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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

D

Deleted70138

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I didn't tell you how much I had just that I would trade all of my BTC now to collect 10 BTC 10 years later.

I have got nowhere near 10 BTC.
Ok, let me ask you differently:
If you had only 1 BTC, how much would you like to receive in 10 years in order to be willing to give it up?
 
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Timmy C

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Ok, let me ask you differently:
If you had only 1 BTC, how much would you like to receive in 10 years in order to be willing to give it up?

I wouldn't sell it for anything.

I would only sell it for hard assets like property, and even then, I would NEVER sell all of it.
 
D

Deleted70138

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I wouldn't sell it for anything.

I would only sell it for hard assets like property, and even then, I would NEVER sell all of it.
Instead of selling bitcoin, I would call it buying USD, real estate or etc.
how about bread? would you buy bread when hungry? How much would you pay if I could deliver freshly baked sesame & sunflower bread right now?
 

Timmy C

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Instead of selling bitcoin, I would call it buying USD, real estate or etc.
how about bread? would you buy bread when hungry? How much would you pay if I could deliver freshly baked sesame & sunflower bread right now?
62,064 Sats at today's price.
 
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Timmy C

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Instead of selling bitcoin, I would call it buying USD, real estate or etc.
how about bread? would you buy bread when hungry? How much would you pay if I could deliver freshly baked sesame & sunflower bread right now?

If you think for one second I would sell my BTC for garbage such as the USD your outta your mind btw lol.
 
D

Deleted70138

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62,064 Sats at today's price.
why would you calculate according to BTC/USD? That's what I don't understand about crypto community.

Would you be willing to buy bread for the next 1 year for 10,000 satoshi once in a week? No matter what BTC/USD is.
 

Bekit

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Would you be willing to buy bread for the next 1 year for 10,000 satoshi once in a week? No matter what BTC/USD is
That's like asking a property owner, "would you be willing to sell a little bit of your land for bread? Just 1/16 of an acre. How much bread would you need in exchange for a small parcel of land?"

It doesn't make any sense.

The bread is consumable.

The land is enduring and will go up in value.

If I was starving, I would look for any other option possible to earn income for bread before resorting to selling land.

Same with Bitcoin.
 
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Deleted70138

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That's like asking a property owner, "would you be willing to sell a little bit of your land for bread? Just 1/16 of an acre. How much bread would you need in exchange for a small parcel of land?"

It doesn't make any sense.

The bread is consumable.

The land is enduring and will go up in value.

If I was starving, I would look for any other option possible to earn income for bread before resorting to selling land.

Same with Bitcoin.
But land can generate cash-flow by planting corn and still have same amount of land after decades, but with bitcoin you can't do anything like that.
The main reason why i'm playing devil's advocate here is that I'm interested in BTC as the most efficient medium of exchange instead of speculative machine.
 

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Why would they do it? Do they lend out themselves on higher rate?
This is a ridiculously lazy question. Can't you use Google?


What Does BlockFi Do with Account Assets?​

BlockFi generates interest on assets held in Interest Accounts by lending them to trusted institutional and corporate borrowers. To ensure loan performance, BlockFi typically lends crypto on overcollateralized terms (similar to the structure of our crypto-backed loans). Furthermore, BlockFi’s automated risk management system monitors positions 24/7, leveraging the same trusted risk management system used with BlockFi’s crypto-backed loans. BlockFi has the ability to terminate a borrow in a timely fashion and also manages reserve balances to facilitate client withdrawals from Interest Accounts.

BlockFi client funds are structured to be at the top of the capital stack, senior to BlockFi equity and BlockFi employee capital. This means BlockFi’s business and client incentives are aligned and BlockFi would take a loss before any client would. BlockFi implements very thoughtful risk management practices and technology to mitigate the risk, but you should not view the BlockFi Interest Account as a savings account or brokerage account with FDIC or SIPC insurance.


The more time I spend on this forum reading about and discussing crypto, the more I realize that it's a wasted effort. People don't want to do any research or learn. They just want to shit on people who are actually informed, for one reason or another.
 
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Deleted70138

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This is a ridiculously lazy question. Can't you use Google?





The more time I spend on this forum reading about and discussing crypto, the more I realize that it's a wasted effort. People don't want to do any research or learn. They just want to shit on people who are actually informed, for one reason or another.
Thanks for link. Read it as meticulously as I could, but if you are not too annoyed by my curiosity, who are "Trusted institutional and corporate borrowers" and why would they borrow? Is not it unsafe to trust your coins to other parties? 6% just seems too high for me, maybe suitable for Russian government bonds in 90s.
 

