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HOT TOPIC Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

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AceVentures

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So many mind-blowing considerations!

The transhumanist philosophy was really interesting to me - a concept I hadn't heard coined before.

What was most notable for me were the geopolitical implications of crypto - especially the ideas around India embracing this new technology.

They are in a position today to really disrupt things by dominating the remote-software economy, moving towards becoming a tech and media superpower.

They have access to 4G/LTE at a 10x cheaper cost than in the US, and they've in essence brought 400MM people online. They don't need an H1B visa and a shitty apartment in silicon valley anymore to contribute to high-profile software projects, they can drive innovation from anywhere in the world.

Great share!
 

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volodya

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Logan P

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Dont know much about it or how much it’s been discussed in this thread, but I’ve got some guys who work with me who’ve dumped a few thousand into “Hex” crypto over the last three weeks and have 4X’d their money. Might be worth looking at, might not be.
 

OverByte

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Guys, what would be the best exchange for me to buy BTC, ETH, and some other alt coins that coinbase doesn't offer?

I'm in Canada. I did sign up for kraken, would that be the best?
I like coinlist.co they had best fees for transferring money from canadian banks. I believe they are insured and trying to be SEC compliant for future ICOs. One of the founders in Naval Ravikant who I don't know personally, and perhaps it's dangerous to say but based on podcasts I've listened to he seems like someone who doesn't run sham operations.

I personally lost a few thousand dollars several years back in a fraud related to the Canadian exchange Quadriga (I went with them because they were Canadian), there is still a class action lawsuit pending against them, i doubt I'll see any of the money (the holdings were in crypto (BTC/ETH) and were purchased in 2016 so not sure what the initial investment would have been worth). The biggest burn was that that event of being defrauded kept me out of the crypto game till 2020. All that to say, I like Coinlist, they seem like they aren't going to defraud me. Note one giant red flag I should have been aware with Quadriga was that the wire transfer to fund was to some bank in a small eastern european country I had barely heard of. It seemed sketchy but no one was complaining and the reddit crowd said that was the best exchange. Everything seemed legit. Coinlist wire transfers by contrast go to a US bank in California. Anyway just wanted to give that perspective as this is the only time I was ever defrauded and crypto is a bit of the wild west.
 

Frinys

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Dont know much about it or how much it’s been discussed in this thread, but I’ve got some guys who work with me who’ve dumped a few thousand into “Hex” crypto over the last three weeks and have 4X’d their money. Might be worth looking at, might not be.

"I have not read this thread. I haven't searched through it either. Here is something I heard about that I don't know anything about. Go ahead, check it out!"

I know you're just trying to be helpful, but if you're going to shill a coin, at least provide some value doing so. If you know nothing about it, why even mention it?
 

Logan P

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"I have not read this thread. I haven't searched through it either. Here is something I heard about that I don't know anything about. Go ahead, check it out!"

I know you're just trying to be helpful, but if you're going to shill a coin, at least provide some value doing so. If you know nothing about it, why even mention it?
Seemed like it was made pretty clear that I had no interest in researching or investing it in myself and to leave it up to the user to do their own legwork. To each their own.
 

swerving2sucess

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If you look at the history of investment, for thousands of year it used to be precious resources or artifacts. Land, gold, famous painting and Ming Dynasty vase.

In the last 2-300 years it become possible to invest in other people’s business. The concept of shares ownership in private limited companies and gradually equity begins to play a greater role. Stocks were literally outperforming other assets on average for the last 200 years but only in the 60s and 70s there were theories built on stocks investing in the academia. Before that stocks are largely seen by public as gamblers betting in a casino. Warren Buffet wanted to be a stock broker in his 20s and all his family members including his teacher Ben Gram advised him no to. That could tell you how much respects stocks investing were getting.

The prevailing theories about stocks’ values and other securities are about the lifetime of cashflow you can get through investing in them. But today with QE and extreme low yield environment it is no longer easy to rely on yield to make an investment decision because “everything becomes overvalued” by the old benchmark.

Tesla could be priced more than the market cap of the several largest automobiles companies combined. I think we are moving towards a “consensus driven” market valuation. Social Media and retail money opinion matter a lot more than professional money in the past. A lot of institutional money are for the long haul and the daily directions are driven by retail money who gets their opinions in their face book groups, reddit and twitter. As we know that social media tend to reinforce an opinion than to challenge it, it creates its own strong momentum.

