The Ukraine War, implications, outcome?

[Antifragile]

Seriously, Zelensky needs to surrender immediately.

If I remember reading correctly just now, NATO has said they're not going to send troops into Ukraine. That means Ukraine is fighting Russia alone and let's be realistic about this, they're not going to win. The longer Zelensky tries to "hold on" and perservere, it's only going to get more innocent Ukrainians killed.

Screw all that patriotism and ideals. Those crap mean nothing if people are dying.

Sadly … yes. Russia is too big for Ukraine alone. And no one else is coming. Putin knows this and counts on this.

 

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[Fox]

The "West" lets-invite-this-to-happen-to-us starter pack:

- Go woke
- Lock everyone down
- Have losers as leaders
- Have a culture that makes people soft AF
- Promote zero fitness, critical thinking or self-responsibility
- Lose all credibility in your government, media, and institutions
- Outsource your energy supply and essential manufacturing overseas
- Turn the army into a trendy political statement instead of an actually feared force

It is terrible Ukraine has to be the place where this kicks off but eventually Russia or China was going to do something like this. Europe, America, and Canada are looking like soft targets atm.

 

[Trevor Kuntz]

Is America today, similar to Russia in the 1940s, in the sense that their experienced military leaders were purged due to politics (during the 1920s and 1930s) - leaving them very weak during the next war?

I don't see Gen Mark Milley instilling fear in anybody, much less Putin or Xi.

Probably less like 1930s Russia and more like 1930s Third Republic France. You don't really know who your effective leaders really are until shit hits in the fan. War exercises can give you some idea of competency (don't look up Millennium Challenge 2002 )

That said, general staff are extremely important. Gen. Marshall was way more important in WWII than any of the more famous battlefield generals like Patton.

So hopefully shit doesn't hit the fan.

 

[MTF]

The "West" lets-invite-this-to-happen-to-us starter pack:

- Go woke
- Lock everyone down
- Have losers as leaders
- Have a culture that makes people soft AF
- Promote zero fitness, critical thinking or self-responsibility
- Lose all credibility in your government, media, and institutions
- Outsource your energy supply and essential manufacturing overseas
- Turn the army into a trendy political statement instead of an actually feared force

It is terrible Ukraine has to be the place where this kicks off but eventually Russia or China was going to do something like this. Europe, America, and Canada are looking like soft targets atm.

While I agree with some of these, it's sort of like saying that a girl wearing a mini skirt invited a rapist to rape her.

 

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[Antifragile]

One more thing. I send money to my family in Ukraine regularly. This is now a major problem too. Banks limit how much you can withdraw and local currency is in free fall. No USD is available for receipt either.

I’m looking for alternative methods. If any of the locals reading this have a method, please PM me. I’ll try checking this thread but may miss it.

 

[Antti]

Seriously, Zelensky needs to surrender immediately.

If I remember reading correctly just now, NATO has said they're not going to send troops into Ukraine. That means Ukraine is fighting Russia alone and let's be realistic about this, they're not going to win. The longer Zelensky tries to "hold on" and perservere, it's only going to get more innocent Ukrainians killed.

Screw all that patriotism and ideals. Those crap mean nothing if people are dying.

That's all true but then Ukraine will be a Russian puppet state for the foreseeable future. If they want to stay independent the only option is to fight back and try to inflict casualties on Russians. Steady stream of Russian soldiers going back home in bodybags can turn public opinion against Putin surprisingly quickly.

 

[Fox]

While I agree with some of these, it's sort of like saying that a girl wearing a mini skirt invited a rapist to rape her.

Well, you have:

- A president who can't string a sentence together
- A prime minister who needs to evoke emergency wartime laws to deal with a little protest
- A Europe that locked itself down to an insane level for two years and mostly cares about climate control

These are not strong, inspiring, intimidating leaders.

Russia and China are playing for keeps.
They can't be cancelled or shamed - you keep them in check with pure strength. Or you don't.