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Thanks for link. Read it as meticulously as I could, but if you are not too annoyed by my curiosity, who are "Trusted institutional and corporate borrowers" and why would they borrow? Is not it unsafe to trust your coins to other parties? 6% just seems too high for me, maybe suitable for Russian government bonds in 90s.
I would never be annoyed by curiosity, only laziness.

You heard about BlockFi, had a question, and lazily just tossed it up here for others to do the work for you.

This is the same as the folks in other threads who say that cold storing BTC is "too hard" but they never actually tried in earnest. They ask us how to do it, someone answers with a step by step, then they toss back up more lazy questions or snide comments which just waste everyone's time.

Instead, go out and do the research and report back on your findings. If you can't find that info, that's also useful for the community to know, and then maybe someone has an answer for you.

That's how the community really benefits.

If you care about who their institutional and corporate buyers are, find out and tell us. Then we all win.
 

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The more time I spend on this forum reading about and discussing crypto, the more I realize that it's a wasted effort. People don't want to do any research or learn. They just want to shit on people who are actually informed, for one reason or another.

It might not seem like it, but I do appreciate the input in this thread. The link you posted earlier with that pamphlet was pretty good as it was dogma-free and just explained what the crypto world is.

I apologize if I sounded like a jerk in my previous posts. In hindsight, I think I did. I shouldn't discount something just because it's too challenging for my non-technical mind. I'd like to add some practical value to this thread.

The problem with learning about crypto is that:

1. It's highly technical. Yes, you can learn it, but the entire nature of it is very, very difficult to understand for an average brain. Obviously you don't have to understand every single part of how it works, but it helps to have some understanding which is much harder to gain than with other assets.

2. Crypto believers tie their identity to their crypto investments and often get angry when challenged. I don't see real estate investors calling other people idiots or otherwise telling them they're stupid not to invest in real estate. This makes a discussion difficult.

I did spent time learning about it (a full day) and what helped me understand the bare fundamentals the most was this video:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBC-nXj3Ng4


This was by far the best video explaining the topic in the simplest terms. Still not 100% clear, but the best that I've seen.

And also this (more technical):


I also read about wallets in this article:


This was also helpful to understand what seed phrases are and how to keep them safe:


I couldn't understand how it was possible that such a mere 12-word seed phrase will never repeat, giving you access to someone else's wallet (or vice versa). That's the part of cryptography that my brain just can't fathom. I searched for the answer online and found a great answer on one forum:

There is also the chance that all air molecules in your room spontaneously gather in the half that you are not in and you die. Do you worry about that? Maybe you should if you worry about ECDSA collisions, because it in the same ballpark of likelyhood. Its the ballpark of likelyhood where people get struck by lightning 13 days in a row and survive to tell the story how they won the lottery the week after.

IIRC electum uses this list[1] of 1626 words. Since there are 12 of them, so we are talking about 162612 ~ 3.41*1038 different combinations. Bitcoin itself has 2160 ~ 1.46 *1048 different private keys. Which is way more secure than the seed, but it makes no difference. Even considering the birthday paradoxon[2], even if every machine on earth would generate nothing but new private keys (while we still somehow manage a working society) until the sun burns out a collision is very unlikely.

I also heard that this podcast is a great explanation of crypto so I plan to listen to it to (hopefully) gain a better understanding:

 
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To attack bitcoin, you would need to be in control of a minimum of 51% of these hashes. You would need 70 Quintillion hashes to perform a successful attack on the bitcoin network.

How much of a risk is this then?

“Bitcoin is really controlled by China. There are four miners in China that control over 50% in bitcoin. How do we know that China won’t intervene (in controlling bitcoin)? How many countries want to use a Chinese-controlled currency? It’s just not going to happen,”


China has the largest industry of Bitcoin miners worldwide with estimates that the country captures anywhere between 50-65% of the global Hashrate.

 

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So will there be a 20-30% pullback at this point like there was in 2017, like I have read in some articles? Are the corporate buyers going to keep this boosted up and we not see that this go around? What are your opinions for those who follow closer than I do.
 

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The reason Bitcoin is so volatile is that the market is so small. It's nowhere near the golds market cap at this point, I believe over time volatility will weaken as will the strength of the opportunity as more liquidity enters the asset class and moves are much smaller.

