Antifragile's take: The secret to scaling up.

[thechosen1]

I'd say the biggest mistake I've ever made and still do, is not take action on the biggest thing thats going to move the needle in the business at that time.

I've read most best selling business books and biographies of successful business people. I've got all the knowledge I'll probably ever need to make a lot of money right now, but if you spend time doing the wrong things or nothing at all you end up like me.

I liked the other thread aimed at younger forum visitors saying give up social media, I myself wouldn't say I'm addicted to social media but I'd certainly say I've now built up an addiction to "consuming" irrelevant information.

There's also a tendency to over analyse things, as Mike said further up in his post that if he sees another competitor doing the same it kind of pisses him off and invokes negative thoughts. I'm the same.

I think that there's a lot that can be said for experience in business but that can sometimes work against you, the experiences I've gone through have eroded a lot of the self belief away that my younger self used to have.

You'd think I'd be eager to make amends to past mistakes, even a few days ago I went the shop with my Wife to buy something and I knew there was only £27 left in my account, thankfully what we put in the basket came to just under £26 as I was praying I wouldn't have to suffer the embarrassment of my card declining.

I'm down on what I need to be earning each month, stress levels are through the roof with it and its causing issues with her. Does it make me go out and get a part time on the side? or even get back in front of a computer and start doing outreach? Cold Call maybe? Send an email? Send someone a DM?

Nope, i get back in the chair and tweak something on my website, or try and make the outreach message better. I'll occasionally get a referral from one of my clients and pick up and extra client or two but thats it.

One of my higher paying clients wanted to delay her new campaign last week and start it in June, meaning her payment I was expecting was delayed. I'd have probably earned more money working at Mcdonalds this month now. I've literally had to tell her that I have another client in her area who wants to work with us (they don't) and if she could pay at least 50% now. Shes said yes and last night I emailed her the invoice, still no payment but I don't want to sound too desperate but really need to get it paid.

An 18 year old kid could probably take over my company and build it up to £10k a month in no time, does he have more experience than me? nope. He does have no fear, he'll take action on what he needs to do.

At this moment it feels like the only thing thats going to jolt me is a health scare where I get told I've got something bad to get me out this rut. It's bizarre, it's like my hand will not move the mouse to do what needs to be done.

Sounds crazy but its lasted years now, at least when COVID was happened I could hide behind that as excuse.

In 20 years time I still want what I always have, freedom. I'm 42 never had a job working for someone and I'm completely against trading 5 days for 2 of a weekend and waiting for retirement. My actions say the opposite though.

I think about this hypothetical 18 year old kid a lot and how I might structure a commission-only sales agreement with him. There is definitely a way!

 

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[Paul David]

Find him. Then get him to cold call and all the rest of it, pay him a commission, 20% of your monthly revenue for at least 1 year, he doesn't have to do anything apart from sign up the client.

If you can't do something, stop trying to force yourself to do it, as it's obviously not working. You've been trying for 20+ years. Find a way to get it taken care of without YOU doing it.

You'll be surprised how common this is with agency owners though... It's why I've done so well with my AI outreach system for agency owners... some people simply can't do these things, so the easiest solution is to have them NOT do it and build a system that handles it for them

It's not been 20 years, its been around for 3 for this business but I get where you're coming from.

I actually have an AI outreach method myself which I've built but not really used, not really as in never.

It works via SMS and chat Gpt to filter negative respones. All I need to do is upload the contacts and let it do its thing, I don't even need to see the negative replies the way it's built.

 

[BizyDad]

I think about this hypothetical 18 year old kid a lot and how I might structure a commission-only sales agreement with him. There is definitely a way!

Bro. Craiglist ad. Find the kid...

Stop dreaming, start doing.

 

[heavy_industry]

I've written goals and always felt let down when I didn't achieve them.

But the reason they weren't achieved is because I had no control over them.

Declaring that I was going to make X dollars in X time period was a useless goal.

This is a very valid point.

There's an important distinction between cause and effect: What you do, and what happens as a consequence.

Getting to x amount of $ by the end of the year is a consequence, it's not something that can be pursued directly. Having this as an aspirational goal can be useful, because it acts like a milestone that can help you adjust the plan as you move forward.

But as soon as the milestone goals are put into place, the actual focus should be the execution of the process. That's the only thing that you have control over.