They spotted an opportunity and they took it.
I'm definitely not saying it's right, just that who was there to stop it?

Meanwhile, we are sitting around wondering if a dude can compete in a woman's swimming competition.

 

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[CharlesFinley]

Interesting Ukraine theory from an insta-banned twitter account:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496745429672857602

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/warclandestine/status/1496745429672857602

Thread by @WarClandestine on Thread Reader App

@WarClandestine: 1) HOLY SHIT! I think I may be onto something about #Ukraine. Zelensky said the Russians are firing at “military installations”. How broad is that term? I am seeing speculation that could include US...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

While I agree with some of these, it's sort of like saying that a girl wearing a mini skirt invited a rapist to rape her.

it's not her fault, but I would still like to see her carry something to defend herself with.

It does no good to watch someone being raped and say "hey don't worry, at least it's not your fault."

If a burglar breaks into my house and murders me, it's their fault. But I still want to be prepared, because I like being alive.

 

[doster.zach]

The real threat.

 

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[Guest-5ty5s4]

View attachment 42289

The real threat.

Wow, talk about tone deaf and messed up. Who tweets this while people are being bombed in a foreign country? Damn.

Maybe they were being satirical as well??

 

[Black_Dragon43]

Exactly why Putin is fine. There is a bunch of morons screaming "economic sanctions!!!". So what? Russia + China have everything they need now. China over the past 50 years grew from mostly in poverty to only 1% of population being below poverty line. They have enough. Taiwan is next.

The difference is that neither Putin, nor Xi, nor anyone else wants a hot war. No one wants a WW III. It's too hard on every country, even remote countries like the USA.

These dictators are VERY scared for their lives. If the US threatened Putin with retaliation and even retaliated by taking out key targets in Moscow, they would back down. INSTANTLY. Putin is not insane. He doesn't want to lose his life, even if that means the end of the world.

But he laughs at sanctions. Money doesn't matter to him. He's already readied his economy for sanctions.

 

[Johnny boy]

I am no geopolitical expert, but...

I don't really see anyone talking about this...

America planted a pro-NATO leader in 2014.

It would be like if China planted a pro-Chinese leader in Puerto rico and they wanted to team up which would lead to china putting military bases there...

We would say "wtf?" And not allow that to happen.

That is what Putin is doing, he is not allowing that to happen. Russia and Ukraine are brothers. He is pulling them back in so he can use it as a buffer against the west and not allow NATO encroachment.

Put a heavy buildup on current NATO countries in case anything happens like a surprise attack (which I highly doubt but it's an insurance policy), let Russia have Ukraine, and stop F*cking with other countries so much. That's what the US should do. It is a surprise to see Putin actually do something, but it still makes total sense.

I will not argue with any of you about this, just fyi.

Eyes are glued to see what 21st century war actually looks like. Fascinating stuff and we are living through some interesting times. I am going to enjoy my current freedoms, keep growing my business, and try to be prepared for bad times. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst. We have not yet seen any real death compared to what the 20th century saw.



social media + war = hilarious sign of the times

 

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[doster.zach]

Wow, talk about tone deaf and messed up. Who tweets this while people are being bombed in a foreign country? Damn.

Maybe they were being satirical as well??

No they weren't.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496723469890949127

View: https://twitter.com/DanaHoule/status/1496723469890949127

 

[Black_Dragon43]

Putin only understands force. Unless the West retaliates with MASSIVE FORCE against him, he will not stop. And he's not stopping with Ukraine. In his own words, the Eastern countries that joined NATO did so illegitimately, so he's going to seek to take over Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, Poland at minimum.

Not to mention that Xi is sitting and taking notes... and Xi is a far greater danger than Putin in the longer run.

