Will the traditional College campus be a thing of the past?

[mars]

Last year, I sat in a meeting at our yearly sales meeting with our current CEO. At the time I was working for a company that provides services to for-profit schools(DeVry, University of Phoenix, Everest, other sleazy schools). At the time of the meeting we were discussing how MOOCS were going to effect our industry. He was extremely worried to what the future meant for schools and our business if MOOCS started to get more and more traction. It still seems a lot of people have never heard of a MOOCs, but he knew it was just a matter of time.

The gentleman that created the ethernet predicted that within 20 years, the traditional college campus will be a thing of the past. The only campuses that will stand the test of time will be Ivy League campuses. Must of the others will be turned in communities for the affluent. Ha!

What are your thoughts?

Is there any reason now that anyone can't be well educated?

Example - http://www.nopaymba.com/

 

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[DawnW]

I think some colleges wont survive, maybe even a lot. There's an increase of supply and therefore competition but I don't see all non Ivy league colleges closing their doors. Obviously education is the theme for higher education but there are other things folks are looking to gain, experience from the traditional college experience.

 

[Esquire]

An Ivy league campus is a good place to pursue an MRS degree.

I don't see that changing anytime soon.

 

[zerobrainwash]

Besides, some people go into universities to become academics and say what you want, they have their place in the world too. Lots of breaking theories and inventions come from these guys. There will be a reduction in physical institutions but they won't disappear. MOOCs are definitely challenging status quo though, the guy in the video is rightly worried but like with most technologies its impact is exaggerated.

 

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[quanttastic]

I am a professor, so I have given this issue a lot of thought. I am upfront with my position so that you can write my viewpoint off as bias if you wish.

I don't see it happening anytime soon, if ever. This forum has a unique group of people that are willing to take risks. Most students would prefer more of a standard "slow-lane" lifestyle. The premium for having a degree has never been higher.

Also there is a ton of social pressure to go to college. If kids don't want to college their parents might be unhappy, or they might want to go for the social aspect.

MOOCs were the rage for awhile, but have pretty much fizzled out. Studies have shown that they have an abysmal completion rate, and students generally hate them.

 

[zerobrainwash]

The premium for having a degree has never been higher.

MOOCs were the rage for awhile, but have pretty much fizzled out. Studies have shown that they have an abysmal completion rate, and students generally hate them.

Interesting thoughts. I wonder why you say that there is a premium for having a degree? I'm currently a programmer and most people don't use the knowledge they gained from university and clients/employees are more interested in what you can do and not your degree. I imagine it's the same for most fields thus making the degree not as valuable as many make it out to be.

In regards to MOOC completion rates, you have to be self-motivated to learn. I know many people register to several courses, test out first few lessons and then either stick or quit. Thus these rates should not be taken at their face value. Completely agree on the unjustified MOOCs hype though but I'm a big fan of them nevertheless.

 

[quanttastic]

Interesting thoughts. I wonder why you say that there is a premium for having a degree? I'm currently a programmer and most people don't use the knowledge they gained from university and clients/employees are more interested in what you can do and not your degree. I imagine it's the same for most fields thus making the degree not as valuable as many make it out to be.

In regards to MOOC completion rates, you have to be self-motivated to learn. I know many people register to several courses, test out first few lessons and then either stick or quit. Thus these rates should not be taken at their face value. Completely agree on the unjustified MOOCs hype though but I'm a big fan of them nevertheless.

By wage premium I mean the amount that college grads earn over non-college grads, on average. This chart shows the widening amounts over time.

Overall, the rate of return on a college education is still very high:

Once again, it is really important to keep in mind that the people on this forum are not "average" in any way. For many forum-goers, college might not be the best option and I would guess it won't maximize income. But for the "average" person it is still a very good bet and one of the best investments you can make.

source for first graph: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/02/11/wage-premium-from-college-is-said-to-be-up/

source for second graph: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/06/07/the-premium-from-a-college-degree/?_r=0

 

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[MasterOfMyFate]

I don't think MOOC's will replace traditional college any time soon (Maybe more in the US however as your college costs are crazy high). Where they might grow is in developing countries, but then again it is harder to access them there where they would be truly valuable.