Bitcoin is a dis-intermediation technology for most of the middlemen we use in finance. If this goes the way I believe it will, it will cause the biggest generational wealth transfer of our lifetimes as government-issued currencies are given the boot over superior free-market money.

If your a libertarian, Bitcoin is as libertarian as it gets.

The need for a central authority is not needed as you and the receiver will know that the transaction has taken place. The bank is removed from this equation.

One of the biggest issues with bitcoin is its ability to scale, you might send a transaction and if the network is busy it can take 1 full day to get to the other wallet. There is tech being developed such as the lightning network that allows transactions to take place off-chain at faster speeds. It's coming along nicely.

The ratio between the stock and flow is a reliable indicator of a good’s hardness as money, if you look at the stock to flow model bitcoin is following this to a T. For anything to function as a good store of value it has to appreciate when people demand it as a store of value, but its producers have to be constrained from inflating the supply significantly enough to bring down the price.

Bitcoin does this.

I see many possibilities and will probably be wrong on a lot of them.

1. Bitcoin is used as a global reserve currency.
2. Bitcoin replaces gold and chosen as a better store of value to protect against inflationary pressure.
3. Bitcoin is used for larger purchases like houses, cars, etc as it's too slow to be used for daily payments.
4. Litecoin is used for daily transactions due to its superior technology and the lightning network doesn't work as well as hoped to make bitcoin a currency.
5. Bitcoin replaces gold and Litecoin replaces FIAT.
6. You can use bitcoin as collateral for FIAT loans.

Many of the issues with volatility will go away over time. As volatility weakens the Asymmetric payoff of buying bitcoin weakens, which means your returns will be a fraction of what they are now.

Thanks. Great reply.
 
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D

Deleted70138

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This is the same as the folks in other threads who say that cold storing BTC is "too hard" but they never actually tried in earnest.
Read that, and have to agree that amount of useless information is daunting.
You heard about BlockFi, had a question
My question was not about BlockFi, but about incentive system. Obviously 6-8% from "Trusted institutional and corporate borrowers" means Ponzi scheme or speculation at best, it just came from the argument that with all the great pros, cash generation is not one that bitcoin possesses.

This all came from the initial question: Is there any businesses that price their products in bitcoin? if not, why not?
I've seen too many scammy looking websites throughout the day and some legit, but they all priced in USD.
 

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@datoelk - I read through the thread a bit. Honest question: What's your end game behind all the (lazy) questions?

I think all your questions are old, like 4+ years ago old and repeated but in different ways. This thread evolved away from a "Talk me into buying Bitcoin" years ago as the blockchain technology has progressed.

I think at this point, if you are scared of it, then it's probably not for you.

This all came from the initial question: Is there any businesses that price their products in bitcoin? if not, why not?
Yes. A simple Google search will bring up tons: Bitcoin and other cryptos. How did you miss that? It literally shows dozens and dozens, including myself where I've done commerce via Bitcoin and ETH personally throughout the years.
 
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csalvato

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It might not seem like it, but I do appreciate the input in this thread. The link you posted earlier with that pamphlet was pretty good as it was dogma-free and just explained what the crypto world is.

I apologize if I sounded like a jerk in my previous posts. In hindsight, I think I did. I shouldn't discount something just because it's too challenging for my non-technical mind. I'd like to add some practical value to this thread.

The problem with learning about crypto is that:

1. It's highly technical. Yes, you can learn it, but the entire nature of it is very, very difficult to understand for an average brain. Obviously you don't have to understand every single part of how it works, but it helps to have some understanding which is much harder to gain than with other assets.

2. Crypto believers tie their identity to their crypto investments and often get angry when challenged. I don't see real estate investors calling other people idiots or otherwise telling them they're stupid not to invest in real estate. This makes a discussion difficult.

I did spent time learning about it (a full day) and what helped me understand the bare fundamentals the most was this video:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBC-nXj3Ng4


This was by far the best video explaining the topic in the simplest terms. Still not 100% clear, but the best that I've seen.

And also this (more technical):


I also read about wallets in this article:


This was also helpful to understand what seed phrases are and how to keep them safe:


I couldn't understand how it was possible that such a mere 12-word seed phrase will never repeat, giving you access to someone else's wallet (or vice versa). That's the part of cryptography that my brain just can't fathom. I searched for the answer online and found a great answer on one forum:



I also heard that this podcast is a great explanation of crypto so I plan to listen to it to (hopefully) gain a better understanding:

Thank you for this feedback. I'm glad you did research and learned more.

