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Future predictions.

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  1. steelandchrome
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    steelandchrome Bronze Contributor Read The Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    Not mine, but an interesting read my wife sent me just now... As the world changes business either adapts or dies.

    FUTURE PREDICTIONS:
    In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people don't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again? Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.

    Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
    Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

    Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. By 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

    Autonomous Cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.

    Most car companies may become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.

    Insurance Companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

    Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

    Electric cars won’t become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.

    With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

    Health: There will be companies that will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breathe into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.

    3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large number of spare parts they used to have in the past.

    At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

    Business Opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.

    Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

    Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Agroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow-produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups that will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

    There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.

    Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.

    Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.

    Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.



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  2. AgainstAllOdds
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    I was 100% in agreement until this. No way bitcoin becomes the norm anytime soon.
     
  3. AlphaWulf
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    This is eye opening, scary, and amazing. All at the same time.


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  4. MidwestLandlord
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    MidwestLandlord Platinum Contributor Read The Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    Also, most gas stations will go bankrupt as self-driving cars will initially use a fleet style fueling center (much like government does now) before they go fully electric.

    Plus any business related to car care. Accessories, car repair, rentals, airport parking services, snow plowing, etc...
     
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    I hate the thought of self driving cars. There are too many people who simply enjoy driving to become mainstream right away. Not to mention the majority of the population will not able to or willing to afford the technology until it becomes significantly cheaper. I don't see that happening as soon as 2020 as that is less than 2.5 model years away in most cases.
    It will undoubtly happen but I think 10-15 years is a more realistic timeframe before self driving cars are mainstream. Things don't happen that quickly in the auto industry.
     
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    I don't believe even half of the predictions in the sense that they are too optimistic for such near future. Perhaps in 1st world countries like US, Canada, and EU. But not the rest of the world.

    What happens to the average worker if most jobs are going to be replaced? Utopia? Yeah right...

    *Cough* human greed....
     
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  7. MidwestLandlord
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    I hate the thought too.

    But, I was sitting in an Uber on the 101 in LA the other day, traffic was terrible. Slow. Frustrating. Bleh.

    Self-driving cars would virtually eliminate that. I think once the tech is there 100%, and the governments get out of the way, self-driving cars will catch on like wild fire. I don't think anyone would own one either, I think there will just be tons of them driving themselves around much like taxi's in NYC, and you "flag one down" with an app on your phone.

    5 minutes before you need to leave for work, you punch it into your app and one pulls up in front of your house. That type of thing. Retailers will have drop off points out front, like hotels do now. Need to go to Walgreens? Request a car from your house, it takes you to Walgreen's, drops you off at the front door. Leaving Walgreen's you just punch it into the app again, and tell the car to take you home. No waits, no traffic, pay as you go like Uber.

    Stop lights would be non-existent. A self driving car would just need a "roundabout" at intersections, no stopping required.

    No school buses. Kids would take a car. App could tell parents that their kid was dropped off safely.

    No public buses.

    No high speed chases for the coppers.

    Yeah, it's gonna be BIG.
     
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  8. MidwestLandlord
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    Imagine how this will change distribution too.

    Amazon using drones? Maybe. But how about Amazon just loading up a self-driving car that has multiple deliveries to one town? Just drops the package at your front door. Multiple stops like a mail carrier.

    How about drive-through fast food?

    Car washes?

    Over-the-road trucking?

    Rail service?

    Concrete and black top suppliers? (more efficient = less roads)

    Emergency services?

    Government expenses and taxes? (less roads to build, less licenses to issue, etc)

    Architects and engineers? (no parking lots, no parking garages, etc)

    How many different industries will actually be changed by this?

    It's fun to think about. Lot's of changes in the 1st world countries over the next generation for sure.
     
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  9. AlphaWulf
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    I think 2020 is a very realistic figure. It's safe to say that Tesla is leading the pack here and their Model 3 is launching for less that 30k with full self driving capabilities.

    Tesla is a luxury car brand. Imagine what Toyota or Honda can do at a much lower price point.

    Also, once insurances catch up with self-driving cars, people will realize all the savings they're getting. (Most self-driving cars will be electric) Less $ for gas, insurance, maintenance, government refunds (for buying electric cars).

    I don't think that every car on the road will be self driving by 2020. I do think that it will be mainstream in the sense that it won't be "HOLY SHIT WOW IT DRIVES ITSELF" but "Nice, you got the self-driving model"


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  10. TTG SS
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    Fair enough. I wonder how the self driving cars will interact with driver operated cars?Obviously people aren't just going to stop driving all at once, so it's fair to say that these cars will be interacting with driver operated cars for many years to come.

    The better question is what will performance car companies do? Too many people have absolute burning desire to drive high performance cars. Myself included. Maybe I'll just have to build myself a racetrack to play on :)
     
  11. steelandchrome
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    steelandchrome Bronze Contributor Read The Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    Fully agreed. A few of the predictions were off in my eyes this one included but didn't want to edit anything out.