Firstly, most people doing a MOOC course are graduates already. The average age is also 26-30. This doesn't really take away much profit from colleges as these people would most likely not be getting further education otherwise.

The numbers thrown around are also inflated as most sign ups do not take part in the course at all and only a tiny minority go through all of the course material.

I'm currently a programmer and most people don't use the knowledge they gained from university and clients/employees are more interested in what you can do and not your degree.

I'm almost certain that this applies mostly to programmers, I get the impression that in most professions it is harder to show what you can do and even bad employees with a degree can find a job in a large corporation.

Colleges main source of income is young people, as things are at the minute the majority of young people would not even consider an alternate route. So until the mindset of people is changed or MOOC's become a more recognized qualification, I don't see them replacing college just yet.

 

[Esquire]

By wage premium I mean the amount that college grads earn over non-college grads, on average. This chart shows the widening amounts over time.

Overall, the rate of return on a college education is still very high:

Once again, it is really important to keep in mind that the people on this forum are not "average" in any way. For many forum-goers, college might not be the best option and I would guess it won't maximize income. But for the "average" person it is still a very good bet and one of the best investments you can make.

source for first graph: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/02/11/wage-premium-from-college-is-said-to-be-up/

source for second graph: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/06/07/the-premium-from-a-college-degree/?_r=0

I'm sorry ... but I have to cry "Bullshit" whenever I see these "value of a college degree" charts paraded about.

One of the first things you learn about in high school science ... is the difference between a direct correlation ... and an indirect correlation.

So the first question is ... if college graduates on average earn "more" than those without a college degree ... is that BECAUSE of the college degree ...? (direct correlation)

Or is it because of something else ...? (indirect correlation)

My money says something else.

In other words ... suppose I took a group of high school students from Greenwich Connecticut ... who went to college ... and a group of high school kids ... from Compton California ... who did not go to college ... and then looked at the difference between their earnings ... would you say the difference in earnings was "BECAUSE" they went to college ...?

Not a chance.

Now that is an extreme example (obviously) ... but it illustrates a point.

The children of wealthy well-connected families ... go to college at a higher rate ... than do the children from poor, disenfranchised families.

Their ultimate success has far less to do with "going to college" ... as it does the connections and prestige of their families ... and the fact that more successful families (on average) tend to have higher mental aptitudes than those who fare poorly.

Another argument might be advanced that people who go to college are more ambitious than those who do not.

Someone who is committed to a path of self improvement is far more likely to succeed than someone who is content to flip burgers.

I could go on ... and on ... and on ... with plausible direct correlations.

The point is ...

College graduates do (in fact) earn more than those who go to college ... no argument there.

But let's not kid ourselves ... it is predominantly an indirect correlation.

It is NOT because of the college itself.

A degree in Anthropology ... will NOT improve your lifetime earning capacity ... beyond what you could have achieved without it.

Now ... with that said ...

I love learning.

I have a doctorate from a top-20 school.

I've got nothing against education.

But I do have a problem with schools luring in kids to pile up student debt with false promises of higher earning capacities.

For most kids ... college ... is an unmitigated financial disaster.

 

[Esquire]

P.S. it has also been shown that people who play polo (on average) earn 50 times more money than those who do not.

So if I spend all my money on a thoroughbred horse and join a polo team ... well my projected lifetime earnings increase 5000% ...?

The college argument is no different.

 

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[AndrewNC]

P.S. it has also been shown that people who play polo (on average) earn 50 times more money than those who do not.

So if I spend all my money on a thoroughbred horse and join a polo team ... well my projected lifetime earnings increase 5000% ...?