Many of those resources are the same ones that I used when I was starting my journey – particularly the Tim Ferriss Podcast and the YouTube video you linked.

I'm glad you found them.

I would also highly recommend the documentary "Banking on Bitcoin".

Of course, I also encourage you to buy a tiny amount (say $100) on Coinbase (affiliate link, if you don't want to use it go to coinbase.com) and transferring it to a software wallet like Electrum, Coinbase Wallet or Casa to see how it all works.

Things will start to make a lot more sense from a practical perspective, then.

You'll see that it's OK if you don't know how it works 100% - just like you don't know how email works, or the existing financial system you use every day.

Then, maybe you want to consider getting a hardware wallet for cold storage, and start stacking sats with a modest weekly buy and leveraging shopping rewards programs like Lolli.

One step at a time.

Sorry if I came off as a jerk, as well.
 
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csalvato

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Guys just curious where you see bitcoin in 5-10 years?

- As a stable currency that doesn't go up and down as much as now?
- As more of a way to store wealth but with too much daily fluctuation to be used for everyday purchases?

I get it is in the boom stages (obviously) but are you guys with the experience expecting an eventual levelling out?

To me it just seems difficult to see which way it goes in the long run...
- To be an everyday currency it needs to be stable (no one wants to spend something that is worth 10% more a week later)
- To be stable it needs to be way less "hype" than it is now (from the perspective of the average new user)
- Nearly everyone I know in bitcoin is in it for the profit, not to use as actual currency (back to point #1)

I would love to know your thoughts on what exactly it is when the dust all settles.

(Not trolling at all, just don't see the eventual balance between investment/stable currency in the long term).

I can't really attach times to anything, but there are very natural and expected steps that BTC should go through (or any other crypto that "wins", which I think will be BTC because it's farther along in this process).

Here's one frame: just like any innovation, BTC must go through these steps:
  1. You're a joke
  2. You're a threat
  3. You're obvious
Up until 2017, BTC was solidly in the "joke" phase. In 2017, it had a blip of being a "threat" but the massive mainstream run up and bubble bursting moved it solidly back into the "joke" category again. Thus, a 3 year bear market.

Starting this year, because of the massive amount of inflation, folks like me started to double down on BTC, and more institutions started dumping their money in, too, as they evaluated where to place their inflation hedges.

2020 marked the year that Bitcoin moved solidly into the "threat" category, and the response to the threat in governments worldwide are just beginning - starting with the legislation proposed on Dec 18 with the goal of heavily hindering BTC transfers from exchange to cold storage wallet.

Now that it's a threat, I believe the next 5 years will be rough for bitcoin in terms of adoption and regulation. Once this bull run really takes off, the us gov't will unleash the full force of its power to regulate BTC. I believe a total all out ban on BTC (and other crypto assets) has an extremely high likelihood.

I accept this reality. I believe that it will cause the price to surge short term, and is a necessary part of getting out of "threat" phase and into the "obvious" phase.

How long the US gov't wages war on BTC is a total wild card. I just know the war is coming, and it will make a lot of people very rich, because the US Gov't (and other worldwide gov'ts) will ultimately lose that fight, since there's no set of regulations that can reasonably control bitcoin, and bitcoin is all but impossible to seize if handle properly (which it will be for most people who endure the war).

During this war time, prices will go up because supply will be low, and massive international (and domestic) institutions will continue buying up BTC as a store of value and inflation hedge. This is already happening, and I expect it to continue.

Once we get out of those woods, BTC and crypto will be obvious. I believe, at this point, BTC will have a market cap of at least 9T ($525k/coin using today's USD/GLD rates), and can likely be much higher than that (1-10M/coin is not off the table, IMO).

Generally speaking, assets at these market caps are inherently less volatile, so using it as a day to day currency for larger transfers (like mortgage payments or payroll) is highly likely. Using it for smaller transfers (like milk and eggs) is less likely, but with continued innovation over a decade, very possible.

The end game for BTC is to be, at the least, a stable currency for storing massive amounts of value (10M+). As the Taproot protocol and lightning network get introduced to the mainstream (both run on BTC natively), we will see a hefty chunk of the finance industry running not just on blockchain, but all on BTC.

I believe if you ask any BTC bull their opinion on the future of Bitcoin, you'd get a different story with the same major themes.
 

