Future predictions.

[loop101]

3D Printing has the potential to create new tools, which may in turn have unforeseen benefits. I forgot what the name of the theory is, but currently our tools are mass produced (screwdrivers, hammers, saws, etc), and they must be profitable to be produced. So the only tools that are available, are the ones that can profitably be made. This limitation on the tools then limits what we can build. 3D Printers will allow us to make new tools, that only 1-2 people need, or maybe 1-2 thousand, that normally would never get made. There will be a change in mindset, where builders will say, "If I had a tool that could do X, I could build Y and Z". If this works out, their could be a 2nd Industrial Revolution. That is the theory, anyway.

 

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[LimJahey]

Not mine, but an interesting read my wife sent me just now... As the world changes business either adapts or dies.

FUTURE PREDICTIONS:
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people don't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again? Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. By 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous Cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.

Most car companies may become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance Companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

Electric cars won’t become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health: There will be companies that will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breathe into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large number of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

Business Opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Agroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow-produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups that will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.

Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.

Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.



Sent from my Verizon, Samsung Galaxy smartphone



Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

 

[LimJahey]

You've also gotta add that all cars will drive themselves pretty soon.

 

[Runum]

You've also gotta add that all cars will drive themselves pretty soon.

Again... I disagree. The problem that has to be solved is the road conditions. The roads do not support the tech to enable the car to stay in its lane. We are not as close to self driving cars as you would think.

Also, insurance is got to be ironed out. If my self driving car makes a mistake and hits something, who is liable?

If there is an instant moral decision to be made on the way into a wreck, how is the software going to decide who lives and who dies?

Lots of issues to resolve.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Lots of issues to resolve.

And the entrepreneur that solves them stands to make a lot of $$$$.

 

[Waspy]

If there is an instant moral decision to be made on the way into a wreck, how is the software going to decide who lives and who dies?

Love when people ask this question. I don't know the answer, but I love the question.

My gut says that the most obvious answer is that the car makes the decision which it calculates will result in the lowest human casualty. However, then your own car may chose to kill you, and I'm not sure people will be okay with that...

 

[G-Man]

My gut says that the most obvious answer is that the car makes the decision which it calculates will result in the lowest human casualty. However, then your own car may chose to kill you, and I'm not sure people will be okay with that...

Most likely the computer will scan social media profiles, determine who takes the most selfies,... and they're done. For the good of the species.

 

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[Waspy]

Most likely the computer will scan social media profiles, determine who takes the most selfies,... and they're done. For the good of the species.

Very rep'ed.

 

[fandeuler]

I agree many businesses don't adapt or analyze competitors closely.

Blockbuster movie/game rental is another example didn't adapt with technology and times and were replaced with services such as netflix and gamefly. As well as redbox type of kiosk.

Some websites allow you to rent movies now digitally for example amazon video will allow you to rent movies or shows.

In future it may even all be digital where you can just rent a video game or movie for a time period digitally.

 

[Waspy]

In future it may even all be digital where you can just rent a video game or movie for a time period digitally.

Yeahhhh this is already a thing...

 

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[fandeuler]

Yeahhhh this is already a thing...

I was referring to a flat rate monthly membership model like with netflix/gamefly... Also video game rental isn't digital yet where you can just download and use the game for a select period of time.

 

[Waspy]

I was referring to a flat rate monthly membership model like with netflix/gamefly...

So in the future, there will be a service where you can rent movies for a flat monthly fee, like Netflix?

And in the future, there will be a service where you can rent games for a flat monthly fee, like Gamefly?

Seriously, I've got to be missing something. Was the future 5 years ago?

 

[fandeuler]

So in the future, there will be a service where you can rent movies for a flat monthly fee, like Netflix?

And in the future, there will be a service where you can rent games for a flat monthly fee, like Gamefly?

Seriously, I've got to be missing something. Was the future 5 years ago?

I am talking about it all being digital though, not where you pay monthly fee and receive disc in the mail.

 

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[Waspy]

I am talking about it all being digital though, not where you pay monthly fee and receive disc in the mail.

Literally Netflix and Gamefly then.

