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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

AceVentures

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Binance coin is basically a clone of ETH exactly.
But they took the easy route (not solving any problems and using centralization to lower fees, increase speed etc)
ETH is the value play, I don't care if Binance coin or Ripple pump 10,000%
I WILL NOT BUY THEM.

ETH will stand the test of time.

Just be patient, we will be fine.

1618410057333.png

lmao I kid I kid.

I really think you're right. ETH IS the value-play. ETH is where it's all at. I'm a huge fan. My long-term bet is ETH flips BTC.

If you're more risk averse - go with ETH.

If you're more risk tolerant - feel free to experiment. I started experimenting when everyone was telling me my bags are gonna dump 90+% and I should be careful. I ditched that advice and followed my intuition. My BNB bag is up ~10x from that time, just a few months ago, and some of my other bags have seen crazy multiples in such a short time frame.

It still seems like a house of cards, so I try not take myself seriously.

In any case, I would rather be rich than to be right.
 
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Frinys

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How so? Decentralized cryptocurrency solves a whole bunch of problems and introduces a whole host of new ones. For the majority of use cases, don't most people prefer the convenience and security of "trusted third party" transactions like Visa/PayPal/Banks?
It really depends on what layer you look at. Everything should not be decentralized, but the core should.

The internet is a decentralized system. That is one of the reasons why it's so successful. But there are many centralized solutions utilizing the internet.

When we talk about smart chains, we mean chains that are able to run smart contracts. It's much more than just digital money and is in many ways comparable to the internet.

There is nothing wrong with centralized solutions being built on top of a smart chain. But the smart chain itself should be decentralized.
 

AceVentures

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You wanna know what coin is going to pump next? Grab a relatively low IQ friend with no exposure to crypto, give them $100 and let them pick something on Coinbase.

It will moon shortly thereafter.
 
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nitrousflame

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You wanna know what coin is going to pump next? Grab a relatively low IQ friend with no exposure to crypto, give them $100 and let them pick something on Coinbase.

It will moon shortly thereafter.
55nisa.jpg
 

Kevin88660

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I disagree. Centralization is like putting a barrier in front of the blockchain, essentially saying this is my chain, not ours. Yes, you can use it, but I control it.

Why do you think there are so many Ethereum Improvement Proposals? Because everyone owns the chain. Try to find the same for BNB, you won't.

No. Centralization like a layer of makeup that makes the chain look good to investors with less technical knowledge.


The world has been moving toward open-source for the last 20 years. Why? Because we notice that it's better to have many people controlling the codebase than just a few. This does not mean that open source software is built by bandits, rather the opposite.


Both centralized and decentralized blockchain solutions avoid SPOFs. The move from centralized to decentralized is both very hard and extremely risky. Cardano is close to making it, but they still have centralized issued that need to be solved.

The point is, we still haven't seen many chains make the shift from a centralized to a fully decentralized structure yet.


This is simply not true. Yes, miners want to keep on mining, but stakers are ready to take the role. But I agree, the shift towards Eth 2.0 is a difficult one. I'm not convinced that they will be able to do it effectively.

Centralized solutions are effective, yes. It's easy to have low fees when you don't have to reward protectors of the chain. And both private and consortium blockchains plays a role in the blockchain space, but decentralized solutions will be the one that exists forever. And by forever, I mean as long as the Internet exists.

Some solutions, like VeChain, can use consortium blockchains because their main focus is on B2B operations. But smart contract chains meant for the public cannot do this and expect to live a long life.
My take on decentralization is that while it is good for the long run to avoid a single point of failure, it will likely lose the darwinian competition in the short- medium term.

The key thing is incentive structure. No body cleans a public property voluntarily. No body pays tax voluntarily. So everyone talks about how to improve the ethereum network in theory. Who is going to spend the time, money and effort to compete against Binance who has every incentive to develop their own ecosystem?

Ethereum foundation just don’t have the equal amount of incentives to fight on this. So when things get tough they will question what they are doing this for? For eth whales to get richer? Or for Uniswap reaching all time high valuation? What is there for us?
 
