The Ukraine War, implications, outcome?

[Raoul Duke]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1405126328538501124

View: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1405126328538501124

 

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[starttoday123]

Stay safe to anyone in Ukraine or nearby.

 

[madlife]

I’m going to get a lot of flak for this, but this is a moment where I wish Trump was still president, as flawed as he was.

That dude would not mess around. He did crazy stuff and foreign dictators feared and respected him.

He might say something that upsets people in a speech, but he's the kind of guy I'd like in the WH during World War 3, like Churchill was for Britain in World War 2.

big true

 

[Mathuin]

*Bad thing happens*

Celebrities: “How can I make this about me?”

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496877541772062727

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/IAMannalynnemcc/status/1496877541772062727

 

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[Vas87]

*Bad thing happens*

Celebrities: “How can I make this about me?”

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496877541772062727

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/IAMannalynnemcc/status/1496877541772062727

So much cringe.

 

[sotomo]

I’m going to get a lot of flak for this, but this is a moment where I wish Trump was still president, as flawed as he was.

That dude would not mess around. He did crazy stuff and foreign dictators feared and respected him.

He might say something that upsets people in a speech, but he's the kind of guy I'd like in the WH during World War 3, like Churchill was for Britain in World War 2.

It seems more like Putin just did not want to go to war with his friend. But he was going to do it anyway. It's a lot different when nuclear weapons are involved as opposed to Churchill's time but I'm no expert at all. We have too much of everything as a species including killing ability so, as they say, what could go wrong?

 

[DWX]

This lecture explains the conflict well. (It’s also six years old and eerie as hell given current times.)

As someone who has only learned about this conflict through mainstream sources, I now understand why Russia has reacted in this way.

It doesn’t make it right - ultimately, a country and her people are now facing grave perils - but it does shed light on the motivations.

Worth a watch if you have time.

View: https://youtu.be/JrMiSQAGOS4

 

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[EmotionEngine]

Heartbreaking. All this doesn't need to happen.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496855703172091906

View: https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/status/1496855703172091906?s=20&t=KwszEkTLKtqGr48MvMIsKg

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

It seems more like Putin just did not want to go to war with his friend. But he was going to do it anyway. It's a lot different when nuclear weapons are involved as opposed to Churchill's time but I'm no expert at all. We have too much of everything as a species including killing ability so, as they say, what could go wrong?

based on what?

Just because you manage to stay on good terms with someone, doesn't mean you are their partner. I believe they used to call that diplomacy. Peacekeeping.

At least, when other people did that, it was called diplomacy. For four years, Putin didn't move an inch on his conquest goals. I don't see how anybody can say Trump gave him a free pass or anything. He took Crimea in 2014, during the Obama years, and is taking the rest of Ukraine now, during Biden's years.

 

[Kevin88660]

based on what?

Just because you manage to stay on good terms with someone, doesn't mean you are their partner. I believe they used to call that diplomacy. Peacekeeping.

At least, when other people did that, it was called diplomacy. For four years, Putin didn't move an inch on his conquest goals. I don't see how anybody can say Trump gave him a free pass or anything. He took Crimea in 2014, during the Obama years, and is taking the rest of Ukraine now, during Biden's years.

Russia only can afford to fight during high oil prices. 2004, 2014 and now 2022..

Obama and Trump did nothing when China took over the entire south china sea. It is a region much more geopolitically valuable than Taiwan or Ukraine.

 

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[Xeon]

I tried to understand the geopolitics behind it. It seems like Russia doesn't want the Ukraine to become a member of NATO, because for them NATO is an extension of US influence. And coincidentally, new military bases seem to be strategically placed in such a way that in the future they would provide the US with first strike capabilities with the European nations as a shield. Russian missiles would need to fly over the ocean, but American ones are placed at their border and would arrive in minutes. Which would make them a vassal state negotiation-wise. If this is the long-term outlook for them, I honestly don't see any other option than what they're doing now. Or am I wrong?

Nailed it completely. This war would have eventually come given NATO's expansion eastward towards Russia. It's like Russia expanding in Latin America or Canada. No way the US can accept that.

I only hope that Putin is going to end this quick, get it done and over with to stop more civilians from getting killed. Displace the government, install a puppet government if they have to, and let everyone get on with their lives. Zelensky himself is a US puppet who was put in place after the US staged a color revolution a decade ago to overthrow their previous government.

*Bad thing happens*

Celebrities: “How can I make this about me?”

