly, he has had several offers for adaptations to some of his works and/or there are some in work currently. I know that a game based on his world is in work.

That's my point. The guy is one of the top writers, has ALL the connections, has soooo much extraordinary content to be adapted into a movie or a TV show and has been in the industry for 20 years or so.

Despite that, there are still zero adaptations. Even if there are any offers, no TV shows or movies will get made in the next 5 years if there's no official announcement today.

I'd love to see his work turned into a TV show and hope to see it one day. I'll be a happy consumer but not a producer.

 

[MTF]

Regarding that you feel like you lost your "business skills", that may be true , but it has nothing to do with you as human being. What I have found through my experience is that skills are perishable. We must use them or they diminish. They either grow or die. You know that you must offer value to people and when you will find where you can add value, you will see what skills you need and learn them.

That's a great observation that makes a lot of sense so thank you for sharing that. I've been focusing too much on content and some silly arbitrage instead of focusing on the foundation of business.

Think about your experience with diving if you had used "It.s impossible. Can't hold my breath and will never learn how to dive". Instead, you took the approach "Well, it is possible to learn. After a lot of work, you arrived at "Probably, I will learn to do it". Again, with a lot of practice and lessons learned, the result was inevitable: You became a free diver and you did it.

I suffered A LOT to learn how to freedive but the thing is that every day, hundreds of people become freedivers. Freediving, as hard as it was and still is for me, is infinitely easier than business. I have the right coaches and the right training. Business isn't so clear-cut. You can't coach your way to success simply by doing one course after another. It's tons of guesswork.

 

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[MTF]

I guess that's part of the big QUESTION... do we chase things WE want to do? Or do we chase things others NEED but don't yet have?

In the case of the quoted text it's 100% what I want to do, not what others need. By the way, you could say that nobody really NEEDS entertainment. It's always a want so it's never that safe of a business since you're so easily replaceable.

All businesses are essentially the same.

You get the experience you need right after you needed it. This space is no exception and no, doesn't need mega IQ brains.

Fair point, that's my lack of self-confidence speaking here.

My "lifestyle" to you may seem terrible. Your "lifestyle" to me seems scary. Is there a right and wrong here? Probably not, to each their own.

Exactly. I think it's extremely important to be 100% clear on what you want. I can't imagine myself living your life.

I'm a dude who always wears the same clothes, walks barefoot, is extremely eccentric, and can't relate to "big business" type of people or anyone from the "upper" sphere. I'd feel like Tarzan if I were forced to dress up and spend my days talking with serious investors, partners, employees, etc. and live in a big, busy city.

I feel comfortable hanging out with chalk-covered climbers, freedivers blowing their snot into the ocean right behind you, and other unsavory types like that

This is why I'm kind of a weirdo in the business world. The closest person that comes to my mind that may be similar is Yvon Chouinard of Patagonia (he wrote an excellent autobiography Let My People Go Surfing).

A business that depends on its founder is not a business - it's a bit like a job. You leave, you don't get paid anymore. Some solopreneur businesses are the exception that prove the rule.

And I like being in that exception in a way that it doesn't feel like a job. To me, it feels like a job the moment I have someone else to take care of (employees, a business partner). You thrive in it and that's great. It doesn't fit my personality and values at all.

There is nothing wrong with either, but they are new skills. Someone who's great at doing their particular trade and can make a good living off of it as a "business", being solo... will almost always be terrible at growing staff for one reason: lack of experience.

Similarly, dealing with raising capital and investors is yet another totally new skill. It gets developed the more you do, the better you get.

All of this is 100% against a "lyfestyle digital nomad" or Tim Ferris' 4-hour workweek preaching.

People like me, love that fact. The barriers to entry into our business are so high that I know the foundation is rock hard, I can build on it.

