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Making sense of bullshit college tuition: I made a tool

PapaGang

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"I had no idea it was going to cost $200k for my kid to go to college. He knows what he wants to pursue, and even though this is an insane amount of money, I feel like if we don't get loans we'll be cheating him out of his best chance for success. But this seems like so much. How can I know if it's worth it?" --or--
"I have the money, but what's the ROI on this transaction?"


If you're a parent, this has probably run through your mind. So I set out to create some sort of tool that would help my family make a proper financial decision. I created a very simple spreadsheet that calculates student loan payments, compares that with the projected salary for your child's major when they graduate, and then gives you an ROI figure. If the number is over 15%, then it's likely a bad return on your investment. Also, I put in a line item for mandatory allocation of 10% towards investments, with a calculator showing future worth.

I'm not selling anything, there is no pitch, no catch. I'm just a dad who wants to see his son succeed without going broke.

My son is 19. He took a gap year and then applied to several colleges. He was accepted to several, and two out of the three he was interested in gave him scholarships. The thing is, they were $250k total for tuition and expenses. I started to look at entry level and average salaries for his chosen occupation. I realized that something just didn't add up. We have the money, but to me this was really dumb money to spend. I don't mind forking over 80k if he were pursuing a STEM degree at the state university [he'd be on the hook for a good portion of it and if he did well we'd pay the balance upon graduation, think of it as a performance-based endowment], but 250k for an arts degree was off the table.

My spouse was arguing with me, my son was upset, emotions were high. I needed to create something that set down some facts and could illustrate what the likely future scenarios were, and then have a frank discussion on this thorny problem and how we could tackle this together. I made this spreadsheet to help frame the discussion so we could make principled decisions and avoid the panic and FOMO.

Turns out, we found several accredited, well-regarded schools that had 18 month associates as well as some that offered an 11-month intensive certificate program that would give him the experience and skills necessary to pursue his passion. They were a tenth of the cost of the colleges he was applying to. And he doesn't have to delay his career by 4 years and doesn't start off life with big debt.

As a parent it's my duty to exhibit smart fiscal responsibility and guide my kids into life with as much skill, confidence, and knowledge as possible. I hope this might benefit someone else out there who was shocked at the price of school and is looking for a way to make sense of these big decisions.

The spreadsheet is here, and instructions are on the sheet: Education ROI Worksheet-Beta

Take it, make a copy of it, and use it however you'd like. It's not perfect, it's a work in progress, but I think it's a good start to help make sense of the issues.

I know this is an entrepreneur forum. I know many of us feel like college is a waste of time, and that skill acquisition is the name of the game, and that entrepreneurship is available to anyone willing to work hard, serve others, learn, and develop good habits.

But the majority of people work as employees. As entrepreneurs, this is great because it means we have access to an educated labor pool and it's in our best interest to help people acquire the necessary knowledge without going broke because it means we get to pick the best. AND if you have a significant other who had their mind set on paying for their kids education, this tool helps frame the conversation in a sensible way.
 
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  • Copy of Education ROI Worksheet-Beta.xlsx
    16.1 KB · Views: 23
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MJ DeMarco

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Awesome. Marked NOTABLE. If it saves one person in the states from spending $150K on a worthless "Greater fool" degree, the job is done.

Although it is VIEW only, so no one can actually use it.
 

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I like your approach to education. If the ROI is worth it, then it’s worth doing.

It isn’t about trusting conventional wisdom or listening to people who tell you to turn away before you even see what it is.

I have no idea how opportunity cost ties into this, but opportunity is subjective at times. “But dad, I could make a million dollars practicing my VALORANT skills and becoming a big Gamer with that time and money!” -kid with no skill or actual drive
 

PapaGang

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Awesome. Marked NOTABLE. If it saves one person in the states from spending $150K on a worthless "Greater fool" degree, the job is done.

Although it is VIEW only, so no one can actually use it.
Awesome. Marked NOTABLE. If it saves one person in the states from spending $150K on a worthless "Greater fool" degree, the job is done.

Although it is VIEW only, so no one can actually use it.
MJ, thanks for letting me know it was not in "edit" mode.
Fixed.

Also, xlsx file attached for those preferring Microsoft
 
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  • Copy of Education ROI Worksheet-Beta.xlsx
    16.1 KB · Views: 6
Last edited:

PapaGang

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I like your approach to education. If the ROI is worth it, then it’s worth doing.