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496877541772062727

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/IAMannalynnemcc/status/1496877541772062727

That's not all. I see some smaller brands on Twitter posting flat images of the Ukraine flag with their logo on top of that, saying they "stand with Ukraine". Insensitive and crude.

 

[Xeon]

LIVE news: President Zelensky says Ukraine 'left alone' to fight Russia

Live news updates: Russian forces invade Ukraine in a massed assault by land, sea and air, the biggest attack by one state against another in Europe since World War Two.

www.google.com

Zelensky was probably betting that NATO will put troops on the ground which was why he behaved in that hardheaded manner that he did and escalated tensions with Russia.

 

[Speed112]

This lecture explains the conflict well. (It’s also six years old and eerie as hell given current times.)

As someone who has only learned about this conflict through mainstream sources, I now understand why Russia has reacted in this way.

It doesn’t make it right - ultimately, a country and her people are now facing grave perils - but it does shed light on the motivations.

Worth a watch if you have time.

View: https://youtu.be/JrMiSQAGOS4

Haven't seen this before. Confirmation bias galore. I guess I'm glad that it's supporting basically all of the conclusions I've reached independently. I like how he's calling out the "conventional wisdom" that is still being perpetuated even today...

Was checking the news for a bit on TV and all they were talking about is how "insane" and "irrational" Putin is and generally ad hominem attacking him without any real coverage about the why and how these things are happening. What a waste of time.

How can people be surprised that all of this is happening? It's an ongoing process for over a decade! It's like watching a trainwreck in slow motion... Is it ignorance? Or just an inability to look at alternative perspectives.

This professor of polsci must be deluded, too, I guess.

 

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[MoneyDoc]

From Zelensky himself (Feb 25 Ukraine Time):

Speaking in the early hours of the morning from Kiev, Zelensky said he had reached out to “partners” in the West to tell them Ukraine’s fate was at stake.

“I asked them – are you with us?” Zelensky said. “They answered that they are with us, but they don’t want to take us into the alliance. I’ve asked 27 leaders of Europe, if Ukraine will be in NATO, I’ve asked them directly — all are afraid and did not respond”

“We were left by ourselves. Who is ready to go to war for us? Honestly, I don’t see anybody. Who is ready to give Ukraine guarantees of NATO membership? Honestly, everybody is afraid,” the Ukrainian president added.

Russia sent troops into Ukraine on Thursday, with President Vladimir Putin declaring a special military operation to “demilitarize and de-nazify” Ukraine. Moscow has since told Kiev that it would consider negotiating with the Zelensky government if it agrees to discuss neutral status for the country, among other things.

In an address on Friday, Zelensky said that he is open to talk about Ukraine’s potential neutral status, but insisted that his country needs third party guarantees.

“We are not not afraid of Russia, we are not afraid to talk with Russia, talk about everything: security guarantees for our country and a neutral status. But we are not in NATO now – what security guarantees will we have? Which countries will give them?” he said, before adding that there should be talks that could bring an end to the Russian military offensive.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday that “neutral status and rejection of hosting [offensive] weapons systems”are Putin’s “red lines” for Ukraine and that the ball was now in Kiev's court.

 

[sotomo]

based on what?

Just because you manage to stay on good terms with someone, doesn't mean you are their partner. I believe they used to call that diplomacy. Peacekeeping.

At least, when other people did that, it was called diplomacy. For four years, Putin didn't move an inch on his conquest goals. I don't see how anybody can say Trump gave him a free pass or anything. He took Crimea in 2014, during the Obama years, and is taking the rest of Ukraine now, during Biden's years.

Hey, I have no idea. I'm just prepping. What you say sounds great. It's just that Putin's strategy could be conceived as old fashioned divide and conquer. This country is F*cked socially. It seems pretty clear that he wants to destabilize us, which is a pretty easy thing to not want to do. Plus, hey, don't invade countries, is that so hard?

 

[Antifragile]

I don't see how anybody can say Trump gave him a free pass or anything.

C’on man, this is your 3rd Trump post. It’s getting annoying. Just because you can’t see it, doesn’t mean it isn’t there. But I don’t want to derail this thread with a talk about imbecile past president.

 

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[Guest-5ty5s4]

C’on man, this is your 3rd Trump post. It’s getting annoying. Just because you can’t see it, doesn’t mean it isn’t there. But I don’t want to derail this thread with a talk about imbecile past president.

