forget it... I’m bored of covidWhat fallacy?
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Free registration at the forum removes this block.forget it... I’m bored of covidWhat fallacy?
forget it... I’m bored of covid
Made me think of your post:
This is a power grab we haven’t seen since 9/11 | Schiff Sovereign
Thousands of years ago in 458 BC, Lucius Quintius Cincinnatus was hard at work behind his plow on the family farm when a group of Roman Senators showed up with urgent news. A foreign enemy called the…www.sovereignman.com
The most important point:
What I’m most concerned about at this point is NOT the virus, nor even the economic devastation.
I’m far more concerned at how governments have seized this opportunity to vastly expand their power.
They have us all cowering in our homes, stripped of the most basic freedoms to do just about anything.
People are being thrown off their own private property because they’re not an ‘official resident’ of the town. Others have been arrested for attending a funeral. Others threatened with jail for their social media posts.
Content everywhere is being heavily censored, with major tech companies like Google and Facebook telling us what we can/cannot say.
Governments around the world are tracking their citizens’ every movement, and now there’s talk of national health databases and special passports.
And they’re spending trillions of dollars without any thought of the consequences.
It’s a power grab we haven’t seen since 9/11. The circumstances are certainly similar: people are terrified, so the government is doing whatever it wants.
Again, the public health problems will eventually be fixed. Even the economy will some day recover.
But there’s going to be a huge impact to our freedom from this astonishing growth of unchecked government power. And a lot of those changes will be with us permanently.
Something I’ve seen mentioned but not really researched much yet is the impact that the initial dose (how much of the virus a person is exposed to) of the virus has on a person’s viral load and the overall severity of their case.
For example, if you are exposed to a very small amount of the virus vs. if you are exposed to a much larger amount, are you more likely to have a more mild case?
Influenza, SARS, and MERS all follow the same pattern — a person who is exposed to a higher initial dose of the virus tends to develop a more severe case of the virus. Viruses don’t just seem to spread exponentially within a population, but within each individual as well.
On the scale of an entire population, this may show up as a lower fatality rate in rural areas compared to urban areas. Perhaps this was a major factor in why NYC — the most densely populated city in the US — was hit much harder than anywhere else?
I know you’ve mentioned this briefly, and I researched it a bit, but it seems there isn’t a ton of research being done on this.
@GIlman You mentioned variolation (intentionally infecting people with the minimum infectious dose with the goal to trigger a mild case and develop natural antibodies) being used in the past.
I’m curious what your thoughts are on this. If a lower initial dose does indeed affect the severity of the case, do you think we could utilize this (at least among the healthiest and least vulnerable) to speed up herd immunity while reducing overall fatality rates?
While I can see why testing this theory wouldn’t be very popular, I am sure there wouldn’t be a shortage of healthy volunteers in the US to carry out such a test. Furthermore, I’m sure we are already measuring and tracking viral loads of hospitalized patients, so I wonder if there has been any trend in the viral load of non-survivors vs. survivors.
I believe we have to reopen the economy -- but even with a 0.03% fatality rate, if this eventually infects even 250M Americans (roughly 75% of US pop), we're still looking at 750K dead over the next 1-2 years, which may be a very real possibility if no effective treatment is found. I'd like to believe we will find some sort of treatment or a better strategy before then...
forget it... I’m bored of covid
Something I’ve seen mentioned but not really researched much yet is the impact that the initial dose (how much of the virus a person is exposed to) of the virus has on a person’s viral load and the overall severity of their case.
For example, if you are exposed to a very small amount of the virus vs. if you are exposed to a much larger amount, are you more likely to have a more mild case?
Influenza, SARS, and MERS all follow the same pattern — a person who is exposed to a higher initial dose of the virus tends to develop a more severe case of the virus. Viruses don’t just seem to spread exponentially within a population, but within each individual as well. In other words, if you're infected with a large initial dose, your immune system is trying to play catch up and may not be able to get ahead of the exponential curve that is the growth of the virus.
On the scale of an entire population, this may show up as a lower fatality rate in rural areas compared to urban areas. Perhaps this was a major factor in why NYC — the most densely populated city in the US — was hit much harder than anywhere else?
@GIlman I know you’ve mentioned this briefly, and I researched it a bit, but it seems there isn’t a ton of research being done on this.
You mentioned variolation (intentionally infecting people with the minimum infectious dose with the goal to trigger a mild case and develop natural antibodies) being used in the past.