The same can be applied to bitcoin. The early days multimillionaires who made money from bitcoins are still hoarding a lot of the bitcoins. Greyscale is creating a system the coins held in custody cannot be dumped back into the market. Michael Saylor is buying and shouting to the whole world. The outside community looking at bitcoin is asking “what is the value of bitcoin?”. The insiders are thinking “How high can we push the price higher if we do our parts and work together. And God bless us that we should not have too many traitors selling out too early and smash the market.” It is a lot about marketing, community building and faith building these days. United and hold the price will shoot for the moon. Sabotaging each other to take early profit and be skeptical the project will fail. Game has changed.
This little synthesis you made about the history of investments is simply great. I think that cryptocurrencies are here to stay.
 

swerving2sucess

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I am liking this exchange, Kevin.

Let me throw another example at you. Back in 1999 and all the way till about 2002 there was this belief that the values were disconnected from earnings, that the "fundamentals" are no longer applicable because the market did not price "risk" as high anymore and the only way to participate was to take the lower yield. This was the Dot-com bubble. The common thread has been capital becoming cheap and chasing low yield indiscriminately, not pricing in the risk is a mistake.

I am all for viewing value in different ways and am investing my most precious of resources (my time) here as well as reading books on Crypto and Blockchain. My research and my gut tells me there is something profoundly important there. I am just too ignorant to be an investor, yet I hope to become one soon. And this is the key, I have no idea if Bitcoin is overpriced or underpriced. Maybe it should be worth $1M per coin or maybe it should be $10k. My own lack of opinion on Bitcoin's value is what bugs me and drives me to research.

I'll leave you with a quote from a great book:

“There have been numerous recent examples where loose capital markets contributed to booms that were followed by famous collapses: real estate in 1989–92; emerging markets in 1994–98; Long-Term Capital in 1998; the movie exhibition industry in 1999–2000; venture capital funds and telecommunications companies in 2000–01. In each case, lenders and investors provided too much cheap money and the result was over-expansion and dramatic losses.” (from "Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side" by Howard Marks)
Here's another example that no one is paying attention. What has happened with the US dollar in Venezuela.
 

srodrigo

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Bouncing off the bottom of this big rising wedge; once we hit the top line, it will break giving us a straight shot from mid $60k-70k to $100k in the blink of an eye (over a span of a few days, maybe a week)..
3 weeks later, I must be looking at the wrong charts.
 

Leo Hendrix

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Quick question for the group.

I'm interested in understanding the technicalities of ETH for building a DApp, soon in the future.

Any video series recommendations, etc? It's kind of a "Don't know where to start" scenario.
Check out Dapp University on YouTube, good channel with free code run throughs.

( He also offers bootcamp courses, I plan to take the blockchain developer one so I can learn for future projects etc.)

Also - cryptozombies.io seems popular.

Eat the blocks YouTube channel is another good dev channel that does demos and tutorials etc. on different applications.

This was posted last night in the Solidity Development Telegram group: https://github.com/bkrem/awesome-solidity
( Solidity Resources)
 
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monfii

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The real fastlane thing to do when it comes to crypto is not holding, it is mining.

Anyone got some legit resources on building mining rigs and mining?
 

Kevin88660

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The real fastlane thing to do when it comes to crypto is not holding, it is mining.

Anyone got some legit resources on building mining rigs and mining
Very capital intensive, hands on based and a lot of financial risk.

As competition increases mining revenue drops, even if coin price stays the same. There is little entry barrier stopping the next guy buying the asic to mine it. 2018 2nd half of the year was blood bath for miners.

If you have the capital to invest in mining, I rather look into “liquidity mining” in defi protocol. Take time to understand the security audits done on the projects and once verified that it is relatively safe you can stake your assets.
 
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Kevin88660

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Very capital intensive, hands on based and a lot of financial risk.

As competition increases mining revenue drops, even if coin price stays the same. There is little entry barrier stopping the next guy buying the asic to mine it. 2018 2nd half of the year was blood bath for miners.

