The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

[MetalGear]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1236050761580244993

View: https://twitter.com/AnthemRespect/status/1236050761580244993?s=20

And that's why their stock went from around ~$50 down to $27...
I wonder how many people bought puts after seeing this

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Coronavirus Trivia...

Interesting (according to reported data) that King County, WA has more CV fatalities than Beijing China. I'm not buying it.

 

[Kevin88660]

As a public health crisis, I defer my opinion to medical specialists. There are too much conflicting information on this.

On financial market I believe now it is more of an opportunity. I share Ray Dalio’s opinion that financial market is quite resilient against death count in a pandemic judging from the Spanish flu history and its impact on securities.

China has the ability to act Fact. Developed countries have the medical resources and organizational capacities to handle this. The danger could be in the less developed nations.

My choice of financial instruments is AMLP etf. My Strategy is a mixture of investing and trading. I will increase position size as price decline and decrease position size as price rallies. As of now I am down $20k marked to market betting against the virus.

 

[BizyDad]

Women charged after Sydney supermarket toilet roll row

Two women have been charged after a row about toilet paper in a western Sydney Woolworths allegedly turned ...

www.9news.com.au

Woah. Sydney still has a Woolworths? How come nobody is talking about that?

 

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[.B.]

Here is the thing. Regardless of the numbers reported or postulated. Hospitals in China and Italy have been overrun with serious and critical patients with corona virus. This even as the total number infected has been a small proportion of the population. Heck, China built an extra 2600 bed hospital to deal with all of this. To put this in perspective, this is probably as many hospital beds in all of Phoenix and surrounding communities combined.

Based on this alone, no matter the figure put forth by the CDC or WHO or whomever, I have reason to see this as severe and significant.

I’m not listening to anyone talking. I’m paying attention to action, trends, behaviors, and impacts. Does anything else really matter?

And then you can go one step further, pay also attention to what China didn't do:


"
When the 1st hospital was finished [in Wuhan], the number of deaths had continued to follow its exponential trend (500 deaths on the 4th of February)
So they could have decided to build a 3rd hospital with the available workforce that had just finished the first hospital....
They could even have decided to build another 2 or 3 hospitals (come on it's China, they do have the resources and capacity to coordinate mass of workers and engineers...fast)

But instead, they decided to limit themselves to those 2 new hospitals.
And now they send people suspected to have coronavirus to the other existing hospitals in Wuhan (in contradiction to their first tactical decision...)
Although they know that it will accelerate the spread of the virus to other patients in those hospitals.

It seems they decided, that the contamination is so large and it spreads so fast that building thousands of beds won't change much...

So instead they decide to make the lockdown in Wuhan in tighter cells "

(extract from this post: HOT TOPIC - The Wuhan Coronavirus Discussion Thread... )

 

[GuitarManDan]

Coronavirus Trivia...

Interesting (according to reported data) that King County, WA has more CV fatalities than Beijing China. I'm not buying it.

It seems very sketchy that the total number of infected people in China has hovered around 80k for the last few weeks while other countries reporting (Italy, South Korea, etc) keep skyrocketing.

Once I saw the video of people fist fighting in Italy for the last loaf of bread in a supermarket, and everyone in the US was saying how it wasn't a big deal (while the economy was tanking), I went out and prepared myself with supplies and a few weeks worth of food and water. I figure even if it isn't a big deal, people are people and once the numbers start increasing in the US we'll see similar trends.

Funny enough, it seems like the same people giving me a hard time for being prepared are the same ones who told me I was crazy for quitting a safe and secure job a few years back.

 

[.B.]

I followed the numbers of daily deaths from COVID in Italy over the last 10 days.

It still is early to be sure that it will continue growing at the same rate.
But if it does, if you do the maths, it can go very bad very fast.
At least if people continue to “do business as usual” and don't take measures to reduce the spread of the virus.

I talk about "easy measures to implement" in the next post.
That's why I decided to post this today and not wait for the numbers of Monday.
Because some of those itiniatives are best thought over during the weekend.

The left column is the total number of deaths reported on that date.
The right column is the projection with the hypothesis of a 50% daily increase (from 04/03):


And several other European countries have the same situation as in Italy, they just don't know it yet because their government has not been testing massively yet.

E.g. in my country, they only just started testing this week, after the carnival holidays (instead of in January like most should have done)...

And in 5 days, they already found 169 cases out of 771 tests!!!
Not a big surprise if you let people infect each other for more than a month.
(source: Coronavirus en Belgique : 60 nouvelles infections détectées, 169 cas au total (carte))

And after 770 tests...they already ran out of kits to do the tests...no comment.
Just one more blunder.

So without test kits, they will still not see how bad the situation already is in the country.

