Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[mguerra]

This is what concerns me with trading. The trend is everyone thinks this will happen. If that's the case, it might do the opposite.

Trading is such a low ROI and ROTI activity, in my view. You are far better of buying, DCA, and holding than worrying about this.

You might be a great trader and the exception, but in my view, you are always better off buying and DCA into BTC over the long term and will vastly outperform traders with that strategy.

True.

The margin for error in trading crypto is so big that, when you add the emotional roller coaster of stress, it really doesn't pay off.

Better chill in BTC/ETH and just watch the rest go crazy.

 

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[James Fake]

Trading is such a low ROI and ROTI activity, in my view. You are far better of buying, DCA, and holding than worrying about this.

The margin for error in trading crypto is so big that, when you add the emotional roller coaster of stress, it really doesn't pay off.

Agreed 100%. Long term buying/holder will def perform much much better.

In my particular case; I do a mix of big swing and position trades. So I'll ride until I feel like a big run cycle is about to end and I'll pull it into fiat and wait and wait and wait to buy back in lower. Usually; I am only active in crypto when it's time for me to enter... I put alot of emphasis on getting a good entry so it will take me many, many failed tries until I feel really good about one and then I'll sit with diamond hands. (example: I was really active in this thread when Bitcoin was around the $10k range vs. a lot less as active when we actually hit All Time Highs recently)

I however, do watch the market every day to make sure it's going in the general trend and there is not game-ending or game-changing news.

In a full blown bull market like the one I think we have coming up; it's time to EAT. So in my eyes; if you have the discipline down of being able to sit (being trapped) until price comes back, not chase, etc.. there is a lot of opportunity cost by not playing the bull market since the house odds are in your favor. However, that's where the trick is too; if you don't have that discipline (which is quite hard to master) then you can actually lose in a bull market so buying/holding long term as suggested is still going to beat out 99% of people lol.

 

[Timmy C]

I have gone:

50% BTC
30% ETH

20% in other shitcoins.

HODLING.

 

[Barracuda]

To ripple or not to ripple?

 

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[mguerra]

In a full blown bull market like the one I think we have coming up; it's time to EAT. So in my eyes; if you have the discipline down of being able to sit (being trapped) until price comes back, not chase, etc.. there is a lot of opportunity cost by not playing the bull market since the house odds are in your favor. However, that's where the trick is too; if you don't have that discipline (which is quite hard to master) then you can actually lose in a bull market so buying/holding long term as suggested is still going to beat out 99% of people lol.

Could you elaborate a bit more on this discipline?

What do you mean by 'being trapped'?
What do you mean by 'not chase'?
How does one develop this kind of discipline?

I'll really appreciate this answer.

Thanks in advance!

PS: as a form of context, I got F*cked by this XRP massive sellout and I'm holding a bag right now. It made me rethink all of the "swing trades" I was doing. I entered at ~0.40 and I don't know how many months it'll take for the price to recover - that's it, if it will.

One thing is for sure: I've learned a lot about myself, market psychology and how strongly the greed instincts affects us human beings. Really powerful...

It was a painful lesson, but now I'm much more aware of this kind of patterns and much more educated in the size of the targets I set and when to realize profits. That being said, I still think XRP can (hopefully) get back to 0.50 range and I move back to BTC without a loss.

 

[Raja]

Funny thing, I use to mine and complete survey for bitcoin in 2014. I was in grade 9 or 10.

Only if i remember my btc wallet.

 

[James Fake]

Class act by Bitstamp to drop "bad" news on Christmas.. I don't even know anybody that uses Bitstamp lol. But anywho.. got to be like water and adjust to the environment (cup).

Exiting on this small bounce to $.32ish, then re-buying in much lower. It should be the final leg of this Fud sell off.. But it is indeed the final one, so it's like boss level panic.. should get pretty fearful and fuddy on XRP for the next 24-36 hours. I plan on making my full entry (for this bull run position) at the height of this upcoming fear. (could get as low as $.13)

 

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[csalvato]

25k, congrats all

 

[Timmy C]

ETH is poised for a major breakout.

It's still 50% from its ATH.

If I was a ripple holder I would sell everything FYI.

 

[James Fake]

Update: This prediction failed and invalidated as soon as Bitcoin popped through $25,000 the following morning. Reverting back to the original two predictions on Dec 23, 2020 here: HOT TOPIC - Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)



Okay.. I am about to do a full 180* contrarian move here...

After doing a bunch of analyzing, observing trader's sentiment & emotions in various places..

I've come to the conclusion that we are very close or at the top here at this $24,800 - $24,900 area before a 25%+ selloff pullback within (and over) the next few days.

Disregard the previous prediction ideas as I will be playing this one until invalidated.

 

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[Timmy C]

View attachment 36114

Okay.. I am about to do a full 180* contrarian move here...

After doing a bunch of analyzing, observing trader's sentiment & emotions in various places..