If you have the capital to invest in mining, I rather look into “liquidity mining” in defi protocol. Take time to understand the security audits done on the projects and once verified that it is relatively safe you can stake your assets.
Speaking of this. Anyone knows resources where someone without computing science background can better understand and comprehend a security audit report? Those CertiK reports in particular. Thanks in advance.
 

Kevin88660

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Yield Farming > holding > mining

View attachment 37542
This me, humble Chad farmer enjoying consistent double digit yields.
Exactly. There are a lot of Cex supported new defi projects coming, (bsc and heco) chain giving insane rewards for their lp pool that contains their native token. Given that we are still in a bull market after a major correction for defi token prices, the risk reward is heavily favouring people who take the jump and participate in the program.

A 150 percent return yield on LP and additional 150 percent return on native token reward, means that to lose money holding it for a year the native token has to lose 80 percent of the value.

This does not even price in the fact that if the project has a good price to tvl ratio against top projects like sushi and uniswap, it has a major upside potential in capital appreciation in your native token.

It is like buying a call option that gives super high yield.

Binance and Huobi want to fight with the ethereum empire for the defi market share and they will do whatever it takes through stuffing money into the users’s pockets.
 

volodya

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Quick poll, what’s more likely A or B:

A) Bitcoin has a 70% chance of going up in value by year end and 30% of going down in value by year end.
B) Bitcoin has a 30% chance of going down in value by year end and 30% of going up in value by year end.

curious to see how people on this thread are thinking about the future.
 

Timmy C

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DOT has flipped resistance to support
ETH has flipped resistance to support
BTC is still at resistance.

I'll be selling 80% of my stack on this next move.
If it comes. Always the chance everyone gets taken by surprise.
 

Timmy C

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Vechain is a zero now.

Sacrifice decentralization for reduced fees now due to impatience = the same as banks in the future.

Yes, I hold a heap of this.
Hell no, I won't be keeping it.
 

EvanOkanagan

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DOT has flipped resistance to support
ETH has flipped resistance to support
BTC is still at resistance.

I'll be selling 80% of my stack on this next move.
If it comes. Always the chance everyone gets taken by surprise.
Does this mean you’re holding or selling your BTC?
 

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AceVentures

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Coinbase is about to IPO within the next couple of weeks.

They did more revenue in the first quarter of Q1 than in all of 2020 - $1.8B in Q1 alone. Of that, $700-800M was profit. Handled $330Billion in trading volume.

Assuming no growth, that's $8B/yr in revenue or ~ $4B/yr in profit. Listing valuation $100B, so that's roughly 25x profit ratio or 12x earnings.

Since posting this, which was not even a full week ago, multiple exchange tokens have taken flight with BNB (binance coin) being the most notable.

Since last week, BNB has gone up over 50%. At the current price of ~$580, it has a fully diluted market cap of ~$97B.

Interestingly, it is sitting today at the valuation many are thinking for the Coinbase IPO scheduled for 2 days from now, also ~$100B.

The kicker, however, is that Binance processes roughly 10x higher daily transaction volume than Coinbase.

Assuming Binance has the same profit/transaction ratio that Coinbase does (800m/330b = 0.2% profit per transaction volume) This would suggest that Binance is 10x undervalued compared to Coinbase at $100B.

Either Coinbase will be valued too high, which seems unlikely because their earnings per share at a $100B valuation would still be great compared to most growth stocks on the market, or BNB is highly undervalued at the moment.

This IPO event is really big - it allows people trading and investing in the traditional markets to put a valuation on crypto transactions and the earnings it comes with. These earnings are not limited to Coinbase since many other CEXs as well as DEXs process insane transaction volumes with yoy growth.

Could there be a mind-numbing face-melting pump coming soon?

Coinbase IPO will reveal a lot about how money might shift in Crypto --> IPO valuation of $100B could suggest room for Binance to climb 10x from here...

I'm trying to imagine what that would mean for Ethereum and the rest of the market, but my mind just melts when I try too hard.

Thoughts?
 

Kevin88660

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Since posting this, which was not even a full week ago, multiple exchange tokens have taken flight with BNB (binance coin) being the most notable.

Since last week, BNB has gone up over 50%. At the current price of ~$580, it has a fully diluted market cap of ~$97B.

