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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

OverByte

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To put it in simpler terms, in my opinion, bitcoin is like buying land or a house right now and all of these major alts are like buying into the tech companies in 1997 and 98 before the tech boom and collapse that followed.

I agree with this viewpoint. It also matches Saylor's comments in one of the videos. I think he describes the alts as "ventures", and compares investing in them to be acting like a VC (and essentially expecting most of them to go to 0 with 1 or 2 hoping to pay off the losses on the others since it will likely be (eventual) winner takes all).

Thanks for the input about the loan mechanics. I'll have to look into this more.
 
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James Fake

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Dude he is doing a lot of His own technical analysis and reading the charts how he sees it.

Thanks man! Right on point.

There's def some interesting observations on how people interpret other's predictions. There's typically 3 groups I noticed:

1) People who appreciate counter arguments. May not agree, but keeps in back of mind to watch out for signs of if things don't go to their plan. (what I do personally and I think mostly the majority here, as I believe it makes a much more powerful well-rounded weapon trader/investor). And I think due to such a sudden drop, a few members here were curious to see what additional non-sense I was thinking lol

2) People who completely dismiss counters as not even possible. If by chance the prediction is right; they normally hate the player, and not the game market.

3) People who completely adopt the counter 110% and toss money in blindly. Yikes lol

I honestly whole-heartedly dislike sharing my bearish predictions if I see thats the way the market may be moving soon. Being pessimistic sucks, and getting a pessimistic call right sucks even more.
 

James Fake

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I honestly whole-heartedly dislike sharing my bearish predictions if I see thats the way the market may be moving soon. Being pessimistic sucks, and getting a pessimistic call right sucks even more.

Actually.. this brings up a huge personal pain that I've never addressed here.

The Covid Prediction.

It haunts me. I absolutely hate it. Even though my intentions were good in yelling a warning at the top of my lungs; I almost feel guilt-ful as if I even caused it. I take ZERO pride in being right. Lots of people died and Lives were completely destroyed in may different aspects. DESTROYED.

It does bother me that some folks portrayed me as the guy screaming "See I told you so!" while the world was burning. Because the fact is; I never did. NO WHERE did I ever say or express any joy in being right while it was all going down.

In fact, I was doing the complete opposite, I wasn't on an internet forum arguing, I left; I was down in the trenches bustling and scrapping to get elderly people/healthcare workers food, toilet paper, personal protection when the shit completely hit the fan on shut downs up to the point where I couldn't legally do it anymore.

Anyways,... yeah, just kind of rambling as that brought up some stuff.
 

James Fake

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Man I read many of your posts and some of your predictions were correct. But I have a hard time understanding your way of thinking.

Some months ago you were like "BTC to 100k end of March/mid-May". Then BTC hits ATH, then drop, and you got out directly, saying we wouldn't see BTC at 100k on this bull run.

It took a minor correction to change your 8 weeks prediction. And now you're making 3-5 years predictions, and abandoned BTC to 100k to say that it is not efficient and will be replaced.

I don't know if i express myself well, but it feels like your 5 years predictions are made on daily news that will no longer be relevant next week, and will hence change your long-term predictions, so why bother even making them? Everything changes so fast in that space that it is nearly impossible to look past 4 weeks.

This is fair. Your point of flip flopping is indeed factual. However, there are some things missing from it that needs clarifying.

First, we have to take a look at the type of predictions I make. My predictions (for the most part) aren't Monday morning quarterbank type things, not even close. I don't predict or mention things when signs or even the trend starts showing up. It's easy to yell we are approaching a waterfall when it comes into view.

My predictions are usually bold, bold when there is zero signs of that prediction even going to unfold.

In most times; in hindsight.. the context in that time, given the information, etc. is all lost. So it makes that prediction seem "average" when in fact, at that time, was the craziest non-sense to ever mention or say.

