HOT TOPIC Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[Andreas Thiel]

So what are you saying that Bitcoin is just a demo-lunch for other crypto( the one that replace fiat money), and the value his has now is just due to FOMO investors

At least I take that train of thought seriously. I am not saying that is definitely the case.
Bitcoin as a currency has serious limitations. That is why investors who believe it is a great alternative to gold determine its fate, not idealists.

Our mental models around Blockchain and Bitcoin are extremely crude. Assume that blockchain technology does actually completely transform the world of finance. There is an infographic that illustrated that things miiight get complicated.

The Future of Money - Infographic

What will the role that Bitcoin plays be in such a complex world? I think it might be around, but without playing the huge role that people expect now.

I try to think about how the world will develop by playing the thought and so far I think goverments and companies are in a position to decide how we enter this new age.
Arguably a monetary reform is in our near future. Even if Bitcoin was actually the innovation, not a test run, Bitcoin will have to prove itself over and over again.

IMO, your thinking is too narrow. I don't expect this to change your opinion. It does seem like you're on the journey to find truth, though. If, after researching and processing what I am saying, you still disagree...that's fine.

Yes, agreed. But all of us have that problem. I just think your innovation argument is too vague. Sure, blockchain technology will be around ... but why is the probability that Bitcoin has a Kodak moment (the one where Kodak suddenly seized to matter - hey, they had one of the first digital cameras and decided they suck and have no future).

In that vast universe of blockchain based "future finance", Bitcoin only has the potential to be the gold equivalent. That is worth something, definitely.
But is completely wrong to equate the future of finance with Bitcoin.

 

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[Abenh]

I think if you understand the theory of diffusion of innovation, it's clear why the probability of that is near 0

i totaly understood and i agree with you about that and the uses of bitcoin
also nation of the world can disagree about the transaction with bitcoin after lunching their own crypto(the one that will replace fiat ) like gold coins back in the days

 

[Abenh]

In that vast universe of blockchain based "future finance"

blockshain will not just change the banking industry but can change also the whole accured assets
think about it it can be used in real estate, cmpanies,cars and can faster or get rit of the administration proccess

The Future of Money - Infographic

i saw the Infographic it make sense by the way that we are going to a futur like that (decentralized) and it up to the government to manage the shift and decide about what to incorporate bitcoin or not

 

[Timmy C]

It's always interesting coming online after a night on the piss and seeing what garbage I posted.

 

[awsamro]

Hi Guys,

I am newbie about cryptocurrencies.
Do you suggest any book or forum to understand well this argument ?

Thanks

Hello,
I suggest Crypto Currency Investment course by Suppoman on Udemy. Add it to your watch list and buy it when it goes on discount for around $20.

 

[awsamro]

i totaly understood and i agree with you about that and the uses of bitcoin
also nation of the world can disagree about the transaction with bitcoin after lunching their own crypto(the one that will replace fiat ) like gold coins back in the days

What do you guys think of bitcoin ETF QBTC? I am thinking of buying slowly into it over the next few years to coat average. Also Im from Canada and you can hold ETFs in a tax sheltered vehicle here but you can not do the same for straight up Crypto.

 

[James Fend]

@James Fend Your estimations on the correction are still strong?

Seems like we're going to see a bull run in the next days...

Yes. Not sure if I posted here, but I sold most of my positions in the mid $15ks, and although I expect $13k in Dec sometime, I mentioned that it could run up to $17k and $19k until then. Usually where I feel like it's getting in the top range; I will swing trade in and out. I've been mostly swing trading alts in the past week or so.

Note: 2020 logic would say it prints an all time higher high. So there's a strong chance it busts low $20ks before heading down. Either way; I will continue to swing trade in and out reducing my exposure to any sudden sell off. Also; regardless where the top price actually lands, I still am playing as if the $13k correction will still occur as printing a lower low needs to be tested and accomplished before we see a full blown bull in 2021.

 

[James Fend]

MY THOUGHTS ON STOCK MARKETS & ALL EQUITIES IN 2020 Q4 AND 2021 Q1:

I believe there's a strong possibility we see a LONG SELL OFF IN ALL EQUITIES STARTING NEXT WEEK (NOVEMBER 23 - 27) THAT WILL LAST TO FEB/MARCH OF 2021 (quite possibly leading into a giant double-bottom)

WHY?

SELL THE NEWS.

RUMOR = Everybody and their gramma bought stocks from March to now in anticipation of the Golden Days to return.

