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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

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This guy must be getting paid to shill stuff that will dump at this point, it's incredible how inaccurate he is.

View: https://x.com/Kalshi/status/1861130076915400761


View attachment 61009

Hilarious! But how TF did they come up with those odds? I'm really suspicious about the validity of that claim.

I still think it's likely to break 100k before getting a significant correction, even though I sold just before Cramer's endorsement.
 
Hilarious! But how TF did they come up with those odds? I'm really suspicious about the validity of that claim.
Not everything is a conspiracy mate, it's simply based on price action.
BTC was almost at $100K when those odds sat at 86%, obviously that went down when the price did, and also with Jimmy boys impeccable inverse abilities.
 
This is starting to feel like 2020 again with these 10% moves in either direction per day.

My plan is not advice, but here is what I am doing:

From what I have seen, alts generally rise significantly faster than BTC, and then FALL ON THEIR FACE in a span of about 3 days and then give up while BTC shows us the good stuff. I hold a lot of alts due to the fact that I mine them for heat and fun. I plan on selling 80% of my alts if they go parabolic, probably in chunks as it runs. If I miss the top I don't care, there is no way I am going to try and time this. I am just going to sell when things get crazy. I tried to hold in the last run and ended up just holding while it all crashed down 90%. RVN, VET, I watched the both shoot up to over $0.20 and then ended up selling (I had to, I didn't want to) when it was at $0.02. That was stupid of me. If I had been selling during the ride at like $0.10 up to $0.15 I would be so much better off, and who cares that I missed the big $0.28 numbers.

I will hold 20% or so of each alt no matter what. Who knows what the future holds, and keeping a small bit in my account is fine. Imagine if all the guys who sold their BTC when I smashed through $10 the first time had kept 20% of their stack in their wallet to never touch.

Long term plan is to cash out like 40% of my holdings into the almighty paper infinitely printable money, hopefully be able to turn it into some bricks and mortar down in Mexico for a straight swap. the other 40% I want to move into BTC when it crashes and everyone is losing their shit in 2025/2026, and hold that and pass it to my grandchildren when they are 30 (my kids at 4 and 6 at the moment lol). The other 20% or so I will keep in whatever retarded alt that I currently hold for giggles.

Through 2016-2022ish I minded a retarded amount of Ethereum (for me), but never held a stable job so ended up selling it all for living expenses while living in Mexico. This time around I am doing significantly better on the living side, so 100% of my crypto is essentially something I can play with if I want to. I will need to sell zero of it out of need. If I was in this position in the past I would have well over a million dollars in crypto right now. Instead I hold peanuts, but I was able to stay home with my kids while they were babies and travel all over Mexico for quite a while.

As far as the hardware front goes. As the temperatures drop I am turning computers on to provide heat and fun. They are currently essentially break even as far as coin generation value goes at the moment, but as per the strategy above, I am not selling now anyways, so I might as well get some heat out of the machines. If mining ever gets as lucrative as it did for the 2020 run, hardware is going to do a 2-3x from here. Selling that is cash sales. I am going to cash out close to 100% of my equipment, and hold a minimum of 50% of that cash to then buy back into equipment in 2026ish and get way newer stuff for rock-bottom-panic prices. I always want to keep some on hand to run as heaters. It is fun, and potentially very rewarding.

That is what I am going to be doing. I highly suggest that no one else follow this because I am pretty sure nothing is going to work out as planned.
 
This is starting to feel like 2020 again with these 10% moves in either direction per day.

My plan is not advice, but here is what I am doing:

From what I have seen, alts generally rise significantly faster than BTC, and then FALL ON THEIR FACE in a span of about 3 days and then give up while BTC shows us the good stuff. I hold a lot of alts due to the fact that I mine them for heat and fun. I plan on selling 80% of my alts if they go parabolic, probably in chunks as it runs. If I miss the top I don't care, there is no way I am going to try and time this. I am just going to sell when things get crazy. I tried to hold in the last run and ended up just holding while it all crashed down 90%. RVN, VET, I watched the both shoot up to over $0.20 and then ended up selling (I had to, I didn't want to) when it was at $0.02. That was stupid of me. If I had been selling during the ride at like $0.10 up to $0.15 I would be so much better off, and who cares that I missed the big $0.28 numbers.

I will hold 20% or so of each alt no matter what. Who knows what the future holds, and keeping a small bit in my account is fine. Imagine if all the guys who sold their BTC when I smashed through $10 the first time had kept 20% of their stack in their wallet to never touch.

Long term plan is to cash out like 40% of my holdings into the almighty paper infinitely printable money, hopefully be able to turn it into some bricks and mortar down in Mexico for a straight swap. the other 40% I want to move into BTC when it crashes and everyone is losing their shit in 2025/2026, and hold that and pass it to my grandchildren when they are 30 (my kids at 4 and 6 at the moment lol). The other 20% or so I will keep in whatever retarded alt that I currently hold for giggles.