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AceVentures

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Exactly. There are a lot of Cex supported new defi projects coming, (bsc and heco) chain giving insane rewards for their lp pool that contains their native token. Given that we are still in a bull market after a major correction for defi token prices, the risk reward is heavily favouring people who take the jump and participate in the program.

A 150 percent return yield on LP and additional 150 percent return on native token reward, means that to lose money holding it for a year the native token has to lose 80 percent of the value.

This does not even price in the fact that if the project has a good price to tvl ratio against top projects like sushi and uniswap, it has a major upside potential in capital appreciation in your native token.

It is like buying a call option that gives super high yield.

Binance and Huobi want to fight with the ethereum empire for the defi market share and they will do whatever it takes through stuffing money into the users’s pockets.

View: https://twitter.com/wawin/status/1375560096684646404
 
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mguerra

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The BEFORE:

View attachment 37562


On TradingView prediction posts; you can hit the Play button to see how one's prediction went. Here's the AFTER (this week when it popped and breaking out the big weekly ascending triangle:
View attachment 37563

My mid-term target is $77,000.

I will be doing an ultra deep analysis on the markets and Bitcoin and crypto and sentiment and mass psy when we get around to this area.

Something in my gut telling me to take a deep look at if it's a possibility a mid-term Big Top is put in place somewhere before $100k. To be determined lol...

Hey @James Fake , I have two questions for you:

1) What do you mean by mid-term? By the end of this month (April) or maybe a bit longer?

2) Do you think we are having a correction (30-40% pullback) before that 77k target?

Thanks in advance, brother - I really value your insights and predictions

(even when it takes longer than expected... lol!)
 

GPM

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I need to read up on what VET did, I hold a bit but have not looked into it in a while. It has been doing some insane moves lately, 20% a day a few days now!

I was going to trade it for BTC or ETH this run, but I think I might just hold it all until this whole show goes parabolic and then crashes into smithereens and everyone is crying and wanting to drive off a bridge. At which point I will take my paper money and 10x my holdings.
 

GPM

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I like how throughout the years people have been saying Bitcoin is a bubble... when is it going to pop??
More like a balloon that lets a bit of air out every now and then. Or one of those inflatable boats that has been left in the sun and now requires 2x the air to fill because it just keeps getting bigger and fatter. That is what bitcoin is like, a kids inflatable boat left out in the sun. Tell your friends
 

Timmy C

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I need to read up on what VET did, I hold a bit but have not looked into it in a while. It has been doing some insane moves lately, 20% a day a few days now!

I was going to trade it for BTC or ETH this run, but I think I might just hold it all until this whole show goes parabolic and then crashes into smithereens and everyone is crying and wanting to drive off a bridge. At which point I will take my paper money and 10x my holdings.
Yeh my VET is doing well.

I am selling a tiny bit when I get home.

I like to take a bit off the top along the way as you never know!
 

James Fake

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Hey @James Fake , I have two questions for you:

1) What do you mean by mid-term? By the end of this month (April) or maybe a bit longer?

2) Do you think we are having a correction (30-40% pullback) before that 77k target?

Thanks in advance, brother - I really value your insights and predictions

(even when it takes longer than expected... lol!)

Haha.. yeah, trying to juggle and launch a few things; I'm terrible at responding fast.

There are a few factors and signals and signs involved that I am actively looking for, but at the exact moment right now:

1) I am aiming at 21-24th of April. If not, possibly no later than til the end of May.

2) No big correction before the $77k target. I think it should be a fairly decent uptrend.

Of course; the above two can change at any moment; here are some of the catalysts that I am eye'ing that may completely void that $77k target, push it back, or even be too low:

1) Last Friday of April 30th.. Usually there is a downtrend in Bitcoin a few days out up until the last Friday of the month passes. Although; it may be weak or just not even happen since March's last Friday was the end of the first Quarter as well. This is 50/50 so not too much of a signal.

2) Overbought levels on Daily and Weekly. I use various indicators like Stoch+RSI and when things start hanging too high in those overbought 70+ zones (including the weekly S&P); I start eye’ing exits as a possibility.