NEWS = The Vaccine gets approval and begins distribution.

THIS IS THE NEWS TO SELL for the Return to Normal Days anticipation (aka Rumor) people bought their "long term holds" for.

Without the Fed this time (and likely ZERO Stimulus and zero FED tampering in the 3-4 month horizon), the PSYCHOLOGY GAME RETURNS BACK TO NORMAL MARKET RULES, and this means that big bold contrarian moves is where and how the big funds move since they have now re-gained control from the crazy influx of Fed retail trader money.

The vaccine is currently about 90-95% proven in trials, distribution is all ready to go with pharma companies having the logistics almost all in place: tons of vials, cold shipping boxes/containers/storage, contracts with FedEx, etc., and FDA is rushing and pressured to approve something.

Remember back in February and March; when I was screaming about Covid while it wasn't even a thing... And it then turned into a pandemic, and was a pandemic for weeks, but it wasn't "officially" one to where people were all hell broke loose freaking until: WHO officially declared it a global pandemic.

Same thing here. Not sure why people need an official announcement or declaration to see something so obvious, but its clear the vaccines works (at least for the short term of ~1 year).. so it doesn't need an official approval from the FDA for me to know its the real deal and works. BUT IT'S LIKELY THIS EXACT ANNOUNCEMENT TYPE NEWS IS WHAT WILL FINALLY PUSH THE BALL OVER THE HILL.

Anyways; with that all said.. Just as I did in February with huge shorts and puts and rode it down to Max Market Fear Day in mid March; I have already begun getting into big Short positions this past week. I will ignore any run up that could possibly occur Monday or Tuesday, and expect a big sell candle later Weds or Thurs or Friday.

If it does happen; I will ride these big Puts & Shorts all way to the pits until February 2021.

If a big sell candle does not happen (or continue to look super shaky leading into last week Nov/early Dec), then I will check out market conditions, and technicals and may pivot or adjust accordingly if anything changes in big ways. But for right now.... It's Game On.

As far as Bitcoin; I think Bitcoin will depend on a few other factors: For right now, the initial sell off of equities should bring all ships down with the down tide, but USA admin office transfer and stimulus talks in other countries will have a huge affect on Bitcoin's possible bounce (or lack there of) as it could be used as a hedge against govt or currency turbulence and inverse stocks.

Anways... will be interesting to see how this year unfolds.

EDIT: Adding in current valuations. DJI: 29,263 S&P: 3557

 

[socaldude]

John Maynard Keynes is about be be proven ridiculously wrong

I know , Keynes was a giant shill and a schmuck.

As soon as crypto becomes more widely used and accepted because of its efficiency. Visa and Mastercard will be carried out in body bags.

 

[c4n]

MY THOUGHTS ON STOCK MARKETS & ALL EQUITIES IN 2020 Q4 AND 2021 Q1:

I believe there's a strong possibility we see a LONG SELL OFF IN ALL EQUITIES STARTING NEXT WEEK (NOVEMBER 23 - 27) THAT WILL LAST TO FEB/MARCH OF 2021 (quite possibly leading into a giant double-bottom)

Always interesting to read your input, @James Fend, even when it reads like a doomsday scenario. Or especially then

The S&P 500 on weekly looks like a broadening wedge to me with RSI divergence - if it plays out it could go down near to 2000 before June 2021. I can't predict the future though so asses & adjust as things unfold.

I agree - if the market goes down, crypto will also take a sizeable hit, just like it did in March 2020.

One thing I noticed in March was how gold behaves - paper gold went down with the market, but physical gold held strong because it was hard to get (delivery times for bullion and coins were 30+ days) as people rushed to buy it.

 

[Timmy C]

Alt season.

That's all.

 

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[Kasimir]

Thanks for the interesting input @James Fend.
I have mixed feelings about Bitcoin right now. But long-term I'm totally bullish. Could go back down to 12k but not sure if much further. Sold a part of my position at 14k and a little at 17k but still long.

And I have a similar problem with the stock markets.
- Inflation will be big in the next couple of years that would be positive for Bitcoin and rather bad for US stocks.
- The pandemic is coming to an end. Maybe a little earlier than expected. Yeah, probably a bearish signal. But a lot of people know that usually after a crisis we can see a huge bullish period.

In my mind, it's difficult to predict the next couple of months. But I think we'll probably see Bitcoin coming down to 12k or even further. However, I think a quick pullback to 20k is likely. Chances are high that it could even go to 25k in the first half of 2021.
I'm also bullish on stocks. However, I'll minimize my risks and look at what will happen in the next couple of weeks. I think the USD will have a hard time but stocks will go up in 2021.