Here are examples of actual goals that can be pursued directly:

• make 1000 phone calls
• launch 5 products
• create 3 websites
• spend $x on ads
• hire 10 people etc.

Always focus on nourishing the tree.
The fruit will happen.

 

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[Isaac Odongo]

Always focus on nourishing the tree.
The fruit will happen.

Love this. P and PC.

Production and Production Capacity.

Nourish the goose and the golden eggs will keep coming.

 

[Two Dog]

Like @Kak says - I'm wanting to avoid freelancing like the plague (I still edit videos for clients, and the pay is much better than a job) - but if there's a path to leverage and CENTS commandments - I have no problem giving up personal time at first to make that happen. I guess the lack of clarity on that is a temporary handicap. The goal is fastlane and only that.

Freelancing is absolutely a path to leverage and CENTS. You're just not thinking of that way.

One of the stories @Antifragile posted above described an "oldie but goodie" about increasing hourly rate. I hadn't heard it before, but it struck me that the steps are pretty much the same for everyone successful. Start anywhere, get motivated, learn new skills, niche down, outsource work, repeat & scale. Each stage is more valuable, but also requires learning an entirely new set of skills at each stage.

If I asked you why freelancing isn't CENTS, you'd probably say it doesn't scale because It's trading time for money.

Yep. But why doesn't it scale? What prevents it from scaling? If the market is willing to pay $100 / hour for a service (ANY SERVICE), freelancing work can be scaled because there are always competent people willing to do the actual work for much less money. The CEO job becomes learning how to find them, recruit them, train them and manage them to deliver a consistent result. Then you can move on to the repeat and scale stage which really is CENTS.

 

[mikecarlooch]

Freelancing is absolutely a path to leverage and CENTS. You're just not thinking of that way.

One of the stories @Antifragile posted above described an "oldie but goodie" about increasing hourly rate. I hadn't heard it before, but it struck me that the steps are pretty much the same for everyone successful. Start anywhere, get motivated, learn new skills, niche down, outsource work, repeat & scale. Each stage is more valuable, but also requires learning an entirely new set of skills at each stage.

If I asked you why freelancing isn't CENTS, you'd probably say it doesn't scale because It's trading time for money.

Yep. But why doesn't it scale? What prevents it from scaling? If the market is willing to pay $100 / hour for a service (ANY SERVICE), freelancing work can be scaled because there are always competent people willing to do the actual work for much less money. The CEO job becomes learning how to find them, recruit them, train them and manage them to deliver a consistent result. Then you can move on to the repeat and scale stage which really is CENTS.

The way I view it is the way @MJ DeMarco describes his experience with being an affiliate marketing hitch hiker in TMF .

He was talking about being in a room for a “motivational pump up speech”, with 3,000 people doing the exact same thing as him.

As he points out, if you jump into a crowd like “digital marketing agency” or “freelancer” you’re fighting stiff odds.

If we’re going to spend our precious time playing this game of business, why should we choose the game that has 1 million other people on twitter saying..

“Drop a comment here and I’ll send you my free guide that will get you 10 clients guaranteed!”

Why not play the game where the payoff is bigger and the odds are way better? And the service isn’t heavily commoditized? (Unless you’re a branding wizard, that’s a whole nother thing and a totally viable option I feel)..

But That’s why I’m not interesting in the whole freelance digital marketing gig anymore personally.

 

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[Antifragile]

I'd say the biggest mistake I've ever made and still do, is not take action on the biggest thing thats going to move the needle in the business at that time.

What will you do differently (if anything) starting today?

You know the definition of insanity - doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result.

I've read most best selling business books and biographies of successful business people. I've got all the knowledge I'll probably ever need to make a lot of money right now, but if you spend time doing the wrong things or nothing at all you end up like me.

Wondering generalist vs meaningful specific

Books are good for becoming a wondering generalist. But to become a meaningful specific, you need experience. One can read 100 books on swimming, but the only way to become a good swimmer is to swim… and swim a lot… and tinker with technique to improve, always getting just a little bit better than the time before.

So you did a few “wrong things” or “nothing at all” - that’s in the past. The “end up like me” sounds like a voice of frustration (rightfully so!).

But is this just a self reflection or a call to action in your own mind?