It isn’t about trusting conventional wisdom or listening to people who tell you to turn away before you even see what it is.

I have no idea how opportunity cost ties into this, but opportunity is subjective at times. “But dad, I could make a million dollars practicing my VALORANT skills and becoming a big Gamer with that time and money!” -kid with no skill or actual drive
Thank you, and agreed. There is only so much you can do, the rest relies on your kid's ability to find the determination to break through.

Here are 2 examples I'll share to drive this point home. Look specifically at the student loan payment, leftover capital, and ROI cells specifically.

Option 1 — out-of-state college:
Screenshot 2023-05-15 at 4.24.59 PM.png


Option 2 — one year intensive from an accredited, well regarded tech school:
Screenshot 2023-05-15 at 4.24.44 PM.png

The difference couldn't be more stark.
 
Last edited:

PapaGang

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I'll also add that parents should check the fiscal health of these schools. My son was accepted to DePaul, received a 60k scholarship.

Then I found a Forbes article that reported that they were facing a $56M deficit this YEAR.

Now, do you think those college professors are thinking about my son's education, or are they polishing off their CVs because they are worried their program will be cut?

How could anyone send their kid there this year?
 

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"I had no idea it was going to cost $200k for my kid to go to college. He knows what he wants to pursue, and even though this is an insane amount of money, I feel like if we don't get loans we'll be cheating him out of his best chance for success. But this seems like so much. How can I know if it's worth it?" --or--
"I have the money, but what's the ROI on this transaction?"


If you're a parent, this has probably run through your mind. So I set out to create some sort of tool that would help my family make a proper financial decision. I created a very simple spreadsheet that calculates student loan payments, compares that with the projected salary for your child's major when they graduate, and then gives you an ROI figure. If the number is over 15%, then it's likely a bad return on your investment. Also, I put in a line item for mandatory allocation of 10% towards investments, with a calculator showing future worth.

I'm not selling anything, there is no pitch, no catch. I'm just a dad who wants to see his son succeed without going broke.

My son is 19. He took a gap year and then applied to several colleges. He was accepted to several, and two out of the three he was interested in gave him scholarships. The thing is, they were $250k total for tuition and expenses. I started to look at entry level and average salaries for his chosen occupation. I realized that something just didn't add up. We have the money, but to me this was really dumb money to spend. I don't mind forking over 80k if he were pursuing a STEM degree at the state university [he'd be on the hook for a good portion of it and if he did well we'd pay the balance upon graduation, think of it as a performance-based endowment], but 250k for an arts degree was off the table.

My spouse was arguing with me, my son was upset, emotions were high. I needed to create something that set down some facts and could illustrate what the likely future scenarios were, and then have a frank discussion on this thorny problem and how we could tackle this together. I made this spreadsheet to help frame the discussion so we could make principled decisions and avoid the panic and FOMO.

Turns out, we found several accredited, well-regarded schools that had 18 month associates as well as some that offered an 11-month intensive certificate program that would give him the experience and skills necessary to pursue his passion. They were a tenth of the cost of the colleges he was applying to. And he doesn't have to delay his career by 4 years and doesn't start off life with big debt.

As a parent it's my duty to exhibit smart fiscal responsibility and guide my kids into life with as much skill, confidence, and knowledge as possible. I hope this might benefit someone else out there who was shocked at the price of school and is looking for a way to make sense of these big decisions.

The spreadsheet is here, and instructions are on the sheet: Education ROI Worksheet-Beta

Take it, make a copy of it, and use it however you'd like. It's not perfect, it's a work in progress, but I think it's a good start to help make sense of the issues.

I know this is an entrepreneur forum. I know many of us feel like college is a waste of time, and that skill acquisition is the name of the game, and that entrepreneurship is available to anyone willing to work hard, serve others, learn, and develop good habits.

But the majority of people work as employees. As entrepreneurs, this is great because it means we have access to an educated labor pool and it's in our best interest to help people acquire the necessary knowledge without going broke because it means we get to pick the best. AND if you have a significant other who had their mind set on paying for their kids education, this tool helps frame the conversation in a sensible way.
The return on investment scenario is hurting higher education. Higher education is too expensive and the final product is questionable.
 
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socaldude

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What about learning a trade?

You can become a plumber, carpenter or electrician and make $50/hour.
 

PapaGang

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What about learning a trade?

You can become a plumber, carpenter or electrician and make $50/hour.