Got ya'

 

[fandeuler]

Literally Netflix and Gamefly then.

Got ya'

Not necessarily Gamefly or Netflix...

I am saying a company in the future will probably make it to where you can rent and watch any movie or tv series. You pay a monthly flat rate instead of paying a fee for every episode or movie like renting a movie or tv episode on Amazon. You watch it instantly digitally through streaming it after rental instead of renting online and waiting for disc to come in mail.

Then also in the future I am saying you will probably be able to pay a flat monthly fee for a video game rental membership similar to gamefly receive a disc in the mail service however it will be digital so you will be able to immediately download the game for a fixed period of time instead of going online renting the game and waiting to receive the disc in the mail to play the game.

Hopefully this clarifies and explains it better.

 

[Waspy]

Annnnnnd I just realised I've been getting trolled.

F*ck.

 

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[fandeuler]

Annnnnnd I just realised I've been getting trolled.

F*ck.

I promise you I was not trolling I think just simple misunderstanding between my explaining the idea originally instead of more in-depth.

 

[Shades]

2025 is prolly too soon for solar. Especially saying it will be the main source of power. Sure panels are coming down in price, but the batteries are the important part and they have a loooooong way to go before they are affordable for most people. Right now they are expensive with awful lifespans.

 

[fandeuler]

That exists now. I notice you're in California -- I don't think the technology has made it there yet, but many of us can stream movies and TV shows now anytime we want without renting or waiting for a disc.

Stay tuned...I have a feeling it will be in California soon, too!

I am well aware there are streaming services, you are misunderstanding what I have written I think.

I am well aware of Hulu, Netflix, Amazon Prime,Crackle and others.

I am talking about a flat rate streaming membership program that charges X amount of dollars monthly for example $25 for a month.

Then this streaming membership service updates all new tv shows after they air on tv. As well as updates with any new movies that are released.

Hulu you can stream and watch tv shows however... there's restrictions because they only have contracts with certain networks and contracts for certain tv shows. They don't have every show or new episodes for every show.

Netflix you can stream tv shows and movies however.... there's restrictions because they have different contracts with different companies and Netflix streaming doesn't get new movies the day they release only their dvd rental membership service does.

Amazon prime you can stream movies and tv shows for a flat fee of $99 a year however like with hulu and netflix they are limited because they only have contracts with certain companies... you can even rent new release movies on amazon however it is not a flat fee it is X amount for renting 1 movie.

So if someone builds a streaming service and reaches agreements with more networks, production companies and negotiate contracts for all tv shows and movies in the future, then all tv shows and movies could be on 1 streaming service.Which hypothetically speaking could be something that is possible for the future.

Does that make better sense?

 

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[MidwestLandlord]

I am well aware there are streaming services, you are misunderstanding what I have written I think.

I am well aware of Hulu, Netflix, Amazon Prime,Crackle and others.

I am talking about a flat rate streaming membership program that charges X amount of dollars monthly for example $25 for a month.

Then this streaming membership service updates all new tv shows after they air on tv. As well as updates with any new movies that are released.

Hulu you can stream and watch tv shows however... there's restrictions because they only have contracts with certain networks and contracts for certain tv shows. They don't have every show or new episodes for every show.

Netflix you can stream tv shows and movies however.... there's restrictions because they have different contracts with different companies and Netflix streaming doesn't get new movies the day they release only their dvd rental membership service does.

Amazon prime you can stream movies and tv shows for a flat fee of $99 a year however like with hulu and netflix they are limited because they only have contracts with certain companies... you can even rent new release movies on amazon however it is not a flat fee it is X amount for renting 1 movie.

So if someone builds a streaming service and reaches agreements with more networks, production companies and negotiate contracts for all tv shows and movies in the future, then all tv shows and movies could be on 1 streaming service.Which hypothetically speaking could be something that is possible for the future.

Does that make better sense?

So like streaming full cable TV service with all the networks?

Comcast does that, it's called "Stream", and you can get it if you are an Xfinity customer. Not sure if it's nationwide, as I don't watch TV.

 

[G-Man]

This conversation has gotten as pointless as the entertainment it describes.