I liked the other thread aimed at younger forum visitors saying give up social media, I myself wouldn't say I'm addicted to social media but I'd certainly say I've now built up an addiction to "consuming" irrelevant information.

Dopamine addiction … all too common.

There's also a tendency to over analyse things, as Mike said further up in his post that if he sees another competitor doing the same it kind of pisses him off and invokes negative thoughts. I'm the same.

Analysis paralysis … yes, all too common as well.

I think that there's a lot that can be said for experience in business but that can sometimes work against you, the experiences I've gone through have eroded a lot of the self belief away that my younger self used to have.

This is good stuff. Are you saying that you are so experienced that you are now seeing clearly why something is about to NOT work? How could you turn that around? Because I am here to tell you there is something far worse than “too much experience” and it is “no experience at all”.

You'd think I'd be eager to make amends to past mistakes, even a few days ago I went the shop with my Wife to buy something and I knew there was only £27 left in my account, thankfully what we put in the basket came to just under £26 as I was praying I wouldn't have to suffer the embarrassment of my card declining.

I'm down on what I need to be earning each month, stress levels are through the roof with it and its causing issues with her. Does it make me go out and get a part time on the side? or even get back in front of a computer and start doing outreach? Cold Call maybe? Send an email? Send someone a DM?

Nope, i get back in the chair and tweak something on my website, or try and make the outreach message better. I'll occasionally get a referral from one of my clients and pick up and extra client or two but thats it.

Honestly, it sounds so stressful to live this way that it brings back memories to when I had nothing… I hated it so much, it’s impossible to put into words. I feel your pain reading your post. I feel you as if there was this pressure on my chest. It’s so awful.

And since you aren’t a young buck anymore… you should be in your prime earning years!

One of my higher paying clients wanted to delay her new campaign last week and start it in June, meaning her payment I was expecting was delayed. I'd have probably earned more money working at Mcdonalds this month now. I've literally had to tell her that I have another client in her area who wants to work with us (they don't) and if she could pay at least 50% now. Shes said yes and last night I emailed her the invoice, still no payment but I don't want to sound too desperate but really need to get it paid.

That’s not entrepreneurshIp, that’s STEP 1 in my thread. There is a better way. There is a better life. And YOU can do it and get it.

An 18 year old kid could probably take over my company and build it up to £10k a month in no time, does he have more experience than me? nope. He does have no fear, he'll take action on what he needs to do.

Can you elaborate? What do you do? Why would someone so young with no experience be able to seemingly run circles around you? I am confused.

At this moment it feels like the only thing thats going to jolt me is a health scare where I get told I've got something bad to get me out this rut. It's bizarre, it's like my hand will not move the mouse to do what needs to be done.

Mindset.

Decades ago I was a boxer. Not a great one but my father was able to pull strings and get me in withe best coach, a coach that trained two world champions. He wouldn’t take on kids like me without my dad’s connections and favours … but I got lucky. If you consider it luck that I had to train 2-3 hours a day, with no breaks and feeling literally feverish. Never before and I don’t think ever after… have I done so much with my body or was in that much pain. But I progressed fast and within months, I was in small competitions.

I asked my coach “How did you manage to train two world champions?”
He said the trick is in picking fights that you will win but with some difficulty. Then build up on those, one after another and so on...

Just like that, you need some wins! Small wins will do, but a whole bunch of them in a row. It’ll build up your momentum. Momentum will create the desire to do more, you won’t hesitate and like a snowball…

Sounds crazy but its lasted years now, at least when COVID was happened I could hide behind that as excuse.

In 20 years time I still want what I always have, freedom. I'm 42 never had a job working for someone and I'm completely against trading 5 days for 2 of a weekend and waiting for retirement. My actions say the opposite though.

It seems you are self aware. Now the hard questions:
- Do you feel ”free” today in spite of never having a job? I am going to guess “no”.
- What are you going to do today, after reading this post to change your life’s trajectory? Anything?
- Lastly, how can this forum help you get traction?

42 isn’t 20, but is Not 80 either. It’s just a bloody number. It’s what you do today, the decisions you make today that’ll define your next 40 years! Oh shit… did my inner voice just get out unfiltered again?

 

[Two Dog]

Why not play the game where the payoff is bigger and the odds are way better? And the service isn’t heavily commoditized?

