I'm good at Sportsinvestment, but my capital is too low

[Wetti]

Hi Ladys and Gentleman,

I'm since 6 years in the sportsbetting buisness, some of you might think its just luck and noone can make profit out of it longterm , but you are wrong. Sportbetting is a market like the stockbuisness YOU CAN MAKE GOOD MONEY OUT OF IT !

And i do, as the sportsbetting market is easier to beat as the stockmarket, because you most of the time play not against the best of the best.

So what can i say, i made since 4 years every year arround 20-60% Profit out of sportsbetting.

I have a Moneymanagment System, i have a risk-managment system , i have a system to beat the ahc lines in 57% of the times in my leagues. ( which means longtime profit as most of the lines do have odds arround 2.2-1.8)

I work arround everyday 4 hours besides my job on it, but what can i say. My capital is too low. As i'm only 21 ( yes i started at the age of 15 ! ) my bank only is 10.000€ at the moment,all money i made from betting. I started with 1000€ at the age of 15.


But what can i say? I dont like my normal job and i want to do Sportsinvestment fulltime, but my capital is too low.


Now i need your help. I want to get Investors into my idea, but i do not know how to find them as most people think that sportsbetting has something to do with luck and if you tell most people about profits from 20-60% a year in general, they think its scam.


How i can find the right people ? I have no Idea

 

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[Luke12321]

You know how people always say, "Well, if you are so good at investing why don't you use your own money to invest and get started"?

Well, that is what I am telling you essentially.

If you SO good at investing in this niche market, why not go work two full-time jobs. Save one check, live off the other. Save a few months up, then start investing the funds in sportsbetting. Then you can quit the second job and make a ton of money, right?

Why go online begging for others money when you have been doing this for years? If I was this confidence with investing in something, I wouldn't have waiting years to go online to a message board to ask for money.

You aren't going to get it here. If you aren't a spammer, good luck. If you are, then I just wasted a few minutes of my life.:coco:

 

[snowbank]

What leagues are you betting? If you can send me a detailed analysis of what you're betting along with the reports tracking your last 4 years I'll put money up if I think that you have an edge. Also please let me know what type of software you're using.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

What leagues are you betting? If you can send me a detailed analysis of what you're betting along with the reports tracking your last 4 years I'll put money up if I think that you have an edge. Also please let me know what type of software you're using.

That's a serious offer that should be seriously considered Wetti!

 

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[CommonCents]

How much money can you put to work? Would you bet the same way betting others money as your own?

If you saved 10K every year from your other jobs to bet, and got your lower return of 20% every year interest just compounded once a year you'd have nearly 400k at the end of 10 yrs.

Investors would want to see your system and your track record. Start with friends and family, as your character would count for more with them.

Here is low low cost idea. Start a blog/website and post your picks and let others see your accuracy. If you are that good, forget betting your own money or anyone elses, you'd be able to sell your weekly picks to thousands of people for big money via subscriptions, 900 hotlines etc....

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Start a blog/website and post your picks and let others see your accuracy.

That truly is the way to scale this ... you could make far more if your picks have accuracy.

I know if I was a regular bettor and your picks had a winnable track record, I'd pay. You could even limit your subscriptions to 10,000 people. (10,000 subscribers X $29/mo is $290,000/mo ... is that Fastlane? YES SIR!)

 

[WestCoast]

This reminds me of an effective e-mail con:


A con artist sends 1000 e-mails to gamblers with a pick for a winner of an upcoming game.
The con sends 500 people the pick of Team A to win, the other 500 people are told Team B.

Based on whichever team actually wins, the con now has 500 people who got the pick from this guy.

Now they repeat, this time just to the 500 people who got the e-mail with the winner in week 1.
The the 500 'winners' are divided again, 250 again getting an e-mail saying Team A will win, the other 250 are told Team B will win.


At the end of two picks, just at random, there are 250 people who think that two weeks in a row, you correctly picked the winner of these games.


Repeat this for 5weeks total and you end up with roughly 25 people who you randomly gave the correct picks to 5 weeks in a row. That might peak their interest a bit, no?


"Hey water cooler friend, this guy picked the game winner five weeks in a row! He must have some new system or some INSIDERS info, let's put some money down on his next pick"


By the power of basic math, the con looks smart to a select few and these 25 people (with 5 weeks in a row of winning picks as hard evidence!) are ready to be fleeced.


This is the power of large numbers and basic math.

--
Not to sound like an old man, but gambling is entertainment (nothing wrong with that), but it's hardly a legitimate business strategy or 'investing'. (unless you're the gambling house getting a cut of the volume!)

