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WINTER IS COMING: European Winter of '22

FitRay

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People are worried here in Germany, that their homes are cold this winter, but that isn't the real problem. Cold flats are a matter of perspective: Eg. lots of older flats in Spain and Portugal don't have a heating system and when the winter gets cold, inside the flats it's super cold - but that is NORMAL for them. Even though our German winters are colder than the Spanish ones our houses have much better isolation. Even without heating, our homes will be fine. As I said, it's a matter of perspective.

What I'm worried about is the economy - not only the small coffee shops but the big producers of goods, that are shipped worldwide. If they cannot make business, our and the European economy will suffer a lot. 2 local examples from my hometown in Saxony-Anhalt:
a) A big producer of fertilizer that sells their products worldwide needs lots of gas. They stopped their production already. The problem: If this company can't produce the fertilizer, we (Germany) and lots of other countries need to buy fertilizer from other countries (mostly outside Europe) and even Russia! This will increase the prices of food and we create one more dependency.
b) A friend of mine is running a part of his father's company in the mechanical engineering industry (they produce all sorts of industrial screws). Because they also need lots of gas, they didn't receive a new gas contract. It was just a coincidence, that their current contract ended this summer and now they don't get a new contract. This company sells goods to other companies in Germany that they need for their mechanical engineering businesses. But if they don't receive the goods from them they'll start buying them cheaper from ... China, exactly.

The problem isn't, that we are dependent on other countries - for a country that lacks natural resources, it's normal to import that stuff. The problem is, that we were too naive and we didn't set up proper "counter-dependencies" worldwide. We had too much trust in our partners, including Russia. It feels horrible when you trust people and then you are cheated...
 
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originalMJT

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People are worried here in Germany, that their homes are cold this winter, but that isn't the real problem. Cold flats are a matter of perspective: Eg. lots of older flats in Spain and Portugal don't have a heating system and when the winter gets cold, inside the flats it's super cold - but that is NORMAL for them. Even though our German winters are colder than the Spanish ones our houses have much better isolation. Even without heating, our homes will be fine. As I said, it's a matter of perspective.

What I'm worried about is the economy - not only the small coffee shops but the big producers of goods, that are shipped worldwide. If they cannot make business, our and the European economy will suffer a lot. 2 local examples from my hometown in Saxony-Anhalt:
a) A big producer of fertilizer that sells their products worldwide needs lots of gas. They stopped their production already. The problem: If this company can't produce the fertilizer, we (Germany) and lots of other countries need to buy fertilizer from other countries (mostly outside Europe) and even Russia! This will increase the prices of food and we create one more dependency.
b) A friend of mine is running a part of his father's company in the mechanical engineering industry (they produce all sorts of industrial screws). Because they also need lots of gas, they didn't receive a new gas contract. It was just a coincidence, that their current contract ended this summer and now they don't get a new contract. This company sells goods to other companies in Germany that they need for their mechanical engineering businesses. But if they don't receive the goods from them they'll start buying them cheaper from ... China, exactly.

The problem isn't, that we are dependent on other countries - for a country that lacks natural resources, it's normal to import that stuff. The problem is, that we were too naive and we didn't set up proper "counter-dependencies" worldwide. We had too much trust in our partners, including Russia. It feels horrible when you trust people and then you are cheated...
The blame is on Merkle, she did the gas deals with Russia, and filled her own bank accounts at the same time, now she has sailed off into the sunset and Germany is in real trubble now, wont be long before the car factorys have to shut down, BMW, Merc, Audi/VW
 

Ing

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The blame is on Merkle, she did the gas deals with Russia, and filled her own bank accounts at the same time, now she has sailed off into the sunset and Germany is in real trubble now, wont be long before the car factorys have to shut down, BMW, Merc, Audi/VW
The initiator was not Merkel, but Schröder! And its not all bad about these deals!
 
G

Guest-5ty5s4

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I haven't read the book yet, but will do soon.

