Random Chat, Thoughts, Posts, and/or Rants Thread

[Xeon]

The No. 1 perk that will bring Gen Z and millennials into the office, according to Microsoft

What will convince younger employees to ditch their sweatpants and renew their commute? The answer is surprisingly simple.

www.cnbc.com

I read the title of the article and thought Microsoft has some innovative, revolutionary idea/perk that can convince people to go back to the office. After all, an entire article is written on this.

And what's that revolutionary idea or perk?

"social time with co-workers"

How many of you guys want to spend more time with your colleagues?

 

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[GPM]

Not surprising. We're seeing a needed and necessary return to normal where money once again, is tied to real value. The "free money" sources that appealed to the masses, stuff like Crypto, WSB style stock trading, buy and forget index funds, and NFTS are starting to dry up. IMO, all this crap needs to shake out and it will need many more months to do so.

Right now the only way to make money is to provide value... not by buying some shit-coin, or some limited edition JPEG.

I think them turning away from miners also has an effect on it. That is literally what could be hundreds of thousands of miners who used to deal in Eth are no longer doing so, and probably won't even touch it again. I saw something along the lines of tens of thousands of Eth were dumped by mining addresses shortly after the merge, and those guys are 100% done with Eth at this point.

 

[Xeon]

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www.stockai.com

 

[Kak]

Had a random business idea and now I can’t stop thinking about it…

Mortgages (can substitute with other forms of loans as well but mortgages work best).

Typical mortgage process. Send a bank or broker your tax information, income slips, debt, assets, chequing account statements, savings account statements, letter of employment, your left kidney, etc.

Now you wait for an underwriter to appraise your home, calculate risk for the loan, and decide FOR YOU if you deserve this home purchase. Essentially, you’re blind, and the underwriter/bank is deciding where you go.

Now, we all know what happens when you default multiple payments on a mortgage. So risk for mortgages is really not that bad (imo) as long as you get the appraisal right.

Now here comes the MoneyDoc Mortgage Solutions. Smart contract controlled mortgage provider providing instant mortgages. I don’t care what income you make, how much debt you have, what car you drive, what assets you have, how much taxes you paid, the balance on your chequing account, or your favourite colour. If someone is buying a $5m home and needs a mortgage, it’s just common sense to assume they can afford the payments. I wouldn’t ask a neurosurgeon buying a Lamborghini if they can afford the payments.

Anyway, you get the mortgage, smart contract is such that if you default on the payments after say 3 consecutive months, title is automatically transferred to MoneyDoc Mortgage Solutions. I’m ignoring the technical “how to’s” and the tech as that can all be figured out later.

Please tell me you WON’T use MoneyDoc Mortgage Solutions if such a service existed.

@Antifragile need a development loan for a ground up storage development? How does an instant wire sound without you providing me any personal/business income statements, assets, etc. I don’t care if you can afford the deal (lol). Commercial loans would require a bit more underwriting as you don’t want to lend out $19m to have a default by the developer and be stuck with a development only worth $5m, but you get the point. The process is what matters.

I’m currently working to get a mortgage and the first email with the banker is already a hassle. I feel as if they’re essentially controlling my future (and they are) and I’m not comfortable with that. We put too much trust in banks and still get treated like shit.

Any thoughts?

It’s a better process of course, but is it a good business? Real rates are still negative. You’d have to charge a very high interest rate, like any portfolio lender, to want to keep the loans on your books and still make money.

The reason for the giant dog and pony show is so your “lender” can sell the loan to a MBS fund or a socialist company like Fannie Mae. You see, you can offer lower “market” interest rates and make money on negative yields ONLY if you sell to the socialists and if you want to sell to them, you have to do it their way.

In a truly capitalist economic environment, where the market sets the interest rates, and there’s no government entity to sell the loans to, you win all day with this idea.

Right now you’re kind of trapped. You have to pick one of these three: play the socialist game, slug it out with a super uncompetitive offering, or lose money.

 

[Vinz]

What do you do when you don't know what to do?

Write out the problem, the possible solutions, the con and pros.
Write it out, brainstorm

 

[MoneyDoc]

Holy! Just got quoted for a car finance with 7% rates and a lease quote with 9% rates.

