Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[Timmy C]

All your models are destroyed.

 

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[Sethamus]

Are they? Did they buy the dip below 50k the other week? I’m wondering how long it takes a company like this that is all in on crypto to make these purchases as everyone else that join in to help rocket the price up will take even longer.

Also, what will cause the market correction of 70%+ this time if it takes these corporations longer to get in and out? Will it simply be btc being overvalued temporarily by all of these companies getting in all at once? Would this spread out the correction back down over a few days or even weeks?

If it starts moving I’ll probably set a sell limit for half of what I have at something $100k+ just to try and catch a peak. If it goes higher I’ll still have more to sell, just trying to make a little cash to put into a property.

 

[Kevin88660]

Are they? Did they buy the dip below 50k the other week? I’m wondering how long it takes a company like this that is all in on crypto to make these purchases as everyone else that join in to help rocket the price up will take even longer.

Also, what will cause the market correction of 70%+ this time if it takes these corporations longer to get in and out? Will it simply be btc being overvalued temporarily by all of these companies getting in all at once? Would this spread out the correction back down over a few days or even weeks?

If it starts moving I’ll probably set a sell limit for half of what I have at something $100k+ just to try and catch a peak. If it goes higher I’ll still have more to sell, just trying to make a little cash to put into a property.

Companies CEO are there to keep their jobs. I doubt they would want to rush in to buy bitcoin which if fall in value will put blames on them .

Micro-strategy had problems competing in the software space. Michael Saylor is taking the gamble to transform the company into a bitcoin trust soon.

I think the asset management sector might be interested to put less than one percent of their portfolio into cryptocurrencies. If you see any investment mix besides the stocks and bonds that play a heavy role there is always a segment called real estate, commodities and others.

Everyone has their own agenda to shill their bags and have others helping them to invest in the same direction. Ray Dalio is basically saying “I dont buy bitcoin because there is very little history and data (10 years).” Meanwhile Bridgewater is hyping a scenario of “rotation into value” for this year. If this is true then it will be a year not so good for tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.

 

[GPM]

and.... there she blows. First stop: Mars.

Strap the f*ck in! LFG!!

Lol, so much for those 10% increases, it's going the wrong way!!

 

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[Kak]

Lol, so much for those 10% increases, it's going the wrong way!!

His hindsight is absolutely incredible though .

 

[Timmy C]

Are they? Did they buy the dip below 50k the other week? I’m wondering how long it takes a company like this that is all in on crypto to make these purchases as everyone else that join in to help rocket the price up will take even longer.

Also, what will cause the market correction of 70%+ this time if it takes these corporations longer to get in and out? Will it simply be btc being overvalued temporarily by all of these companies getting in all at once? Would this spread out the correction back down over a few days or even weeks?

If it starts moving I’ll probably set a sell limit for half of what I have at something $100k+ just to try and catch a peak. If it goes higher I’ll still have more to sell, just trying to make a little cash to put into a property.

70% correction will happen at some stage.

Leverage traders will cause it.

It's still a relatively illiquid market, so these swings will stay for some time.

 

[mguerra]

Aaand we just broke the ATH.

 

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[mrpixel]

$60k let's go.

 

[JamesQB8]

Aaand we just broke the ATH.

View: https://youtu.be/RF8BDRkRct4

 

[Deleted78083]

Sounds like it's getting personal lol

 

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[James Fake]

What changed from $240,000 to $100,000.

Big sentiment change.

Yeah; it actually changed a few weeks ago. Essentially, when we topped at $58k and entered that big ol' dip; I was expecting this "Base #2 of Bullrun cycle" to occur more around the $90-100k mark.

But it happened early, this Base #2 is the violent shakeout type pullback that happens before the last half.

Which essentially puts us at about $100-120k as a very possible top before a big correction.. A lot of things and timing of various events converging there as well including overall retail trader sentiment is matching up exactly.

 

[MoneyDoc]

One thing to note about Micro Strategy buying bitcoin at $57k, etc. they average out at ~$24k. If Bitcoin drops to $30k, they still make a hefty profit. So I really don't see how their buying activity is any relevant or why it's used as a standard in which it's still cheap to buy Bitcoin?

And why do they feel the need to publicly announce their purchases besides the quick pump?

Genuine questions and I would love to be educated.

 

[JamesQB8]

One thing to note about Micro Strategy buying bitcoin at $57k, etc. they average out at ~$24k. If Bitcoin drops to $30k, they still make a hefty profit. So I really don't see how their buying activity is any relevant or why it's used as a standard in which it's still cheap to buy Bitcoin?