My guess is that they don't want to save "the planet" (whatever that means). They just want to destroy capitalism. The only way to save humanity is by using more energy, not less.
Bingo. Key: the only solution is producing more energy.
 
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Right possible

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Some scary stuff in the pipeline...

And damn, that's a lot of coffee to sell to just pay that bill.

Hope things turn around fast, because it simply isn't sustainable.
It is looking like Europe is about to get wrecked on power prices...

View attachment 44938


View attachment 44939 View attachment 44940


If these are the new rates, then this is about to wipe small businesses hard.

I asked a friend who has been a risk manager and trader in power for years...

View attachment 44941

Looks like a perfect storm.

What are your guys takes - anyone on here with pro insight into what is likely to happen?
Here in Nigeria we don't get to use our electricity even when we pay for it
 

Kevin88660

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People are worried here in Germany, that their homes are cold this winter, but that isn't the real problem. Cold flats are a matter of perspective: Eg. lots of older flats in Spain and Portugal don't have a heating system and when the winter gets cold, inside the flats it's super cold - but that is NORMAL for them. Even though our German winters are colder than the Spanish ones our houses have much better isolation. Even without heating, our homes will be fine. As I said, it's a matter of perspective.

What I'm worried about is the economy - not only the small coffee shops but the big producers of goods, that are shipped worldwide. If they cannot make business, our and the European economy will suffer a lot. 2 local examples from my hometown in Saxony-Anhalt:
a) A big producer of fertilizer that sells their products worldwide needs lots of gas. They stopped their production already. The problem: If this company can't produce the fertilizer, we (Germany) and lots of other countries need to buy fertilizer from other countries (mostly outside Europe) and even Russia! This will increase the prices of food and we create one more dependency.
b) A friend of mine is running a part of his father's company in the mechanical engineering industry (they produce all sorts of industrial screws). Because they also need lots of gas, they didn't receive a new gas contract. It was just a coincidence, that their current contract ended this summer and now they don't get a new contract. This company sells goods to other companies in Germany that they need for their mechanical engineering businesses. But if they don't receive the goods from them they'll start buying them cheaper from ... China, exactly.

The problem isn't, that we are dependent on other countries - for a country that lacks natural resources, it's normal to import that stuff. The problem is, that we were too naive and we didn't set up proper "counter-dependencies" worldwide. We had too much trust in our partners, including Russia. It feels horrible when you trust people and then you are cheated...
For the first time that makes me feel better living in a hot and humid place all year round.
 

Mikkel

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It looks like European Aluminum manufacturers are near the brink of closure. Once the pots used to produce Aluminum goes back to room temperature, it takes tens of millions of dollars and months to bring Aluminum plants back online.

Aluminum manufacturing is very energy intensive. If these manufacturing plants shut down, this could lead to a further supply shock in Europe that can affect industries including power lines, window frames, electronics, household appliances, aircraft, ships, trains, and automobiles.

To get an idea of how the Aluminum market is unsustainable in a country like Germany, it currently would cost ~$4,200 per ton, last month it reached over $10,000 per ton. Currently, the London Metal Exchange Aluminum futures is $2,300 per ton. Clearly, these manufacturing companies cannot compete. This will just lead to Europe becoming more inefficient once energy prices normalize, as most of the Aluminum companies will go out of business and lead to Europe needing to import Aluminum which will cost more money than producing it within the EU.

Yahoo has a good article on this: HERE
 
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MJ DeMarco

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I just got a notification : electricity will be 54 €cent per KWH in Oktober.
It was about 30 last summer.

80% inflationary increase in reality, but don't worry, your government says its 9%.
 

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If Germany (and the UK) has no heat in homes, won't the water pipes burst?

I am sure Canada gets colder than Germany, so it may not be apples to apples. If the heat goes out here you have to move very fast to get it back up again or your pipes will all freeze and burst. Is that not a worry?

How are the everyday citizens reactinf to this this far? Do any realize that this is a 100% man made emergency?