Just reading about these aspects makes me tired lol. And there's also lots of risks that you didn't mention. Here's a good read about this:

The Appeal of the Diversified Solo Founder - Dan Norris

If audio is your thing I recently discussed this on my podcast Yarn Solo here. For most of my career as a founder I haven’t been particularly interested in being a “Solo Founder”. My first foray into business was building websites and elearning tools for companies from 2006 to 2013. I worked for...

dannorris.me

I particularly refer to this part:

I’ve always been a risk taker, particularly in business and many times I’ve put it all on the line, burned the ships and backed myself to make it worth it. But when you build big companies the risk goes to a new level. Making decisions with investors’ money, having personal guarantees for debt finance, being a director of a business with big safety implications. All of these things can lead to life changing negative outcomes. You can go to Jail if you don’t satisfy your safety obligations as a director in Australia. The bank can come after you personally for multiple millions of dollars if you can’t pay back loans you have personally guaranteed. Basically everything you’ve ever worked for can be lost if something goes wrong. This is something I thought about every day and every night running a decent size company. Your life, career, wealth, mental health is constantly hanging in the balance in that state. Is it worth the risk? That’s a personal decision. When I was younger and had less to lose and more time to gain it back I thought yes. These days, not so much.


Over the last few years I’ve spoken to a few long term business owners who have had phases of extreme success and phases of losing everything. I met one guy who had some amazing businesses and then lost it all. He was 60+ years old, working a full time job in another state flying down Monday and back Friday, consulting on the weekends and also working on 3 startup ideas. He’d promised his wife he’d make the money back so they could retire comfortably, and time was running out. I admire the hustle, but I don’t want to be in that position if I can avoid it.

This is exactly why I will never own a big business. There's ZERO doubt in my mind that I would either kill myself or end up hospitalized if I were to take on such immense stress and personal responsibility.

I admire people like you who can take it on. I know I can't. I'd break down within a week.

Trying to recreate the past of the decentralized internet days is a losing battle. And blaming yourself for it is futile, the odds were it was going to happen.

What is the best business to start now?
Apply zero based thinking "knowing what I now know, would I do ______?".

Thank you for that. I'll think about this more.

 

[MTF]

IMO, a "real" business isn't beholden to one marketing medium. Maybe I should say a "smart" business. But every example you gave was about a marketing medium being shut down.

Yes, you're right. That was discussed and emphasized in the beginning by @MJ DeMarco.

Most of my projects in the last few years were arbitrage plays or other "hot trends" relying on one company. In such a case, it's not a real business indeed but more of a temporary hustle.

It can still make you rich if you time it right but it may also lead to a giant failure.

 

[Antifragile]

In the case of the quoted text it's 100% what I want to do, not what others need. By the way, you could say that nobody really NEEDS entertainment. It's always a want so it's never that safe of a business since you're so easily replaceable.



Fair point, that's my lack of self-confidence speaking here.



Exactly. I think it's extremely important to be 100% clear on what you want. I can't imagine myself living your life.

I'm a dude who always wears the same clothes, walks barefoot, is extremely eccentric, and can't relate to "big business" type of people or anyone from the "upper" sphere. I'd feel like Tarzan if I were forced to dress up and spend my days talking with serious investors, partners, employees, etc. and live in a big, busy city.

I feel comfortable hanging out with chalk-covered climbers, freedivers blowing their snot into the ocean right behind you, and other unsavory types like that

This is why I'm kind of a weirdo in the business world. The closest person that comes to my mind that may be similar is Yvon Chouinard of Patagonia (he wrote an excellent autobiography Let My People Go Surfing).



And I like being in that exception in a way that it doesn't feel like a job. To me, it feels like a job the moment I have someone else to take care of (employees, a business partner). You thrive in it and that's great. It doesn't fit my personality and values at all.



Just reading about these aspects makes me tired lol. And there's also lots of risks that you didn't mention. Here's a good read about this:

The Appeal of the Diversified Solo Founder - Dan Norris

If audio is your thing I recently discussed this on my podcast Yarn Solo here. For most of my career as a founder I haven’t been particularly interested in being a “Solo Founder”. My first foray into business was building websites and elearning tools for companies from 2006 to 2013. I worked for...

dannorris.me

I particularly refer to this part:



This is exactly why I will never own a big business. There's ZERO doubt in my mind that I would either kill myself or end up hospitalized if I were to take on such immense stress and personal responsibility.

I admire people like you who can take it on. I know I can't. I'd break down within a week.



Thank you for that. I'll think about this more.

None of what you wrote is at all surprising to me only because I feel like I know you very well by now.

For other readers I want to clarify a few things because they simply aren't true, even if there is some podcast or success story that tells it otherwise.