That's where the niching stage comes in. There's endless sites like Upwork, Fiverr, Task Rabbit, Angie's List, etc. that all act as middlemen for professionals providing services to other people. All pretty darn sizable businesses to my mind. There's far more that offer specialized services you'd never know existed if you weren't in that field.

I hired a guy last summer to shoot drone video for a residential home we were selling. There's an endless number of people offering similar services especially with the Covid RE boom, but he stood out.

Why him?

He had a great website offering canned packages delivered in record time. Everything from drone footage to 3D walkthroughs. The incredible turnaround time came from having three F/T editors who would crank through all the footage that he shot and turn it into a handful of standardized offerings. It happened that he really enjoyed operating the actual drone (including interior fly throughs), but he could easily have hired someone for the field work as well.

 

[Isaac Odongo]

I was at a loss on how to respond to Paul David. But Antifragile has hit close to home. And the response is great.

My personal take away.

One can read 100 books on swimming, but the only way to become a good swimmer is to swim… and swim a lot… and tinker with technique to improve, always getting just a little bit better than the time before.

Actions speak louder than words. Act Assess Adjust. Repeat. Repeat. Sometimes it is a major adjustment, like a whole shift from one discipline to another. But most times we may just improve.

I learn here what is always said. Business is about action. Relentless action.

you need some wins! Small wins will do, but a whole bunch of them in a row. It’ll build up your momentum. Momentum will create the desire to do more,

I think Andy Black started For those who haven't made a sale thread. For a reason similar. Startup stage. Take off and awareness and customers.

 

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[maesterov]

I think Andy Black started For those who haven't made a sale thread. For a reason similar. Startup stage. Take off and awareness and customers.

link to the thread to make it easier for folks(starting the day by adding a bit of value, what can I say)
NOTABLE! - CHAT - For those who haven't made a sale yet... | The Entrepreneur Forum: Talk Fastlane Business (thefastlaneforum.com)

 

[Andy Black]

I love how it takes me like 17 paragraphs to say something that Andy can say in five sentences.

You have a gift my friend.

Thanks. That's only in writing. When I talk I ramble and go all over the place.

Declaring that I was going to make X dollars in X time period was a useless goal.

In reality I now realize - the real focus should be this:

1. Find something that works by trying out a bunch of stuff
2. Pick a number of times to do that thing so that you reach a particular outcome
3. Do it consistently, every day
4. Get creative in how you can scale that thing that works (people, software, creative solutions, etc)

Keep doing the right things and the results will follow.

Don't make the results your goal. Make doing the actions needed to get the results your goal.

Go to the gym 4 times a week.

Send 10 outbound LinkedIn messages a day.

Etc.

 

[Andy Black]

Hmm. Thought I'd reply Mike...

if you jump into a crowd like “digital marketing agency” or “freelancer” you’re fighting stiff odds.

Maybe lots of people start it, but not many figure out how to get a consistent stream of leads, signup clients, deliver the service, retain clients, get referrals and repeat business, niche down, scale up with people, processes, technology, etc. All the things any successful business owner does.

If we’re going to spend our precious time playing this game of business, why should we choose the game that has 1 million other people on twitter saying..

Who cares what people on Twitter are saying? I've picked up clients by being in the same room as them while on a course. How are those folks doing on Twitter picking up bona-fide business clients? Or are they selling to people trying to get started in business?

Why not play the game where the payoff is bigger and the odds are way better? And the service isn’t heavily commoditized?

I don't think the service is heavily commoditized. Regardless, I've directed a few friends towards providing digital marketing services because it's in demand, gets you rubbing shoulders with business owners, can be scaled in its own right, and is a great skill to have for other endeavors. I tell them it's a great way to get paid to learn and to get paid to get better at business. As for scaling ... that's often down to the jockey not the horse.

But That’s why I’m not interesting in the whole freelance digital marketing gig anymore personally.

That's totally cool. I'm just pointing out that it's not oversaturate or commoditised. Nothing ever is if you approach it right.

 

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[mikecarlooch]

Hmm. Thought I'd reply Mike...


Maybe lots of people start it, but not many figure out how to get a consistent stream of leads, signup clients, deliver the service, retain clients, get referrals and repeat business, niche down, scale up with people, processes, technology, etc. All the things any successful business owner does.


