Random Chat, Thoughts, Posts, and/or Rants Thread

[Antifragile]

@Antifragile is your name from the mental models book?

It’s from the Nassim Taleb’s book, by the same name. I don’t enjoy the author’s style (smug, iconoclast) but loved the concept of anti-fragility.

 

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[Itizn]

Be crazy

 

[MoneyDoc]

Kellogg Splitting Into Three Companies as It Shifts Focus to Global Snacks​

Food company plans to create separate cereal, snack and plant-based food companies​

Interesting that they are not going the acquisition route but I think this was a smart move. Sometimes acquiring just to be "big" doesn't really pay off. Just look at Dollar Shave Club. Unilever's CEO is now calling the acquisition as a failure.

 

[GPM]

Kellogg Splitting Into Three Companies as It Shifts Focus to Global Snacks​

Food company plans to create separate cereal, snack and plant-based food companies​

Interesting that they are not going the acquisition route but I think this was a smart move. Sometimes acquiring just to be "big" doesn't really pay off. Just look at Dollar Shave Club. Unilever's CEO is now calling the acquisition as a failure.

Maybe unrelated, but while walking down the cereal isle yesterday there were hardly any Kellogs products, and a large sign apologizing and saying that there were some contract issues or some such. My kids just wanted some Shreddies lol.

 

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[MoneyDoc]

Maybe unrelated, but while walking down the cereal isle yesterday there were hardly any Kellogs products, and a large sign apologizing and saying that there were some contract issues or some such. My kids just wanted some Shreddies lol.

Was it in Loblaws?

They were having problems with Kelloggs over fees.

 

[doster.zach]

 

[MoneyDoc]

Lol never thought I'd experience "jealousy/envy" from close family but I can officially say I have. I always thought those stories were made-up. My cousin called me a drug dealer. The best part of it all, the person they thought I did not know, was the same person that told me the "gossip". I'm laughing and fuming at the same time because what happened to family? This is why I'm distancing myself so much from relatives because strangers are more happy for me than my close relatives (excluding my immediate family - parents/siblings). I actually feel like stopping contact completely. Sad reality.

 

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[GPM]

Lol never thought I'd experience "jealousy/envy" from close family but I can officially say I have. I always thought those stories were made-up. The best part of it all, the person they thought I did not know, was the same person that told me the "gossip". My cousin called me a drug dealer to someone they thought I didn't know. I'm laughing and fuming at the same time because what happened to family? This is why I'm distancing myself so much from relatives because strangers are more happy for me than my close relatives (excluding my immediate family - parents/siblings). I actually feel like stopping contact completely. Sad reality.

Ouch, I am sorry to here that man. Sometimes family are the hardest ones at times. Any measure of success and they think it's an attack on them. Stay tough!

 

[Kak]

Lol never thought I'd experience "jealousy/envy" from close family but I can officially say I have. I always thought those stories were made-up. My cousin called me a drug dealer. The best part of it all, the person they thought I did not know, was the same person that told me the "gossip". I'm laughing and fuming at the same time because what happened to family? This is why I'm distancing myself so much from relatives because strangers are more happy for me than my close relatives (excluding my immediate family - parents/siblings). I actually feel like stopping contact completely. Sad reality.

Miserable assholes man. Don’t let them get to you.

 

[biophase]

I'm back!

Been away from the forum for literally 2 months now (I think). Needed a mental break. Still not 100%, but I don't think there's any point in not conversing with people. You guys are the only ones that resonate so much with me, so I think I'll be doing myself a favour by being active again.

Let me start with a mini rant (@Antifragile - you're on the vendor side, so maybe you can chime in through a "human" lens rather than a developer lens).

Remember that pre-construction unit I bought WAY back in 2019? It was on my e-commerce progress thread when my business was just off the ground. Tied myself up to a pre-construction unit in literally the best place in Toronto (Hospital Row/Financial District/Law). Anyway, last deposit was due last week. So now I have $250k CAD tied up which is good IMO as if I didn't get the unit back then, I'm sure the money would've been spent elsewhere. So I got a delay notice email recently because we had the union strikes in Ontario and COVID is still causing supply delays (tiles, cabinets, etc). The building was originally supposed to complete in 2025 (which is already 6 years from 2019...) but is likely going to get delayed by another 1-2 years. Now, could I use the $250k now and make 5x that in the next 4-5 years? Hell yeah I can... opportunity cost is very high right now and I kinda regret being "stuck".