And why do they feel the need to publicly announce their purchases besides the quick pump?

Genuine questions and I would love to be educated.

I assume it's to promote the strategy of dollar cost averaging. Also when more people dca in and hold it reduces volatility.

 

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[csalvato]

One thing to note about Micro Strategy buying bitcoin at $57k, etc. they average out at ~$24k. If Bitcoin drops to $30k, they still make a hefty profit. So I really don't see how their buying activity is any relevant or why it's used as a standard in which it's still cheap to buy Bitcoin?

And why do they feel the need to publicly announce their purchases besides the quick pump?

Genuine questions and I would love to be educated.

They made a decision to not carry any USD, including free cash flow.

Their initial buy was far greater than any recurring buys because they had a ton in their treasury already, and now only put operating income into BTC as it comes in, which is going to be a lot lower than their initial treasury amount.

At this point, the purchases by MicroStrategy are symbolic of the fact that they continue to stay true to their word, and heavily favor BTC over the USD for their operating budgets.

I they stop doing this, it will be a signal, imo.

 

[Kevin88660]

And why do they feel the need to publicly announce their purchases besides the quick pump?

Genuine questions and I would love to be educated.

The rules of the game according to Chandler Guo a crypto multimillionaire/billionaire.

1) All in your net wealth
2) Shout and Spread the gospel to the whole world

It is like the early day sailors in 17th century. This is the field that tends to attract extreme risk takers.

Michael Saylor is just the front man that is visible. Hundreds of Billions of whales money taking bets on the same side waiting for greater institutional adoption.

It is the pitch of the decade. No body has crystal balls. They may look confident but they are also shivering in private.

If you look at Elon Musk Tweets whales have been lobbying him to join in since late last year.

There is so much at stake. It is definitely a coordinated move by a “syndicate”.

Sell to the public companies, the pitch is that asset management companies will buy it. Sell to the asset management companies, the pitch is that central banks will buy it. Sell to the central banks, because if you don’t you have to buy back at higher price later when other central banks bought first......

Bitcoin has been one of the most successful cryptocurrency project because the vision, road map above and community goal has been very clear and strong. If everyone is lying to one another and dump on the first 10 percent move up then bitcoin won’t have price history it had.

Everyone has to do their part. Michael Saylor is doing his part.

 

[Timmy C]

within a few months we will hit our market cycle top I believe.

Risk reward is abysmal right now.

 

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[FlyingFreedom]

within a few months we will hit our market cycle top I believe.

Risk reward is abysmal right now.

View attachment 37192View attachment 37193View attachment 37194

Yes, S2FX shows the same thing.

Anywhere between May and October 2021 will probably be the top.

The question is: how deep (or shallow) will be the coming bear cycle now that so many diamond hand institutions are in?

 

[Kak]

70% correction will happen at some stage.

Leverage traders will cause it.

It's still a relatively illiquid market, so these swings will stay for some time.

within a few months we will hit our market cycle top I believe.

Risk reward is abysmal right now.

View attachment 37192View attachment 37193View attachment 37194

If you think this, why aren’t you short?

 

[Kak]

I know what you’re thinking... and YES, it time travels.

 

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[nitrousflame]

If you think this, why aren’t you short?

FWIW, I tend to agree with a future 70%+ drawdown, but the problem is, let's say the exact same thing happens this time as in 2017 and it does 17x from 20k all the way up to $340k. A 70% drawdown would produce a price of $102k. Seems foolish to go short below the future bottom price.

 

[socaldude]

I hate the central bank part, but a stablecoin pegged on a Keynesian manipulated currency has the same effect anyway. I think this is a move in the right direction for ease of exchange, but it does nothing to sound up the currency

Yeah it’s basically an oxymoron. It’s all about who controls the quantity of money. It really makes no sense. The only thing I see it doing is streamlining payment and banking solutions. But that’s it. The government and bankers still control the money.

And by the way, I think giving control over issuing money and manipulating it to these private and public entities is probably the biggest mistake of all mankind and history. Makes no difference, the dollar is still garbage.

 

[ChrisV]

This nefarious use thing is a headwind and a tailwind. First of all, commerce legitimizes it. All commerce. I don’t care if it is nefarious commerce or above board.