 

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[nipsid]

This reminds me of an effective e-mail con program:


1000 random people are sent an e-mail that 'picks' a the winner of a weekend football game. The sender sends 500 of the people e-mails that pick one of the two teams, the other 500 people get the same e-mail picking the other team.

At the end of the week, 500 people look at the results of the game and say... hey, this guy got it right.


The next week, those 500 people who got the 'winner' get another e-mail picking the winner of a random game the next week. Again, half are randomly told one team will win, the other half are told the other team will win.

At the end of week two, you've got 250 people who are very curious

Now repeat this a few more weeks. By basic math, you're going to


After about 5 weeks, to the 25 people who randomly were assigned the winner picks each week, you are looking like HOT STUFF!! 5 picks in a row of winners!!! WOW, this guy must have INSIDERS info!!!


After that, you could probably sell them any sports pick for the next week and they would buy in.

Homer fell for it

[video=vimeo;15414792]http://vimeo.com/15414792[/video]

 

[snowbank]

Not to sound like an old man, but gambling is entertainment (nothing wrong with that), but it's hardly a legitimate business strategy. (unless you're the gambling house getting a cut of the volume!

WestCoast- It's usually not a good strategy to comment on things as fact if you have no knowledge on them, rather than doing due diligence on them to find out if what you naturally assume as true, is or isn't.

In general, if a lot of people assume that something can't be done, there is usually much more money available to be made for those willing to do the due diligence because there is less competition.

The statement you made is the equivalent of telling everyone "don't invest in the stock market, the economy is terrible" because you heard a guy say it on the evening news.

 

[Wetti]

First of all, thank you for your responses.


To the ones who think that only the bookmaker is making money out of betting, just think of the following:

Bookmakers DO NOT estimate the chances of Team to win the game, Bookmakers also estimate what the PEOPLE will think and bet, so they not really care of the true chances for the outcoming of a certain event and that is the chance you have!

To say it very easy: you just have to know the real estimations for the outcomes of a game and you win longterm.

This is surely not easy, but it can be made. And i learned really the first two years of my " career" arround 6 hours a day besides school from a guy who told me the " Value-Investment Strategy for betting "



@snowbank

I will sent you everything by pm , but only have stats from the last 3 years from me.



here you all can see a "public" biography from me:

Tipster "Christian Feuring" - Football tipsters expert on Germany



@ Luke, with 2 jobs , i cant continue betting and i can not stay up to date. Also in germany you need for nearly every job new education.

 

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[x9vjzs098u123rnl]

What leagues are you betting? If you can send me a detailed analysis of what you're betting along with the reports tracking your last 4 years I'll put money up if I think that you have an edge. Also please let me know what type of software you're using.

I saw this thread title and instantly thought of you, especially because you were showing me what staking was.

 

[veli]

Dear Wetti,
First off all let me congratulate you on getting 1k euros til 10k! It shows that you possess what I would say is vital in this (and most other businesses), DISCIPLINE!
However, I am a bit curious about a couple of things.
You write that you have both risk and money management, which is good. But, since you started out six years ago, have you increased your betsize? I mean, is one unit to you equal today as it was 6 years ago? Or are you too afraid to go one step higher with your own money (risk too high?)?
Lets say you (not sure how many times you put in a bet during a week/month, but with all the matches going on in the German top 3 divisions I would assume it would be possible to find 2-3 bets a week at least. Lets say 1k is one unit, and you only use 1 unit on your bets, it would mean you would bet approx 80k-120k a year. With a ROI of 4% that would increase your bankroll to 3k-5k a year, which, granted, is not enough to live on in Germany. But I would like to know more about how many bets/size etc, if you care to share.
PS: What about limitations once you put in higher stakes, are you sure you wont be limited by your bookie(s)? I tried out a system earlier this year, being up about 5k euros, but after that I had trouble putting in higher stakes. (Bookies will gladly take your money as long as you are losing, but once you start winning they will not think twice about putting limits on your bets).
Keep up the good work!

 

[Wetti]

I'm only using flat stake, means every single game i bet on , i bet with the same stake which means 2% of my total bank. If I lost 25% of my bank i calculate down, if i'm 25% up with my bank, i calculate my stake up.

Example 10.000€ * 2% = 200€ each bet , if down to 7500 than *2% = 150€ each bet. If up to 12.500*2% = 250€ each bet .


limitation is no problem for me. I have well connection to asian bookmakers and sportsbetting brokers.

Also with stakes up to 5000€ a bet you have no problems in staking. After that you need the connections to sportsbrokers in asia. With them it is no problem to stake arround 100.000€ on a single bet in germany first league and arround 30.000€-50.000€ in second and third league. I'm glad to have these contacts already.

The only think i need now, is more capital


You can also see some of my stats here:

http://www.bettingexpert.com/de/nutzer/Wetti07

 

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[Rickson9]

This thread is fascinating to me!