3) May 12th is the next CPI report to be released which essentially just says if inflation is rising or not. I think this can go two ways; and they both end up in a down turn. Inflation increases but doesn't spike over expectations = FED continues with no change and Bond folks start acting up. Or... Inflation goes way over expectations = Stirring up major worry that the FED may be seriously looking at pulling back.

4) NFTs. I think this is much like crypto-kitties back in 2017. Once that hype died; Bitcoin went flying to complete the last leg. NFT hype pretty much died. AND Bitcoin is pumping again.

5) BOND market.

6) Coinbase $COIN stock continues to do well in a gradual uptrend to finish out April and maybe into May. If so; then I remain bullish with Bitcoin. If it does bad or enters a super choppy range; then I may turn much more neutral or even bearish.

7) US Dollar DXY and when technicals point to a bounce of it's latest pullback.
 
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James Fake

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I do expect the S&P to do a MELT UP into the 5000. It will first need to consolidate a bit once we find a local top. Consolidation range could be from 4000 to 4300 for awhile and then the break up.

Once we hit 5000ish; I go full bear mode.

I think this all happens this year. I am eye'ing the activity to time with either the beginning or the end of the fiscal Quarters. Just not sure which ones quite yet until more fundamentals pop up.
 

mguerra

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Haha.. yeah, trying to juggle and launch a few things; I'm terrible at responding fast.

There are a few factors and signals and signs involved that I am actively looking for, but at the exact moment right now:

1) I am aiming at 21-24th of April. If not, possibly no later than til the end of May.

2) No big correction before the $77k target. I think it should be a fairly decent uptrend.

Of course; the above two can change at any moment; here are some of the catalysts that I am eye'ing that may completely void that $77k target, push it back, or even be too low:

1) Last Friday of April 30th.. Usually there is a downtrend in Bitcoin a few days out up until the last Friday of the month passes. Although; it may be weak or just not even happen since March's last Friday was the end of the first Quarter as well. This is 50/50 so not too much of a signal.

2) Overbought levels on Daily and Weekly. I use various indicators like Stoch+RSI and when things start hanging too high in those overbought 70+ zones (including the weekly S&P); I start eye’ing exits as a possibility.

3) May 12th is the next CPI report to be released which essentially just says if inflation is rising or not. I think this can go two ways; and they both end up in a down turn. Inflation increases but doesn't spike over expectations = FED continues with no change and Bond folks start acting up. Or... Inflation goes way over expectations = Stirring up major worry that the FED may be seriously looking at pulling back.

4) NFTs. I think this is much like crypto-kitties back in 2017. Once that hype died; Bitcoin went flying to complete the last leg. NFT hype pretty much died. AND Bitcoin is pumping again.

5) BOND market.

6) Coinbase $COIN stock continues to do well in a gradual uptrend to finish out April and maybe into May. If so; then I remain bullish with Bitcoin. If it does bad or enters a super choppy range; then I may turn much more neutral or even bearish.

7) US Dollar DXY and when technicals point to a bounce of it's latest pullback.

Thanks my man!

Ps: When I said "takes longer than expected" I was referring to the unfolding of your predictions, not the speed of your answers.

Anyways, thanks again for your insights - they are helping me a ton!
 

Matt Sun

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If Bitcoin is digital gold, Dogecoin is digital palladium.
Dogecoin is 208.6% up in the last 7 days.

The market seems very quite rational, sure.
 

MitchC

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Where do you think we are?

Everyone at work is buying shitcoins with no idea what they are doing. Some putting 50k in. We are truck drivers and digger operators, not even remotely involved with computers let alone crypto or investing. Only thing we all have in common is we are there because we want to make a lot of money for doing not much work which seems very related to investing in shitcoins.
 

Timmy C

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Where do you think we are?

Everyone at work is buying shitcoins with no idea what they are doing. Some putting 50k in. We are truck drivers and digger operators, not even remotely involved with computers let alone crypto or investing. Only thing we all have in common is we are there because we want to make a lot of money for doing not much work which seems very related to investing in shitcoins.
I'm my opinion, we are almost at stage 3.