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  12. steelandchrome
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    My thoughts exactly. Won't be full takeover that fast but will be growing leaps and bounds and being a normal thing to see these self driving cars. Uber already has bought a fleet of self driving cars and will be testing out how it works without human interaction this year. Also in Europe they have had self driving semi trucks for deliveries for almost 2 years and they have only had two accidents I believe and most people didn't even know they were running that test. Cuts down driver fatigue, limited road time hours before mandatory stopping etc... I don't think regular cars will go away but will fade to a smaller percentage of cars on the road in the city etc... rural and suburban areas I think will be the opposite with more regular cars and less Uber style just due to demand and wait times you would expect. Also agree high end sports cars, off road, and classic cars will stay on the road for the enthusiasts who want the experience of driving for fun and not just the point a-b driving.

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  13. steelandchrome
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    I'm surprised Noone has quoted this portion below.... This is what I found most interesting as I work through business ideas right now as far as sustainable business models.

    Business Opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.



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  14. TrueCreator97
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    @steelandchrome Really appreciate you taking time to post this! We would all do well to put ourselves in positions to capitalize on these future trends!
     
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    I live on a farm, grew up here. I don't see the $100 agriculture robot happening. Maybe for a small garden or something similar but not for a farm over 10 acres if not less.
     
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    Admin Post
    Not sure about "not wanting to own a car" because automobiles symbolize much more than the pragmatic "take me to A from B" -- for most people, it is a fashion statement, a calling card, and an expression of self. For others, driving is fun. There are far more barriers here than just supplanting "transportation from A to B". I think 2020 is being too optimistic.
     
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    Example: People still wear expensive analog watches.
     
  18. MidwestLandlord
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    MidwestLandlord Platinum Contributor Read The Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    To play devil's advocate:

    Millennials and car ownership? It's complicated

    "Many also are alarmed by a trend occurring among the youngest millennials: Only about 60% of today’s 18-year-olds have a driver’s license, compared with 80% in the 1980s, according to a study from the University of Michigan. "

    http://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/millennials-lead-mobility-service-shift/

    "Millenials also said that when going out for an evening with friends, they use ridesharing services 70 percent of the time. ReportLinker stated one factor in millennials’ ridesharing use is that fewer have their own cars. The survey found that while 91 percent of older generations are car owners, only 78 percent of millennials have their own wheels."
     
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    Devil musta forgot millennials are fuckin broke. Minute they get a job they go get status symbols like everybody else. Example: parking lot outside my window.
     
  20. MidwestLandlord
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    The LA times I linked above does cover that. They buy cars when they have money, but they buy cheaper cars, and less cars total in their lifetime.
     
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    "Facts" "Evidence".... these are just words. I'm pretty confident reality bears out my bias. Stop arguing, heathen.
     
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    That won't change. Hell, in 50 years the IRS will still be using fax machines. I think that's as political as I can be on the forum.
     
  23. Runum
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    The issue with self driving cars is the quality of the roads. the technology that exists now relies on the striping and distinct markers on the road to keep the lane. If the striping is substandard or the road is wet/snowy the vehicle cannot stay on track. In the rural areas there are no markings on many of the roads.

    I do not see the roads around me improving any time soon due to county budgets and manpower. Part of living a rural life.

    Also, the OP needs to give credit for the original article. Looks like it came from here.
    Predictions in Technology and Health
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2017
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  24. steelandchrome
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    That's the article, sorry if it got cut off my copy and paste of the article. Thanks for putting it up. ;)


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    The fascinating thing about Bitcoin isn't Bitcoin, but the underlying technology called "blockchain".

    I'm not really sure why people debate it as if it's a company, when it's basically a price tracker of the underlying technology, and as more and more people use it, the more ubiquitous it will become.

    Imagine if in the early internet days, there was a currency called "WebCoin", where people can trade these coins over a fascinating IT network and send these coin files around the world in seconds over 28k or whatever. Sounds amazing, so price goes up. First website gets hacked, it tanks, etc. Think of how silly it would sound if people fought over Webcoin being a ponzi scheme, the price will go to $0, etc. all while ignoring THE FUCKING INTERNET underneath it all.

    Or how about if there was a coin called "AutonomousCoin", as self-driving technology hype goes up, price goes up, then first Tesla crashes or battery explodes, price tanks, all while fools debate whether AutonomousCoin is a scam or not.

    Eventually, everyone will use "bitcoin" (blockchain) without really knowing it, since most major banks are quietly building on the technology while Joe Blow argues about the price. Hell, Chase recently open-sourced a permissioned blockchain they were working on called Quorum, based on the Ethereum blockchain, a Bitcoin "competitor".