And so, they will still force everybody to go to the office.
Even though in a service society many could work from home.
They will keep the schools open, etc etc

So the virus will keep spreading faster and faster, unless we try to do sthg about it (next post)

 

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[farmer79]

Women charged after Sydney supermarket toilet roll row

Two women have been charged after a row about toilet paper in a western Sydney Woolworths allegedly turned ...

www.9news.com.au

Lol. The problem is definitely not the virus.

 

[.B.]

Which initiatives can we all encourage, to reduce the speed of spread of the virus?
(sorry in advance for my "French English")

Here is an interesting short interview from a "top expert from Harvard on viruses"

View: https://youtu.be/iDelUkpFm60


I share that guy's point of view of the situation (i.e. not good):

In particular, it is obvious that we can't count on most governments to take the right actions to limit the spread of the virus.
(They just do one blunder after the other, with a few exceptions like Singapore)

And in that case, each individual should take responsibility for taking initiatives at his/her level without waiting for governments guidelines.

Taking initiatives doesn't mean "going in panic mode",
but instead, organize things to limit the speed with which the virus spreads, without impacting the economy too much (see examples of initiatives below)

We have the chance that we have the internet in this crisis.
We can learn from each other, inform others, think for ourselves and start taking the right actions.

There are simple ways that shouldn't impact the economy too much and that will help slow down the increasing speed of contagion, e.g.:

- do online shopping (also for groceries), instead of going to the supermarket where people cough around and share viruses

- work from home when possible

- don't do physical meetings if they can be done with videoconferences.
Also with friends and families.
Not as fun as being able to hug them, but more fun than having to bury them.

- if you are a manager/ business owner, have the courage to let your employees work from home if it is feasible

- if you are a manager/ business owner, don’t count sick days during the pandemic so that people don’t have an incentive to go to work and infect others when they are sick

- people who cough should stay home/ work from home during the pandemic

- …

And hopefully that way we don't all get sick at the same time, and so there will be a bed available for you at the hospital when you get sick and need a respirator.

 

[Vigilante]

So they announced 2 deaths in my home state of Florida, kids. Here’s the problem....
The two deaths they announced today were two different people from two different counties than the supposed “only two confirmed cases” the state reported just two days ago.

 

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[Strategery]

First case in Lexington, KY, just north of where I live. I was literally there last weekend, buying a bunch of MRE's and ammo in Cabela's (I know how to redneck). No one looked concerned.

So they announced 2 deaths in my home state of Florida, kids. Here’s the problem....
The two deaths they announced today were two different people from two different counties than the supposed “only two confirmed cases” the state reported just two days ago.

 

[NovaAria]

I will let you fellas argue over whether this is a nothing burger or not, but as someone who's father has a heart condition, this worries me. 10% of the confirmed cases in Lombardy needed an ICU.
Locking down cities beats having to give hundreds of people extensive care at the same time.

 

[MTEE1985]

So they announced 2 deaths in my home state of Florida, kids. Here’s the problem....
The two deaths they announced today were two different people from two different counties than the supposed “only two confirmed cases” the state reported just two days ago.

Unless there are massive efforts not being reported I’m pretty embarrassed for the U.S. on a federal and state level for how poorly this is being handled. From aggregating multiple reports we’ve tested roughly 2,000 people total while South Korea is testing 10,000/day?

My best guess is there are thousands of cases already circulating the country completely unknown. Here’s hoping I’m wrong.

 

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[.B.]

Which initiatives can we all encourage, to reduce the speed of spread of the virus?
(sorry in advance for my "French English")

Here is an interesting short interview from a "top expert from Harvard on viruses"

View: https://youtu.be/iDelUkpFm60


I share that guy's point of view of the situation (i.e. not good):

In particular, it is obvious that we can't count on most governments to take the right actions to limit the spread of the virus.
(They just do one blunder after the other, with a few exceptions like Singapore)

And in that case, each individual should take responsibility for taking initiatives at his/her level without waiting for governments guidelines.

Taking initiatives doesn't mean "going in panic mode",
but instead, organize things to limit the speed with which the virus spreads, without impacting the economy too much (see examples of initiatives below)

We have the chance that we have the internet in this crisis.
We can learn from each other, inform others, think for ourselves and start taking the right actions.

There are simple ways that shouldn't impact the economy too much and that will help slow down the increasing speed of contagion, e.g.:

- do online shopping (also for groceries), instead of going to the supermarket where people cough around and share viruses

- work from home when possible

- don't do physical meetings if they can be done with videoconferences.
Also with friends and families.
Not as fun as being able to hug them, but more fun than having to bury them.