Although large caps have moved, they have not gone parabolic.
 

Timmy C

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Where do you think we are?

Everyone at work is buying shitcoins with no idea what they are doing. Some putting 50k in. We are truck drivers and digger operators, not even remotely involved with computers let alone crypto or investing. Only thing we all have in common is we are there because we want to make a lot of money for doing not much work which seems very related to investing in shitcoins.

I can't imagine putting $50,000 into crypto and BTC being anything less than 70 - 80% of my stack...

Hope it works out for them...
 
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Frinys

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Where do you think we are?

Everyone at work is buying shitcoins with no idea what they are doing. Some putting 50k in. We are truck drivers and digger operators, not even remotely involved with computers let alone crypto or investing. Only thing we all have in common is we are there because we want to make a lot of money for doing not much work which seems very related to investing in shitcoins.
Be careful! :)

Many of you may very well have some great gains. But greed will kick in, you will fail to sell, and end up losing 75% of your investment.

People underestimate the bear market. It will hit altcoins hard, especially "promises of gold and glory"-altcoins that promise much and deliver little. Then, when your coworkers have lost 75% of their investment, they will stop investing in crypto until the next top arrives in 4-5 years.

I think it's much wiser to save those $50K right now, wait for the bear market, and then invest in solid projects when everyone else has stopped caring about crypto. Actually, this was my strategy after 2017/2018 and it has worked out extremely well.
 

Timmy C

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Be careful! :)

Many of you may very well have some great gains. But greed will kick in, you will fail to sell, and end up losing 75% of your investment.

People underestimate the bear market. It will hit altcoins hard, especially "promises of gold and glory"-altcoins that promise much and deliver little. Then, when your coworkers have lost 75% of their investment, they will stop investing in crypto until the next top arrives in 4-5 years.

I think it's much wiser to save those $50K right now, wait for the bear market, and then invest in solid projects when everyone else has stopped caring about crypto. Actually, this was my strategy after 2017/2018 and it has worked out extremely well.

Getting rekt by altcoins is sort of a crypto right of passage.
Let them shitcoin I say!
 

Timmy C

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Some perspective below for those of you that don't see the dangers of altcoins.
look at this chart below.. keep in mind this is ETH what I consider one of the few actual long-term investments of this asset class and it dropped?

crypto.PNG

Yeh, 95%.

Other shitcoins you are investing in dropped 99%. where are they today? still ain't at their peak and most won't make it back.

When people say you can lose EVERYTHING in altcoins, they mean it.

It's a risk curve.

The further you go down to the moon coins the greater potential for a complete loss.
 

Timmy C

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I god dam always underestimate the retards in crypto.
I need to up my degeneracy in this market for next bull run.

Dogecoin....
Ripple....

My God.
 

Frinys

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I god dam always underestimate the retards in crypto.
I need to up my degeneracy in this market for next bull run.

Dogecoin....
Ripple....

My God.
Today, I changed my investment strategy. I've traded my crypto for 50% USDT and 50% XMR. I'll save the USDT for the next bull run, and use the XMR on cocaine, ecstacy, and speed.

1. I'm gonna have a hell of a fun time until the next bull run.
2. The time will fly so I don't have to worry about the bear market.
3. I have a lot of USDT to use when the next bull run comes.
3. My brain is gonna be so fried after 4 years of daily drug abuse that I'll outperform every crypto retard out there.

It's a flawless strategy!

This is not advice — financial, investment, or otherwise. Nothing I write should be considered to be advice, research, or an invitation to buy or sell any securities or drugs.
 
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mguerra

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I think it's much wiser to save those $50K right now, wait for the bear market, and then invest in solid projects when everyone else has stopped caring about crypto. Actually, this was my strategy after 2017/2018 and it has worked out extremely well.

Million dollar advice here! Hat of the Wisest for you, my friend :clap::

That's how the REAL money is made.

Thanks for sharing here and reburning it into my brain. Now I'm sticking to my strategy and will start DCA at my target and do not let greed kick in.

That SOB was starting to show it's fangs...

:rofl:
 
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