I said the first one and everyone of course made it all about him. It’s just fun to point out how people will take a situation like this... Russia invading Ukraine in 2022... and somehow blame it on the last guy, no longer in office...in America. It’s just odd.

It was a reply.

Deleting the rest because my opinion won’t change yours.

 

[MoneyDoc]

Moscow is willing to negotiate terms of surrender with Kyiv, Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov. In exchange Ukraine would: a guarantee of neutral status and the promise of no weapons on its territory. Per RT.

Question is - does he give in to Moscow? As saddening this may sound (surrendering your own Country because of an aggressor), I think at this point, to spare further bloodshed and to preserve civilian lives, this might be his only choice and it's something Zelensky has hinted towards literally hours ago:

"But they don’t want to take us into the alliance" (they = NATO).
"Who is ready to go to war for us? Honestly, I don’t see anybody."

 

[lludwig]

All I have to say regarding the USA is how stupid we are.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496989107943358467

View: https://twitter.com/nickgillespie/status/1496989107943358467?s=20&t=jkM4FnLxnbrlmYF0ZPmUsg


John Kerry couldn't be dumber. We should have been focusing on more fracking, drilling and become energy independent and maybe an exporter. Instead, we focus on political correctness, gender, race, going "woke" and worrying about climate change. Wind and solar will not save us.

Inflation will now get much worse and we have only ourselves to blame. I hated Trump and the Biden admin is even worse. I just shake my head in disgust. I personally don't think we should get involved but I also think we could be more independent than dealing with these bad actors.

Expect more pain in the USA (and Europe even more).

 

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[loop101]

If we have another Cold War with Russia, American defense contractors will make a ton of money over the next few decades. Money that could have been spent paying down our National Debt. It seems like someone is flying this plane right in to a mountain, and no one can do anything about it.

 

[Prince33]

Money that could have been spent paying down our National Debt.

Comical.

I don't buy it, call me crazy.
When we see footage of both sides and bullets flying while people all over social media are being seen driving out the cities with mattresses tied to the roof of their cars Im calling B.S.

This is 2022, not 1982. Can't trust anything at face value anymore.

 

[Cool_Llama]

based on what?

Just because you manage to stay on good terms with someone, doesn't mean you are their partner. I believe they used to call that diplomacy. Peacekeeping.

At least, when other people did that, it was called diplomacy. For four years, Putin didn't move an inch on his conquest goals. I don't see how anybody can say Trump gave him a free pass or anything. He took Crimea in 2014, during the Obama years, and is taking the rest of Ukraine now, during Biden's years.

Trump, Biden, Obama, or any politician is not your friend. They are there for their own self interest or agenda. Stop defending Trump or any other politician. They are all sh*t heads.

I find it crazy that people are willing to fight physically or verbally with other people for a politician(or anyone) that doesn’t even know your name.

Leave that sh*t to the sheep my man. I know your smarter than that.

 

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[BizyDad]

All I have to say regarding the USA is how stupid we are.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496989107943358467

View: https://twitter.com/nickgillespie/status/1496989107943358467?s=20&t=jkM4FnLxnbrlmYF0ZPmUsg


John Kerry couldn't be dumber. We should have been focusing on more fracking, drilling and become energy independent and maybe an exporter. Instead, we focus on political correctness, gender, race, going "woke" and worrying about climate change.

Inflation will now get much worse and we have only ourselves to blame. I hated Trump and the Biden admin is even worse.

I read we became an energy exporter in 2019 and 20. Did that change? I don't think the stats for 2021 have been compiled yet.

We're not energy independent, but with our own coal and natural gas powering our power plants, increased near-record pumping of our own oil, combined with investments in the solar grid, more fuel efficient cars, a big push for transportation to go electric, I mean, we're closer to energy independence than we've been in my lifetime. Electric cars are sexy now. Our oil imports are at pre-1995 levels, which is impressive considering our population growth, though surely lockdowns have a role to play in that as well. But they were on the decline in 2019 too.

What more did you want? Mandates?

Of course none of this makes John Kerry smart. Our leaders are unbelievably tone deaf. He thought we were past the era of threatened international borders? Good grief. And that guy used to be Secretary of State.

Biden says America stands up to bullies. Putin moves 100,000+ soldiers into Ukraine so Biden sends 7,000 soldiers... To Germany.

My dad pointed out old men have trouble standing up.

Comical.

I don't buy it, call me crazy.
When we see footage of both sides and bullets flying while people all over social media are being seen driving out the cities with mattresses tied to the roof of their cars Im calling B.S.