I should reach out to the Germans in Mexico who left a few years ago to avoid this very situation to see what they think. If I recall correctly, their families all thought they were insane.
 

BizyDad

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I'd love to say "Glad I don't have to be in Europe right now" but have the oddest feeling sh!t like this will be in the U.S. soon. (Didn't california just declare a grid emergency this week after shutting down a bunch of nuclear plants? Ditto for France)
firefox_5gst2QTigD.png
Don't forget the Texas energy crisis last year.


Poor decisions made based on political whims all over the world.
 
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David Fitz

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It is a decade-long slow car crash of terrible policies mixed in with the last two years.

Ireland, for example, has been shutting down lots of its power plants for years to "go green."

Everything with an [1] after its name gets shut down before the end of this year.

View attachment 44943

It is hard to believe a country would every purposely cripple itself with power but there you go.

This comes back to governments making poor decisions and getting zero punishment for these decisions. Imagine the businesses and lives this will cost but these mupppets get away with it and earn some of the highest salaries for politicians worldwide.

The government could step in and stop VAT payments on bills at least but I think all the money spent on covid payments has ruined Ireland and many other countries.
 

StrikingViper69

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If Germany (and the UK) has no heat in homes, won't the water pipes burst?

I am sure Canada gets colder than Germany, so it may not be apples to apples. If the heat goes out here you have to move very fast to get it back up again or your pipes will all freeze and burst. Is that not a worry?

How are the everyday citizens reactinf to this this far? Do any realize that this is a 100% man made emergency?

I should reach out to the Germans in Mexico who left a few years ago to avoid this very situation to see what they think. If I recall correctly, their families all thought they were insane.

From the few people I've talked to, they're blaming big bad energy companies. New UK PM is wanting to cap what energy companies can charge.

What happens when energy costs more to deliver than the power company can charge... ?
 

GPM

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From the few people I've talked to, they're blaming big bad energy companies. New UK PM is wanting to cap what energy companies can charge.

What happens when energy costs more to deliver than the power company can charge... ?
Sounds like a government solution to a government problem. I am sure nothing would ever backfire by doing that!

That is a good way to have companies walk away from assets, have the government nationalize them, and blame the whole thing on greedy capitalists. Nothing bad could ever come from that!
 
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Guest-5ty5s4

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Sounds like a government solution to a government problem. I am sure nothing would ever backfire by doing that!

That is a good way to have companies walk away from assets, have the government nationalize them, and blame the whole thing on greedy capitalists. Nothing bad could ever come from that!
The plan is revealed. Sounds like what many countries did in the 1900’s - with disastrous, deadly results.
 

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WestCoast

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Toured a factory in Western France today.
They use a LOT of natural gas.

They were fairly unconcerned by the price increases.
They have been able to pass them on to customers so far (including us :)

FWIW, one data point from on the ground in Europe.
 
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Sounds like a government solution to a government problem. I am sure nothing would ever backfire by doing that!

That is a good way to have companies walk away from assets, have the government nationalize them, and blame the whole thing on greedy capitalists. Nothing bad could ever come from that!
In Spain, electricity companies are having their profits skyrocket. One thing is charging accordingly for the increase in the cost of generating energy, which has obviously got more expensive. A complete different thing is to take advantage of that and make bank while people can't pay their bills.

It's as if some folks loved being robbed. I'm okay with paying more to make up for the extra costs, but not to make some fat a$$ richer for no reason.
 

Mikkel

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In Spain, electricity companies are having their profits skyrocket. One thing is charging accordingly for the increase in the cost of generating energy, which has obviously got more expensive. A complete different thing is to take advantage of that and make bank while people can't pay their bills.

It's as if some folks loved being robbed. I'm okay with paying more to make up for the extra costs, but not to make some fat a$$ richer for no reason.
Unless that fat a$$ got subsidies, then the only reason you have power to turn on your computer and write this message is because of that "fat a$$." I'm assuming it isn't the energy companies' fault that many European countries made stupid political moves. It is in spite of the stupid policies that your country and many other countries have made that these companies are still producing power.
 