 

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[Antifragile]

Holy! Just got quoted for a car finance with 7% rates and a lease quote with 9% rates.

Say NO to car debt at these rates.

 

[MoneyDoc]

Say NO to car debt at these rates.

I swear.. makes no sense irregardless of how much money you have.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

Suddenly, Dave Ramsey is popular again!

 

[Kak]

Holy! Just got quoted for a car finance with 7% rates and a lease quote with 9% rates.

Shop that. If you can get 5% it still makes a lot of sense. But I’m assuming you’re looking at the super high end cars which probably has its own market of advantage takers.

 

[Antifragile]

Shop that. If you can get 5% it still makes a lot of sense. But I’m assuming you’re looking at the super high end cars which probably has its own market of advantage takers.

Luxury cars went up in value like crazy the last two years because of rock bottom interest rates. People had too much money and time on their hands and got itchy to buy all kinds of fancy items, watches, jewelry all went up. I expect with the rate hikes we'll see a big reversal happening. Some claim that new cars are backlogged due to supply chain issues and thus increased demand for existing used cars and especially luxury like G-Wagons. But my opinion is that it's a simple blip in the system. Cars depreciate 99/100 times and if you see a time when they appreciate, it's the one time out of 100 - exception to the rule. Demand went up because money was "free", now money is "expensive" I expect demand to drop off a cliff for luxury cars.

 

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[MoneyDoc]

Luxury cars went up in value like crazy the last two years because of rock bottom interest rates. People had too much money and time on their hands and got itchy to buy all kinds of fancy items, watches, jewelry all went up. I expect with the rate hikes we'll see a big reversal happening. Some claim that new cars are backlogged due to supply chain issues and thus increased demand for existing used cars and especially luxury like G-Wagons. But my opinion is that it's a simple blip in the system. Cars depreciate 99/100 times and if you see a time when they appreciate, it's the one time out of 100 - exception to the rule. Demand went up because money was "free", now money is "expensive" I expect demand to drop off a cliff for luxury cars.

Speaking of G Wagons. Decided to sell mine. Still managed to get out driving the car for free + ~$30k profit on top of my downpayment, but prices are dropping fast and supply is just skyrocketing. Many dealers are underwater by buying last year as they can’t sell it for anywhere near what they paid for them. Couldn’t risk holding on as I paid slightly over MSRP but right before they really exploded up in value.

 

[Kak]

Luxury cars went up in value like crazy the last two years because of rock bottom interest rates. People had too much money and time on their hands and got itchy to buy all kinds of fancy items, watches, jewelry all went up. I expect with the rate hikes we'll see a big reversal happening. Some claim that new cars are backlogged due to supply chain issues and thus increased demand for existing used cars and especially luxury like G-Wagons. But my opinion is that it's a simple blip in the system. Cars depreciate 99/100 times and if you see a time when they appreciate, it's the one time out of 100 - exception to the rule. Demand went up because money was "free", now money is "expensive" I expect demand to drop off a cliff for luxury cars.

High interest rates will kill that demand.

I got in a light argument with someone about The Woodlands home prices. They were claiming that the housing market might crash most places but not The Woodlands. Their reasoning is demand from “Californians moving here and paying cash.”

Let’s do a little math here on the quintessential “nice home” that The Woodlands is full of. We will make the home an even million and the loan an even $800k

With a 30 year fixed rate at 3.5% you can expect to pay $3592 per month for principle and interest. Not too bad.

With a 30 year fixed rate at 7.5% which is what I’m hearing about now, you can expect to pay $5393 per month for principle and interest.

That’s $1801 more per month which makes that same home 50% more expensive per month.

If you only want to spend that same $3592/m with 200k down, you now can only have a $714k home.

With the FED planning to continue to hike rates, we could easily see 10% interest rates. A monthly of $7020. A 95% increase in the monthly expenditure to service $800k.

If you want to put that same $200k down and $3592/m in the 10% rate environment, you’re looking at $610k purchase price.

Saying “we have a bunch of cash buyers from California” doesn’t help. First of all we don’t. Talk to a realtor. The vast majority of people who can pay cash for a home still finance.