This is 2022, not 1982. Can't trust anything at face value anymore.

What? Ok, you're crazy.

Apparently someone is trying to give Black_Dragon competition for the forum's 2022 Rivoli Of The Year award...

 

[MitchC]

Can a war finally wake people up enough to end this pathetic woke garbage.

It really puts things in perspective. It was mentioned earlier on this thread that the west are busy hiding from a virus, destroying their economy’s and dollars, trying not to offend a man who says they are a women while Russia is busy working.

The women above saying she wishes she was putins mother and that idiot saying they’re going to catch covid makes me think not.

How the F*ck do we actually fix the west?

Also, if covid wasn’t enough to do it, maybe China invading Taiwan will be. It’s time to bring back local manufacturing.

My predictions. Russia drains the swamp in Ukraine. Biden’s approval rating hits 0. People wake up and realise they need some actual leaders and vote trump back in.

No WW3, not even close.

I hope I’m right, I’m taking the positive approach.

Yes some of this is offtopic and yes some of this is about trump sorry antifragile, no I’m not using a war and peoples suffering to push some kind of point or agenda I think it’s a relevant part of the prediction in a sense that for us lucky not to be in Ukraine this is how I think we will be affected.

 

[Ocean Man]

Messages from a family member. Asking about their parent's safety, it seems like they've been taken by Russian forces without a fight. They live at home but their city has been taken over by Russian forces.

 

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[Xeon]

That's all true but then Ukraine will be a Russian puppet state for the foreseeable future. If they want to stay independent the only option is to fight back and try to inflict casualties on Russians. Steady stream of Russian soldiers going back home in bodybags can turn public opinion against Putin surprisingly quickly.

The worst thing that can happen in this conflict is for the Ukrainians and Russians to drag this into a neverending war like what's going on in some countries in the middle east. Looking at how the world is cheering on for Ukrainians to fight the Russians to the last man, I fear the worst will come true.

Honestly, if the world really wants to help Ukraine, stop donating or funding their military and let Putin end this quick. Ukraine may become Belarus but at least the people can get on with their lives and jobs instead of living in fear with missiles flying over their heads. This sounds very unpatriotic and spineless but I'm viewing this entirely from a human lives angle.

 

[BizyDad]

This sounds very unpatriotic and spineless but I'm viewing this entirely from a human lives angle.

I suppose your advice would be the same for Poland, Taiwan, Lithuania, etc? Why stop there? Let Putin invade east Germany, China invade India.

As long as everybody lays down arms and little to no lives are lost, everybody can get on with their lives...

You're right. This does sound spineless. What kind of life is worth living if nothing in life is worth fighting for?

 

[Xeon]

I suppose your advice would be the same for Poland, Taiwan, Lithuania, etc? Why stop there? Let Putin invade east Germany, China invade India.

As long as everybody lays down arms and little to no lives are lost, everybody can get on with their lives...

You're right. This does sound spineless. What kind of life is worth living if nothing in life is worth fighting for?

Yeah sure but for how long and at what cost?

I mean, if the Ukrainians want to fight endless decades of war, are ok with no jobs, constantly living in fear, in a constant state of hunger, then God bless them.

If the enemy they're facing right now is someone they can defeat in weeks or months, sure. But Russia has not even gotten serious in the war, Moscow is intact and Ukraine is already in ruins. *facepalm*

 

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[Antti]

Yeah sure but for how long and at what cost?

I mean, if the Ukrainians want to fight endless decades of war, are ok with no jobs, constantly living in fear, in a constant state of hunger, then God bless them.

If the enemy they're facing right now is someone they can defeat in weeks or months, sure. But Russia has not even gotten serious in the war, Moscow is intact and Ukraine is already in ruins. *facepalm*

It has been estimated that 75% of Russian conventional forces are tied in this operation. Do you think they can continue that for decades? Putin is counting on this being a quick and relatively painless (for Russians) operation. A prolonged war could be catastrophic for him.

 

[Madame Peccato]

I don't know who to believe.

Do I believe Putin when he says that he just wants to make Ukraine a buffer zone and leave the rest alone? Or do I believe the other side's propaganda, that says Putin wants to rebuild the Soviet empire and storm into Romania, Poland, Lithuania, and the Czech Republic?

My gut tells me the former.

View attachment 42289

The real threat.

Please, step it up.

As for the war itself...I don't know.