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I live in Germany and stopped believing in some big crash as the catalyst to turn things around. Nothing serious will happen. There will be some bail/handouts to pay the higher prices, taxes going up even more to finance it and then just business as usual.
 
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srodrigo

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Unless that fat a$$ got subsidies, then the only reason you have power to turn on your computer and write this message is because of that "fat a$$." I'm assuming it isn't the energy companies' fault that many European countries made stupid political moves. It is in spite of the stupid policies that your country and many other countries have made that these companies are still producing power.
Of course, it's not the energy companies' fault to overcharge to increase their profits (not their earnings to cover extra costs, which I'd be happy to pay for, but their profits) unreasonably when the crisis starts. Coyotes and vultures would agree.

Some people don't seem to understand that this practice is not only unethical, but it's also driving all sorts of prices up. When energy prices go up, everything else does. This is having a massive impact everywhere, not only on aunty Mary living on ramen and not turning the heating on, but on some businesses considering closing doors as they can't pay the bills. Why this is cool to some, I don't know, specially on an entrepreneurs forum. It doesn't make any sense to defend something like this.

I'm not for nationalising energy companies, but going from 5% to 35% PROFITS while the economy takes a massive hit is obscene. Since I'm not a masochist, I'm not okay with this.

Anyway, happy winter all and stay warm :)
 

Andreas Thiel

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If Germany (and the UK) has no heat in homes, won't the water pipes burst?

I am sure Canada gets colder than Germany, so it may not be apples to apples. If the heat goes out here you have to move very fast to get it back up again or your pipes will all freeze and burst. Is that not a worry?

How are the everyday citizens reactinf to this this far? Do any realize that this is a 100% man made emergency?

I should reach out to the Germans in Mexico who left a few years ago to avoid this very situation to see what they think. If I recall correctly, their families all thought they were insane.
At least it is common knowledge that, in general, one should always leave the heating on at least "defrost" settings rather than switching it off completely when leaving the flat unsupervised in winter, so it must be a concern.

I heard that there will be quite a few things that need to be done in many households. There were articles that said there won't be enough qualified workers to do all that necessary work. That made it on my father's radar. I personally hear mostly from people who have enough money that they recently bought their new houses and installed solar panels etc, so I don't know enough stories to have an accurate picture.

And yes, there are quite a few people who get what is going on. The media pegs all people who complain as right wing extremists who support Russia and kill kittens for fun. From what I have seen, everybody who has a brain opposes what the politicians decide. People here just don't know what they are supposed to do about it. Recently I head from a former schoolmate who said the only way out of the mess is beheading all politicians. That sentiment is definitely on the rise. But pretty much everybody grew up learning that you can trust the media.

It is a slow and gradual awakening for many and people simply have not learned how to "resist", because it was never necessary. In my youth I learned that only in a totalitarian system opposition is not allowed.
Now democracy is pretty much dead. We are told what we are supposed to think. The only promising pivot would be telling the USA to go f itself (themselves?), which is just not an option. The whole media landscape is made up of pro USA journalists. All the people in power are paid by US institutions.
Former chancellor Gerhard Schröder keeps bringing up Nord Stream 2 and except for the death penalty it feels like any punishment is on the table.
 

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At least it is common knowledge that, in general, one should always leave the heating on at least "defrost" settings rather than switching it off completely when leaving the flat unsupervised in winter, so it must be a concern.

I heard that there will be quite a few things that need to be done in many households. There were articles that said there won't be enough qualified workers to do all that necessary work. That made it on my father's radar. I personally hear mostly from people who have enough money that they recently bought their new houses and installed solar panels etc, so I don't know enough stories to have an accurate picture.