This could apply to trade schools as well. Reference my "Trade/Alt School" spreadsheet image above.
 
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Andy Black

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Can you make it View only and give instructions on how people can make their own copy, or even create a button people click and it creates a copy?

BTW... $250k is outrageous. I had no idea higher education cost so much over there.
 
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PapaGang

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Can you make it View only and give instructions on how people can make their own copy, or even create a button people click and it creates a copy?

BTW... $250k is outrageous. I had no idea higher education cost so much over there.

I agree, it is outrageous. IMO, this is the final cash grab before it all comes apart.
I made it view-only, and if you are logged into a Google account you should be able to make a copy.

Screenshot 2023-05-15 at 6.47.15 PM.png
 

Kevin88660

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"I had no idea it was going to cost $200k for my kid to go to college. He knows what he wants to pursue, and even though this is an insane amount of money, I feel like if we don't get loans we'll be cheating him out of his best chance for success. But this seems like so much. How can I know if it's worth it?" --or--
"I have the money, but what's the ROI on this transaction?"


If you're a parent, this has probably run through your mind. So I set out to create some sort of tool that would help my family make a proper financial decision. I created a very simple spreadsheet that calculates student loan payments, compares that with the projected salary for your child's major when they graduate, and then gives you an ROI figure. If the number is over 15%, then it's likely a bad return on your investment. Also, I put in a line item for mandatory allocation of 10% towards investments, with a calculator showing future worth.

I'm not selling anything, there is no pitch, no catch. I'm just a dad who wants to see his son succeed without going broke.

My son is 19. He took a gap year and then applied to several colleges. He was accepted to several, and two out of the three he was interested in gave him scholarships. The thing is, they were $250k total for tuition and expenses. I started to look at entry level and average salaries for his chosen occupation. I realized that something just didn't add up. We have the money, but to me this was really dumb money to spend. I don't mind forking over 80k if he were pursuing a STEM degree at the state university [he'd be on the hook for a good portion of it and if he did well we'd pay the balance upon graduation, think of it as a performance-based endowment], but 250k for an arts degree was off the table.

My spouse was arguing with me, my son was upset, emotions were high. I needed to create something that set down some facts and could illustrate what the likely future scenarios were, and then have a frank discussion on this thorny problem and how we could tackle this together. I made this spreadsheet to help frame the discussion so we could make principled decisions and avoid the panic and FOMO.

Turns out, we found several accredited, well-regarded schools that had 18 month associates as well as some that offered an 11-month intensive certificate program that would give him the experience and skills necessary to pursue his passion. They were a tenth of the cost of the colleges he was applying to. And he doesn't have to delay his career by 4 years and doesn't start off life with big debt.

As a parent it's my duty to exhibit smart fiscal responsibility and guide my kids into life with as much skill, confidence, and knowledge as possible. I hope this might benefit someone else out there who was shocked at the price of school and is looking for a way to make sense of these big decisions.

The spreadsheet is here, and instructions are on the sheet: Education ROI Worksheet-Beta

Take it, make a copy of it, and use it however you'd like. It's not perfect, it's a work in progress, but I think it's a good start to help make sense of the issues.

I know this is an entrepreneur forum. I know many of us feel like college is a waste of time, and that skill acquisition is the name of the game, and that entrepreneurship is available to anyone willing to work hard, serve others, learn, and develop good habits.

But the majority of people work as employees. As entrepreneurs, this is great because it means we have access to an educated labor pool and it's in our best interest to help people acquire the necessary knowledge without going broke because it means we get to pick the best. AND if you have a significant other who had their mind set on paying for their kids education, this tool helps frame the conversation in a sensible way.
This is unbelievable that first time I hear a Dad convincing his son to consider not going to college when his son wants to and can go.

If your son gets a scholarship how much of the 250k expense will be waived?

I have issue opening the excel file on my phone, but just looking at the picture alone it is strange that you make “roi high” as a bad thing. Not that you doing anything wrong but you could be making things harder to comprehend.

I would recommend using simple ratio, how long you would break even on the education investment, assuming no parental support and after any scholarship is taken into consideration.

Assuming four year raw cost is $200k, scholarship is going to waive of $100k, and he will make $50k a year, this investment breaks even in two years.
 
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PapaGang

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This is unbelievable that first time I hear a Dad convincing his son to consider not going to college when his son wants to and can go.

If your son gets a scholarship how much of the 250k expense will be waived?

