The Ukraine War, implications, outcome?

[Trevor Kuntz]

no, there would be no consequences because Putin is a scared dog. He knows he will DIE if he does anything - even if he destroys the world in the process, he will still be dead.

He doesn’t want his legacy to be having destroyed himself and Russia.

He’s counting on the fact that we’re scared to retaliate and he’s thumping his chest, if you interfere, I will nuke you, bla bla bla. It’s a STUPID bluff. If I was US President last night I would’ve ordered the bombing of key targets in Moscow with the clear message that if Putin doesn’t STOP, Russia will be turned to ashes, even if the whole world goes in flames along with it.

you’re deluded bro. In Russia and China if 200 million people need to disappear, they disappear. It’s not a problem.

Shit, with this attitude, I wouldn't even want you in charge of a boy scout troop, let alone the US military.

 

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[Speed112]

Are you CRAZY? Why would we do that?! Why would we give any concession to Russia and China?

Again, America is the world’s superpower. America sets the rules. China and Russia should be the ones making concessions.

you’re deluded bro. In Russia and China if 200 million people need to disappear, they disappear. It’s not a problem.

Who are "we?"

They're claiming they don't want war. If they don't want war they have to give concessions. If they don't give the concessions they want and instead keep encroaching on their opponents' national security while feigning ignorance, that to me looks like instigating.

But it is a problem. Can't defend your territory if you don't have the manpower to do it.

This is an actual national security issue from the perspective of Russians.
They don't see themselves as the aggressors, they are neutralizing threats.

The need for geographic security (pushing back encroaching threats) gives the motive.
The worry of a dwindling military force (demographic collapse) gives the timing, since this is the last opportunity to do something. 10 years from now they won't have the ability to do so anymore.

It's very pragmatic I don't see how I'm deluded.

 

[Matt Sun]

Helmet manufacturers must be happy right now. Also toilet paper's.

 

[Black_Dragon43]

They're claiming they don't want war. If they don't want war they have to give concessions.

No, if you don't want war, it doesn't mean you're STUPID enough to give in to a bully and make concessions. That's what WEAK people do. The bully doesn't have a right to make such demands in the first place. Needs to know his place. This is precisely why we get ourselves in such situations, because we make concessions. Let's not forget Afghanistan. There will be NO CONCESSIONS made to terrorists and their ilk. None, regardless of the costs.

This is an actual national security issue from the perspective of Russians.
They don't see themselves as the aggressors, they are neutralizing threats.

This is impossible. Putin knows exactly what he's doing. He's re-establishing the old Soviet Empire. He isn't neutralizing threats... there are no threats to Russia. No one has ever prepared to attack Russia. No one. The US is more worried about China. Europe doesn't have an army. What the hell is Putin reasonably worried about? Nothing.

He's not a stupid man. He knows no one will attack Russia in the next 100 years from the West if he just keeps the status quo. But he has been preparing for years to attack. Knowingly. And it isn't defense. No, from the 2000s he had the goal of re-establishing the old Soviet Empire and building an army. So there is no mystery about it.

And I can't believe that you out of all people can fall for Putin's rhetoric and believe ANYTHING that comes out of his mouth.

 

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[Fox]

This is moving fast.

Chernobyl is like an hour and a half drive from Kyiv.
I took the Chernobyl tour before and it was an easy spin up there.

Basically, they are within very easy driving distance from the capital already.

 

[Black_Dragon43]

Shit, with this attitude, I wouldn't even want you in charge of a boy scout troop, let alone the US military

And that's why we are where we are... because we don't have folks like me in power. Our weakness is our undoing. We have all the resources and might in the world, but they are useless if we lack the leadership to use them.

 

[Speed112]

No, if you don't want war, it doesn't mean you're STUPID enough to give in to a bully and make concessions. That's what WEAK people do. The bully doesn't have a right to make such demands in the first place. Needs to know his place. This is precisely why we get ourselves in such situations, because we make concessions. Let's not forget Afghanistan. There will be NO CONCESSIONS made to terrorists and their ilk. None, regardless of the costs.

