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Man I read many of your posts and some of your predictions were correct. But I have a hard time understanding your way of thinking.<br />
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Some months ago you were like "BTC to 100k end of March/mid-May". Then BTC hits ATH, then drop, and you got out directly, saying we wouldn't see BTC at 100k on this bull run.<br />
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It took a minor correction to change your 8 weeks prediction. And now you're making 3-5 years predictions, and abandoned BTC to 100k to say that it is not efficient and will be replaced.<br />
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I don't know if i express myself well, but it feels like your 5 years predictions are made on daily news that will no longer be relevant next week, and will hence change your long-term predictions, so why bother even making them? Everything changes so fast in that space that it is nearly impossible to look past 4 weeks.
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This is fair. Your point of flip flopping is indeed factual. However, there are some things missing from it that needs clarifying.<br />
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First, we have to take a look at the type of predictions I make. My predictions (for the most part) aren't Monday morning quarterbank type things, not even close. I don't predict or mention things when signs or even the trend starts showing up. It's easy to yell we are approaching a waterfall when it comes into view.<br />
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My predictions are usually bold, bold when there is zero signs of that prediction even going to unfold.<br />
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In most times; in hindsight.. the context in that time, given the information, etc. is all lost. So it makes that prediction seem "average" when in fact, at that time, was the craziest non-sense to ever mention or say.<br />
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With that said; there does come a time when one must get more active. In this case; tops. Its a staircase up and an elevator down. The window of identifying if we are approaching or at the distribution sell-off top range is much much smaller than the ride up. Also, during the top ranges; there is ALOT of volatility and action. Even this thread is super active. If we take the 3 flip flops that I did and proportionately compare it to the amount of activity during the big exponential pumps up; it's relatively low.<br />
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I haven't looked but it's probably been about once a month since the big take offs when I posted a big prediction post, and before that it was about once every 2-4 months.<br />
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Now to address the actual flip flopping...<br />
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When trying to figure out if we are getting toppy, <b>it's all about sentiment</b>. <b>Nothing will tell you, you are at the top, no indicator, no chart, nothing.. however, seeing how people feel and act will tell you exactly where the top is.</b><br />
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So as things go up, it's not Price but Sentiment. Price targets are just broad things to aim at from the momentum. If we take the momentum we saw from $28k to $40k, the momentum was there to make $100k a target. However; the number 1 thing that takes priority is sentiment reading. Because momentum can change and die out quick due to an even quicker rise, etc. Had we treked slower up from $40k to $60k, then the momentum would still be in favor for $100k, but its when we did bursts up and then sentiment began matching toppy'ness is when you throw all that out the window.<br />
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So that explains the $100k switch up on the target. <br />
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There was the one time I got super bearish. That was $28k. If you noticed, prior to that; I actually called a good spot to get out before that big correction dip. However, its when we remained at the bottom and the price action in broad time frames looked extremely weak and suspect and matching every bit of another leg down.<br />
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And... I believe, if it wasn't for Tesla and Elon coming out the complete blue about Bitcoin; then Bitcoin would of in fact made it's way down from there into a bear market. From $28k to $65k was <b>ONLY</b> Elon Musk driven. Thats when the glass bricks were being built on the pyramid. Bricks made of hype and greed. The same engine on the airplane that brings up you, will also be reason why the airplane will go back down when that same engine runs out of fuel.<br />
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At the time, given all the conditions and sentiment, etc. etc... Reversing and remaining bearish from that correction would have been the wisest move.<br />
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Running out of finger strength to keep typing but hopefully, in a nutshell, that kind of clarifies why there was some flip flopping.</div>