 

[woken]

Interesting Ukraine theory from an insta-banned twitter account:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496745429672857602

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/warclandestine/status/1496745429672857602

Thread by @WarClandestine on Thread Reader App

@WarClandestine: 1) HOLY SHIT! I think I may be onto something about #Ukraine. Zelensky said the Russians are firing at “military installations”. How broad is that term? I am seeing speculation that could include US...…

threadreaderapp.com

When you also take THIS into consideration then the whole narrative changes. Paint Putin as the bad guy for somebody else’s F*ck ups.

Not taking sides here, I do not want any war, we are just chatting.

 

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[Johnny boy]

Putin only understands force. Unless the West retaliates with MASSIVE FORCE against him, he will not stop. And he's not stopping with Ukraine. In his own words, the Eastern countries that joined NATO did so illegitimately, so he's going to seek to take over Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, Poland at minimum.

Not to mention that Xi is sitting and taking notes... and Xi is a far greater danger than Putin in the longer run.

Time to sell a "how to avoid the draft" course

 

[Kybalion]

Time to sell a "how to avoid the draft" course

it's funny cuz it's true - this is a real concern of mine

 

[Trevor Kuntz]

If the US threatened Putin with retaliation and even retaliated by taking out key targets in Moscow, they would back down. INSTANTLY. Putin is not insane. He doesn't want to lose his life, even if that means the end of the world.

Ah, brilliant strategy. I'm sure there would be no major consequences to striking targets in the capital city of a country with 6200 land-based warheads, nuclear subs in the ocean, and smallpox in its freezers.

 

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[Trevor Kuntz]

Time to sell a "how to avoid the draft" course

I've been whacking my foot with a metal rod for the last week, so hopefully I'll develop some bone spurs ASAP

 

[Speed112]

I am no geopolitical expert, but...

I don't really see anyone talking about this...

America planted a pro-NATO leader in 2014.

It would be like if China planted a pro-Chinese leader in Puerto rico and they wanted to team up which would lead to china putting military bases there...

We would say "wtf?" And not allow that to happen.

That is what Putin is doing, he is not allowing that to happen. Russia and Ukraine are brothers. He is pulling them back in so he can use it as a buffer against the west and not allow NATO encroachment.

Put a heavy buildup on current NATO countries in case anything happens like a surprise attack (which I highly doubt but it's an insurance policy), let Russia have Ukraine, and stop f*cking with other countries so much. That's what the US should do. It is a surprise to see Putin actually do something, but it still makes total sense.

I will not argue with any of you about this, just fyi.

Eyes are glued to see what 21st century war actually looks like. Fascinating stuff and we are living through some interesting times. I am going to enjoy my current freedoms, keep growing my business, and try to be prepared for bad times. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst. We have not yet seen any real death compared to what the 20th century saw.

View attachment 42287

social media + war = hilarious sign of the times

View attachment 42288

Yes, this is very apt. It was the same with Georgia. The reason there are separatists is because, if the state doesn't have geographical integrity, they are ineligible to join NATO. So if you don't want a nation to join NATO you'd fund and support separatists and destabilize their national integrity.

Ironically... this has kinda led to a stronger national spirit in Ukraine and more support/resistance that makes invasion more difficult. If they just wanted to invade they would have done it in 2014 when they had more manpower and resources and the opposition was less prepared.

This would be a very costly (potentially suicidal) war for Russia. Hence it's just "a military operation". We'll have to see how things develop.

I'm not taking sides here, but it's important to look at the historical context and understand who is the aggressor and why things are happening. It's not as simple as "The US has no balls and Putin is an imperialist a**hole."

 

[Antifragile]

I've been whacking my foot with a metal rod for the last week, so hopefully I'll develop some bone spurs ASAP

Might as well throw in "rich daddy" to make those bone spurs more "real".

 

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[StrikingViper69]

Seriously, Zelensky needs to surrender immediately.

If I remember reading correctly just now, NATO has said they're not going to send troops into Ukraine. That means Ukraine is fighting Russia alone and let's be realistic about this, they're not going to win. The longer Zelensky tries to "hold on" and perservere, it's only going to get more innocent Ukrainians killed.