This is impossible. Putin knows exactly what he's doing. He's re-establishing the old Soviet Empire. He isn't neutralizing threats... there are no threats to Russia. No one has ever prepared to attack Russia. No one. The US is more worried about China. Europe doesn't have an army. What the hell is Putin reasonably worried about? Nothing.

He's not a stupid man. He knows no one will attack Russia in the next 100 years from the West if he just keeps the status quo. But he has been preparing for years to attack. Knowingly. And it isn't defense. No, from the 2000s he had the goal of re-establishing the old Soviet Empire and building an army. So there is no mystery about it.

And I can't believe that you out of all people can fall for Putin's rhetoric and believe ANYTHING that comes out of his mouth.

What? Lol...

I've not heard anything that has come out of Putin's mouth for years. I don't consume media or propaganda from either side. This is just basic historical and geopolitical analysis. I don't know what's in Putin's head and I don't care. This isn't about Putin and what he wants, this is about the greater context.

Why is there the goal to re-establish the old Soviet Empire? Why did the Soviet Empire expand to those lengths in the first place? It's all Geography... terrain, population, resources, political adversaries.

It's defense. Proactive defense, but defense nonetheless... from their perspective. Obviously if you're a Ukrainian minding your own business you're being aggressed. But the boundaries were very clearly set, the conditions were established, if negotiations fall through then force will be used to realize them. Even if it's vanity, it doesn't matter.

War is nothing more but an extension of political discourse with other means, after all.

As for Afghanistan... You need to stop using that as an example it really shows how little you know about the political situation of the area. But this is a thread on Ukraine so I won't get into that.

 

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[nothingness]

There's some talk of US Biolabs in the places in Ukraine that Putin bombed last night... Conspiracy or fact? Snopes it out in full force but the whole covid situation showed us the truth is usually nearer to the opposite of what Snopes says: Ukraine, US Biolabs, and an Ongoing Russian Disinformation Campaign

The original guy who unveiled all this got his twitter suspended for it..

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496813904558800896

View: https://twitter.com/ProjectMememar/status/1496813904558800896/photo/1

 

[Itizn]

Russia underestimated Ukraine

 

[loop101]

What if Russia picked one commodity, and only sold it for Bitcoin? Not oil or gas, something expendable, like fertilizer or turbines. Once they had the infrastructure to support Bitcoin, there would always be the threat they could destroy the US Dollar without necessarily destroying their own economy. China could do the same thing with a minor export.

I doubt Russia will be expelled from the Swift financial system, because too many European countries need to conduct business with them. But if they were, a decentralized currency would be an obvious alternative.

 

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[WJK]

It’s not looking good. Like @Itizn said, Taiwan is in danger as well.

Xi and Putin are friends. A China and Russia relationship seems likely.

While the west argues over who can use which bathrooms, those countries are rolling tanks through cities and blowing shit up.

You're right.

But, this move by Russia will realign a bunch of the world. Hopefully, it will wake up the EU from delusions of grandeur. They, as an alliance, have been playing both sides of the fence for a long time.

Germany's big dream was a global ruling system by a centralized government from Berlin. They're still feeling the sting of losing WWII and their history of spawning the Natzis. They've been running the EU for a long time. And they've been fighting the rise of tribalism and nationalism in the other EU members. The UK's exit has inspired others to rebel.

Russia and China have been at each other's throats for centuries. (China is today going after the descendants of the people (the Uyghur population) who invaded China centuries ago from that direction.) The Huns, who are in control today, were also invaders.

This alliance will be short-lived and Russia is going to get the worst of it. Their economy is the size of our State of Texas. China will try to tell them what to do -- so it's going to be an interesting short romance. China does need Russia's oil. And Russia is an oil well with a national flag. But, each has an autocrat who will try to one-up the other, after there is a short honeymoon of tolerance. This relationship is based upon the idea that your enemy's enemy is your best friend and biggest weapon.

So, after saying all of this, we're going to hunker down and keep on stepping...