- if you are a manager/ business owner, have the courage to let your employees work from home if it is feasible

- if you are a manager/ business owner, don’t count sick days during the pandemic so that people don’t have an incentive to go to work and infect others when they are sick

- people who cough should stay home/ work from home during the pandemic

- …

And hopefully that way we don't all get sick at the same time, and so there will be a bed available for you at the hospital when you get sick and need a respirator.

Interview of 06/03, about how dangerous the virus actually is
and how our response will determine if the damage will be
as bad as China/Italy
or as low as Singapore:

View: https://youtu.be/dcJDpV-igjs


Death rate in Singapore after 2 months of infection with proper measures implemented:




Death rate in Italy after having let the situation rot for 2 months, then 2 weeks of testing with some half measures:




Death rate in Hubei (where Wuhan is), probably after 2 months of doing nothing in a high density area, then quarantining millions of people in their apartments for more than a month to quickly curb the spread of the virus. (their best case scenario, i.e. if we trust their numbers)




The death rate will be determined by the preventive actions taken or not, and by the capacity of the hospital to take care of the resulting amount of sick people at one moment

 

[GoodluckChuck]

If this doctors breakdown is even 1/1000th correct then we the issue is even bigger than I thought.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1236095181633376257

View: https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095181633376257?s=20

 

[Dariok]

Unless there are massive efforts not being reported I’m pretty embarrassed for the U.S. on a federal and state level for how poorly this is being handled. From aggregating multiple reports we’ve tested roughly 2,000 people total while South Korea is testing 10,000/day?

My best guess is there are thousands of cases already circulating the country completely unknown. Here’s hoping I’m wrong.

As I said before: probably Covid was spreading around China at least from mead of December, and city like Beijing has more than 500 departures a day on average.
Just do the math.

 

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[ecommercewolf]

I will let you fellas argue over whether this is a nothing burger or not, but as someone who's father has a heart condition, this worries me. 10% of the confirmed cases in Lombardy needed an ICU.
Locking down cities beats having to give hundreds of people extensive care at the same time.

Yes I believe that the true concern that people are underestimating is the ICU percentage. We have around 90k ICU beds nationwide. Seattle for example which is a hotspot for coronavirus will be at a critical shortage of ICU Beds if this continues to spread.

 

[GIlman]

This presupposes that the vaccine is administered evenly across the population.

In reality, very old and immuno-compromised people likely count for a disproportionate number of vaccine receivers, so my guess is that the flu vaccine actually does reduce the mortality rate, as it's disproportionately reducing the prevalence of the virus in those with higher likelihood of dying.

That said, I haven't seen actual data.

that may be true, but you really have to stratify populations by age, etc...doesn’t really change my assertion, you have to look between like cohorts of patients.

the whole point was that being vaxinated decreases your risk of getting the disease to begin with, which as a population decreases the mortality rate because fewer people get the disease to begin with. But of those who get the disease, if stratified by age, the mortality rate should be the same.

 

[Vigilante]

Once a vaccine is released, it needs to go OLD to YOUNG.

 

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[ChickenHawk]

Well, this is ominous.

Police-Enforced Quarantine Hits California Neighborhood – Residents Ordered to Stay Inside Due to Coronavirus
"Sacramento County Sheriff deputies and Rocklin Police, some wearing protective gloves, converged on a residential street Thursday as a sheriff’s helicopter circled overhead, ordering people to get inside. It was later learned that the first California coronavirus patient to die from the illness lived on this block..."

 

[Bearcorp]

Woah. Sydney still has a Woolworths? How come nobody is talking about that?

Woolworths are massive in Australia, 40 billion in revenue last year according to Wikipedia;

Woolworths Supermarkets - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[loop101]

10M people to be quarantined in Italy, enforced by Italian army.

It's starting to feel like we're in a movie.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6iQV02gi7fE

 

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[Ninjakid]

Before people write off the coronavirus as "no big deal" and "blown out of proportion," just remember there are thousands of medical staff and first-responders who are putting their lives on the line and working overtime to contain the virus.

It's easy to brush something aside when someone else is taking care of it.

 

[Timmy C]

Before people write off the coronavirus as "no big deal" and "blown out of proportion," just remember there are thousands of medical staff and first-responders who are putting their lives on the line and working overtime to contain the virus.

It's easy to brush something aside when someone else is taking care of it.

My sisters friend is a nurse and she deals with this. She said she is more scared of bed bugs than the coronavirus.

 

[Vigilante]

My sisters friend is a nurse and she deals with this. She said she is more scared of bed bugs than the coronavirus.

so by “deals with this” you mean she hasn’t dealt with any real cases yet

 

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[Timmy C]

so by “deals with this” you mean she hasn’t dealt with any real cases yet

I see where you are going with this and i just asked.

She hasnt had to treat anyone yet.