 

[Timmy C]

I would bet money on the same idiots who bought at the all-time high years ago will sell when it reaches that ATH this time.

 

[Timmy C]

Bitcoin just broke 355 bill in market cap for the first time in history.

Alts pumping.

If XLM and XRP can pump 50% anything will.

 

[Kasimir]

I'm not sure if the bull run of Bitcoin is finished as some of you guys think. We probably see a medium since correction to around 14k or 15k but then I think we could be ready for om 25k highs at least.

 

[Timmy C]

I'm not sure if the bull run of Bitcoin is finished as some of you guys think. We probably see a medium since correction to around 14k or 15k, but then I think we could be ready for om 25k highs at least.

I don't think many people here believe bitcoins bull run is finished.

Some pull backs, yes.

But this is only getting started.

 

[James Fend]

@Kasimir @Timmy C agreed. I believe what compromises $10k to $13-15k is mostly:

1. Early adopters who never left the crypto world, always looking for early bull market signs. (likely not to sell until it's $100k literally lol)

2. Institution money. (these people are actually more prone to sell than the "retail" early adopter traders because they believe alot more in profit taking when over-extended, but will usually always jump back in hence becoming a fairly reliable source to stair stepper floor. Of course, they also keep portions of their allocations in long holds that they don't plan on touching... for a longgg time.)

With that said... $13-15k sounds about right to shake out the "eyeball retail traders/all time high chasers" that compromises from there to where we are now.

If we indeed stick a solid higher low... man, oh man.... IT IS ON for 2021! AND I (we) AM MUCH MUCH BETTER PREPARED THIS TIME AROUND.

 

[James Fend]

Quick Analysis Update:

Bitcoin’s top & broad market selloff either happens: This morning in 6-8hrs or Sunday.

If not here in 6-8hrs, then Bitcoin is doing a triangle consolidation for first part of the day that will break to the upside and wipe out that ATH...

Stock futures are flat right now and could point to big downside, but Im leaning towards Monday and a run to ATH and some fomo pumps over the holiday/weekend as people gather and talk hype about Bitcoin, stocks, etc. (similar to Nov 2017’s holiday into weekend)

 

[Kevin88660]

I don't think many people here believe bitcoins bull run is finished.

Some pull backs, yes.

But this is only getting started.

Given this parabolic move in btc I don’t think we are seeing any serious pull back until the price is at much higher.

Retail interest at present is no way near 2017 year end, judging from Google search trend.

Institution money is patient. Even a 30 percent correction of a 1 percent aum speculative allocation is just 0.3 percent. They are not going to panic dump like retail.

This is more like a “inflation fear driven” bull market. Reminds me of exactly ten years ago when pundits are saying why gold is going to the rood and U.S. dollar is dying.

Fast forward to 2020 Fed injected so much liquidity that made 2009 QE like child play.

I have a small stake in alt coin. I would not sell them until I heard some alt coin project founder’s paper wealth is near elon musk’s level and that will be your cnbc headline..

 

[mThree2K]

Well Bitcoin, here we go again.

Lots of voices stating this pullback could end at 12k but as always BTC goes far beyond what everyone thinks.

Could the vaccine news also be a catalyst for a huge pullback in BTC due to investors thinking that the FED won´t pump any more stimulation into the markets because this pandemic will end sooner as expected?

@James Fend great analysis, always amazes me how one can predict more or less accurate a market move, is it experience? Is it some mix of indicators & charts?

This sure is exciting to watch.

 

[Kak]

As the old saying goes, buy when there is blood in the streets. I might pick some bitcoin up when it finds support.

I have been SUPER lean on BC for over a year, but I like a lot about it... I am also not about to risk more than 5% of my portfolio on it and I think that is a fairly strong position. The key reason being is the evolution of tech and my fear of government banning it.

It is fiat, the way fiat was supposed to be. A commodity, not a manipulation.

 

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[Timmy C]

This pullback has been predictable.

Further to fall.

 

[Kasimir]

Think it will fall down to 12-14k at least that where I'll buy some more. But potentially even see a pullback to 10k. But after that, I am just going to hold and wait. I have mixed feelings about crypto in Q1 and Q2 of 2021. But we'll see.