With that, 3 things I strongly disagree with and want to clarify:

• Risk of bigger business is not higher. I call BS on that. It's the greed of people that makes it true for some. Greed comes from wanting maximum extraction of any kind of gains by putting your own house as collateral for loans. I've NEVER once personally guaranteed any of my corporate loans. And I don't plan on starting it now that we are big enough to self-guarantee at the corporate level.
• Going to jail personal liability risk is also BS. To go to jail under "normal" circumstances in most countries means being grossly negligent at a minimum. What does that mean. DYOR, but typically it means knowing that what you are about to do is bad and still doing it. Like overriding your safety person on a construction site and doing it against accepted practices that leads to a collapse and kills someone - yeah, that kind of stuff. YOU get control over those decisions and they aren't some phantom "oh geez I din't know..." YOU knew!
• Employees is not like having a job. It's literally the exact opposite. I have control and choice as employer. My business has value because it's set up to work and investors who seek yield could just buy it and I go away. OR, I can just fire everyone, burn the papers and throw away the computers and be done with it. It is NOTHING like being an employee. When I disappear on vacation, business generates value BECAUSE of employees! I can't stress it enough, it's the opposite of what it's like to have a job.

But we agree that what works for you won't work for me and what works for me won't work for you. Which is great for readers here to see and make their own choices.

None of what I do can be described as easy... or lead to a "lifestyle". But I have a wonderful family, fulfilling life and I enjoy the things I do daily enough to continue working hard. A few years back I hit my "number" and contemplated "could we just call it a day and retire?"... the thought scared me more than I can relay and I doubled down on going for another 10x.

Philosophically, I think the most important thing is to know yourself. Never try to fit into some mould by someone else, just work within the parameters of who you are.

Which is why I am suggesting for you @MTF to chase blockchain businesses ideas as it's more fitting with who you are. And I'd never recommend to you to start a big business or any employee centric business. It was just for illustration purposes because there are so many readers who could benefit from thinking differently.

 

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[amp0193]

I've NEVER once personally guaranteed any of my corporate loans

I don't know your business, but you mentioned earlier it's PERE. So your commercial loans were collateralized by real estate though right?

Outside of that, pretty difficult to get non-PG corporate debt with business under a certain size. Or have you found otherwise?

Employees is not like having a job. It's literally the exact opposite.

Every mind-numbing bullshit task I hand off feels so good. It's like magic.

Payroll gets run and I don't think about it. Customer service is handled. Products are designed. Widgets are built and shipped. Deals are done. Problems are solved. When you're solo, you gotta do all the shit. Maybe some can find it zen, but I can't do a repetitive low-value task more than about 3 times before I lose my mind.

My video game for 2024 is "how much can I hand off to others?".

I'm still spending time building new systems... but I'm working towards getting to the point of just being able to think up a system and then telling someone else to build it.

Managing people is a skill though, and it can be hard when you haven't done it before.

 

[Primeperiwinkle]

Thank you, I appreciate it.



Fair point and makes sense. My inner critic is very strong and I struggle to think about myself positively, ever.

I didn't hit true rock bottom as it's more of an aspirational thing than a need thing. But I do need to change the approach a lot.



I try to talk with others but few people can truly relate because it's a relatively rare problem that a seemingly successful person thinks they're useless.

I make my hubby happy, educate my kids, learn languages, host international groups, bring ppl together. I'm literally sunbathing from inside my house in the South of Spain while I type this. I am the most encouraging friendly person, but deep down, in the corner I don't share with anybody who isn't an entrepreneur? I feel useless too. I'm not making money and it incessantly grates on me. You're not alone.

Why not run ads? I've been running Google Ads for clients since 2009. It's been very rare for accounts to get shutdown for no apparent reason.

I love how Andy always comes alongside ppl and offers real help. His path gets dismissed though, because most ppl want work that aligns with their identity.

Except that's the trap, right? If we only go down paths that feel meaningful to who we are right now, we'll be stuck walking in a circle, staying who we are right now. Our previous business got us into the canyon and now we can't get out.

The same donkey that got us into this mess can't help us continue on our journey. It wandered away right? We fell off or it died. Whatever.

We need a solid animal again to carry us up out of this situation so we start looking around. What kind do we want? Well, not another donkey!! Please no! We keep thinking, "I don't want another donkey business. I hate donkeys. Donkeys are not cool. I want a good solid horse, not a unicorn or a centaur friend or anything mythical, just a decent horse." We think that and believe ourselves to be humble.

Then we try a few cool horses but those all end up hurting our butts or needing a lot of water. Horses are hard to take care of.

Let's face it. We aren't disciplined enough to ride a horse. Damn.