 

[GIlman]

My sisters friend is a nurse and she deals with this. She said she is more scared of bed bugs than the coronavirus.

This type of argument makes no sense. It’s what is referred to as Anecdotal Evidence. It is one data point, unverified, and ultimately unrelated to the actual question at hand. I.e. your sisters nurse friends opinion of the CV is in no way correlated to the actual risk of CV. The risk of CV could be extremely high or low, regardless what her opinion is.

I have tons of doctor friends, many are very concerned. However this to is anecdotal evidence. Their opinions, albeit relatively informed, are still independent of the actual risk. Incidentally I also have some doctor friends that think this is all overblown.

The only useful analysis really is to look at the numbers, how many people infected, how fast is it spreading, what type of person is dying, how many are dying? Anyone’s opinion of the seriousness, including my own, is just that. An opinion...could later be proven right or wrong.

Part of the problem is that different people define “serious” differently. If I could prove a 1.5% death rate, but 95% who died were over age 65. Would that be serious? Some here would say yes, some no...As we increased the percent dead and decreased the age typically killed, we would expect more. And more people to think it was serious. That’s why I prefer to look at numbers not vague labels like serious.

But just looking at this thread alone you can find people concerned and others that think it’s no big deal. People have cognitive confirmation bias. You have already made up your mind about CV, so you will see and agree with people that support that position, while dismissing those that don’t.

however, we can see that People’s lives and businesses are being forcibly disrupted. Look at the travel bans, supply chain disruptions, actual full scale mass quarantines. The risk to health will be drilled down over time in excruciating detail, but in the meantime the very real human reaction and disruption of life and business is real and palpable.

How the US will react when we have a focal outbreak, which is extremely likely given other counties experience, we will find out. Human nature being similar around the world, I expect similar reactions. Heck south by southwest was just canceled (as well as other big events)....so we are showing signs we are reacting the same, just in an earlier phase of panic.

 

[Timmy C]

This type of argument makes no sense. It’s what is referred to as Anecdotal Evidence. It is one data point, unverified, and ultimately unrelated to the actual question at hand. I.e. your sisters nurse friends opinion of the CV is in no way correlated to the actual risk of CV. The risk of CV could be extremely high or low, regardless what her opinion is.

I have tons of doctor friends, many are very concerned. However this to is anecdotal evidence. Their opinions, albeit relatively informed, are still independent of the actual risk. Incidentally I also have some doctor friends that think this is all overblown.

The only useful analysis really is to look at the numbers, how many people infected, how fast is it spreading, what type of person is dying, how many are dying? Anyone’s opinion of the seriousness, including my own, is just that. An opinion...could later be proven right or wrong.

But just looking at this thread alone you can find people concerned and others that think it’s no big deal. People have cognitive confirmation bias. You have already made up your mind about CV, so you will see and agree with people that support that position, while dismissing those that don’t.

however, we can see that People’s lives and businesses are being forcibly disrupted. Look at the travel bans, supply chain disruptions, actual full scale mass quarantines. The risk to health will be drilled down over time in excruciating detail, but in the meantime the very real human reaction and disruption of life and business is real and palpable.

How the US will react when we have a focal outbreak, which is extremely likely given other counties experience, we will find out. Human nature being similar around the world, I expect similar reactions. Heck south by southwest was just canceled (as well as other big events)....so we are showing signs we are reacting the same, just in an earlier phase of panic.

You make alot of assumptions about my opinion without even asking what it is.

No one is arguing here buddy except for you.

Did I miss something lol

I just posted a comment.

 

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[GIlman]

You make alot of assumptions about my opinion without even asking what it is.

No one is arguing here buddy except for you.

Did I miss something lol

I just posted a comment.

My replies aren’t meant to be personal. Sorry if it came across that way. My replies are my own analysis, meant for anyone reading this thread and trying to sort out what’s going on.

sorry if it came across like I was attacking you personally. That wasn’t my intention. Unfortunately one of the downsides of written communication, there is no tone so people can read it however they want.

 

[Timmy C]

My replies aren’t meant to be personal. Sorry if it came across that way. My replies are my own analysis, meant for anyone reading this thread and trying to sort out what’s going on.

sorry if it came across like I was attacking you personally. That wasn’t my intention.

That's alright.

I am a bit worried, Italy locking down a large portion of there population....don't see why they would do that if it wasn't a big deal.

Worried that it's spreading fast and we still don't know alot about it.

Worried for my family and friends and concerned to see people not worrying at all and that haven't prepared and bought enough food, people are assaulting each other in supermarkets here...

Another part of me thinks the media are pieces of shit and they could be making this seem so much worse than it is.

Regardless, this will effect the economy 100 percent at the very least.

I mean it already is.