With that said; there does come a time when one must get more active. In this case; tops. Its a staircase up and an elevator down. The window of identifying if we are approaching or at the distribution sell-off top range is much much smaller than the ride up. Also, during the top ranges; there is ALOT of volatility and action. Even this thread is super active. If we take the 3 flip flops that I did and proportionately compare it to the amount of activity during the big exponential pumps up; it's relatively low.

I haven't looked but it's probably been about once a month since the big take offs when I posted a big prediction post, and before that it was about once every 2-4 months.

Now to address the actual flip flopping...

When trying to figure out if we are getting toppy, it's all about sentiment. Nothing will tell you, you are at the top, no indicator, no chart, nothing.. however, seeing how people feel and act will tell you exactly where the top is.

So as things go up, it's not Price but Sentiment. Price targets are just broad things to aim at from the momentum. If we take the momentum we saw from $28k to $40k, the momentum was there to make $100k a target. However; the number 1 thing that takes priority is sentiment reading. Because momentum can change and die out quick due to an even quicker rise, etc. Had we treked slower up from $40k to $60k, then the momentum would still be in favor for $100k, but its when we did bursts up and then sentiment began matching toppy'ness is when you throw all that out the window.

So that explains the $100k switch up on the target.

There was the one time I got super bearish. That was $28k. If you noticed, prior to that; I actually called a good spot to get out before that big correction dip. However, its when we remained at the bottom and the price action in broad time frames looked extremely weak and suspect and matching every bit of another leg down.

And... I believe, if it wasn't for Tesla and Elon coming out the complete blue about Bitcoin; then Bitcoin would of in fact made it's way down from there into a bear market. From $28k to $65k was ONLY Elon Musk driven. Thats when the glass bricks were being built on the pyramid. Bricks made of hype and greed. The same engine on the airplane that brings up you, will also be reason why the airplane will go back down when that same engine runs out of fuel.

At the time, given all the conditions and sentiment, etc. etc... Reversing and remaining bearish from that correction would have been the wisest move.

Running out of finger strength to keep typing but hopefully, in a nutshell, that kind of clarifies why there was some flip flopping.
 
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James Fake

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For pure shits and giggles, if someone wants to play a bounce... the time to buy into this dip will ideally be around the 25th of this month. Give or take a day or two.

I have no idea why but if you look at the past 4-5 months, you will see Bitcoin does a sell off and the bottom of those (before a pump back up) is right at or around the 25th of the month.

My suspicion is that big money is playing swing trades around the Inflation Fear. Selling at or shortly after the time the CPI report is released and all media and people are talking about Inflation blah blah. And then buying back in around the 25th for the run up due to anticipation of retail traders of higher inflation numbers being released on that 10th-13th of the month range.
 

Frinys

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Agreed. No arguing here at all about the security. My concern was more so what happens to Bitcoin when better alternatives that can provide the same thing come to the fore front? And can improve on its weaknesses (transfers)?
As I see it, there isn't any real alternative to Bitcoin. There will be other options, indeed, but none which provide the same security and decentralization. I'll try to explain my thoughts as best as I can.

For most use cases, Ethereum or something else will be the better option. We are already seeing that Bitcoin's market share shrinks. This trend will continue, simply because there are more great solutions now than five years ago. But these solutions will not push Bitcoin out of the road, they will share it with Bitcoin. Why is this?

Proof of Work is still the only truly decentralized consensus mechanism that also is self-regulating. Anyone can start mining (securing the network), whenever they want. If miners leave in one country, another country will benefit by having more miners jumping on the wagon.

There is this constant battle between miners, forcing miners to mine for less and less profit. And at some point in the future, mining expenses will be equal to the revenue. If someone mines at a loss, they will quit. As soon as one miner quits, a new one will enter, because then there is room for profit.

The forces behind PoW mining, will, therefore, always maximize the blockchain's hashrate and energy usage. It's always going to be the most secure and decentralized protocol because there will always be new miners joining, pushing the hashrate up and energy cost down. PoW is the only protocol that achieves this.