Who cares what people on Twitter are saying? I've picked up clients by being in the same room as them while on a course. How are those folks doing on Twitter picking up bona-fide business clients? Or are they selling to people trying to get started in business?


I don't think the service is heavily commoditized. Regardless, I've directed a few friends towards providing digital marketing services because it's in demand, gets you rubbing shoulders with business owners, can be scaled in its own right, and is a great skill to have for other endeavors. I tell them it's a great way to get paid to learn and to get paid to get better at business. As for scaling ... that's often down to the jockey not the horse.


That's totally cool. I'm just pointing out that it's not oversaturate or commoditised. Nothing ever is if you approach it right.

I completely respect this Andy, getting that first bit of recurring cash when I was in video editing was super cool and definitely opened up what's possible to me (as MJ calls it i believe, the point of no return in entrepreneurship)

From my personal experiences, I tend to lean towards what @Kak says on this matter - you don't have to start a small business before you start a big business. I'm looking more in the ballpark of getting insight into a problem that maybe doesn't have AS many competitors, that I can come in and completely disrupt.. maybe 16 instead of however many thousands (I know you say this doesn't bother you, for me it's a little difficult to tread forward knowing just how many people are doing the same thing).

Maybe for others they can scale a marketing agency to large numbers, it just doesn't feel like the game I'd like to play.

 

[Black_Dragon43]

I don't think the service is heavily commoditized. Regardless, I've directed a few friends towards providing digital marketing services because it's in demand, gets you rubbing shoulders with business owners, can be scaled in its own right, and is a great skill to have for other endeavors. I tell them it's a great way to get paid to learn and to get paid to get better at business. As for scaling ... that's often down to the jockey not the horse.

I don’t want to butt heads with anyone, but every business will have its own difficulty. If there’s little competition, there’s a reason for that. The market may be too small, the market may rely heavily on relationships and personal network and so on.

So yeah, marketing agencies are crowded. Being a coach is crowded. But then you have people like Andrew Tate (the most recent one) who have built a personal brand that enabled them to stand head and shoulders above everyone else and scale to $50M/yr in just a few short years.

So it’s possible. But it’s not possible if your idea is creating crappy content or spamming people’s inboxes. At least with these crowded fields you know what you need to do to be successful. With an “innovation” you have to figure that out AND then execute on it.

 

[Two Dog]

From my personal experiences, I tend to lean towards what @Kak says on this matter - you don't have to start a small business before you start a big business.

Hmmm, I'd have to say that my opinion is completely the opposite. Starting is easy; growing a large business with little to no prior experience is damn near impossible. That comes from having met a couple hundred successful entrepreneurs over the years including a handful that had IPOs or were acquired. It was notable that basically ALL of them had started one more earlier businesses (usually several) with varying degrees of success along with having an early mentor who provided some kind of guidance.

The problem is the entrepreneur is *always* the weak link. Without experience, you have a hard time even deciding what direction to take or who's advice to take. As you grow the business, it's inevitable that you'll have made operating decisions that work for a certain size company that are completely inappropriate for the next stage. Many times it's just too difficult to change systems at that point and it stagnates.

Simple example: You've grown a burrito shop to ten locations. Most excellent. Along the way, you've developed internal systems, hiring procedures and vendors that can provide product to ten locations. After getting excited about opening 25 locations, you realize the internal systems can't handle it, the existing vendors can't supply enough product and the established management team knows nada about operating a 25 unit business much less building it.

That leaves you with tearing out everything and effectively starting from scratch building out new systems, developing new relationships and hiring people capable of building and operating a 25 unit enterprise. Doing that is pretty painful - financially and emotionally - and is a major reason that many "pretty damn successful" entrepreneurs settle for status quo. The only way of avoiding that is knowing what the future will require which is the definition of experience. Advisors help, but you'll always hear conflicting advice and you really don't know enough to make an informed decision.

It would be interesting to hear from other people who know entrepreneurs who've broken through the various growth stages.

 

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[Kak]

Starting is easy; growing a large business with little to no prior experience is damn near impossible.

Totally agreed.

The details here matter though.

“No prior experience.”

No one. Not one person is born with this mystical “prior experience.”

So where does that amazing & priceless experience come from?