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How much of a risk is this then?







This article is misleading. It makes it seem like there are four big mining rigs running in china, that in total control more than 50% of the network. If that was the case, it would be a huge risk!

Luckily, the article fails to mention that these are mining pools, not mining rigs.

To mine bitcoin is like drawing a lottery ticket, see if it's the lucky number, and draw a new one if it's not. The chances of winning are minimal, and you might end up drawing tickets (mine) forever, without ever winning a price.

Over time, people have figured that it's better to cooperate. So if one miner draws the lucky number, they all share the price. This cooperation is known as a mining pool. Almost every miner mine through a pool.

Ideally, 4 mining pools would not generate 50% of all of the hashing power. However, if China were to take control of these pools, the miners backing these would switch to other pools not controlled by China.

So in other words, not much of a risk :)
 
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The economic incentive for doing a 51% makes it extremely unlikiely.

Attacking it and succeeding, would undermine the security of the network also, and leave them with coins that are useless.
 

Timmy C

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A 51% attack for no profit motive, but with the intention of destroying bitcoin in all likelihood wouldn't work either.

Processing power is a competitive market.

An attacker will look at the cost and have to be willing to dedicate the cost to get the hardware to do it.

But if such a big investment in mining equipment was made, it will lead to it becoming harder to make an attack successful due to the economic incentives of the network design.
 

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So will there be a 20-30% pullback at this point like there was in 2017, like I have read in some articles? Are the corporate buyers going to keep this boosted up and we not see that this go around? What are your opinions for those who follow closer than I do.

Seth I've been watching it pretty closely, and what I've learned is to adopt a long-term perspective with an investment in crypto.

I got into ETH at $450 and it's been an incredibly exciting to see the price today at ~$1100. It's gone up quick. Within the span of 1-2 months. Sometimes I don't believe the numbers, waking up to 20% hikes. And sometimes I want to punch myself when I see rapid pullbacks, 1 minute candles dropping dozens of points in seconds.

Daily/weekly swings are insanely volatile and watching it closely is a recipe for heart wrenching pain. To predict when the pullback, or if a pullback would occur is an answer worth billions of dollars.

I don't know what's coming in the short term - but I've learned to focus on the fundamentals. Macroeconomic principles would suggest a directionally upwards trajectory, with a large upside. That's how I'm thinking about my own investment and trying to get some quality sleep.

Check out this pamphlet put out by an investment firm:


Great info within.

What csalvato shared here is really valuable - and the perspective illustrated from a supply/demand standpoint alone is very convincing of this upside potential.

If you decide to go in - this long-term perspective could put you at ease.
 
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Deleted70138

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Yes. A simple Google search will bring up tons: Bitcoin and other cryptos. How did you miss that? It literally shows dozens and dozens, including myself where I've done commerce via Bitcoin and ETH personally throughout the years.
After searching on spendabit.com ; bitcoinwide.com; 99bitcoins.com - I could not a find a single product priced in BTC, not even one. all of them are priced in USD.
I think all your questions are old, like 4+ years ago old and repeated but in different ways. This thread evolved away from a "Talk me into buying Bitcoin" years ago as the blockchain technology has progressed.
I am genuinely curious why is not anything priced in BTC and somehow some people took this question as an offense.
From economics perspective this is very interesting question. If one could have at least one commodity industry solely based on crypto, it will bring new dimension of stability in the market.
 

Timmy C

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How much of a risk is this then?








I always find it hilarious how some banking guy is trashing bitcoin.

Why do you think that is? It's a threat to their monopoly over money; they can get as much as they want and provide no value in return as it stands right now.

The innovators who invented cars were always under attack from stagecoaches and the railroad industries. The fear-mongering ensued: ‘’Cars will scare horses!’’ ‘’Cars will injure people and damage our roads’’. Cars were far too dangerous for society, and to ‘’protect us’’, they used their power to pass a law in 1865 that required every single vehicle to observe and obey a 4MPH speed limit and be operated by no less than a crew of 3 people: one driver, an engineer, and a flagman.

The flagman was responsible for walking in front of the car to warn the people passing by of the danger. All of the railroad tycoons, lawmakers, and the self-appointed gatekeepers used regulations to stifle innovation as much as possible.

It was never about safety, but it was all about retaining their power. Much like the Bitcoin critics that spread propaganda today, criticism is always the loudest from those who’s profits are threatened, from those who’s control and influence is threatened.
 

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