Long story short, I personally emailed the developer CEO/Owner. They are a generational development family that literally owns every valuable piece of land in Toronto. Now here's the "ask". Keep in mind, I know damn well my wants mean nothing to them nor should they mean anything to them. I'm just kinda ranting because from a humanity standpoint, this is something I PERSONALLY would've done if I was in their position and a young entrepreneur reached out to me the way I did to them. So I proposed a structure for them in which they would take my unit back, I would sacrifice a full deposit to them ($60k CAD) for their lost time and the hassle of reselling the unit. Now my specific unit is sold out, and the last asking price was $350k over what I purchased the unit for. My unit also has a 2 year guaranteed lease back ($5k/month for 2 years if I don't live there), so if they did accept my structure, they could've resold the unit higher, received $60k CAD for their time, and they could've removed the guaranteed lease back for the new buyer. So I didn't get a reply from the person I emailed. I got a general email back from the sales team that my request was denied and to make sure I comply with the purchase agreement. Now I didn't really expect much, but I did get pissed off a little bit because not only is it rude to completely ignore someone that emails you, addresses you properly, but forwarding the email to sales and having them reach out is just low class IMO. 1 year ago, I sent a high profile developer, in a building 10x as more prestigious than the one I bought originally (www.onebloorwest.com), a direct email asking if he'll accept my deal structure so I can purchase a unit paying the deposits monthly. The owner (whom I emailed) replied back to me at 10pm on a Saturday night and told me "I would be HAPPY to help you and congratulations on your success and I wish for your business to grow even more". This is what you call being "human" regardless of who you are. It doesn't matter if he was willing to help because I was looking to buy, no high profile building has EVER done monthly deposit instalments. So really, this is the same extent as to my "take back" request for the unit I have in the other building.

Sorry for the rant guys. Needed to get that off my chest as sometimes we forget, we all end up in the grave irregardless if you're a 4th generation $350m+ worth developer (whom by the way, was a product of their great great grandfather) or a solo young first generation entrepreneur learning as you run down your path that is constantly evolving.

I’m in the same boat, but not as bad. I purchased a new home in March 2021, it was supposed to be done in March 2022.

I have $500k deposit with them. It’s looking like a August or September close date. But my contract has a clause that I can back out of the home isn’t done in 18 months. That would be end of September.

I do wonder what I could have done with the $500k in last years housing market. I surely could have bought something and flipped it for $200-$300k since then.

So now I’m just waiting for them to finish. If they go past September I’ll have to decide if I want to just get out of the contract. The upside is that the property is worth about $800k more than I paid. But that is today, who knows what the market will be like in September.

Also it’s a lesson learned, I’m never going to tie up that much money so long again. There were so many other moves I passed on because I had to close on this house.

 

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[MitchC]

They do those clauses in Australia too where you can back out if it’s not competed in time, except the developer can back out too and then they just take ages to build it, back out when the contracts up, give your deposit back and sell the house for way more and you’re back to square one and have to buy in the more expensive market.

 

[loop101]

I didn't realize flying cars were almost here. $93k, and has a 20 minute flight time.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFpgLxqJDQg

 

[Andy Black]

Lol never thought I'd experience "jealousy/envy" from close family but I can officially say I have. I always thought those stories were made-up. My cousin called me a drug dealer. The best part of it all, the person they thought I did not know, was the same person that told me the "gossip". I'm laughing and fuming at the same time because what happened to family? This is why I'm distancing myself so much from relatives because strangers are more happy for me than my close relatives (excluding my immediate family - parents/siblings). I actually feel like stopping contact completely. Sad reality.

I wouldn’t stop contact based on what someone else said they’d said. There’s always an outside chance you’re taking it up wrong. Maybe it was meant as a joke, or maybe they’re just having a bad day. Unlikely, but I just have that rule not to judge people based on what I heard they said. There’s enough chance of misunderstanding between two people talking direct as it is!