Actually not a bad idea if you really think about it...

 

[eliquid]

I do digital marketing for private faith based colleges, so I feel like I can weigh in on this some.

I don't feel that MOOCs will be changing the university campus, but I do feel that as colleges and universities continue to move more and more into online platforms themselves ( this is where I specialize in ), the typical student won't be hitting a campus as much unless its for hybird or special clinical type of stuff in the near future.

Some of the schools I work with are almost entirely online now and their cost isn't higher for out of state enrollment as it is with other schools.

I will also tell you this, I don't have a college degree either...

 

[quanttastic]

I'm sorry ... but I have to cry "Bullshit" whenever I see these "value of a college degree" charts paraded about.

One of the first things you learn about in high school science ... is the difference between a direct correlation ... and an indirect correlation.

So the first question is ... if college graduates on average earn "more" than those without a college degree ... is that BECAUSE of the college degree ...? (direct correlation)

Or is it because of something else ...? (indirect correlation)

My money says something else.

In other words ... suppose I took a group of high school students from Greenwich Connecticut ... who went to college ... and a group of high school kids ... from Compton California ... who did not go to college ... and then looked at the difference between their earnings ... would you say the difference in earnings was "BECAUSE" they went to college ...?

I agree with you that some of the gap is due to selection of "skilled" or motivated people, and not necessarily an improvement in human capital. However there are many jobs that someone simply could not obtain without a college degree, regardless of their innate talent level, such as engineering, accounting, medicine, law, economics etc. For these people I would indeed say that their earnings increased from college because these opportunities wouldn't be available to them without a degree.

Hopefully college taught them the basics that they needed to succeed in these jobs. But even if it didn't, companies simply wouldn't hire someone without a degree in the first place. While some people have the risk appetite to start a business, many do not. So even though many of the students in my example are highly intelligent, hard working and motivated, they are much more comfortable being an employee than a boss and would seek out "employment" somewhere. Going to college gives them better "employment" options.

For most kids ... college ... is an unmitigated financial disaster.

I respectfully disagree with this. For some it is, but I think in general the student loan problem is overblown. The most recent statistics I have seen show about 30% of students graduate with 0 debt, while 70% borrow some amount of money. For these 70% that borrow money, the average debt is about $30k per borrower. This is the cost of a car. Given the earnings differential this investment is way worth it.

Now are there people that are worse off financially for going to college? Certainly so, and while a minority it is unfortunately an increasing number as the cost of college increases. However I think that these people are in the distinct minority, and most people are better off for going.

Anyway I am sorry for dragging this thread so far off the OP's topic of interest. All this to say that I think that in monetary terms for the average student college is still worth it. However even if it wasn't, I think social pressures would still keep many students enrolled in traditional college options rather than MOOCs or alternatives.

I actually think fewer people should attend college, and more should go into trades and/or open their own business. From your post it sounds like we agree on this point. Unfortunately many students are "herded" into college because either that is what everyone else they know does, or they just don't know any other way, or for other various social/parental pressures.

 

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[hellolin]

The professor is right, a college experience is a good sell point and the traditional ways of going to college will never disappear, but the MOOCs enable guys like us who is at this forum to take risks and gets our education done at little or no cost, verses being a slow lane student who perfers the comfortable way of taking out massive debts to get a piece of paper. Coming out of high school, I knew that I wasn't going to learn anything even if I did went to college, so I went off to the military for 5 years. Soon in 2 weeks I will be graduating from college and I'd say that I end up learning a lot while I am in college because I know how valuable the teachings were because I was in the military for 5 years, I didn't go to college for the experience but for the actual learning, plus uncle Sam and the state paid for my education in full plus some extra spending money. But for masters degree I plan to take online business classes on my own throughout my working career, networking can be done on forums like this or linkedin nowadays, does not always need the frame of a MBA school anymore unless it's top 10 in the country like Harvard or UofC.