Through 2016-2022ish I minded a retarded amount of Ethereum (for me), but never held a stable job so ended up selling it all for living expenses while living in Mexico. This time around I am doing significantly better on the living side, so 100% of my crypto is essentially something I can play with if I want to. I will need to sell zero of it out of need. If I was in this position in the past I would have well over a million dollars in crypto right now. Instead I hold peanuts, but I was able to stay home with my kids while they were babies and travel all over Mexico for quite a while.

As far as the hardware front goes. As the temperatures drop I am turning computers on to provide heat and fun. They are currently essentially break even as far as coin generation value goes at the moment, but as per the strategy above, I am not selling now anyways, so I might as well get some heat out of the machines. If mining ever gets as lucrative as it did for the 2020 run, hardware is going to do a 2-3x from here. Selling that is cash sales. I am going to cash out close to 100% of my equipment, and hold a minimum of 50% of that cash to then buy back into equipment in 2026ish and get way newer stuff for rock-bottom-panic prices. I always want to keep some on hand to run as heaters. It is fun, and potentially very rewarding.

That is what I am going to be doing. I highly suggest that no one else follow this because I am pretty sure nothing is going to work out as planned.
The next narrative is potentially sovereign money getting into bitcoin.

If dedollarisation on trend, big powers will have lots of gold. Smaller countries who don’t have the money to buy lots of expensive gold will need to find some alternatives.

Bitcoin maximalism is long term correct. Alts on average performed poorly across market cycles, unless the speculator is a genius trader who can pin point the exact niche and exact coin early in the circle.
 
Not everything is a conspiracy mate, it's simply based on price action.
BTC was almost at $100K when those odds sat at 86%, obviously that went down when the price did, and also with Jimmy boys impeccable inverse abilities.

Not a conspiracy, just bad statistics. 87.431% of social-media-stated probabilities aren't scientifically justified and are simply scientific hand-waving to sound authoritative, much like a TV-ad actor in a lab coat.

People don't pay nearly enough attention to the underlying assumptions used in statistical modeling, which is where it's validity comes from. Presumably, this was just the standard trading-platform tool that assumes normal distribution, using current price for the mean and derives standard variation from volatility and the stated time frame.

Is that a valid model? Long term it always assumes 0 direction, where price is just as likely to double as half. If you believed that model to be "true" you'd have 0 reason to ever buy or sell.

That doesn't mean it can't provide useful information. It's particularly useful for identifying miss-priced short-term derivatives.
 
So, how much of the pool of Crypto is left out of the 21million that was created back in 2008?

 
I'm convinced more than ever now that Mr. Tycoon is an early-version 2000's troll bot with the IQ of a sandwich.
Are you the same fool whose ex-girlfriend stole $1.5 million from him?

Hahaha
 
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For those of you who live under a rock but check this thread, a historic moment just occurred

BTC just crossed over $100k marker.

Congrats to all BTC believers and HODLers.

View attachment 61371
It didn't just cross over it, it absolutely smashed through it.
 
Just sold a bunch of BTC ETF shares that were in my tax-free account (Canadian TFSA). Basically recouped my initial investment with about 45% of shares sold, now the extra 55% is all tax-free profit.

Not intentional though.. I thought I cancelled my limit order that was around the 100k btc price. May have regrets :happy:
 
The USD has fallen to a record-low value, below 0.00001 BTC, or 1000 satoshis per USD. We lived to see the day.

Not something I would have imagined back when I first heard of bitcoin, in summer of 2011. Or when I first bought some, in 2015. It was seen as a joke back then, and it is still somewhat of a joke, but now more mainstream.

Imagine the day when crypto is seen as serious, and all fiat currencies become ridiculed. It may happen, but governments will try to prevent this shift through manipulation and other means.

Fiat currencies falling in value versus everything else, is pretty much built into the monetary system. It's why it's important to have wealth in all asset classes. Makes you anti-fragile to financial shocks.
 
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For those of you who live under a rock but check this thread, a historic moment just occurred

BTC just crossed over $100k marker.

Congrats to all BTC believers and HODLers.

View attachment 61371

This run isn't quite over, but significant corrections are likely. Nothing moves in a straight line forever. I'm watching for a local top another 10k higher, then down to the neighborhood of 75k where I'll get back in for a swing trade targeting 135k, followed by an even bigger correction. After that I plan to buy and hold for a long time.

I'm very bullish on BTC long term, but knowing your timeframe is important. That's why I sold recently.
 
IMG_2700.webp

This is about toilet rolls right?
 
Even for large networks like ETH which I still use and find valuable, I learned that with ZK cryptography you could essentially nest multiple layers down until the cost of a transactions reaches ~0 while preserving maximal levels of security, though you would sacrifice liveliness across other applications.

Meaning the business model of selling block-space on smart-contract platforms is a race to the bottom.

In 2021 I falsely believed that block space on smart contract platforms would become a valuable commodity.

That was my thesis for supporting Lukso at the time.

This was before the L1 wars and the L2/rollup cycle.

After the dust settled it became clear that block-space isn't as valuable and not a reliable indicator of revenue.

Example:

1733551249811.webp

That's why I believe looking at crypto assets from a memetic standpoint is the most pragmatic.

The value is more about the network of people who believe in the same idea.

And less in some killer utility.
 

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