And yes, there are quite a few people who get what is going on. The media pegs all people who complain as right wing extremists who support Russia and kill kittens for fun. From what I have seen, everybody who has a brain opposes what the politicians decide. People here just don't know what they are supposed to do about it. Recently I head from a former schoolmate who said the only way out of the mess is beheading all politicians. That sentiment is definitely on the rise. But pretty much everybody grew up learning that you can trust the media.

It is a slow and gradual awakening for many and people simply have not learned how to "resist", because it was never necessary. In my youth I learned that only in a totalitarian system opposition is not allowed.
Now democracy is pretty much dead. We are told what we are supposed to think. The only promising pivot would be telling the USA to go f itself (themselves?), which is just not an option. The whole media landscape is made up of pro USA journalists. All the people in power are paid by US institutions.
Former chancellor Gerhard Schröder keeps bringing up Nord Stream 2 and except for the death penalty it feels like any punishment is on the table.
In the UK we are being told they will cap Gas/Electric at £2400 a year for the next two years, lets hope it works out as next month its time to fire up the heating in the UK (October until March)
 
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Mikkel

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In the UK we are being told they will cap Gas/Electric at £2400 a year for the next two years, lets hope it works out as next month its time to fire up the heating in the UK (October until March)
What could go wrong? Nothing bad has ever happened with capping prices...
 

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At least it is common knowledge that, in general, one should always leave the heating on at least "defrost" settings rather than switching it off completely when leaving the flat unsupervised in winter, so it must be a concern.

I heard that there will be quite a few things that need to be done in many households. There were articles that said there won't be enough qualified workers to do all that necessary work. That made it on my father's radar. I personally hear mostly from people who have enough money that they recently bought their new houses and installed solar panels etc, so I don't know enough stories to have an accurate picture.

And yes, there are quite a few people who get what is going on. The media pegs all people who complain as right wing extremists who support Russia and kill kittens for fun. From what I have seen, everybody who has a brain opposes what the politicians decide. People here just don't know what they are supposed to do about it. Recently I head from a former schoolmate who said the only way out of the mess is beheading all politicians. That sentiment is definitely on the rise. But pretty much everybody grew up learning that you can trust the media.

It is a slow and gradual awakening for many and people simply have not learned how to "resist", because it was never necessary. In my youth I learned that only in a totalitarian system opposition is not allowed.
Now democracy is pretty much dead. We are told what we are supposed to think. The only promising pivot would be telling the USA to go f itself (themselves?), which is just not an option. The whole media landscape is made up of pro USA journalists. All the people in power are paid by US institutions.
Former chancellor Gerhard Schröder keeps bringing up Nord Stream 2 and except for the death penalty it feels like any punishment is on the table.
It's just a clown world. It seems that the political elite in its entirety simply doesn't want to assert its own national interests, they have bigger fish to fry.
 

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In the UK we are being told they will cap Gas/Electric at £2400 a year for the next two years, lets hope it works out as next month its time to fire up the heating in the UK (October until March)
Can I send some of my crypto miners that way? I would love to have some energy price caps on those things!
 
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Had the same idea. I m sure, they find a way ..
They are saying its capped at the normal energy you use, anything over your normal use, you will get hammered at a top rate. So got to stay in your normal range.
 

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If Europa Regina wants to do everything and anything that Lady Liberty wants her to do, then she has to bear the consequences while the latter laughs all the way to the bank.
 
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I am appalled to see how many people in an entrepreneurship forum see "greenization" as a "hippie policy".

This is the exact SCRIPTED avoidance towards change.

It is our job to find green solutions to energy problems. Just like Elon Musk is trying to do (or sell).

Just because something is not pragmatical or convenient, does not mean it is true.

Climate change is real. Burning fossil fuels is really unsustainable (whether it is convenient to burn them or not)

So yes, shutting down fossil fuel plants was correct.

What was done to replace that gap was wrong in majority.


Our only carbon neutral alternatives are nuclear, hydro, wind, solar and geothermics.

Hydro is already utilized worldwide on a broad scale.

The only rapidly scalable of these is nuclear.