But we common people don't need this security. We don't need it when I do a transaction. I bet no one here is going to need the security Bitcoin provides at any point in our lives. Bitcoin is simply growing out of the common people's use cases.

And this is where I think you are right. We will probably not use Bitcoin. We will use something else, something cheaper, something faster, and less secure. Bitcoin is slow and expensive. Ethereum will be used much more for daily things, as long as the transition to 2.0 is successful.

This is also where I think you are wrong. I think Bitcoin will grow out of the "transaction" stage, to the "secure" stage. Think large systems, utilizing Bitcoin as a Proof of Existence. Things like Stacks, which inherits Bitcoin's security by sending Bitcoin transactions containing metadata. Like Omni. Like Komodo. Like VeriBlock. Bitcoin's security providing potential is barely touched.

This is why I'm not concerned about Bitcoin. It's not the fastest, but it's the first PoW coin, and PoW has its unique property explained above. Bitcoin is currently moving from stage 1, a currency, to stage 2, becoming the world's security providing mechanism. I'm not concerned because there is no real alternative to Bitcoin, unless miners stop mining Bitcoin before it has entered stage 2, which I find highly unlikely.
 

James Fake

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This is also where I think you are wrong. I think Bitcoin will grow out of the "transaction" stage, to the "secure" stage. Think large systems, utilizing Bitcoin as a Proof of Existence. Things like Stacks, which inherits Bitcoin's security by sending Bitcoin transactions containing metadata. Like Omni. Like Komodo. Like VeriBlock. Bitcoin's security providing potential is barely touched.

WOW. This... I've never thought about the security side of Bitcoin versus the "store of value" "inflation hedge" "currency" as that is popular. This is actually extremely interesting and I can completely see where this comes into play especially as we see net security being one of the biggest threats to... everything lol. I mean one pipeline was taken out, and people went nuts... that's like micro to other things.

Broadly off my mind; it would be like third party 'plugin/app/blockchain' that use the security of Bitcoin's network by creating its own security network within it. Basically, another blockchain inside that blockchain. Mathematical equation hidden by the network as a composition of letters in a combination of wallet addresses (like take first letter of each wallet, and then put tidbits of Bitcoin into a bunch of wallets.. and all those letters combined is the next equation that needs unlocked/computated).

Hmm..... I wonder what impacts this has on the price of Bitcoin. Because essentially, in order to run, miners would need to make profit. In order to make profit, somebody has to pay for it. This could actually "level and stabilize" the price of Bitcoin as reduce the volatility everyone complains about.. I guess the question is.. what price floor is that stability going to come in at when all this goes down when who knows when lol
 
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Antifragile

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WOW. This... I've never thought about the security side of Bitcoin versus the "store of value" "inflation hedge" "currency" as that is popular. This is actually extremely interesting and I can completely see where this comes into play especially as we see net security being one of the biggest threats to... everything lol. I mean one pipeline was taken out, and people went nuts... that's like micro to other things.

Broadly off my mind; it would be like third party 'plugin/app/blockchain' that use the security of Bitcoin's network by creating its own security network within it. Basically, another blockchain inside that blockchain. Mathematical equation hidden by the network as a composition of letters in a combination of wallet addresses (like take first letter of each wallet, and then put tidbits of Bitcoin into a bunch of wallets.. and all those letters combined is the next equation that needs unlocked/computated).

Hmm..... I wonder what impacts this has on the price of Bitcoin. Because essentially, in order to run, miners would need to make profit. In order to make profit, somebody has to pay for it. This could actually "level and stabilize" the price of Bitcoin as reduce the volatility everyone complains about.. I guess the question is.. what price floor is that stability going to come in at when all this goes down when who knows when lol


Reading last few posts is most interesting. On the one hand we see arguments that Bitcoin is not a “store of value” or “currency” only to later come around to saying that if properly used as a “security“ it’s value will stabilize. But by that logic, with stable value it does become a “store of value” and thus may attract again abnormal amount of interest from the most unlikely groups.