In theory yes. In practice I don't want to do anything that comes with a guarantee of failure. The odds are so stacked against me that the chance is practically non-existent.

Not just because it's extremely hard to get anything adapted but also because I'm not a native English speaker, I don't live in the US, I have zero connections and no personality to make them in such a tough industry as entertainment, etc.

When I think that authors like Brandon Sanderson or Joe Abercrombie don't have any adaptations I know that my chances are non-existent.



Once I figure out a new, real business I'll definitely want to use ads to start it and grow it.

"Real" business? Andy's been helping hundreds (if not thousands)of ppl for years and years. He's happy, successful, hardworking, and above all meaningful to every single business owner that he helps and yet his business gets judged as not "real"?

Interesting. I feel the same way. Like having a Google Ads business just isn't very cool. (Andy, none of this is directed at you..I'm speaking in metaphysical terms. These are all vague feelings I'm trying to pin down. Please forgive my specific use of your business.)

What is it about Google Ads that makes me, personally, feel like it's a donkey business? I kind of secretly despised my old business too actually.. I felt like it was a donkey. I never wanted to hang out with ppl who worked in my field. But I had meaning. I helped hundreds of people. I was making money and growing.

I keep looking for a business that feels "right" but that's not what made me successful in the first place. Maybe our inner compass isn't broken at all? Maybe we've been paying attention to the wrong end of the arrow? Damnnit I switched metaphors. Let me get back on track.

What I mean is that when you're at the bottom of the canyon of despair a horse actually isn't much help. Horses suck in canyons. Horses die without a lot of happy grass and streams and stuff, right? Donkeys are the better choice when you're in a barren desert canyon.

Donkeys. They get you out.

To add to that, there are some aspects of making money that I simply enjoy. When you're making money (as opposed to getting views or likes or whatever that means nothing) feels like a game. It's hard for me not to make money. It feels like I'm not productive.

Exactly. Work brings meaning. I hate feeling lazy. I want to be proud of myself. I want to see myself as an established horse rider helping other horsey people do cowgirl type things while I get to wear cute outfits.

Hmmm.

Rational conversations do not lead to emotional breakthroughs. If you want to feel differently, talking rationally won't accomplish that.

Deeply emotional convos with swirling hopes and fears, utterly honest revealings, it's those types of conversations that lead to revelation.

 

[Simon Angel]

Are you actually looking to start another business or struggling with meaning in general?

 

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[Andy Black]

I make my hubby happy, educate my kids, learn languages, host international groups, bring ppl together. I'm literally sunbathing from inside my house in the South of Spain while I type this. I am the most encouraging friendly person, but deep down, in the corner I don't share with anybody who isn't an entrepreneur? I feel useless too. I'm not making money and it incessantly grates on me. You're not alone.

I love how Andy always comes alongside ppl and offers real help. His path gets dismissed though, because most ppl want work that aligns with their identity.

Except that's the trap, right? If we only go down paths that feel meaningful to who we are right now, we'll be stuck walking in a circle, staying who we are right now. Our previous business got us into the canyon and now we can't get out.

The same donkey that got us into this mess can't help us continue on our journey. It wandered away right? We fell off or it died. Whatever.

We need a solid animal again to carry us up out of this situation so we start looking around. What kind do we want? Well, not another donkey!! Please no! We keep thinking, "I don't want another donkey business. I hate donkeys. Donkeys are not cool. I want a good solid horse, not a unicorn or a centaur friend or anything mythical, just a decent horse." We think that and believe ourselves to be humble.

Then we try a few cool horses but those all end up hurting our butts or needing a lot of water. Horses are hard to take care of.

Let's face it. We aren't disciplined enough to ride a horse. Damn.

"Real" business? Andy's been helping hundreds (if not thousands)of ppl for years and years. He's happy, successful, hardworking, and above all meaningful to every single business owner that he helps and yet his business gets judged as not "real"?

Interesting. I feel the same way. Like having a Google Ads business just isn't very cool. (Andy, none of this is directed at you..I'm speaking in metaphysical terms. These are all vague feelings I'm trying to pin down. Please forgive my specific use of your business.)

What is it about Google Ads that makes me, personally, feel like it's a donkey business? I kind of secretly despised my old business too actually.. I felt like it was a donkey. I never wanted to hang out with ppl who worked in my field. But I had meaning. I helped hundreds of people. I was making money and growing.