I’m curious what your thoughts are on this. If a lower initial dose does indeed affect the severity of the case, do you think we could utilize this (at least among the healthiest and least vulnerable) to speed up herd immunity while reducing overall fatality rates? There is of course a risk associated with this, but as you've mentioned, there can also be a great deal of risk associated with a vaccine, especially one rushed to market.
While I can see why testing this theory wouldn’t be very popular, I am sure there wouldn’t be a shortage of healthy volunteers in the US to carry out such a test. Furthermore, I’m sure we are already measuring and tracking viral loads of hospitalized patients, so I wonder if there has been any trend in the viral load of non-survivors vs. survivors.
I believe we have to reopen the economy -- but even with a 0.03% fatality rate, if this eventually infects even 250M Americans (roughly 75% of US pop), we're still looking at 750K dead over the next 1-2 years, which may be a very real possibility if no effective treatment is found. I'd like to believe we will find some sort of treatment or a better strategy before then...
From what I heard, viral load is what makes a difference in the younger population coherent. This means what once we do open up the economy, which is happening slowly in the next 2 month, we'd all have practice cleaning procedures very clearly to eliminate as much contact with virus as possible.
Made me think of your post:
This is a power grab we haven’t seen since 9/11 | Schiff Sovereign
Thousands of years ago in 458 BC, Lucius Quintius Cincinnatus was hard at work behind his plow on the family farm when a group of Roman Senators showed up with urgent news. A foreign enemy called the…www.sovereignman.com
The most important point:
What I’m most concerned about at this point is NOT the virus, nor even the economic devastation.
I’m far more concerned at how governments have seized this opportunity to vastly expand their power.
They have us all cowering in our homes, stripped of the most basic freedoms to do just about anything.
People are being thrown off their own private property because they’re not an ‘official resident’ of the town. Others have been arrested for attending a funeral. Others threatened with jail for their social media posts.
Content everywhere is being heavily censored, with major tech companies like Google and Facebook telling us what we can/cannot say.
Governments around the world are tracking their citizens’ every movement, and now there’s talk of national health databases and special passports.
And they’re spending trillions of dollars without any thought of the consequences.
It’s a power grab we haven’t seen since 9/11. The circumstances are certainly similar: people are terrified, so the government is doing whatever it wants.
Again, the public health problems will eventually be fixed. Even the economy will some day recover.
But there’s going to be a huge impact to our freedom from this astonishing growth of unchecked government power. And a lot of those changes will be with us permanently.
All I wrote was #landfill.. but you already knew that.Hey @ChrisV Did you delete a post? We need another thread about your deleted post. People can’t just delete posts.
I'm not sure what your post was because I stopped following this thread for a couple days, but if you're going to delete your posts, you also have to delete everyone else's posts, related or not.All I wrote was #landfill.. but you already knew that.
I stopped following this thread for a couple days
but if you're going to delete your posts, you also have to delete everyone else's posts, related or not.
Oh wait, you're not a mod. Nevermind. Carry on, pleb.
Thanks for your insights, Gilman. Always challenging my understanding of the situation.This has been very true for some viral infections, that outcome is related to viral exposure load. This is thought to be true in this illness too, but I haven’t found a good source that has done the analysis.
There are a couple things with variolation, first you have to prove that outcome with intentional low dose infection diminishes the risk. If the risk of disability or death is the same, I.e. it’s not dose dependent exposure that matters, then it serves no purpose.
You also have to get public buyin. There seems to be a bias, which I don't know of a name for it, but I’ll call it Not It bias. Basically if 65% of the population statistically will get an illness, much > than 35% of people believe that they will be in the group that does not get the illness, which obviously is not true. This taints people perspective in doing something they would otherwise not do in daily living if there is substantial perceived or actual risk. They believe they will be the lucky one and never get sick so why take any risk at all.
With variolation there is always some risk, the risk of a bad outcome or death is not zero, and may in fact be significant even if when compared to the actual illness is much much less.
The risk of variolation is certainly much much greater than the risk of vaccination. When your looking at a population as a group any treatment/intervention can make sense in a statistical way it may not on a one by one individual basis. In population studies there are no individuals, everyone is blurred into a statistic (say 95% fewer deaths). As an individual, everything is binary, you are either alive or dead, there is no 95% alive. That is what has and will make variolation a hard sell, and understandably so.
The place viral load has appeared to have the greatest risk is homes with infected family members or any place people have continued high levels of exposure (hospitals, prisons, etc). Casual community acquired illness is probably some of the lowest risk as far as death is concerned.