 

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[MitchC]

What monitor are people using?

I want the new apple one but I’m thinking I’ll get something way better for the same price from another brand?

It has usb c hub you can plug your MacBook straight into and a built in camera which are features I’d like, plus just a nice big good quality display

 

[Primeperiwinkle]

Dear ENTP,

You've never had a problem "embracing the suck". In fact, you're awesome at that.

Your real problem is embracing BOREDOM.

Snuggle up to that mother and see what you get done!

You're welcome. You sexy beast you.

 

[Aditya Gunjal]

Kinda cool when these unwitting folks who appear in memes are able to monetize it.

Hide the Pain Harold, one of my favorites, is actually quite happy.

Experience: my face became a meme

My wife hated Hide the Pain Harold – until I got paid for a Hungarian TV commercial

www.theguardian.com

I saw a video describing about how these people accidentally became memes but got their way through it and monetuzed it.
Smart template guy, disaster girl, hide the pain Harold all became meme accidentally but got popularized and as we see here monitized their reach.

 

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[Fox]

A part of a talk I had recently with @MJ DeMarco ...

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Just look at Dollar Shave Club. Unilever's CEO is now calling the acquisition as a failure.

Link?

I didn't realize flying cars were almost here. $93k, and has a 20 minute flight time.

Holy shit. Don't let anyone tell you "money can't buy happiness" because this thing looks like a happy-generating machine.

That said, the 20m flight time on this is the dealbreaker for me, as I was *this* close to giving these guys my down payment. It doesn't seem you can do a lot in 20m ... if you're at a park, that's 9 minutes in one direction, and 9 minutes to get back. What happens if you exceed 20m? You fall out of the sky?

Man, I'd love to get one of these, but that flight time has to get up to an hour or so.

 

[MoneyDoc]

Link?

DTC darling Dollar Shave Club was snapped up by Unilever for $1 billion back in 2016. Now insiders, analysts, and even Unilever's CEO are calling it a failure — here's why.

Michael Dubin's Dollar Shave Club was supposed to teach Unilever to sell directly to consumers. INSIDERS say the $1 billion deal hasn't worked out.

www.businessinsider.com

I've pasted the article below for those that don't have a subscription to business INSIDERS as I think it's a great one especially the part where they mention @MJ DeMarco favourite 3 words "F*ck You Money" but with a twist:

Spoiler: Article

DTC darling Dollar Shave Club was snapped up by Unilever for $1 billion back in 2016. Now INSIDERS, analysts, and even Unilever's CEO are calling it a failure — here's why.

In 2016, Unilever paid $1 billion for Dollar Shave Club, expecting to use its size to help the brand grow sales and to reach its millennial customers.

Six years later, it's done neither, according to analysts, company INSIDERS, and CEO Alan Jope.

"Dollar Shave Club did not deliver as expected, and the economics of the DTC model changed," Jope said on the company's fourth-quarter earnings call on Thursday. He added that Unilever also struggled to expand the brand into new product categories.

The Dollar Shave Club deal marked the first time a global consumer-goods maker bought a direct-to-consumer brand, giving credibility to a host of nascent startups.

But former employees, sources close to the company, and industry experts told INSIDERS that the Dollar Shave Club acquisition was unlikely to match Unilever's expectations.

From the acquisition, Unilever made missteps in how it managed the brand, said one source with knowledge of Unilever's acquisition strategy. Unilever waited too long to expand into brick-and-mortar stores, unsuccessfully attempted to stretch the brand beyond shaving products, and underestimated how Dollar Shave Club's high customer acquisition costs would make turning a profit difficult.

Some said Unilever's finance team didn't understand what they were buying. "My question is whether they really poked and prodded enough into it," said a former Unliever employee. "Because selling retail and selling DTC are so different."

"We have been clear that Dollar Shave Club has not delivered the results we were expecting. The economics of the direct-to-consumer channel changed, and we found it harder to unlock non-razor sales than planned," Unilever's press office wrote in a statement to INSIDERS.