Screw all that patriotism and ideals. Those crap mean nothing if people are dying.

Ukraine is outnumbered between 2-1 and 3-1, which for a defending nation, if they have good plans etc, is actually realistic to defend and win. Recent conflicts have shown defending nations face much greater numbers and obliterate the attackers.

It depends on lots of variables, but it's not outside the realm of possibility that Ukraine fights them off.

 

[DayIFly]

I tried to understand the geopolitics behind it. It seems like Russia doesn't want the Ukraine to become a member of NATO, because for them NATO is an extension of US influence. And coincidentally, new military bases seem to be strategically placed in such a way that in the future they would provide the US with first strike capabilities with the European nations as a shield. Russian missiles would need to fly over the ocean, but American ones are placed at their border and would arrive in minutes. Which would make them a vassal state negotiation-wise. If this is the long-term outlook for them, I honestly don't see any other option than what they're doing now. Or am I wrong?

 

[Antifragile]

If any of you understand Russian, I highly recommend watching Putin speak to Russians. He comes off very sincere and convincing.

 

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[BizyDad]

The "West" lets-invite-this-to-happen-to-us starter pack:

- Go woke
- Lock everyone down
- Have losers as leaders
- Have a culture that makes people soft AF
- Promote zero fitness, critical thinking or self-responsibility
- Lose all credibility in your government, media, and institutions
- Outsource your energy supply and essential manufacturing overseas
- Turn the army into a trendy political statement instead of an actually feared force

It is terrible Ukraine has to be the place where this kicks off but eventually Russia or China was going to do something like this. Europe, America, and Canada are looking like soft targets atm.

I agree with your assessment in all respects except one. America is no soft target.

There might not be sufficient American appetite to go fight another war on foreign soil, but within these borders we have something like 5 guns for every citizen. Russia and China know this, just like Japan knew it in WWII. The world's largest armed militia lives here.

This is why Ukraine suspended the ban on guns. Problem with that is it is "too late" to get enough guns to everyone who needs one. This further justifies the value and importance of our 2nd Amendment.

Historically, America has been slow to engage in European conflicts. This situation isn't all that different, we are not any "weaker" than we were pre-WWI (when we were also embroiled in civil rights, class, and economic struggles) or II (when we were also economically in disarray). We stood back in several other European land wars as well.

I suspect an invasion of Canada would shock the American consciousness into action, so they are safe. For better or worse, to commit American troops to Europe or Asia will take more devastation. Putin and Xi know this, so I don't expect a blitzkrieg style assault on many regions.

More likely a strategy of take a little here, wait for a new President, take a little more, wait for a new President. Meanwhile sow disinformation and fund political dissent on all sides of the aisle every western political cycle so we continue to argue with ourselves, and never take a big enough action that the US populace decides to stop fighting themselves and decides to put a stop to it.

Crimea was the first step. This is the second.

 

[Fox]

I agree with your assessment in all respects except one. America is no soft target.

There might not be sufficient American appetite to go fight another war on foreign soil, but within these borders we have something like 5 guns for every citizen. Russia and China know this, just like Japan knew it in WWII. The world's largest armed militia lives here.

I meant soft on the world stage - America would only fall from within.

 

[Speed112]

Another thing people are not bringing up is the implications of a couple obvious things:

Why is the US and Western media agitating the war?

All Biden had to do to pacify Russia in this conflict was give Putin in writing that Ukraine will not join NATO. They only gave vague verbal promises but never committed. It's obvious why Putin doesn't trust that. There have been negotiations for a long time. They keep falling through ever since The US meddled with Russia's diplomatic approach to Ukraine (they basically deposed by proxy the pro-Russian leadership in 2014). The Minsk agreements failed to be implemented...