I have issue opening the excel file, but just looking at the picture alone it is strange that you make “roi high” as a bad thing. No that you doing anything wrong but you could be making things harder to comprehend.

I would recommend using simple ratio, how long you would break even on the education investment, assuming no parental support and after any scholarship is taken into consideration.

Assuming four year raw cost is $200k, scholarship is going to waive of $100k, and he will make $50k a year, this investment breaks even in two years.
Two things:
1. For the record, I didn't have to do any convincing, I just had to lay out the facts. He's smart.
2. We earmarked 80k for tuition at University of Wisconsin Madison, or University of Minnesota. He didn't want to go to those schools because they didn't have any programs in his chosen major. This left him with private and out-of-state options, and those get expensive fast. Thus the rub. Is paying that much worth it?

You are right, ROI is a weird term here. It's really an expression of the ratio of loan payment to take home pay. I just changed the cell descriptions to reflect that.

The "break even" idea doesn't really work here because the loan term is 20 years. By consulting the spreadsheet, you see he immediately runs a monthly deficit of $600 right out of the gate after taking into consideration all of the other expenses and factors. A more helpful figure is the ratio of loan payment to monthly take home pay. If it runs more than 15% it's a bad investment. Now if he runs a side hustle and banks 70k out of the gate, that's a different story, but we're not looking to somehow add a bunch of offense to overcome a big deficit. The goal is to play good defense and not overpay for something you can get at a tenth of the cost.
 
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Kevin88660

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Two things:
1. For the record, I didn't have to do any convincing, I just had to lay out the facts. He's smart.
2. We earmarked 80k for tuition at University of Wisconsin Madison, or University of Minnesota. He didn't want to go to those schools because they didn't have any programs in his chosen major. This left him with private and out-of-state options, and those get expensive fast. Thus the rub. Is paying that much worth it?

You are right, ROI is a weird term here. It's really an expression of the ratio of loan payment to take home pay. I just changed the cell descriptions to reflect that.

The "break even" idea doesn't really work here because the loan term is 20 years. By consulting the spreadsheet, you see he immediately runs a monthly deficit of $600 right out of the gate after taking into consideration all of the other expenses and factors. A more helpful figure is the ratio of loan payment to monthly take home pay. If it runs more than 15% it's a bad investment. Now if he runs a side hustle and banks 70k out of the gate, that's a different story, but we're not looking to somehow add a bunch of offense to overcome a big deficit. The goal is to play good defense and not overpay for something you can get at a tenth of the cost.
The break-even idea is just a simple ratio to assess the utility of the degree. How fast do you get back the money in a hypothetical situation? You can use it as the most important single criteria to assess it.

Because the loan agreement itself is a separate issue on liquidity and interest payment, it should be a separate criteria my opinion. If you drag the loan into longer period you end up paying more interest. This is true for any loan, regardless of the worthiness of the investment. If you pay down your loan in 10 years instead of 20 years, you save on interest but live a cash-tight life.

These two are likely to overlap. The faster your breakeven point, the less interest you will incur anyway. You will always have the option to pay off early any loan if you have the money.

Let us say if there is a degree that breaks evens fast, the total loan amount is small, you can even lend your son money to clear the loan fast to avoid high-interest accumulation (since student loan interest is marked slightly above the fixed D rate). So the "theoretical cashflow deficit" you worry don't matter as long as you can extend the cashflow for him.

In Singapore where I live student loan interest begins 6 month after graduation, so some parents just use their money to finish off the loan to enjoy the free interest arbitrage, even they don't need the loan right at the start.

What is his desired major that he couldn't get a scholarship for?

What is his passion?

Is it music related?

Probably this is a choice between $200k 4 year degree in music over a one-year fast track into becoming an audio engineer. In your screenshot, the end journey is the same. Audio engineer with $35k. Then it is a no-brainer to choose the latter path. The former choice is overpay for the title of a "college grad".

Music and sports are probably fields that you cannot study your way to become the next Taylor Swift or Michael Jordon.
 
Last edited:

Andy Black

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I agree, it is outrageous. IMO, this is the final cash grab before it all comes apart.
I made it view-only, and if you are logged into a Google account you should be able to make a copy.

View attachment 48831
Put those instructions into the sheet itself, front and center so users can follow it.






Check out this video and channel:
View: https://youtu.be/qee8joMCHlY



Consider making the sheet simpler (reduce inputs and increase outputs).