 

[Wetti]

Hi Rickson, thank you.

You know its really hard work and if you sit arround 6 years now , everyday after your school/job infront of the Pc to do something which you really like and you are good at, to make it to your fulltime job than it is really hard and you want to see profit. But with low capital the profit is also low , sure 30-60% profit a year is really good. But if you have a bank of 5000 or 10000 than it is only 1500 or 3000€ a year and that stands in no relation to the time you have invested ;-)

Thats why i'm searching for more capital and wanted to know where i can find the right people.

 

[veli]

Wetti,
Have you ever thought about altering your stake from 2% to say 3 or maybe even 4%? Maybe you could do some back testing on it, and see if your bank roll can take the swings?

 

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[Wetti]

Hi veli,

yes i thought of it and even try it with 3% but let me say, its not that easy to manage as a 2% stake. With a stake of 2% you have 50 stakes, with 3% only 33stakes and with 4% you come up to 25stakes.

That is very less and you often have to recalculate your bank ,otherwise you have the chance, even very low, to go broke.

And sure if you want a bit more risk, you can grow your stakes, but for me it is investment. And i more likely have only "30-60%" secure profit in a year, than 200% but inculding the chance to go broke. But i agree that this is a thing of mentality.


Here you can see that loosing streaks can and do happen, its a mathematical thing: Binomial Distribution and You

 

[CommonCents]

Why aren't you selling hundreds or thousands of subscriptions to your picks? You don't need much capital for that and can rack up a big bank roll in a hurry.

 

[Wetti]

Why aren't you selling hundreds or thousands of subscriptions to your picks? You don't need much capital for that and can rack up a big bank roll in a hurry.

I work for owners from that kind of sites who also spend lots of money to advertisment ( talking about 10K-90K€ ). But i saw their subscriptions and i must say hundreds or thousands is far from reality. I dont know why, but betting for most of the people is luck and scam.

 

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[WestCoast]

WestCoast- It's usually not a good strategy to comment on things as fact if you have no knowledge on them, rather than doing due diligence on them to find out if what you naturally assume as true, is or isn't.

In general, if a lot of people assume that something can't be done, there is usually much more money available to be made for those willing to do the due diligence because there is less competition.

The statement you made is the equivalent of telling everyone "don't invest in the stock market, the economy is terrible" because you heard a guy say it on the evening news.

*shrug*

I think you have read a bit much into what I said. I'm not making a moral stand on gambling or telling you guys you are bad people and crazy for gambling.

This guy is a gambler looking for money.

That's fine, and I'm sure there are ways to make money gambling. It doesn't change the fact that he is a gambler looking for money to make larger bets.

That's not a business opportunity, that's a bet.

I just called a spade a spade and tried to interject a bit of reality into the discussion.

 

[hatterasguy]

Well while kind of interesting this is still gambling.

Investors don't gamble they bet on sure things. At the end of the day unless you can predict the outcome of the games with a high level of certainty which is impossible or at best illegal you will not build a fortune over time at this.

I'd recommend directing your efforts to investing.

 

[snowbank]

That truly is the way to scale this ... you could make far more if your picks have accuracy.

I know if I was a regular bettor and your picks had a winnable track record, I'd pay. You could even limit your subscriptions to 10,000 people. (10,000 subscribers X $29/mo is $290,000/mo ... is that Fastlane? YES SIR!)

Why aren't you selling hundreds or thousands of subscriptions to your picks? You don't need much capital for that and can rack up a big bank roll in a hurry.

The reason this won't work is because every certain amount that is bet, the line will change. If the line changes, what you should be betting can change. So, if everyone bet on one side, it would then be correct to bet on the other side of the action. So, basically, your customers who were there just to listen to what you said, instead of understanding why they were betting what they were betting, would all lose money in the long term, instead of making it.(almost impossible not to with the vig) The people who would make money would be the people who bet first, theoretically.

It all depends on the size of the betting market to the size of bets the people are making, but basically there would have to be few enough customers to where the lines wouldn't be changed enough to make them unprofitable.(no idea what the size is for the league he's betting)

 

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[snowbank]

Investors don't gamble they bet on sure things. At the end of the day unless you can predict the outcome of the games with a high level of certainty which is impossible or at best illegal you will not build a fortune over time at this.

I'd recommend directing your efforts to investing.

I'm sure there are ways to make money gambling. It doesn't change the fact that he is a gambler looking for money to make larger bets.

That's not a business opportunity, that's a bet.

you guys are just saying things without speaking with any logic.

hatterasguy, you realize I could strategically do nothing but "gamble" and have a lower risk of ruin than your "investing" that you say you should do, while producing a higher return. do you know why?

which is impossible or at best illegal

lol

 

[snowbank]

At the end of the day if you are making money at something I have no knowledge about or don't understand, it is impossible or at best illegal

..

fyp

 

[MJ DeMarco]

The reason this won't work is because every certain amount that is bet, the line will change.