People ask why Putin suddenly invaded. It wasn't sudden at all. This has been in the works for 8 years, and now he ran out of patience after negotiations led nowhere. The only bargaining chip the EU and US have that Putin and his supporters care about are the Nord Stream Pipeline. First phase successfully completed, which gave Putin courage to press his claims. This is Germany's responsibility as much as the US for dialing back their nuclear and coal production and becoming overly-reliant on Russian gas. Phase 2 was getting along pretty well, too...

It's only now, after the attack, that Biden declared and got the Germans to agree that Nord Stream is dead. This is THE only sanction that Putin can possibly care about given their geo-economic situation.

Why only now? Does Biden not have negotiators? They're not pushing back, nor making concessions. To me it looks a lot like Russia is being baited into overextending and collapsing at the expense of many Ukrainian (and possibly Baltic/Polish/Romanian) lives. For the sake of the military-industrial-complex as their Middle-Eastern interest and influence have waned (Shale Oil anyone?) as well as the Cold War legacy.

Then there's Demographics.

Russia, and even more seriously China, are approaching imminent demographic collapse. They're the fastest declining populations on the planet. Russian ethnicity itself is in danger, so it makes a lot of sense that Putin would want to expand his reach over Russians from abroad. Moreso, militarily it's a huge consideration because Russian military leadership is retiring and manpower is dwindling. There is no youth to replace their ranks. They don't have enough boots on the ground to patrol their western border, let alone defend their territory against the perceived external threats. If they want to do anything with their military, it will have to be now, and it will have to involve an increase in manpower to maintain their defense capabilities... Hence, taking Crimea.

Russia has to export its local issues along with its natural gas. I believe this has to do with more than just maintaining a buffer between the motherland and NATO. Expect desperate attempts to expand into NATO within a few years. It's what Empires do when they're struggling and on their last legs...

All of this will come at great cost for the local population. It remains to be seen how they will react. They're already protesting and Putin has the lowest support he's had. He needs a victory to embolden the struggling populace and maintain control while he pushes forward. A civil war would be disastrous.

What are the implications?

Russia has to go to war. There's no escaping inflation, so Europe probably has to go to war too, but Merkel was a diplomatic genius managing to hold everything together, but it has come with complications now. The US doesn't have to do anything, but they're pushing for the war anything, because people suffering thousands of miles away is profitable for some. Disaster. It's almost like we've learned nothing from history, hmm...

...All of this is bad for business. Value destruction from all parties. Thanks Government.

 

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[srodrigo]

Instead what Biden should have done is said that ONE Russian soldier over Ukraine’s border means war with America.

Yeah, the US are very good at organising wars FAR AWAY from their land. The US shouldn't have a word here, Europe should build their own army to keep Putin and other nuts cold feet, leave the NATO and sort out their own problems. No one in Europe wants a war here, apart from Biden and Putin. Next war the Americans want, in Washington, please. Or in Moscow, I don't care. But leave the rest of the world alone.

Putin is a mad man and has no excuse for invading Ukraine, but the US pushing to put even more missiles at his doors only had one possible outcome, and they knew. Good to boost the weapons business in times of crisis.

what if Ukraine had looked to Russia and build friendly ties with them

That's what the Maidan was for, to place a pro-US government.

new military bases seem to be strategically placed in a such a way that in the future they would provide the US with first strike capabilities with the European nations as a shield. Russian missiles would need to fly over the ocean, but American ones are placed at their border and would arrive in minutes.

Exactly.

I really hope this shit won't spiral out of control. We Europeans are the fools of the world in many ways, specially to host wars we don't need.

 

[Black_Dragon43]

All Biden had to do to pacify Russia in this conflict was give Putin in writing that Ukraine will not join NATO.

Are you CRAZY? Why would we do that?! Why would we give any concession to Russia and China?

Again, America is the world’s superpower. America sets the rules. China and Russia should be the ones making concessions.

Russia, and even more seriously China, are approaching imminent demographic collapse.

you’re deluded bro. In Russia and China if 200 million people need to disappear, they disappear. It’s not a problem.