 

[Andreas Thiel]

Something I think is worth following closely: some marketplaces are starting to tie crypto owners to a confirmed digital identity to counter money laundering and funding of terrorists: BTCDirekt (Netherlands) requires users to properly authenticate. The UN has announced a biometric digital ID wallet.

We'll see how free Bitcoin will be in the near future.

 

[csalvato]

Something I think is worth following closely: some marketplaces are starting to tie crypto owners to a confirmed digital identity to counter money laundering and funding of terrorists: BTCDirekt (Netherlands) requires users to properly authenticate. The UN has announced a biometric digital ID wallet.

We'll see how free Bitcoin will be in the near future.

Just for clarity, this isn't "starting".

This has been going on since at least 2012, when Coinbase was founded. They were immediately required to KYC all customers using the platform over a certain volume.

The BitLicense in NYS was passed in 2014, made to "protect" people investing in BTC with similar regulations and means.

It may be worth it for you to watch the Banking on Bitcoin documentary for a more thorough history on the earliest BTC regulations, including KYC/AML laws.

 

[Kevin88660]

Something I think is worth following closely: some marketplaces are starting to tie crypto owners to a confirmed digital identity to counter money laundering and funding of terrorists: BTCDirekt (Netherlands) requires users to properly authenticate. The UN has announced a biometric digital ID wallet.

We'll see how free Bitcoin will be in the near future.

They are more concerned with things like tax evasion and capital outflow, or losing track of who pays who and who owns what.

These are not like not stocks and real estates that are centralized. The government doesn’t know what you own. Think about the mandatory declaration on bringing in cash across border...how do you do that with bitcoin.

There are just two many wallets, too many coins options and too many different games to play that the regulation is impossible to catch up with. From btc to privacy alt-coins to defi...

It is all about having control versus losing control.

Governments do not like crypto. But their attempt to regulate crypto will inevitably fail because there will never be a united effort. There is always rival economics interest. Do you think swiss regulators will spend efforts and money cracking down on U.S. millionaires trying to leave their countries to settle in Switzerland?

 

[Timmy C]

The more important question and one that isn't asked enough is, what's your exit plan?

It's all good and well for BTC to go to $100k, but how to realize the value? And not get stuck holding the bag like everyone from 2017 did.

There are a few strategies that you could implement and I wouldn't care about holding a bitcoin bag.

If you have cheap hot alts you don't want to be holding onto that shit.

 

[James Fend]

As we near the monthly candle closing, I think we are going to go for a dip into the mid $17,000s.

I plan on buying and pushing most, if not all, of my chips in in the mid-$17,000s for the final entry into the wild 2021 ride that is come.

WHY HERE AT $17,000S?

I don't think it'll hit $14k or $15k or even $16k... and literally, the only reason why I think it won't is because it seems this has become the general consensus on what to expect.

This price action area reminds me too much of when I went all in around the $10,000 area when everyone was staying out awaiting $8,000 and a CME Gap that was suppose to be a guaranteed to fill. Same logic, the only reason why was because it became the general consensus.

Breakout Sleeper: XRP
There will be an almost guaranteed volatility leading to some fast quick run ups (like we just witnessed) as we approach December 12th where they have Spark Fork occurring. In short, the fork is suppose to give you 1:1 of some forked XRP coin later in early 2021; and the amount you get depends on how much XRP you have sitting on an exchange when they take a snapshot on December 12th.

 

[Timmy C]

As we near the monthly candle closing, I think we are going to go for a dip into the mid $17,000s.

I plan on buying and pushing most, if not all, of my chips in in the mid-$17,000s for the final entry into the wild 2021 ride that is come.

WHY HERE AT $17,000S?

I don't think it'll hit $14k or $15k or even $16k... and literally, the only reason why I think it won't is because it seems this has become the general consensus on what to expect.

This price action area reminds me too much of when I went all in around the $10,000 area when everyone was staying out awaiting $8,000 and a CME Gap that was suppose to be a guaranteed to fill. Same logic, the only reason why was because it became the general consensus.

Breakout Sleeper: XRP
There will be an almost guaranteed volatility leading to some fast quick run ups (like we just witnessed) as we approach December 12th where they have Spark Fork occurring. In short, the fork is suppose to give you 1:1 of some forked XRP coin later in early 2021; and the amount you get depends on how much XRP you have sitting on an exchange when they take a snapshot on December 12th.

I disagree man but that's fine haha.

I can't see this breaking ATH for another few months at least, and do believe a major pullback is imminent.

 

[Timmy C]

The consensus to me seems to think we are going up more so than going down.