Interestingly, it is sitting today at the valuation many are thinking for the Coinbase IPO scheduled for 2 days from now, also ~$100B.

The kicker, however, is that Binance processes roughly 10x higher daily transaction volume than Coinbase.

Assuming Binance has the same profit/transaction ratio that Coinbase does (800m/330b = 0.2% profit per transaction volume) This would suggest that Binance is 10x undervalued compared to Coinbase at $100B.

Either Coinbase will be valued too high, which seems unlikely because their earnings per share at a $100B valuation would still be great compared to most growth stocks on the market, or BNB is highly undervalued at the moment.

This IPO event is really big - it allows people trading and investing in the traditional markets to put a valuation on crypto transactions and the earnings it comes with. These earnings are not limited to Coinbase since many other CEXs as well as DEXs process insane transaction volumes with yoy growth.

Could there be a mind-numbing face-melting pump coming soon?

Coinbase IPO will reveal a lot about how money might shift in Crypto --> IPO valuation of $100B could suggest room for Binance to climb 10x from here...

I'm trying to imagine what that would mean for Ethereum and the rest of the market, but my mind just melts when I try too hard.

Thoughts?
I don’t think coinbase ipo will pump bnb price too much. Bnb is a utility token not a stock. And we dont see eth going to the sky yet even with insane nft valuation built on ethereum chain.

Much of the BnB price pump is driven by bcs defi projects which require you to buy bnb to join into the most lucrative lp pools. The high gas fee in ethereum network and the growing bsc ecosystem will continue to pump bnb price.
 

Leo Hendrix

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Since posting this, which was not even a full week ago, multiple exchange tokens have taken flight with BNB (binance coin) being the most notable.

Since last week, BNB has gone up over 50%. At the current price of ~$580, it has a fully diluted market cap of ~$97B.

Interestingly, it is sitting today at the valuation many are thinking for the Coinbase IPO scheduled for 2 days from now, also ~$100B.

The kicker, however, is that Binance processes roughly 10x higher daily transaction volume than Coinbase.

Assuming Binance has the same profit/transaction ratio that Coinbase does (800m/330b = 0.2% profit per transaction volume) This would suggest that Binance is 10x undervalued compared to Coinbase at $100B.

Either Coinbase will be valued too high, which seems unlikely because their earnings per share at a $100B valuation would still be great compared to most growth stocks on the market, or BNB is highly undervalued at the moment.

This IPO event is really big - it allows people trading and investing in the traditional markets to put a valuation on crypto transactions and the earnings it comes with. These earnings are not limited to Coinbase since many other CEXs as well as DEXs process insane transaction volumes with yoy growth.

Could there be a mind-numbing face-melting pump coming soon?

Coinbase IPO will reveal a lot about how money might shift in Crypto --> IPO valuation of $100B could suggest room for Binance to climb 10x from here...

I'm trying to imagine what that would mean for Ethereum and the rest of the market, but my mind just melts when I try too hard.

Thoughts?

How would traditional financial markets ie the Coinbase IPO affect Crypto Markets besides sentiment?

I'm not a professional market analyst but - common sense tells me that most investors in coinbase will be those who want a piece of the action without the risks.

The spill-over from new investors who can see or envision the expected growth of the cryptoasset class could lead to an increased market cap/lengthened bull cycle.
 
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Timmy C

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Oh sorry to hear that.
But that means you're still bullish on btc? And you're just selling because you need liquidity?
To be clear.
My original plan was to just sell of all altcoin positions entirely and leave bitcoin untouched.

I still might go with that plan. However I might sell some bitcoin.

I am not desperate for cash so that's why I am not 100% sure.

I have more than a years worth of expenses in a savings account right now so not sure why im stressed...
 
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Timmy C

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Oh sorry to hear that.
But that means you're still bullish on btc? And you're just selling because you need liquidity?
And yeah, bullish on Bitcoin in the short/medium term.

It's becoming a majority trade now and that usually signals the end being near however.
 

Kasimir

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And yeah, bullish on Bitcoin in the short/medium term.

It's becoming a majority trade now and that usually signals the end being near however.
Couldn't agree more!
Short/Medium and really really long term I'm bullish, but we'll see a big correction pretty soon.
 

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