"Dollar Shave Club remains a great brand with an excellent product offering, and we are fully committed to stepping up its growth."

Missed red flags, cheap customers, and product bloat​

At the time of the acquisition, Dollar Shave Club was spending a lot more on customer acquisition than it was booking in sales. In order to become profitable, it needed customers to spend more than it cost to acquire them.

Most DTC brands try to balance customer acquisition costs with how much they'll spend within one year, according to a source familiar with the DTC industry. Dollar Shave Club, at the time of the Unilever acquisition, was using a five-year timeline, according to the source. It was a red flag Unilever's finance department might not have known to look out for in 2016.

"They're the only company I've heard of that was looking at it on a five-year basis," said the source.

Following the Unilever acquisition, Dollar Shave Club has added to its lineup a slew of new items at various price points, including a $50-a-bottle cologne, beard oil, bar soap, toothpaste, and toilet wipes called "One Wipe Charlies."

"They thought they'd get a big user base to buy other products to make it work," said one former Unilever executive.

But there was a problem: By offering cheap razors, Dollar Shave Club had attracted a thrifty crowd, many of whom had no interest in paying $50 for cologne.

"You've created the cheapest way to buy razors in the world," said the source familiar with Unilever's acquisition strategy. "You've chosen the Groupon consumer."

Dubin's team and Unilever had different ideas about where to sell those products.

Around the time it was acquired, Dollar Shave Club considered opening physical locations that were part store, part "cool barbershop," according to a source familiar with the brand's plans. The concept was similar to Harry's Corner Shop in New York, a barbershop operated by Dollar Shave Club rival Harry's, which closed in 2018.

After the acquisition, Unilever nixed the idea, according to the source. Instead, Dollar Shave experimented with options such as placing vending machines in malls, until finally entering Target in 2019 and Walmart in 2020.

By the time Dollar Shave Club entered retailers, it was joining the new men's shave brands it had helped pave the way for — most notably, Harry's, co-founded by a Warby Parker alum, which entered Target in 2016.

In July, Dollar Shave Club hired a new chief marketing officer, Johnson & Johnson veteran Kerry Sullivan, who worked on the Neutrogena brand for years.

Sullivan is tasked with overseeing the brand as it rebrands as "DSC" and continues a push into brick-and-mortar retail. In addition to Target and Wal-Mart, Dollar Shave Club is now sold at drugstore chains and grocery stores across the country, including Rite-Aid and Safeway.

Unilever learns the danger of giving founders 'F*ck you money' ​

Dollar Shave Club was paid for entirely in cash. A former Unilever employee described Dubin's upfront payout, said to be $90 million, as "F*ck you money."

In January 2021, Dubin left Dollar Shave's CEO role. Unilever replaced him with Jason Goldberger, the former CEO of kitchen retailer Sur La Table and jewelry brand Blue Nile.

Some Unilever INSIDERS speculated that while Dubin was contractually obligated to stay on as CEO for a period of time, it left him with little incentive to continue growing the business.

After Dubin's payday, Unilever adjusted its acquisition strategy. Sources told INSIDERS the company structured future contracts differently, avoiding massive upfront payouts to founders in favor of scheduling later payments contingent on a brand's future growth.

"The transactions they created afterwards were really structured with a lot of earnout and with a lot less risk upfront," said the source familiar with the company's acquisition strategy.

Since acquiring Dollar Shave, Unilever has made over 25 acquisitions, but none of those brands have been purely direct-to-consumer. "They'd been burned so badly," said a source close to the company.

"We have a good track record of delivery across our major recent acquisitions," the Unilever spokesperson said in a comment, citing 20% growth in the categories the company has invested in heavily since 2015: prestige beauty and supplements. Recent acquisitions include Olly vitamins, Liquid IV hydration supplement, and Paula's Choice skin care.

 

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[Guest-5ty5s4]

Link?



Holy shit. Don't let anyone tell you "money can't buy happiness" because this thing looks like a happy-generating machine.

That said, the 20m flight time on this is the dealbreaker for me, as I was *this* close to giving these guys my down payment. It doesn't seem you can do a lot in 20m ... if you're at a park, that's 9 minutes in one direction, and 9 minutes to get back. What happens if you exceed 20m? You fall out of the sky?