 

[David Fitz]

Just seen that Europe heavily relies on Russian energy resources. If they cut that off we're screwed.

 

[WJK]

Just seen that Europe heavily relies on Russian energy resources. If they cut that off we're screwed.

Yes, you are. Germany is 60% dependent. The balance of the EU is 40%.

 

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[MTF]

This is moving fast.

Chernobyl is like an hour and a half drive from Kyiv.
I took the Chernobyl tour before and it was an easy spin up there.

Basically, they are within very easy driving distance from the capital already.

Russian troops have been at the airport 25 km from Kyiv for many hours already (airlifted by helicopters to capture the airport) so technically they're already in the capital.

Russia underestimated Ukraine

There's been a correction since:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496928031474171905

View: https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1496928031474171905


Still fighting.

 

[Black_Dragon43]

Why is there the goal to re-establish the old Soviet Empire? Why did the Soviet Empire expand to those lengths in the first place? It's all Geography... terrain, population, resources, political adversaries.

Well, ideally Putin would like to conquer and rule the whole world. Imagine that. The glory. Would be the new Alexander the Great in his mind.

But that’s far fetched.

Same for Stalin, same for all leaders and autocrats really.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

The glory.

Reminds me of the end of Game of Thrones.

There's not much glory in conquering everything, leaving a bunch of destruction in your wake, and then looking at all your new subjects who hate your guts.

--
you know what's scarier than Biden in WW3? Kamala Harris in WW3.

 

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[DayIFly]

Their economy is the size of our State of Texas.

The number that is used in this comparison is calculated using market exchange rates. If you factor in purchasing power parity, then you'll see that Russia isn't as small as you think. Raw GDP is also a poor measure of geopolitical power.

This is not directly addressed at you, I saw it a couple of times mentioned, but Russia isn't on the brink of demographic collapse, a decrease of 7-10% by 2050 isn't as dramatic as it appears, they'll still be the most populous country in Europe.

Well, ideally Putin would like to conquer and rule the whole world. Imagine that. The glory. Would be the new Alexander the Great in his mind.

But that’s far fetched.

Same for Stalin, same for all leaders and autocrats really.

That makes the world really easy in your mind, doesn't it? xD

 

[loop101]

Ukraine gave up their nukes, and got invaded. I doubt any nation will ever give up their nukes again.

 

[Mathuin]

The unvaxinated are to blame for this.

 

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[Antifragile]

And I can't believe that you out of all people can fall for Putin's rhetoric and believe ANYTHING that comes out of his mouth.

Hate to say it, but it seems you’ve got CNN or FOX tuned in too much. It’s not as “black and white” as you seem to paint it.

 

[Antifragile]

It’s not about easy… I know how guys like Putin think. If he could, he would try to conquer the world. Why did Alexander the Great go conquering all the way to India? His goal was to conquer the world, to be the greatest. Hitler, Putin, Xi, Napoleon are/were not much different.

This is a reasonable position. But your posts about USA bombing Moscow is what makes me disagree with you. Imagine your attitude during the Cuban missile crisis!!! Holy shit man.

 

[Hadrian]

It’s not about easy… I know how guys like Putin think. If he could, he would try to conquer the world. Why did Alexander the Great go conquering all the way to India? His goal was to conquer the world, to be the greatest. Hitler, Putin, Xi, Napoleon are/were not much different.

I agree with the sentiment and understand how infuriating it is when people think you can appease fascist dictators...

Whats needed is a harsh but measured military response... eliminating or driving back every Russian Soldier/Paramilitary/Special Forces/terrorist/proxy/Spy within Europes borders back to Russia... then a real solution would be needed to see how many people within Europes Eastern borders actually want to be in Russia.. because thats a thorny issue no one seems eager to talk about!

Whats even more important is to know that this isnt an event... its a process, designed to redraw the entire world order, and as bad as Biden is if it were the compromised Trump and the religious loony tunes back in the White house they would be saying one thing in public but rolling out the red carpet for Putin in private...

 

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[Vas87]

It’s not looking good. Like @Itizn said, Taiwan is in danger as well.