Second the market doesn’t compartmentalize cash buyers. The cash buyer will take advantage of the the fact that people can no longer afford to pay prices they were able to before.

HOME PRICES WILL FALL. Woodlands or not.

Edit, I recorded another short on this. Same stuff as above.

Kyle Keegan Radio Show

www.spreaker.com

 

[MoneyDoc]

High interest rates will kill that demand.

I got in a light argument with someone about The Woodlands home prices. They were claiming that the housing market might crash most places but not The Woodlands. Their reasoning is demand from “Californians moving here and paying cash.”

Let’s do a little math here on the quintessential “nice home” that The Woodlands is full of. We will make the home an even million and the loan an even $800k

With a 30 year fixed rate at 3.5% you can expect to pay $3592 per month for principle and interest. Not too bad.

With a 30 year fixed rate at 7.5% which is what I’m hearing about now, you can expect to pay $5393 per month for principle and interest.

That’s $1801 more per month which makes that same home 50% more expensive per month.

With the FED planning to continue to hike rates, we could easily see 10% interest rates. A monthly of $7020. A 95% increase in the monthly expenditure to service $800k.

Saying “we have a bunch of cash buyers from California” doesn’t help. First of all we don’t. Talk to a realtor. The vast majority of people who can pay cash for a home still finance.

Second the market doesn’t compartmentalize cash buyers. The cash buyer will take advantage of the the fact that people can no longer afford to pay prices whey were able to before.

HOME PRICES WILL FALL. Woodlands or not.

Agreed. Who said cash buyers will buy at list lol. Makes no sense. Cash buyers buy cash to take advantage of the shock in the markets.

I posted this once before but my friends family are very wealthy developers. They live for moments like these. They don’t really do residential much, but this is the time they scout for commercial deals, land, etc. and pay all cash. They’re wealthy enough to be able to hold for years so that once rates drop, they refinance, and either sell the deal, develop, or renovate (existing structures) and sell.

 

[Antifragile]

Agreed. Who said cash buyers will buy at list lol. Makes no sense. Cash buyers buy cash to take advantage of the shock in the markets.

I posted this once before but my friends family are very wealthy developers. They live for moments like these. They don’t really do residential much, but this is the time they scout for commercial deals, land, etc. and pay all cash. They’re wealthy enough to be able to hold for years so that once rates drop, they refinance, and either sell the deal, develop, or renovate (existing structures) and sell.

Pretty much my strategy. I just went firm on an industrial land deal that is:
a) below ask
b) has a VTB at a very low interest rate

People who say things like "cash buyers" often say "patient money" etc. Yes, people have cash and are patient. We are so fortunate to have access to patient money, but what I don't have is stupid dumb money. No way I am paying peak market values for properties I can get for less.

Moreover, in the commercial RE world in Canada... Banks are subject to OSFI (regulator) rules, which force banks to only have a fixed % of land loans outstanding compared to the rest of the RE loans. When projects are shelved, the land loan is not converted to construction loan and stays on the books as land loan. This means there is very limited capital for land loans today. Which means that even if there are willing buyers for land, few will be able to get tier 1 financing. The majority will need private capital at around 12% interest rate. What does that tell you? Either price goes down, or terms get way better for me as a buyer (longer due diligence, much longer close etc.) to help offset the new cost associated with the project.

 

[piano]

I just opened a facebook account and left a join request for my town's group. I already feel my brain cells deteriorating. It's insane how many sacrifices the Fastlane requires.

Update: I got ####### banned from Facebook. I swear I didn't do anything.
What the hell?

 

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[biophase]

Pretty good summary of buying on Amazon.

View: https://youtu.be/nQpxAvjD_30

 

[Lex DeVille]

In case any of you waited 30 years for Hocus Pocus 2... Let me save you the heartbreak of watching another woke Disney cash grab.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

Pretty good summary of buying on Amazon.

View: https://youtu.be/nQpxAvjD_30

it sucks because all of those reviews are all over the website, with bots and scripts etc., yet I got banned from ever writing reviews again because I wrote a review on my own Merch design 1 time and someone reported it. Even when I actually bought it.