Arguing that it is bad “because drug dealers” is as wrong as saying drug dealers don’t use it. Seriously? Of course they do! It is the best invention for drug dealers since the burner phone. Literally, a member of the forum that is currently serving time in a federal prison used it to deal drugs.

Drug dealers and murderers also use guns, it is not a reason to ban guns for legitimate use. After all, they already banned drug dealers and murderers. That didn’t work out well.

That said, just like with guns, the nefarious shit is a convenient excuse for zealous politicians to make things more difficult for those of us without nefarious intentions.

No, I can care less about the morality what people use it for. If you really want my opinion I think the government should mind their business regarding the drug trade. Supply / demand / laissez faire, yadda yadda yadda. I never ever ever said bitcoin was bad. The point is there's a very good chance governments are going to start cracking down on it, and they actually already have in many states. It's a total bitch to buy Bitcoin in New York these days.

I feel bad for some of these guys in this thread who take this "LALALA I CAN'T HEARRRRR YOUUU"



attitude rather than rational, calm, balanced approach. Rather than "Bitcoin is gonna overthrow the governments and make paper money worfless!" attitude that may end up costing them a lot of money.

Again, bitcoin doesn't really have much use that's already done better elsewhere. Some people cited being able to send money to friends/family , but I can already do that with ApplePay, the Cash App, PayPal, etc
which doesn't involve me having to show my ID on webcam, waiting an hour for that transaction to clear, paying a percent to the company selling it, then sending it and waiting another hour.

But again, I will admit that BTC is super-duper convenient for buying grey-market materials.

Edit: yea that chart is basically perfect.

 

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[ChrisV]

The 'sending money internationally' scenario is a valid use-case for Cryptos but that's big enough to warrant the amount of excitement I see over cryptos. Crypto value is 10% signal, 90% noise. 10% legitimate technology, 90% speculative bubble. Go ahead, invest. But just be aware that there's a good chance the bubble is gonna pop and make sure you get out before that happens.

 

[Timmy C]

If you think this, why aren’t you short?

Well, I don't think it will happen now so it doesn't make sense for me to short anything.
I have never shorted anything before either.

I fixed it!

 

[GPM]

10% legitimate technology, 90% speculative

Decentralization is going to literally change the way the entire world runs...

 

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[csalvato]

@ChrisV mind telling me which one would piss you off more if you saw me wearing it on the street?

I'll get whichever one you hate more.

 

[Timmy C]

@ChrisV, mind telling me which one would piss you off more if you saw me wearing it on the street?

I'll get whichever one you hate more.

View attachment 37205

View attachment 37206

I think a 'have fun being wrong" shirt would work as we aren't there yet.

 

[Timmy C]

The 'sending money internationally' scenario is a valid use-case for Cryptos but that's big enough to warrant the amount of excitement I see over cryptos. Crypto value is 10% signal, 90% noise. 10% legitimate technology, 90% speculative bubble. Go ahead, invest. But just be aware that there's a good chance the bubble is gonna pop and make sure you get out before that happens.

Number go up.

 

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[Timmy C]

No, I can care less about the morality what people use it for. If you really want my opinion I think the government should mind their business regarding the drug trade. Supply / demand / laissez faire, yadda yadda yadda. I never ever ever said bitcoin was bad. The point is there's a very good chance governments are going to start cracking down on it, and they actually already have in many states. It's a total bitch to buy Bitcoin in New York these days.

I feel bad for some of these guys in this thread who take this "LALALA I CAN'T HEARRRRR YOUUU"

View attachment 37203

attitude rather than rational, calm, balanced approach. Rather than "Bitcoin is gonna overthrow the governments and make paper money worfless!" attitude that may end up costing them a lot of money.

Again, bitcoin doesn't really have much use that's already done better elsewhere. Some people cited being able to send money to friends/family , but I can already do that with ApplePay, the Cash App, PayPal, etc
which doesn't involve me having to show my ID on webcam, waiting an hour for that transaction to clear, paying a percent to the company selling it, then sending it and waiting another hour.

But again, I will admit that BTC is super-duper convenient for buying grey-market materials.

Edit: yea that chart is basically perfect.

Why would you feel bad for people disagreeing on a particular investment vehicle than you Chris?

It doesn't make any sense. The market will decide who is right in the end.

 

[Xeon]

@ChrisV mind telling me which one would piss you off more if you saw me wearing it on the street?

I'll get whichever one you hate more.

View attachment 37205

View attachment 37206

100% of the crypto nerds here after their "crypto-will-save-the-world" bubble burst: