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Random Chat, Thoughts, Posts, and/or Rants Thread

Kak

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Holy! Just got quoted for a car finance with 7% rates and a lease quote with 9% rates.
Shop that. If you can get 5% it still makes a lot of sense. But I’m assuming you’re looking at the super high end cars which probably has its own market of advantage takers.
 

Antifragile

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Shop that. If you can get 5% it still makes a lot of sense. But I’m assuming you’re looking at the super high end cars which probably has its own market of advantage takers.

Luxury cars went up in value like crazy the last two years because of rock bottom interest rates. People had too much money and time on their hands and got itchy to buy all kinds of fancy items, watches, jewelry all went up. I expect with the rate hikes we'll see a big reversal happening. Some claim that new cars are backlogged due to supply chain issues and thus increased demand for existing used cars and especially luxury like G-Wagons. But my opinion is that it's a simple blip in the system. Cars depreciate 99/100 times and if you see a time when they appreciate, it's the one time out of 100 - exception to the rule. Demand went up because money was "free", now money is "expensive" I expect demand to drop off a cliff for luxury cars.
 
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MoneyDoc

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Luxury cars went up in value like crazy the last two years because of rock bottom interest rates. People had too much money and time on their hands and got itchy to buy all kinds of fancy items, watches, jewelry all went up. I expect with the rate hikes we'll see a big reversal happening. Some claim that new cars are backlogged due to supply chain issues and thus increased demand for existing used cars and especially luxury like G-Wagons. But my opinion is that it's a simple blip in the system. Cars depreciate 99/100 times and if you see a time when they appreciate, it's the one time out of 100 - exception to the rule. Demand went up because money was "free", now money is "expensive" I expect demand to drop off a cliff for luxury cars.
Speaking of G Wagons. Decided to sell mine. Still managed to get out driving the car for free + ~$30k profit on top of my downpayment, but prices are dropping fast and supply is just skyrocketing. Many dealers are underwater by buying last year as they can’t sell it for anywhere near what they paid for them. Couldn’t risk holding on as I paid slightly over MSRP but right before they really exploded up in value.
 

Kak

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Luxury cars went up in value like crazy the last two years because of rock bottom interest rates. People had too much money and time on their hands and got itchy to buy all kinds of fancy items, watches, jewelry all went up. I expect with the rate hikes we'll see a big reversal happening. Some claim that new cars are backlogged due to supply chain issues and thus increased demand for existing used cars and especially luxury like G-Wagons. But my opinion is that it's a simple blip in the system. Cars depreciate 99/100 times and if you see a time when they appreciate, it's the one time out of 100 - exception to the rule. Demand went up because money was "free", now money is "expensive" I expect demand to drop off a cliff for luxury cars.
High interest rates will kill that demand.

I got in a light argument with someone about The Woodlands home prices. They were claiming that the housing market might crash most places but not The Woodlands. Their reasoning is demand from “Californians moving here and paying cash.”

Let’s do a little math here on the quintessential “nice home” that The Woodlands is full of. We will make the home an even million and the loan an even $800k

With a 30 year fixed rate at 3.5% you can expect to pay $3592 per month for principle and interest. Not too bad.

With a 30 year fixed rate at 7.5% which is what I’m hearing about now, you can expect to pay $5393 per month for principle and interest.

That’s $1801 more per month which makes that same home 50% more expensive per month.

If you only want to spend that same $3592/m with 200k down, you now can only have a $714k home.

With the FED planning to continue to hike rates, we could easily see 10% interest rates. A monthly of $7020. A 95% increase in the monthly expenditure to service $800k.

If you want to put that same $200k down and $3592/m in the 10% rate environment, you’re looking at $610k purchase price.

Saying “we have a bunch of cash buyers from California” doesn’t help. First of all we don’t. Talk to a realtor. The vast majority of people who can pay cash for a home still finance.

Second the market doesn’t compartmentalize cash buyers. The cash buyer will take advantage of the the fact that people can no longer afford to pay prices they were able to before.

HOME PRICES WILL FALL. Woodlands or not.

Edit, I recorded another short on this. Same stuff as above.
 
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MoneyDoc

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High interest rates will kill that demand.

I got in a light argument with someone about The Woodlands home prices. They were claiming that the housing market might crash most places but not The Woodlands. Their reasoning is demand from “Californians moving here and paying cash.”

Let’s do a little math here on the quintessential “nice home” that The Woodlands is full of. We will make the home an even million and the loan an even $800k

With a 30 year fixed rate at 3.5% you can expect to pay $3592 per month for principle and interest. Not too bad.

With a 30 year fixed rate at 7.5% which is what I’m hearing about now, you can expect to pay $5393 per month for principle and interest.

That’s $1801 more per month which makes that same home 50% more expensive per month.

With the FED planning to continue to hike rates, we could easily see 10% interest rates. A monthly of $7020. A 95% increase in the monthly expenditure to service $800k.

Saying “we have a bunch of cash buyers from California” doesn’t help. First of all we don’t. Talk to a realtor. The vast majority of people who can pay cash for a home still finance.

Second the market doesn’t compartmentalize cash buyers. The cash buyer will take advantage of the the fact that people can no longer afford to pay prices whey were able to before.

HOME PRICES WILL FALL. Woodlands or not.
Agreed. Who said cash buyers will buy at list lol. Makes no sense. Cash buyers buy cash to take advantage of the shock in the markets.

I posted this once before but my friends family are very wealthy developers. They live for moments like these. They don’t really do residential much, but this is the time they scout for commercial deals, land, etc. and pay all cash. They’re wealthy enough to be able to hold for years so that once rates drop, they refinance, and either sell the deal, develop, or renovate (existing structures) and sell.
 
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Antifragile

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Agreed. Who said cash buyers will buy at list lol. Makes no sense. Cash buyers buy cash to take advantage of the shock in the markets.

I posted this once before but my friends family are very wealthy developers. They live for moments like these. They don’t really do residential much, but this is the time they scout for commercial deals, land, etc. and pay all cash. They’re wealthy enough to be able to hold for years so that once rates drop, they refinance, and either sell the deal, develop, or renovate (existing structures) and sell.

Pretty much my strategy. I just went firm on an industrial land deal that is:
a) below ask
b) has a VTB at a very low interest rate

People who say things like "cash buyers" often say "patient money" etc. Yes, people have cash and are patient. We are so fortunate to have access to patient money, but what I don't have is stupid dumb money. No way I am paying peak market values for properties I can get for less.

Moreover, in the commercial RE world in Canada... Banks are subject to OSFI (regulator) rules, which force banks to only have a fixed % of land loans outstanding compared to the rest of the RE loans. When projects are shelved, the land loan is not converted to construction loan and stays on the books as land loan. This means there is very limited capital for land loans today. Which means that even if there are willing buyers for land, few will be able to get tier 1 financing. The majority will need private capital at around 12% interest rate. What does that tell you? Either price goes down, or terms get way better for me as a buyer (longer due diligence, much longer close etc.) to help offset the new cost associated with the project.
 

piano

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I just opened a facebook account and left a join request for my town's group. I already feel my brain cells deteriorating. It's insane how many sacrifices the Fastlane requires.

Update: I got ####### banned from Facebook. I swear I didn't do anything.
What the hell?
 

Antifragile

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Kak

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MoneyDoc

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And just like that all the commie conservatives are OK with electric cars again.
You never fail to make me laugh, lmao.

Those pushing fully electric agendas to make the USA less dependent on gas, don’t realize you become fully dependent on China by going electric. China already thought about this “push” to electric many many many years ago.
 

Antifragile

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You never fail to make me laugh, lmao.

Those pushing fully electric agendas to make the USA less dependent on gas, don’t realize you become fully dependent on China by going electric. China already thought about this “push” to electric many many many years ago.

 
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Guest-5ty5s4

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You never fail to make me laugh, lmao.

Those pushing fully electric agendas to make the USA less dependent on gas, don’t realize you become fully dependent on China by going electric. China already thought about this “push” to electric many many many years ago.
American oil & gas is independence.

It doesn't need to be forever.

(Oh yeah - for you guys it's Canadian oil & gas. Same thing.)
 

Antifragile

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American oil & gas is independence.

It doesn't need to be forever.

Removing oil and gas as legitimate energy source through legislation is like hating poor people. Costs get passed on to the people. Rich won’t give a shit, poor people suffer more. These kinds of knee jerk initiatives are all political. I’m pro ESG, 100% behind it but people come first.


(Oh yeah - for you guys it's Canadian oil & gas. Same thing.)

90% of Canadian population is already on the border with the USA … maybe we are getting ready to invade to get access to the American oil and gas? Hahaha

On a serious note, I do have a Canadian special rant: we have pretty much unlimited amount of land and yet have the least housing units per capita of any G7 country! How’s that even possible?
 

Boogie

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On a serious note, I do have a Canadian special rant: we have pretty much unlimited amount of land and yet have the least housing units per capita of any G7 country! How’s that even possible?

It gets cold there.
 
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Kak

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I’m pro ESG
No you’re not.

Real profit motives and free markets consider all the ESG stuff without making it a deliberate inefficiency.

Being pro ESG just means you’re pro virtue signaling as a business. You’re not. You’re pro business is already good, like me.
 
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Kak

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You never fail to make me laugh, lmao.

Those pushing fully electric agendas to make the USA less dependent on gas, don’t realize you become fully dependent on China by going electric. China already thought about this “push” to electric many many many years ago.
Electric agendas = Retarded
Electric options we are all free to choose = Awesome

I would totally own a Tesla if I lived in town and I’m like reincarnated Ludwig Von Mises level right wing.
 

Antifragile

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MitchC

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It’s super obvious here in Australia.

We are so woke we are closing all our coal fired power stations, yet we still send all our coal to China and India so they can burn it anyway.

We live on the same planet, the result is the exact same, worse in fact because you have the emissions from shipping it to those countries to burn instead of just burning it here.

So now we have expensive power and blackouts while China is laughing at us burning all our cheap coal making cheap power for themselves.

And they’re the ones selling us all the solar panels, again, made with cheap power from our coal, our iron ore and other minerals.
 
G

Guest-5ty5s4

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Removing oil and gas as legitimate energy source through legislation is like hating poor people. Costs get passed on to the people. Rich won’t give a shit, poor people suffer more. These kinds of knee jerk initiatives are all political. I’m pro ESG, 100% behind it but people come first.




90% of Canadian population is already on the border with the USA … maybe we are getting ready to invade to get access to the American oil and gas? Hahaha

On a serious note, I do have a Canadian special rant: we have pretty much unlimited amount of land and yet have the least housing units per capita of any G7 country! How’s that even possible?
Wouldn’t do any good. America is legislating away American oil & gas. We are all on the same path of stupidity together.

Canada and America both need fossil fuels still. The legislation hurts the poor and middle class.
(I agree with you)

The land thing is a really good point. So many resources untapped and unused. Why? Because the government isn’t the end-all-be-all distributor of resources. Execution is everything.

As John Stossel (libertarian journalist) titled his book, “No, they can’t.”
 

MitchC

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Wouldn’t do any good. America is legislating away American oil & gas. We are all on the same path of stupidity together.

Canada and America both need fossil fuels still. The legislation hurts the poor and middle class.
(I agree with you)

The land thing is a really good point. So many resources untapped and unused. Why? Because the government isn’t the end-all-be-all distributor of resources. Execution is everything.

As John Stossel (libertarian journalist) titled his book, “No, they can’t.”
There’s a law in the 48 laws of power about looking at the result of what people do, not their supposed intentions.

This stuff all sounds nice and dandy and if you speak out about it you must hate the environment and planet, they even get kids to speak on their behalf so you can’t really yell at a kid.

But you look at the result and not the supposed intention and it’s fairly obvious it’s all just a ruse to F*ck people over and control them.

These people aren’t stupid, well maybe some of them are, but whoever is pulling the strings knows exactly what they are doing.
 
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Guest-5ty5s4

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There’s a law in the 48 laws of power about looking at the result of what people do, not their supposed intentions.

This stuff all sounds nice and dandy and if you speak out about it you must hate the environment and planet, they even get kids to speak on their behalf so you can’t really yell at a kid.

But you look at the result and not the supposed intention and it’s fairly obvious it’s all just a ruse to F*ck people over and control them.

These people aren’t stupid, well maybe some of them are, but whoever is pulling the strings knows exactly what they are doing.
You have a really good point. I agree with you actually and sometimes forget that these people work full time on studying and collecting data on these things... which further proves your point that it’s probably intentional
 

Kak

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Anyone use a weight vest for running? I’m thinking about getting one from 5.11 to make my runs more effective and it has the added benefit of molle webbing so I can pouch the phone and maybe a hydration bladder like a major nerd.
 

Antifragile

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Anyone use a weight vest for running? I’m thinking about getting one from 5.11 to make my runs more effective and it has the added benefit of molle webbing so I can pouch the phone and maybe a hydration bladder like a major nerd.

I see the benefit of it if you are hiking up a very steep "stair-master" type of hike. It's low impact but better leg workout. Yet for running, I'd be concerned about injuries. I am a runner and the lighter I am, the faster and longer I go. It's already a high impact sport (on pavement, we were design to run on trails). I'd keep the impact part of it as low as possible, your 70 year old self will thank you.
 
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GPM

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In case any of you waited 30 years for Hocus Pocus 2... Let me save you the heartbreak of watching another woke Disney cash grab.
My wife and I watched it last night. It was boring start to finish. My favorite parts were the drag show and the forced in gay couples snuggling on the couch, Disney never misses an opportunity to flesh our their movies by forcing completely unrelated things like this.
 

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