 

[fandeuler]

So like streaming full cable TV service with all the networks?

Comcast does that, it's called "Stream", and you can get it if you are an Xfinity customer. Not sure if it's nationwide, as I don't watch TV.

Yeah maybe that would work so if you had this "Stream" program that gets tv shows from all networks available for you to stream with new episodes of their shows and then this program also got every movie added when new movies are released and this was combined in one service then that's what I am talking.

Finally think someone understands where I was going with that lol

 

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[fandeuler]

This conversation has gotten as pointless as the entertainment it describes.

Yes I apologize. I threw a wrench in the thread because what I was trying to say makes more sense in person or verbally talking to someone than it does trying to explain it by writing it on an internet forum.

 

[Waspy]

And the entrepreneur that solves them stands to make a lot of $$$$

So if someone can learn to reach agreements with more networks, production companies and negotiate contracts for all tv shows and movies in the future, then all tv shows and movies could be on 1 streaming service

Idea for free (which may also already exist, and may also violate some T&Cs).

Create a service which rolls allllll the streaming services into one. You take 1 monthly payment for $xxx and subscribe them to all of them, viewable through a nice easy to use website. Now all bases are covered. You run the odd ad before/after videos to monetise? Profit?

 

[Shades]

Idea for free (which may also already exist, and may also violate some T&Cs).

Create a service which rolls allllll the streaming services into one. You take 1 monthly payment for $xxx and subscribe them to all of them, viewable through a nice easy to use website. Now all bases are covered. You run the odd ad before/after videos to monetise? Profit?

Good luck. Massive companies have tried to tame that industry. So far none have quite done it. But it will take a massive company with a lot of pull to get it done. Like an Amazon

 

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[grindmode]

Not being a pervert or "locker room talk" but how about the overall population declining? In parts of Asia people just because of technology social media/video games/virtual worlds/etc. the marriage and dating is basically non existent in the younger current generations...

THINK with virtual reality technology becoming cheaper, connected to adult toys/phones/computers/etc. currently, robotics, and human dolls that are well "replacing partners" for both genders...

This all seems "taboo" and super creepy, nothing like a true human touch or feeling will be the same... but to these younger generations (I've seen studies the parts of the brain that respond/crave human interaction/love/communication has been proven in children to be not only stimulated but fulfilled to a certain extent just from interactions with others through social media all the way to video gaming... How about social skills and overall human interactions?

Ride in an automated Tupperware looking car to a bar with a robotic drink dispensor instead of a bar tender where you meet your latex covered robotic girlfriend for happy hour....? Scary but social interactions and baby making is going to be interesting...

 

[grindmode]

How about how everything will be connected to the cloud and the I.O.T.? EVERYTHING being on some type of network whether its bluetooth, through RF signals, SDR, WIFI, etc. ANYTHING wireless moves through the air in signals...

I have been interested and learning ethical hacking/pen-testing... Many people don't realize the vulnerabilities in electronics that we own or are in offices currently not to mention how many products are sold for hacking that no longer does it take some nerd 5 years in a dark basements soldering a giant whacko looking machine together to hack something only he and his close group of friends have access to using...

You can by full fledged hacking equipment to breach pretty much anything RIGHT NOW legally and spend a under a week learning Kali linux which is available for any device now... I have run Kali Linux Nethunter on my phone right now can do all kinds of evil things if that was my intention and I have just barely learned how to use some of the tools...

Stopping pacemakers to hacking cars... Scary things to think about and the networks are not/were not created with much if any thought of security vulnerabilities.

 

[million$$$smile]

I'm not as concerned about driverless cars as much as I am concerned about someone hacking into and stealing my car.
For some reason I couldn't imbed the video from Youtube.
Mystery device could let thieves get in your car in seconds

Said mystery devices can literally be purchased online...

Crazy...

 

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[MidwestLandlord]

I'm not as concerned about driverless cars as much as I am concerned about someone hacking into and stealing my car.

Or hackers killing people:

The Jeep Hackers Are Back to Prove Car Hacking Can Get Much Worse

 

[Raoul Duke]

I predict that most colleges will go bankrupt.