I've come to the conclusion that we are very close or at the top here at this $24,800 - $24,900 area before a 25%+ selloff pullback within (and over) the next few days.

Disregard the previous prediction ideas as I will be playing this one until invalidated.

It's probably healthy to see a pullback.

BTC has been on quite a tear.

 

[Timmy C]

BTC breaks $25,000

 

[James Fake]

Sorry guys.. that last prediction I posted late last night was a total dud. Failed and invalidated as soon as Bitcoin popped.

Back to the original two plans for me! I should have never veered away smh..

HOT! - CRYPTO - Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

Is there any news about the integration between PayPal and Cryptos?. In Argentina we need something like that now, is a massacre what happened when you want to import your hard-earned dollars. Note that with PayPal, you do not actually own your own crypto. Only an IOU version of it.

www.thefastlaneforum.com

 

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[csalvato]

Sorry guys.. that last prediction I posted late last night was a total dud. Failed and invalidated as soon as Bitcoin popped.

Back to the original two plans for me! I should have never veered away smh..

HOT! - CRYPTO - Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

Is there any news about the integration between PayPal and Cryptos?. In Argentina we need something like that now, is a massacre what happened when you want to import your hard-earned dollars. Note that with PayPal, you do not actually own your own crypto. Only an IOU version of it.

www.thefastlaneforum.com

I am questioning my prediction on a 17k pull back. I feel like it's a 50/50 shot right now of a 17k pullback or a mooning to 30-35k and consolidating before the even bigger multi-month (multi-year?) bull run

 

[Timmy C]

Bitcoin smashes past 26k.

 

[Timmy C]

Make that $27,000.

Be careful everyone.

 

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[James Fake]

RUN FOR THE HILLS ON XRP..

@csalvato You're were and are right about XRP. Delisting soon on Coinbase official: https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-will-suspend-trading-in-xrp-on-january-19-2e09652dbf57

 

[csalvato]

RUN FOR THE HILLS ON XRP..

@csalvato You're were and are right about XRP. Delisting soon on Coinbase official: https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-will-suspend-trading-in-xrp-on-january-19-2e09652dbf57

If you still want to bet on XRP, you could bet that they win the lawsuit and will be relisted on Coinbase. That will cause a massive pump.

But the likelihood of that is near 0, IMO, because XRP will be ruled to be a security, I think. It has all the attributes of a security, and no one uses it as a currency at all.

 

[Timmy C]

XRP needs to get booted anyway. Can you imagine how depressing it would be running it.

Hey guys, we signed another bank today.

Like, what are you even changing? XRP is almost as worst as the ultimate shit coin, the USD.

 

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[Timmy C]

Ensure you all have everything backed up and written instructions for your families on how to recover any funds in the unfortunate event that you die.

There could be a lot of money, and they don't have access to them because you didn't bother putting plans in place.

 

[MTF]

A question for crypto experts: every crypto fan says "not your keys, not your crypto." So buying crypto through Coinbase doesn't help accomplish the goals of what crypto is about. But at the same time, storing it yourself is very risky, too, and people lose a lot of their coins this way.

Does it even make sense to hold crypto through Coinbase or should it only be kept on a crypto wallet? What should a person terrified by the complexity of this world (and consequently, likely to do something wrong when storing the crypto themselves which seems to be super easy) do?

 

[Timmy C]

A question for crypto experts: every crypto fan says "not your keys, not your crypto." So buying crypto through Coinbase doesn't help accomplish the goals of what crypto is about. But at the same time, storing it yourself is very risky, too, and people lose a lot of their coins this way.

Does it even make sense to hold crypto through Coinbase or should it only be kept on a crypto wallet? What should a person terrified by the complexity of this world (and consequently, likely to do something wrong when storing the crypto themselves which seems to be super easy) do?

I would encourage anyone looking to get into crypto to buy tiny amounts first and read up thoroughly on how to store them correctly. In crypto, you are your own worst enemy.

This is what I do.

I have a seed plate bitcoin metal backup and have indented my seeds into the metal except for 2 words that I have memorized in my head.

I also have a copy elsewhere that is kept in a safe with all of my relevant documents in it.
(That's in a bank.)

TEST EVERYTHING BEFORE SENDING LARGE AMOUNTS TO YOUR COLD WALLET.

Cold storage always except for what I plan on trading or selling on an exchange.

If you are going to leave it on an exchange, I will use Gemini.

The Winklevoss reputation is tied to the exchange; they are both public figures and have a lot to lose.

They have been doing it for much longer than you, and the security at their exchange is probably better than what you could do yourself.

Not your keys, not yours? Yeh, I guess, but they have much more to lose by taking the bitcoin.

They have less to gain by taking them.

I am not encouraging you to leave them on an exchange, but it would be Gemini if I had to choose one.

 

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[c4n]

I would encourage anyone looking to get into crypto to buy tiny amounts first and read up thoroughly on how to store them correctly. In crypto, you are your own worst enemy.