I raised millions for a govtech enterprise business at 23 and had 60+ year old multimillionaire lawyers and consultants on my payroll.

 

[BizyDad]

Totally agreed.

The details here matter though.

“No prior experience.”

No one. Not one person is born with this mystical “prior experience.”

So where does that amazing & priceless experience come from?

I raised millions for a govtech enterprise business at 23 and had 60+ year old multimillionaire lawyers and consultants on my payroll.

Behold the power of the Fastlane Forum. This man joined the Forum at 21.

Anyone on this forum more than 2 years and not raising millions in capital and hiring well-to-do experts is just straight slacking y'all.

If you need to find mentors and gain experience, there is no better place than right here.

Another lesson... Sell to governments because they don't care how old you are.

Some might think I'm joking... But I'm not. Lol. I wanna get me some of that sweet sweet gubbument dollah dollahs.

 

[Antifragile]

Hmmm, I'd have to say that my opinion is completely the opposite. Starting is easy; growing a large business with little to no prior experience is damn near impossible. That comes from having met a couple hundred successful entrepreneurs over the years including a handful that had IPOs or were acquired. It was notable that basically ALL of them had started one more earlier businesses (usually several) with varying degrees of success along with having an early mentor who provided some kind of guidance.

The problem is the entrepreneur is *always* the weak link. Without experience, you have a hard time even deciding what direction to take or who's advice to take. As you grow the business, it's inevitable that you'll have made operating decisions that work for a certain size company that are completely inappropriate for the next stage. Many times it's just too difficult to change systems at that point and it stagnates.

Simple example: You've grown a burrito shop to ten locations. Most excellent. Along the way, you've developed internal systems, hiring procedures and vendors that can provide product to ten locations. After getting excited about opening 25 locations, you realize the internal systems can't handle it, the existing vendors can't supply enough product and the established management team knows nada about operating a 25 unit business much less building it.

That leaves you with tearing out everything and effectively starting from scratch building out new systems, developing new relationships and hiring people capable of building and operating a 25 unit enterprise. Doing that is pretty painful - financially and emotionally - and is a major reason that many "pretty damn successful" entrepreneurs settle for status quo. The only way of avoiding that is knowing what the future will require which is the definition of experience. Advisors help, but you'll always hear conflicting advice and you really don't know enough to make an informed decision.

It would be interesting to hear from other people who know entrepreneurs who've broken through the various growth stages.

What you write sounds reasonable because it's close to what most consider to be "truth".

I take issue with this advice. It basically says that entrepreneurship is like sports, it has a linear progression. Meaning that you must learn to walk before you run and when you are running... you'll tap out on speed.

In my experience (and I mean my own businesses, not "having met a couple hundred successful entrepreneurs over the years") that is not the case. Lucky for us, we are not bound as entrepreneurs by the same rules as athletes. We have geometrical progression.

To demonstrate this point, I'll refer to my own thread:

GOLD! - EXECUTION - 8 Steps To Help You Plan for Business Success, a How-To Guide

Planning is essential to the success of any business. But what exactly should you be planning for? And how do you know if you're over-planning? There is no one way, but it is better to have a method than not. Before we go on, I lied in the title - there are no 8 steps, there never are the 8...

www.thefastlaneforum.com

And in particular, this image:

I do not need to experience White-Water to know that I am about to hit it after "fun" stage of my restaurant business. You can already make changes to the team you have, to the systems you are building to accommodate surviving and thriving from White-Water into Predictable Success stage. When @mikecarlooch says he plans to start a bigger business, he doesn't need to start a food truck burrito place first, he can have a goal of creating a chain of restaurants from day 1. Nothing is preventing him from planning this and executing appropriately.

That's the beauty of business. You can prepare for it without having to learn lessons the hard way on your own skin. You can anticipate challenges because plenty came before you, you can learn form them.

Put it differently, the issue I take with your post is what you said here: "That leaves you with tearing out everything and effectively starting from scratch building out new systems, developing new relationships and hiring people capable of building and operating a 25 unit enterprise."

What you wrote is an example of lack of prior preparation!

That is not to say experience isn't important. I've said it many times, experience is extremely important. As I said (quoting myself here again):

Wow. I am humbled by how popular this thread became overnight. Thank you all.