Listen to feedback from beta users such as those in this thread so you simplify it.

The guy in that channel likes selling sheets. Personally, I'd convert the sheet into a calculator on a website that people can use and share for free. I'd rather people repeatedly go back to the URL to use the tool than make a copy of the tool.

I've loads of little sheets I created and use, but I don't share them with people because:
  • They'll break them.
  • I'm constantly upversioning them and I don't want old versions floating around.
  • I envisage creating online tools that people find so useful they share the URL and use them repeatedly. My first one is here and it's super simple and I use it regularly. Imagine you had something that simple but with more mass appeal?
 

MitchC

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Assuming four year raw cost is $200k, scholarship is going to waive of $100k, and he will make $50k a year, this investment breaks even in two years.
Just because I feel like arguing.

You should be looking at the increase in income.

Maybe he makes $40k with no degree, or $50k with a degree.

So $10k difference.

He's missing 4 years of making $40k while he studies.

So he's $260k behind by the time he graduates. ($100k in fees, $160k in lost income.)

Now he's making $10k more a year, so he's got 26 years until he's financially better off.

Even excluding the lost income of 4 years of not working, it still takes 10 years.

While this still isn't accurate and taking everything into consideration, it's still very different to your 2 year calculation.
 
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PapaGang

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Just because I feel like arguing.

You should be looking at the increase in income.

Maybe he makes $40k with no degree, or $50k with a degree.

So $10k difference.

He's missing 4 years of making $40k while he studies.

So he's $260k behind by the time he graduates. ($100k in fees, $160k in lost income.)

Now he's making $10k more a year, so he's got 26 years until he's financially better off.

Even excluding the lost income of 4 years of not working, it still takes 10 years.

While this still isn't accurate and taking everything into consideration, it's still very different to your 2 year calculation.

:thumbsup:
You're proving what I learned while doing this. Small input changes result in giant differences.

Other factors:
• Taking into account any of the basic living expenses
• Using after tax pay, not pre-tax figures
• Making room for increased living costs over that time frame ($30k conservatively) and his likely move at some point to NY or LA where "the scene" is
• Taking into account that only 27% of college graduates are actually working in their field of study
• A Hustle Factor that could result in a 20k swing in salary
• Demand for the work (does AI help or hinder?)
• Connections he makes at the school which could vault him into a big opportunity
• etc.

Humans can be really difficult to predict, especially 19 year olds.

The truth is, I can spend weeks adding formulas, trying to anticipate every likely scenario, or I can keep this dirt simple and assume he's going to graduate and get some basic salaried gigs to start off his life, and within 2 years will make a decision whether or not this line of work actually suits him.

I just cannot gamble with a quarter million dollars on this scenario. Not when 25k gets him in a school with professionals that have Grammy winning projects under their belts and are connected to the industry.
 
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PapaGang

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Put those instructions into the sheet itself, front and center so users can follow it.






Check out this video and channel:
View: https://youtu.be/qee8joMCHlY



Consider making the sheet simpler (reduce inputs and increase outputs).

Listen to feedback from beta users such as those in this thread so you simplify it.

The guy in that channel likes selling sheets. Personally, I'd convert the sheet into a calculator on a website that people can use and share for free. I'd rather people repeatedly go back to the URL to use the tool than make a copy of the tool.

I've loads of little sheets I created and use, but I don't share them with people because:
  • They'll break them.
  • I'm constantly upversioning them and I don't want old versions floating around.
  • I envisage creating online tools that people find so useful they share the URL and use them repeatedly. My first one is here and it's super simple and I use it regularly. Imagine you had something that simple but with more mass appeal?
Andy please feel free to make a copy of my sheet and do this. I'm done with it.
People can freely take this and make it into something more awesome, and even make money with it.
I'm not going to touch this thing again. It served its purpose for me and I'm setting it out on the curb for someone else to take. I have other work and other life projects. If you see some awesome potential here, I encourage you to pursue it.
 

Andy Black

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Andy please feel free to make a copy of my sheet and do this. I'm done with it.
People can freely take this and make it into something more awesome, and even make money with it.
I'm not going to touch this thing again. It served its purpose for me and I'm setting it out on the curb for someone else to take. I have other work and other life projects. If you see some awesome potential here, I encourage you to pursue it.
Cool. I'm going to do other calculators and for the UK and Ireland where I understand the market better.
 
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Andy Black

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