Xi and Putin are friends. A China and Russia relationship seems likely.

While the west argues over who can use which bathrooms, those countries are rolling tanks through cities and blowing shit up.

China would need to launch a landing force bigger than D-Day to get into Taiwan. Plus Taiwan's terrain is not a flat plain like Ukraine. A lot harder than rolling tanks over a border.

 

[Black_Dragon43]

This is a reasonable position. But your posts about USA bombing Moscow is what makes me disagree with you. Imagine your attitude during the Cuban missile crisis!!! Holy shit man.

You don’t understand. Those were different times. Back then you had no clue what the other guy was doing. You could become paranoid and starting shooting nukes. Now you know everything.

This fragile generation raised on the philosophy of the 60s isn’t capable to deal with the threat of the present.

Yes, I would have bombed key military targets from Moscow. I would have made it clear that the door to dialogue is open, but there will be no aggression if dialogue is to take place. And any aggression from Russia will be met in kind. No “if American soldiers shoot against Russian, that’s WW3” as Biden said. If you say that, ofc Putin is going to intimidate you. Because he sees you’re a coward who will never pull the trigger! Biden literarily told Putin that he will never pull the trigger… of course Putin will do what he wants. To deter Putin you have to show him that you’re insane and willing to do whatever it takes to stop him. Just like he does, by the way.

Now Putin dared to threaten anyone who intervenes in his invasion with soemthing that they have never seen historically - ie nukes. I would take that very seriously and immediately call his bluff if I was the US President - I’d get him to task and warn him that if he dares threaten the US again and speak in those words, Russia will be met with the full force of American army, as there are no excuses for ANYONE to threaten the US or its allies. And no excuses will be tolerated.

 

[Ing]

Would it be a democratic nation, defending the democrathy anywhere in the world, every invasion would be ok! ( sounds familiar?)
As for example some nation went to Serbia and distributed their nuclear waste in form of uranium projectiles in Serbia and Croatia.
Without googling I could remember some more examples in the last 50 years.

Is a political discussion thread necessary in a first class entrepreneurial forum.

Edith: I m infinitely sad about that war and I hope it will take a good end for all people involved.

 

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[DayIFly]

It’s not about easy… I know how guys like Putin think. If he could, he would try to conquer the world. Why did Alexander the Great go conquering all the way to India? His goal was to conquer the world, to be the greatest. Hitler, Putin, Xi, Napoleon are/were not much different.

Not even historians can agree upon exactly what the goals of Alexander the Great were, but you know apparently... Your statements are more like caricatures of complex personalities and situations.

 

[GSF]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496845105428193286

View: https://twitter.com/UkraineNews0/status/1496845105428193286?s=20&t=8LtMt6NDcxVbII2xNa_g6w

 

[AndreaB]

Hate to say it, but it seems you’ve got CNN or FOX tuned in too much. It’s not as “black and white” as you seem to paint it.

finally has said something realistic!

 

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[WJK]

The number that is used in this comparison is calculated using market exchange rates. If you factor in purchasing power parity, then you'll see that Russia isn't as small as you think. Raw GDP is also a poor measure of geopolitical power.

This is not directly addressed at you, I saw it a couple of times mentioned, but Russia isn't on the brink of demographic collapse, a decrease of 7-10% by 2050 isn't as dramatic as it appears, they'll still be the most populous country in Europe.


That makes the world really easy in your mind, doesn't it? xD

They have a lot of oil -- BUT... I used to own an oil lease, and I went to an oil conference a few years ago in Denver, CO. One of the speakers had just come from a trip to Russia. Their biggest oil field was overpumped. It needed to rest to regenerate itself. It had water intrusion. Russia's management decisions are from the top down. They didn't ask the guys working out in that field what to do. So, they brought in water pumps to get rid of the water out of their wells. That's exactly the WRONG thing to do. It can ruin the oil purculation forever replacing it with water

Putin gets a cut of every barrel of oil produced. He's way more than rich.

 

[Simon Angel]