I come from RE background. Here is what’s interesting in history. Pension funds used to have minor allocations to RE and when they did, these institutional investors only bought Class-A office space. It used to be the most stable investment (think “store of value” + cash flow). Today things have changes. Big time. Office space that used to be occupied by publicly traded companies that were considered “stable” are no longer such. To analyze stability of your investment into office space you would rely on the quality of tenants. To do that you’d look at their financial statements and how well they did. Not so long ago, only highly profitable companies were able to be listed on public stock exchanges.
This meant that office tenants were the best tenants. But today you have the “Uber” type of PubCos that lose money over and over. Office tenants aren’t as good an investment as it used to be. And the institutional investors started taking on value-add opportunities! This simply means more risk. Yields are so low that they can’t meet their pension obligations, they are forced to more risky assets (such as value add).

Long way to say something simple, when yields are low and capital is abundant - money flows to high risk. This creates the investments into crypto by larger groups. And as long as the capital is abundant and yields are low, that’ll continue. But as soon as we see a major contraction (or recession like 2008 GFC), the money will be sucked out of these high risk / higher yield investments. The air of a balloon flows out faster than it goes in.

And if the security use of Bitcoin makes its value stable, it’ll attract more interest from institutional investor. This will drive it’s price up.

What I can’t tell is what is that value. Is it $10k or $100k? Who the hell knows? My own speculation is that its closer to $100k than to $10k.
 

daivey

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Meanwhile I am here enjoying a 5x realized return yoy on my initial investment - with still holdings.

Whereas my stocks portfolio has a 3x yoy mainly due to the covid Dip.
hows that working out
 

scottmsul

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REALLY big news that NO ONE is talking about.

Ever heard of NYDIG? They provide custody for institutional clients. They're very quiet about their operations, but they're the ones behind the scenes driving institutional adoption. Back in February Ross Stevens mentioned they had $6 billion under management and growing at 75 clients per month.

Recently they've partnered with FIS to provide access to bitcoin...FROM YOUR BANK.

"What you will see over the next 12-24 months is nothing short of an explosion in bitcoin-driven financial innovation. In the banking sector, in the insurance sector, even in salaries."

Imagine being able to set 5%, 10%, 20%, or any percent of your salary be denominated in bitcoin.
Imagine getting bitcoin rewards from your Wells Fargo credit card.
Imagine spending from a bitcoin-denominated debit account and having it automatically convert to fiat behind the scenes.

We are in for a wild ride. Forget the halving, this is MUCH bigger.

NYDIG Co-founder Ross Stevens released an interview this week where he talks about this:
 
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Timmy C

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REALLY big news that NO ONE is talking about.

Ever heard of NYDIG? They provide custody for institutional clients. They're very quiet about their operations, but they're the ones behind the scenes driving institutional adoption. Back in February Ross Stevens mentioned they had $6 billion under management and growing at 75 clients per month.

Recently they've partnered with FIS to provide access to bitcoin...FROM YOUR BANK.

"What you will see over the next 12-24 months is nothing short of an explosion in bitcoin-driven financial innovation. In the banking sector, in the insurance sector, even in salaries."

Imagine being able to set 5%, 10%, 20%, or any percent of your salary be denominated in bitcoin.
Imagine getting bitcoin rewards from your Wells Fargo credit card.
Imagine spending from a bitcoin-denominated debit account and having it automatically convert to fiat behind the scenes.

We are in for a wild ride. Forget the halving, this is MUCH bigger.