I would agree but on something as widely bet as say, an NFL game? That is why I would limit the subcribers to some fixed amount ... even 1000 @ $100/mo ($100,000/mo) might be small enough not to effect the line.

Well while kind of interesting this is still gambling.

I disagree. Flipping a coin and betting on the outcome is gambling. Some "gambling" have mathematical probabilities that can be exploited to give the bettor a better advantage. Poker immediately comes to mind.

 

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[Rickson9]

Well while kind of interesting this is still gambling.

Investors don't gamble they bet on sure things. At the end of the day unless you can predict the outcome of the games with a high level of certainty which is impossible or at best illegal you will not build a fortune over time at this.

I'd recommend directing your efforts to investing.

No offense, but this post came across as very arrogant. Only my perspective of course.

Professional poker players gamble too.

 

[snowbank]

I would agree but on something as widely bet as say, an NFL game? That is why I would limit the subcribers to some fixed amount ... even 1000 @ $100/mo ($100,000/mo) might be small enough not to effect the line.

Agreed, something like the NFL will be much harder to move the lines than what he's betting.

 

[veli]

Im sure a lot of people who have invested in stocks during the last few years, and lost money also thought it was a "sure bet". I simply cannot understand how anyone can say that investors bet on sure things. Very few things in life is a sure bet. Wheter it is buying RE, stocks, art or whatever.

Yes, it is gambling, but is a trader a gambler also? While not directly comperable both a sportsbooker and a daytrader makes a bet with each trade they enter. A shopowner who decides to take in a new, unproven product, also makes a bet that it will sell. If it doesnt he will most probably lose money.
They will not win every bet, but winning more bets than you lose will/can make you a good roi. As has been mentioned before, its all about probabilities, and making good use of them. There are people making a living of sportsbetting, just because some people dont like it or dont like gambling doesnt mean it shouldnt be considered as a legit business.

 

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[Wetti]

First of all , i really hate it if someone call it gambling, sorry but this has nothing to do with gambling at all.

Its a strict analyse about the games.

Where is the diffrent if you analyse a team or a company? Only that the team might be much easier to analyse then the whole district of a company.

You might say now, yes but if the team lose, you lose also. Right but i do not take a single bet with my whole amount of money, there exist money managment plans like in every other Investmentcompany in this world. I take arround 600-1000 bets each season, sometimes if i take picks from good contacts i have arround 2000 bets and than you have 2000 times the odds on your side. And it will bring you profit for sure.



Snowbank is right, pick selling is not the best way to do it, because most of the people get angry because lines and odds move and you have no chance to say if this happens if you have 10 or 1000 costumers. Because if there exist only 1 costumer in my league who bets arround 5000€ we have an odd movement of 0,03 in a single bookie.

But i cannot agree that NFL is harder to change the lines with some bigger amount of money.I dont know the USA Bookies, but i think that the bookies where the most people bet are also fast changing lines.


Also people have to take the "open" bookies, means bookies which accept also low bets like 100-5000€ . I know bookies in asia who accept lowest bets of 50.000€ but which "normal" costumer of your picks will be in that high sections?

So line and odds changing is a very big problem for pick sellors and its a main reason why this works not that good.

 

[hatterasguy]

Im sure a lot of people who have invested in stocks during the last few years, and lost money also thought it was a "sure bet". I simply cannot understand how anyone can say that investors bet on sure things. Very few things in life is a sure bet. Wheter it is buying RE, stocks, art or whatever.

No offense but you don't understand what investing is. I don't gamble, bet or whatever you want to call it. To me it sounds like your hedging your risk by spreading it over a bunch of bets. That would be a lot smarter and safer than betting on one team to win one game. However at the end of the day even though you can do research on the teams you are not 100% sure what team will win. In other words lets break it down to the most basic, one of your 1k bets on one game. You have at best a 50/50 chance of picking the correct team, maybe with some research you can bump this up a bit. This is actually very smiler to how most people invest in the stock market and, they don't make jack doing it. Its like a labor intensive 401K.

Investing is quite different, when you invest you don't put a dime of your money out until you know you will get a return. The return can very a bit, but you know unless something horrible goes wrong you will get a return. For example when I buy a parcel of property I already know what I can get for a house on it, I won't buy it if I don't. I also know what its going to cost me to build, what the city will let me do, and all the details that can cost me money. So when i write the check for the property my money is already made, I just need to execute. Could things go wrong? Sure, that's life, but not 50% of the time, maybe .o1%.