Sounds to me we are still far from crypto being suitable for mass adoption.

Until my parents and the "average Joe" can handle crypto without fear of loosing everything and without their head exploding of having to read and understand all the details, we won't see it happen. This space is like the Internet in the 90s.

 

[MTF]

Until my parents and the "average Joe" can handle crypto without fear of loosing everything and without their head exploding of having to read and understand all the details, we won't see it happen. This space is like the Internet in the 90s.

The problem is that it's the nature of crypto; that's one of the reasons it's valuable to people. So I'm not sure if there can be any realistic solution for that. Exchanges pose big risk. Being your own bank does, too.

I don't consider myself an investment/technology genius but I'm not ignorant, either. And after learning about crypto, I think it's way, way, way, too complicated for a regular person to use unless they don't bother with learning what it is and simply go through the exchange (which poses risks and is, in a way, anti-crypto).

But I guess this is why it's so speculative.

 

[Timmy C]

Sounds to me we are still far from crypto being suitable for mass adoption.

Until my parents and the "average Joe" can handle crypto without fear of loosing everything and without their head exploding of having to read and understand all the details, we won't see it happen. This space is like the Internet in the 90s.

I agree with everything you just said.

 

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[Timmy C]

My dad wanted crypto, and I had to be the one to back up everything of his.

He had no clue, and he doesn't care. He just plans on holding it for a few years.

 

[csalvato]

A question for crypto experts: every crypto fan says "not your keys, not your crypto." So buying crypto through Coinbase doesn't help accomplish the goals of what crypto is about. But at the same time, storing it yourself is very risky, too, and people lose a lot of their coins this way.

Does it even make sense to hold crypto through Coinbase or should it only be kept on a crypto wallet? What should a person terrified by the complexity of this world (and consequently, likely to do something wrong when storing the crypto themselves which seems to be super easy) do?

yes you have responsibility for your coins.

Yes, coinbase or other centralized exchanges aren’t safe to store your coins.

yes, in the immature days of BTC it was very easy to lose your keys.

no, that’s not the case at all anymore today.

just read this and follow it’s steps and you’ll be fine:

Bitcoin Security Guide - A simple and secure setup for your Bitcoin Self Custody

Step-by-step guide for securing your Bitcoin effectively. Keep it simple and don't screw yourself out of your coins.

bitcoinsecurity.guide

 

[Timmy C]

Yes, you have responsibility for your coins.

Myra coinbase or other centralized exchanges aren’t safe to store your coins.

yes, in the immature days of BTC it was very easy to lose your keys.

no, that’s not the case at all anymore today.

just read this and follow it’s steps and you’ll be fine:

Bitcoin Security Guide - A simple and secure setup for your Bitcoin Self Custody

Step-by-step guide for securing your Bitcoin effectively. Keep it simple and don't screw yourself out of your coins.

bitcoinsecurity.guide

Yes it's gotten much better.

But we are still a fair way away from adoption.

Which is good for us greedy scoundrels.

Obviously it's risky, everyone in crypto knows that.

 

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[csalvato]

Sounds to me we are still far from crypto being suitable for mass adoption.

Until my parents and the "average Joe" can handle crypto without fear of loosing everything and without their head exploding of having to read and understand all the details, we won't see it happen. This space is like the Internet in the 90s.

I know 65 year olds buying BTC on coinbase and moving it to hardware wallets.

This isn’t as far off as you think. In many ways we are there now.

literally, grandmas are less scared of crypto than entrepreneurs on this forum now.

 

[MTF]

just read this and follow it’s steps and you’ll be fine:

The instructions alone with all the links are crazily complex, let alone doing it. As it is now, I don't think that crypto is for those who aren't technically-inclined.

From one of the instructions from this site:

The file we create is a standard 7z archive with AES-256 encryption, in CBC mode. The 256-bit key is a SHA256 hash of a passphrase, hashed in a particular way to support 7z compatibility. We know the passphrase has at least 128-bits of entropy because the Coldcard uses it's true random number generator (TRNG) to pick it.

It's so ridiculously written that I can only laugh. And that's just ONE step of the crazily complicated process. There's no "just read this and follow its steps" if you have no idea what they're talking about.

Hardcore crypto believers all seem to think that it's simple. But that's because of how many hours they spent learning it. It's not simple at all for a regular person who doesn't want to spend their life trying to understand it and worrying that they took a wrong step. It's like a rocket scientist saying: "just follow these steps and you'll go straight to the moon."

Just to be clear, it's just my opinion as someone on the sidelines. I briefly considered investing in crypto, spending some time trying to learn it. I concluded I'd rather stick to stuff that's been around for hundreds of years. But I'm a conservative investor who prefers cashflowing investments.

I don't care if someone invests their entire life savings into it or not. Just pointing out a huge weakness most crypto investors overlook because of the huge curse of knowledge bias.