NYDIG Co-founder Ross Stevens released an interview this week where he talks about this:


Quite ironic since Bitcoin makes banking irrelevant.
 

scottmsul

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Quite ironic since Bitcoin makes banking irrelevant.
Not quite. In the end there just isn't enough block space for every transaction to happen on-chain. Banks are needed for mass adoption and to batch transactions. In the words of Hal Finney from way back in 2010:

Actually there is a very good reason for Bitcoin-backed banks to exist, issuing their own digital cash currency, redeemable for bitcoins. Bitcoin itself cannot scale to have every single financial transaction in the world be broadcast to everyone and included in the block chain. There needs to be a secondary level of payment systems which is lighter weight and more efficient. Likewise, the time needed for Bitcoin transactions to finalize will be impractical for medium to large value purchases.

Bitcoin backed banks will solve these problems. They can work like banks did before nationalization of currency. Different banks can have different policies, some more aggressive, some more conservative. Some would be fractional reserve while others may be 100% Bitcoin backed. Interest rates may vary. Cash from some banks may trade at a discount to that from others.

George Selgin has worked out the theory of competitive free banking in detail, and he argues that such a system would be stable, inflation resistant and self-regulating.

I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash. Most Bitcoin transactions will occur between banks, to settle net transfers. Bitcoin transactions by private individuals will be as rare as... well, as Bitcoin based purchases are today.
 

Timmy C

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Not quite. In the end there just isn't enough block space for every transaction to happen on-chain. Banks are needed for mass adoption and to batch transactions. In the words of Hal Finney from way back in 2010:



Yeh, I suppose your right on that.
There are scaling solutions happening off-chain lightning, taproot improvements etc. So we will see how it goes.
I still don't see banks in the current version today having a future.
 
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Intax

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I don't know how you could think bitcoin energy is wasteful still.

It's embarrassing at this point.

Elon says bad I agree now. PLEAZZEEE

Think for yourself and do some deep work.
Yeah bitcoin is taking a lot of energy and this is one of the concerns I have for my long-term investment in bitcoin. I talked a lot with my professor about it and the problem is that the higher the price of bitcoin is the more infrastructure for mining will be built because the reward for mining justifies the costs of building new infrastructure for mining. But the only benefit of this is increased security of the network (if there is more electricity its harder to fraud the system because you need more than 50 % of the provided energy of the network).
So yeah except from the increased security of the network the increasing energy consumption could be seen as "waste". The only question is if this high security justifies the increasing energy consumption and how the world will look at this with speeding climate change.
So no there is not just bullshit behind elons post even though it didn't keep me from investing in bitcoin and ether yesterday.
 

Frinys

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WOW. This... I've never thought about the security side of Bitcoin versus the "store of value" "inflation hedge" "currency" as that is popular. This is actually extremely interesting and I can completely see where this comes into play especially as we see net security being one of the biggest threats to... everything lol. I mean one pipeline was taken out, and people went nuts... that's like micro to other things.

Broadly off my mind; it would be like third party 'plugin/app/blockchain' that use the security of Bitcoin's network by creating its own security network within it. Basically, another blockchain inside that blockchain. Mathematical equation hidden by the network as a composition of letters in a combination of wallet addresses (like take first letter of each wallet, and then put tidbits of Bitcoin into a bunch of wallets.. and all those letters combined is the next equation that needs unlocked/computated).

Hmm..... I wonder what impacts this has on the price of Bitcoin. Because essentially, in order to run, miners would need to make profit. In order to make profit, somebody has to pay for it. This could actually "level and stabilize" the price of Bitcoin as reduce the volatility everyone complains about.. I guess the question is.. what price floor is that stability going to come in at when all this goes down when who knows when lol
Exactly. I think very few, if anyone, the potential of such a security providing system that Bitcoin is growing into.

I too have wondered a lot about how this is going to affect the price long term. I've not gotten any smarter yet. Will update here when I have an epiphany, but I doubt that will soon.
 

GPM

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For everyone who cries about how much energy bitcoin takes, I wish it took 100x, 1000x, 100,000x as much energy as it does.

Want the world to get a better energy source and to figure it out? Start stressing a grid using antiquated technology.