@Kak, I know any opposition I ever really had to your view points were always more based on the perception I had that you believed the illness itself was not a significant or serious health risk - quite possible a misperception on my part. That’s a majority of the healthy debates I’ve entered into. Well intentioned debate is always good.
And me. But my posts got deletedI know... funny part was I never even commented on that deleted posts stuff. That was @Longinus
while the capitalists restart the economy.
And now we're onto one of our real problems, whether or not the "experts" were correct about COVID.
And now we're onto one of our real problems, whether or not the "experts" were correct about COVID.
The policymakers that have the power to deprive hundreds of millions of people of the ability to go to work pay absolutely no price for being wrong. In fact, there are some institutions in our government that, even if this whole thing turns out to be an overreaction, will find themselves with more funding and power than ever.
War on terror. War on drugs. War on poverty. Quantitative easing. Common Core. Failing to achieve objectives and being consistently wrong appears to be highly lucrative if you work for the State.
Yes, death is just a contributing factor to losing your life because of the virus.Oh. So now we're attributing cause of death as COVID 19 to people who overdosed.
So many ways for mass media to spin this and most people probably won't believe that speeding things up - with more horror per day - would not lead to a worse bottom line. They'll just say that lockdowns prevented things from getting as bad as they got in NYC elsewhere. And people who call BS will be the enemy.Florida is set to start a gradual reopening today with people coming unglued realizing they’ve been duped. From a 485,000 worst case projection INCLUDING “social distancing” which drove people out of work and under their beds to a normal seasonal death rate result.
We have millions out of work, hundreds of thousands of lives ruined, and tens of thousands of small businesses destroyed.
And statisticians that go “oh well... you don’t understand the numbers.” They’re the problem, but now fully exposed. The self proclaimed elite thinkers are exposed as the imbeciles. The Emperor truly has no clothes... and no clue.
History books will show this as being one of the greatest travesties in human history with the blame squarely on the shoulders of the “experts.” Kids reading about this in history will be incredulous that people fell for this, but the elites will try it again soon but with far different results.
Terrorists will never again bring down a plane because of the awakening that happened in the days that followed 9/11.
Economic terrorists will never again bring down America using herd mentality when all we needed was herd immunity.
Great... now what are your thoughts on quantum physics? How about genomics? Do you think CRISPR will be ready by 2025?And statisticians that go “oh well... you don’t understand the numbers.” They’re the problem, but now fully exposed.
Great... now what are your thoughts on quantum physics? How about genomics? Do you think CRISPR will be ready by 2025?
My uncle has a bloodclot in his right frontal lobe, I was wondering if you had any thoughts on which area it would be best to go in for the surgery.
No it's the other way around. You're supposed to show a video of those know-nothing egghead epidemiologists telling everyone to worry but the calm rational citizens being too smart to get suckered by all that stuff and just going about their business.
No it's the other way around. You're supposed to show a video of those know-nothing egghead epidemiologists telling everyone to worry but the calm rational citizens being too smart to get suckered by all that stuff and just going about their business.
Florida is set to start a gradual reopening today with people coming unglued realizing they’ve been duped. From a 485,000 worst case projection INCLUDING “social distancing” which drove people out of work and under their beds to a normal seasonal death rate result.
We have millions out of work, hundreds of thousands of lives ruined, and tens of thousands of small businesses destroyed.
And statisticians that go “oh well... you don’t understand the numbers.” They’re the problem, but now fully exposed. The self proclaimed elite thinkers are exposed as the imbeciles. The Emperor truly has no clothes... and no clue.
History books will show this as being one of the greatest travesties in human history with the blame squarely on the shoulders of the “experts.” Kids reading about this in history will be incredulous that people fell for this, but the elites will try it again soon but with far different results.
Terrorists will never again bring down a plane because of the awakening that happened in the days that followed 9/11.
Economic terrorists will never again bring down America using herd mentality when all we needed was herd immunity.
No no no, epidemiologists are idiots. We can't listen to them.https://nationalpost.com/opinion/op...-and-its-probably-safe-to-reopen-some-schools
Mate, the travesty is having to choose between having hundreds of thousands of people die horrible and lonely deaths or destroying the economy. It's a false dichotomy. Our countries failed to properly analyse the risks or invest the resources required into preventing them. That's why we're in this situation.
Imagine a pair of broke friends arguing over whether if they'd saved £1 a week instead of playing the lottery they'd be millionaires right now. It's dumb and if you've got a stake in that argument you've already lost.
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