But there has been some disagreement, which is healthy! Allow me to push back on "experience is for suckers, I can do this out of sheer will and look at me making money fast, winning winning winning!" nonsense.

How important is experience? How important is slow/long planning?​

Some people think that if you aren't failing, you aren't trying hard enough. That my method is too slow. That deliberate approach to improving yourself is outdated and all the internet businesses are taking over.

Creativity (even in how you make money) requires a muse, not experience, not slow thinking / planning. True/false?

Hmm...

What do the following projects have in common?

• Jaws movie
• Sydney Opera House, &
• Electric Lady recording studio

All projects believed creativity is something mysterious and spontaneous. It cannot be scheduled or planned.

“Necessity is the mother of invention”

And succeeded too.

These sexy stories of projects that had no plan, no budget and …

Somehow they not only made it, but are cemented in history.

Why do planning when you “work best under stress”?

Wouldn’t it be better to let what’s natural just be?

No No NO

Daniel Kahlerman wrote in Thinking, Fast and Slow that using reference-class forecasting is "the single most important piece of advice regarding how to increase accuracy in forecasting through improved methods".

Let's back up a little ...


The problem here is that projects that fail miserably are forgotten.

Projects that run into trouble but succeed are remembered and celebrated.

Survivorship bias. Overlooking those projects that failed is a bad mistake.

Sydney Opera House story:

The city held an international competition to design an opera house, and it was won by a Danish architect named Jørn Utzon. He was a relatively unknown when he won this competition. The final bill was 1,400% over estimate, one of the largest cost overruns for a building in history!
And the whole thing destroyed Jørn Utzon's career.
Have you heard of his other projects? Exactly.

But you may counter that Jaws was 300% over budget, no experience, no plan and yet somehow box office made more. It made careers. The odds of that happening are 20% based on a sample of over 2,000 projects.

80% chance it’ll be over budget and under expected value. That’s bad odds!

A Canadian story:

Note that all Olympic Games suffer from "eternal beginner syndrome" because they are done every 4 years and in different countries, no experienced team does it often enough. Each country is a beginner.

• 1976 Montreal Olympics, result?
• 720% over budget
• Montreal Gazette said “Olympic stadium cost so much it took 30 years for Quebec to pay it off”

How much worse could it be?

My take remains and is supported by data:

Creative process is *slow*, *painstaking* and intensely *iterative*.

It applies to your small business as much as to the little "lego" parts of the enterprise you are building. It literally applies to everything.

Just like a world class surgeon will always command a $7-figure "salary" after "wasting years getting experience"... but if you needed that surgery, would you rather have someone who didn't train as long? nope.

Still in doubt?

Aristotle said that experience is "The fruit of years" and argued that it is the source of what he called "phronesis" - the "practical wisdom" that allows us to see what is good for people and make it happen, which Aristotle saw as the highest "intellectual virtue".

Next time you fly somewhere, remember that you want the flight attendant to be the optimist, not the pilot. Can you imagine hearing from the pilot "I am optimistic about our ability to get there, I took an online course last night"?

I rest my case.

We agree that experience is important. The whole world agrees on that. Elon can say at 11AM "I am starting a new company and need seed money", by noon he'll have a $ billion dollars. If I do that, I won't! Experience matters.

The exception I take (and it is something we discuss often on this forum), that you cannot start a bigger business, start as a freelancer small and "learn the ropes". As you put it "darn near impossible" without prior experience. Sure, that may work for some, but it's not the only way. You can get some of that experience from a job! Other from books.

Most of all... and this is a biggie for me... ready for it? Drumrolls please... revealing the biggest secret in 3... 2... 1...

In all the years I've been an employee & an entrepreneur, I've gotten the experience I needed right after I needed it the most.

 

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[Private Witt]

Another lesson... Sell to governments because they don't care how old you are.

Some might think I'm joking... But I'm not. Lol. I wanna get me some of that sweet sweet gubbument dollah dollahs.

KAK the real inspiration behind War Dogs.

View: https://youtu.be/bCAPURWHHmk

 

[Kak]

In all the years I've been an employee & an entrepreneur, I've gotten the experience I needed right after I needed it the most.

Folks. Live your lives this way.

I literally just swapped out the rear air suspension on my wife’s Mercedes. Turned a $5000 job into a $800 dollar job. Did I know what I was doing? I do now.