Imagine if WE HAD to find a new energy source, and if we wanted life to continue as it is we HAD to find something better. Well, it isn't going to happen through people crying about our energy usage and the government doing government things. It is going to happen when energy demand becomes so great that we need to figure it out.

In other news my CHIA rig is going along strong. A few hiccups along the way, but I think I have it mostly figured out. I should have all my current drives full sometime next month. I don't have this running even close to as efficient as I could be, as I have not have the time to look into plotman and setting up automation. But I figured out some slacker way to keep it running a few days at a time before I need to touch it. I will start earning some chia right in time for Crytpo winter I figure. Awesome timing as usual!
 
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Timmy C

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Ok I have one for all of you:

Have a look at the protocols that benefit when morons leverage trade and get Rekt when the market tanks.
Enter Duck Protocol below:

Don't ape into anything, calculate if it makes sense for you.
DONT GET RUGGED. RUG RISK HIGHER END WITH DUCK.

quack quack.
 
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Someone in this thread mentionned their cousin or brother in law that invested 100k in eth from selling his house some weeks ago....

All i wanna know is: is he hodling?
 

Timmy C

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Someone in this thread mentionned their cousin or brother in law that invested 100k in eth from selling his house some weeks ago....

All i wanna know is: is he hodling?
If he's dumb enough to sell his house for it, he is 100% dumb enough to have sold.
 
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Ing

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This thread is super active in a bull run, then when everyone's portfolio is sinking we just pretend crypto doesn't exist lmao
Whats crypto?

We allready agreed, that next to co e is a winter. Maybe with some small storms rearing up.
So as my portfolio is near zero now, I will have a look on the charts and act, when the ebb is there.
 
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JamesQB8

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Really interesting observations right now. A lot of retail sold off and smart money is buying as we're getting choppy.

Either this is an amazing buying opportunity before we go up again. Or we just long term bear and this thread gets real quiet again
 

Timmy C

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Whats crypto?

We allready agreed, that next to co e is a winter. Maybe with some small storms rearing up.
So as my portfolio is near zero now, I will have a look on the charts and act, when the ebb is there.
5amp0j.jpg
 
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Timmy C

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Don't be a paper-handed pussy people. I for one have ZERO intention of selling any coins to these big institutions at all. They can suck on these nuts.

Funny story. I bought the BTC dip at about 47 then at about 43k. Thought that was surely close enough to a bottom.

Proceeded to watch it dump to 30k within hours. I immediately started laughing.
Cheap coins, get your cheap coins.
 

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Whatever the price is, my computers never intentionally turn off. So during the whole crypto winter thing, my holdings are going to be doing exactly what they are going to be doing.... hopefully that coincides with actual winter and it will heat my house as well. Reusing heat rather than venting it outside is awesome
 

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Something something Elon Musk and China, and coal is bad, and ESG because climate is important and EVs, with the dog flying on a magic Vitalik rug on its way to the moon.

Therefore...

Im sure we've entered a bear market. Sorry guys its been a fun ride, we're surely going to be in a 3 year bear market now better sell everything. Quick buy up those dollars before they mint more.

Oh DeFi worked like a charm during a blackswan event worse than the March2020 crash?

Pretty sure it doesn't mean anything.

CrYpTocurrenCees are in essence giant software companies with a global workforce and a boundless sandbox to work in. People are organizing and deploying massive human and capital resources often fully remote, 24hours a day 7 days a week working on the financial rails of the future of money.

But I'm sure for the next 3 years nobody will hear about this crypto scam thing. It's all going away. Party is over guys quit paying attention. The current banking system that was setup by a group of thugs some 100 years ago is perfect and is what humanity needs. We can't possibly have a trustless banking mechanism, we absolutely need these assholes to hold our money because we couldn't possibly ever come to consensus without a third party to mediate our agreements.

Maybe in 3 years something something bitcoin supply halving and fibbonachi retracements and cRypToCurrencies and stuff so prices may go back up again.
 

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