Most countries (including Germany) closed down most of these after the events of Fukushima.

Yet, Germany is able to build cutting-edge technology reactors with the ability to cool passively. (when you leave it on its own, the core cools down itself, eliminating the risk of a meltdown)

We have breeder reactors. (reactors that do not create waste, but uses the waste to make new fuel)

We could've easily sustained our energy needs with nuclear, and led the world to these new technologies. (just like we did with fossil burning technologies like internal combustion engine.

Instead of this, we have shut down all, made ourselves completely dependent on unscalable alternatives like wind and solar, and in the mean time to gas from Russia.

The result was that Germany has exported the nuclear power production to neighboring countries, who are tolerant of nuclear plants. (especially France) We are importing it now.

But try telling this to the average consumer. In Germany, we have 7-8 million people, who are illiterate. Yes, in Germany. In 2022.

There are tens of such problems, like the expansionist monetary policies, widening of EU etc. where a socialist hippie Jürgen/Sandra does not understand the global dynamics and tries to save the F*cking world with his/her limited brain capacity without finishing a degree even.

Germany is a very decadent group of socialist, entitled hippies, that have no understanding of the world in general whatsoever.

The problem in Germany is that it is too democratic. There is too little elitism.

Technocrats have too little authority.


And maybe in the whole Western world as well.

And I think that the current problem of the world is that we are at the end of democratic nation states. This is what will bring an end to the world order set at the end of WW1. (not the second)
 

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I am appalled to see how many people in an entrepreneurship forum see "greenization" as a "hippie policy".

This is the exact SCRIPTED avoidance towards change.

It is our job to find green solutions to energy problems. Just like Elon Musk is trying to do (or sell).

Just because something is not pragmatical or convenient, does not mean it is true.

Climate change is real. Burning fossil fuels is really unsustainable (whether it is convenient to burn them or not)

So yes, shutting down fossil fuel plants was correct.

What was done to replace that gap was wrong in majority.


Our only carbon neutral alternatives are nuclear, hydro, wind, solar and geothermics.

Hydro is already utilized worldwide on a broad scale.

The only rapidly scalable of these is nuclear.

Most countries (including Germany) closed down most of these after the events of Fukushima.

Yet, Germany is able to build cutting-edge technology reactors with the ability to cool passively. (when you leave it on its own, the core cools down itself, eliminating the risk of a meltdown)

We have breeder reactors. (reactors that do not create waste, but uses the waste to make new fuel)

We could've easily sustained our energy needs with nuclear, and led the world to these new technologies. (just like we did with fossil burning technologies like internal combustion engine.

Instead of this, we have shut down all, made ourselves completely dependent on unscalable alternatives like wind and solar, and in the mean time to gas from Russia.

The result was that Germany has exported the nuclear power production to neighboring countries, who are tolerant of nuclear plants. (especially France) We are importing it now.

But try telling this to the average consumer. In Germany, we have 7-8 million people, who are illiterate. Yes, in Germany. In 2022.

There are tens of such problems, like the expansionist monetary policies, widening of EU etc. where a socialist hippie Jürgen/Sandra does not understand the global dynamics and tries to save the F*cking world with his/her limited brain capacity without finishing a degree even.

Germany is a very decadent group of socialist, entitled hippies, that have no understanding of the world in general whatsoever.

The problem in Germany is that it is too democratic. There is too little elitism.

Technocrats have too little authority.


And maybe in the whole Western world as well.

And I think that the current problem of the world is that we are at the end of democratic nation states. This is what will bring an end to the world order set at the end of WW1. (not the second)
Believing in climate change and green policy is scripted.

The WEF or whatever you want to call them clowns have been using climate alarmism forever to try and introduce their totalitarian agenda.

Here’s my contribution to what’s already a very political thread.

View: https://youtu.be/FfJv9QYrlwg


People should be more worried about Europe running out of food because that’s what’s going to happen next because of these “green” policies.
 

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