I keep looking for a business that feels "right" but that's not what made me successful in the first place. Maybe our inner compass isn't broken at all? Maybe we've been paying attention to the wrong end of the arrow? Damnnit I switched metaphors. Let me get back on track.

What I mean is that when you're at the bottom of the canyon of despair a horse actually isn't much help. Horses suck in canyons. Horses die without a lot of happy grass and streams and stuff, right? Donkeys are the better choice when you're in a barren desert canyon.

Donkeys. They get you out.


Exactly. Work brings meaning. I hate feeling lazy. I want to be proud of myself. I want to see myself as an established horse rider helping other horsey people do cowgirl type things while I get to wear cute outfits.

Hmmm.

Rational conversations do not lead to emotional breakthroughs. If you want to feel differently, talking rationally won't accomplish that.

Deeply emotional convos with swirling hopes and fears, utterly honest revealings, it's those types of conversations that lead to revelation.

Just to clarify, I wasn't suggesting @MTF provide a Google Ads service to other businesses.

I just see people putting so much time, effort, and money into getting organic visitors from Google, YouTube, and other platforms. And then complain when it's too slow, too inconsistent, or they feel like they're on a content treadmill to nowhere.

Platforms often have a paid route where you create content and put ad spend behind it.

Have loads of articles you're hoping will rank on Google? Maybe run dynamic search ads and start getting visitors as soon as the campaigns are approved. Dial in the campaigns till they're bringing a consistent stream of visitors. Then focus on how best to convert your consistent stream of visitors into raving customers etc.

Same goes for videos, social media posts, etc.

I've clients who prefer paying for ads than paying for content and getting it SEO'd.

Free isn't free. We always pay in time, effort, money or some other way.

I'm not saying NOT to do organic strategies. Heck, I don't run ads for my own business but instead bounce around online helping people and leaving breadcrumbs all over the place.


Oh, and I think @MTF was referring to when he has a business worth running ads to then he'll start. I don't think he was saying digital marketing isn't a real service.

To counter that statement from MTF though, I think paid ads can help people *find* product-market-fit, product-audience-fit, and/or product-founder-fit. It's a skill that can be learned, or delegated. You don't have to wait till you're scaling before you start using ads.

 

[MTF]

@Antifragile and @amp0193

I need to clarify one thing because I did a poor job in my previous response and it might have sounded too aggressive or like I dismissed the idea of having employees.

I do have great experiences working with contractors. There's no way I would've been able to do what they did for me. And I'm open to having contractors, maybe even some full-time VAs.

I just don't want to deal with payroll, paying 2x more due to extra taxes, social security, etc., complying with various regulations, etc. This requires building out a "proper" company and that's something I'm unlikely to ever do. I imagine my limit would be probably a few contractors. Anything more than that and it would become too overwhelming.

 

[MTF]

"Real" business? Andy's been helping hundreds (if not thousands)of ppl for years and years. He's happy, successful, hardworking, and above all meaningful to every single business owner that he helps and yet his business gets judged as not "real"?

I did not dismiss Andy's business and my comment about not having a real business was aimed at my own projects the last few years, not his business.

 

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[MTF]

I just see people putting so much time, effort, and money into getting organic visitors from Google, YouTube, and other platforms. And then complain when it's too slow, too inconsistent, or they feel like they're on a content treadmill to nowhere.

Excellent post.

It just takes way too long to get anywhere with content. And these days, content is just too competitive of a game. Ads are, too. But at least you aren't competing with millions of people who value their time at $1 per hour. These people would rather write content and expect 100 visitors over the next six months than pay $50 for an ad and get them all to the website on the same day.

And the content treadmill is something I despise, yet somehow each time I end up doing exactly that. I think it's because I look at each business as an extension of MY skills instead of building it from the problem of the customer (and content isn't always the right way to solve it).

I've clients who prefer paying for ads than paying for content and getting it SEO'd.

Free isn't free. We always pay in time, effort, money or some other way.

That's something that I want to do going forward. I understand the benefits of content marketing as a long-term play but now I want to focus on testing things fast.

 

[MTF]

Are you actually looking to start another business or struggling with meaning in general?

I'm not struggling with meaning. I've internalized the belief that life has no meaning and don't seek it anymore. I'm fine just having an enjoyable life. Having some kind of a business, at least still at this stage of my life (probably not when I'm older), makes it a little bit more enjoyable.