Man, I'd love to get one of these, but that flight time has to get up to an hour or so.

I agree. I'm sure they could do it, but it would need to be bigger and heavier.

 

[Trevor Kuntz]

Most DTC brands try to balance customer acquisition costs with how much they'll spend within one year, according to a source familiar with the DTC industry. Dollar Shave Club, at the time of the Unilever acquisition, was using a five-year timeline, according to the source. It was a red flag Unilever's finance department might not have known to look out for in 2016.

Well, there's the problem! I can't imagine how any company could reliably forecast the 5-year value of any customer and then extrapolate that data to project "profitability" against their acquisition costs. This makes me think Dollar Shave Club would not have survived long-term without being acquired.

 

[MoneyDoc]

Well, there's the problem! I can't imagine how any company could reliably forecast the 5-year value of any customer and then extrapolate that data to project "profitability" against their acquisition costs. This makes me think Dollar Shave Club would not have survived long-term without being acquired.

Yeah which clearly shows that sometimes big corporate retail brands have no idea how DTC eCommerce brands work... how can the finance team for Unilever possibly get away with forecasting the 5 year value of CAC. Back when they made the acquisition, FB ads were MUCH cheaper than what they are now with the new privacy policy, etc. Same reason why Casper is struggling.

Great case study nonetheless and just shows you how different business models for retail and DTC really are.

 

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[Antifragile]

Random thread, random post…

I just tested positive for covid. It’s been kicking my a$$. Aches everywhere, fever. Whole fam is now fighting the same.

 

[MTF]

Random thread, random post…

I just tested positive for covid. It’s been kicking my a$$. Aches everywhere, fever. Whole fam is now fighting the same.

Man you're lighting fast like Internet Explorer. C19 was popular in 2020 and 2021, not now.

Jokes aside, hope it goes away quickly. How's the rest of the family doing mentally with this?

It sounds strange you got it now and particularly in the summer when it's so rare compared to the last two years.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

Man you're lighting fast like Internet Explorer. C19 was popular in 2020 and 2021, not now.

Jokes aside, hope it goes away quickly. How's the rest of the family doing mentally with this?

It sounds strange you got it now and particularly in the summer when it's so rare compared to the last two years.

It's weird - a lot of people are suddenly getting it after a long time of nothing. Why?

 

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[Antifragile]

I know it’s not as big a topic as it used to be. But I never had one, until now @MTF

And it’s not surprising for me, lots of people around us are having or just had it. It’s not like CV19 went anywhere, it just got milder symptoms. Still spreads just fine for a virus.

 

[MTF]

I know it’s not as big a topic as it used to be. But I never had one, until now @MTF

And it’s not surprising for me, lots of people around us are having or just had it. It’s not like CV19 went anywhere, it just got milder symptoms. Still spreads just fine for a virus.

I live like a hermit and almost never meet new people so I tend to forget that others surround themselves with way more people.

Wishing you guys a speedy recovery as it doubly sucks to be sick in the summer.

 

[MoneyDoc]

Random thread, random post…

I just tested positive for covid. It’s been kicking my a$$. Aches everywhere, fever. Whole fam is now fighting the same.

Damn bro... hope you and the family get better soon. Best thing you can do is just rest but I know it's probably hard given you have kids. Hope they pull through fine too.

 

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[Private Witt]

If you live in Brown Recluse spider territory do not play games if see any spiders. I got bit last week and have gone into hell. With medical, lost work, hotel and new deposits for new place gonna cost 5 to 10k. Exploring legal options on the corporate landlord who has history of bad maintenance and aware of this spider infestation for long time. Whole body has become a rash.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

We called this shit years ago.

Pfizer CEO sees annual COVID vaccine rather than frequent boosters

Pfizer Inc Chief Executive Albert Bourla said on Saturday that an annual C0VlD-19 vaccine would be preferable to more frequent booster shots in fighting the coronavirus pandemic.

www.reuters.com

That's right. Annual shots.

$$$

I remember being called crazy for predicting this. "They'd never do that."

"They work."

blah, blah, blah