(This was years ago, I was like 18 years old)

 

[Antifragile]

Musk is back to buying Twitter

Musk Revives $44 Billion Twitter Bid, Aiming to Avoid Trial — Bloomberg

Elon Musk revived a bid to buy Twitter Inc. at the original price of $54.20 a share, backtracking on his effort to quit the deal and potentially avoiding a contentious courtroom fight.

apple.news

 

[Kak]

Musk is back to buying Twitter

Musk Revives $44 Billion Twitter Bid, Aiming to Avoid Trial — Bloomberg

Elon Musk revived a bid to buy Twitter Inc. at the original price of $54.20 a share, backtracking on his effort to quit the deal and potentially avoiding a contentious courtroom fight.

apple.news

And just like that all the commie conservatives are OK with electric cars again.

 

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[MoneyDoc]

And just like that all the commie conservatives are OK with electric cars again.

You never fail to make me laugh, lmao.

Those pushing fully electric agendas to make the USA less dependent on gas, don’t realize you become fully dependent on China by going electric. China already thought about this “push” to electric many many many years ago.

 

[Antifragile]

You never fail to make me laugh, lmao.

Those pushing fully electric agendas to make the USA less dependent on gas, don’t realize you become fully dependent on China by going electric. China already thought about this “push” to electric many many many years ago.

NP View: Well done everyone, we’ve let China become the real energy superpower — National Post

Beijing keeps generating and burning coal, while also controlling the global market for solar panels

apple.news

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

You never fail to make me laugh, lmao.

Those pushing fully electric agendas to make the USA less dependent on gas, don’t realize you become fully dependent on China by going electric. China already thought about this “push” to electric many many many years ago.

American oil & gas is independence.

It doesn't need to be forever.

(Oh yeah - for you guys it's Canadian oil & gas. Same thing.)

 

[Antifragile]

American oil & gas is independence.

It doesn't need to be forever.

Removing oil and gas as legitimate energy source through legislation is like hating poor people. Costs get passed on to the people. Rich won’t give a shit, poor people suffer more. These kinds of knee jerk initiatives are all political. I’m pro ESG, 100% behind it but people come first.

(Oh yeah - for you guys it's Canadian oil & gas. Same thing.)

90% of Canadian population is already on the border with the USA … maybe we are getting ready to invade to get access to the American oil and gas? Hahaha

On a serious note, I do have a Canadian special rant: we have pretty much unlimited amount of land and yet have the least housing units per capita of any G7 country! How’s that even possible?

 

[Boogie]

On a serious note, I do have a Canadian special rant: we have pretty much unlimited amount of land and yet have the least housing units per capita of any G7 country! How’s that even possible?

It gets cold there.

 

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[Kak]

I’m pro ESG

No you’re not.

Real profit motives and free markets consider all the ESG stuff without making it a deliberate inefficiency.

Being pro ESG just means you’re pro virtue signaling as a business. You’re not. You’re pro business is already good, like me.

 

[Kak]

You never fail to make me laugh, lmao.

Those pushing fully electric agendas to make the USA less dependent on gas, don’t realize you become fully dependent on China by going electric. China already thought about this “push” to electric many many many years ago.

Electric agendas = Retarded
Electric options we are all free to choose = Awesome

I would totally own a Tesla if I lived in town and I’m like reincarnated Ludwig Von Mises level right wing.

 

[Antifragile]

Real profit motives and free markets consider all the ESG stuff without making it a deliberate inefficiency.

Well said. Thanks.

 

[MitchC]

NP View: Well done everyone, we’ve let China become the real energy superpower — National Post

Beijing keeps generating and burning coal, while also controlling the global market for solar panels

apple.news

It’s super obvious here in Australia.

We are so woke we are closing all our coal fired power stations, yet we still send all our coal to China and India so they can burn it anyway.

We live on the same planet, the result is the exact same, worse in fact because you have the emissions from shipping it to those countries to burn instead of just burning it here.

So now we have expensive power and blackouts while China is laughing at us burning all our cheap coal making cheap power for themselves.

And they’re the ones selling us all the solar panels, again, made with cheap power from our coal, our iron ore and other minerals.