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The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

biophase

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Well there are now two cases in my city. Last month, it was in my county.

Also, assuming this data is correct, it is encouraging. If the data isn't, well, disregard.

View: https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1236995910141390848


This means the virus was already in the Phoenix population last week.

I have a flight Wednesday... not sure if I'm going to take it or not. I could drive it in 14 hours.
 
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Kak

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Let me reiterate for the hundredth time, THIS WOULDN'T HAPPEN IF BIDETS WHERE A THING IN AMERICA you guys. #bidetsforall

So many Americans think bidets are "gross" and "eww." Funny, I always thought that shower clean from a bidet was markedly less "gross" than half-clean from dry toilet paper.
 

Thoelt53

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Theo, when the facts are pointing one way and society is damagingly going another path, we need to aggressively non-conform. These panic clickers and buyers are sinking the economy. That’s the real threat.
Since when does massive quantity of consumption sink an economy?

We were already due for a correction. It seems that SARS-CoV-2 is simply the catalyst.
 

Thoelt53

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So many Americans think bidets are "gross" and "eww." Funny, I always thought that shower clean from a bidet was markedly less "gross" than half-clean from dry toilet paper.
I don’t find them gross. It’s purely intimidation by a foreign object lol.

After all, there is no cleaner bum than a post-shower bum.
 
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Drive2Riches

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Now that a case of the virus has actually hit CPAC and is transmitted by touch, more cases might emerge in DC, thus having the potential to motivate politicians' actions rather than maintaining political rhetoric when people that they actually know start getting quarantined.

I posted that about 36 hours ago.

Presently, the news is that there are four high profile politicians "self quarantined" and they each had first-hand contact with the President, including one being on board AF1.
 

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The only people who are dying are in their 80’s
Do you know what a statistical average is? It’s not a number I pulled out of my a$$. Italy is saying the average age is 81.

Maybe post your "facts" in a factual statement next time. Replying to you in a constructive manner is tiring.
 

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biggeemac

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I posted that about 36 hours ago.

Presently, the news is that there are four high profile politicians "self quarantined" and they each had first-hand contact with the President, including one being on board AF1.
One could only hope that our great commander in chief gets infected and starts taking things a little more seriously. Literally, just about every country with a significant number of cases has done more covid testing than we have.

Wife and I went to urgent care for a mystery illness. We were "screened out", despite my informing them that we have many people living in our house, and that our daughters were also sick, and some of our residents are starting to feel "under the weather". One of them works at an elder care facility. The screening process is a joke !! The questions we were asked were as follows......

Have you traveled recently? Yes
Where? San Antonio and Sacramento
Symptoms? Bad headache followed by coughing and respiratory anomaly (my chest hurts)
Had your flu shot? No
Do you want us to check for flu? Yes

Never heard back about the flu test (edited.....flu test came back negative). My wife got a chest xray and it looked ok. The attending doctor contacted disease prevention and they decided not to carry out a covid test. Here is where we rank in terms of tests ran per million people.....

30944
 
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Mckenzie

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I guess Estate Planning businesses will do well this year.
I literally doing that today! I thought to myself that what if I’m gone in a sudden what happened to my estates and my children? So I sat down and did the planning.
 
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GIlman

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Here you go


There is an inherent problem to state Korea's death rate at 0.6%, it's something we refer to as Lead Time Bias. Basically if you test earlier you will increase the denominator which will decrease your percent because you are including people from an earlier phase. As @JScott pointed out many many pages ago, the problem is that you are figuring that mortality rate as a snapshot based on people who are still sick and could still die. Until you have resolution live/die for every person in the sample you really can't calculate an accurate percentage; you simply can't include people in the midst of the illness. The more widely you test, the more lead time bias you will introduce.

This is why I have been stating that we really need to group people by weekly cohorts and follow each group out to resolution. This will allow us to get better (not perfect) calculations of the death rate. Unfortunately I have seen no stratified data like this, the best we have atm is the princess cruise, since we know how many people were infected, and we know the death rate (currently @ 1%) although there are still something like 35 people listed in serious/critical condition so that percent will almost surely rise.

The US response is to simply be blind, expect there to be a massive explosion of cases soon, and when we actually really start testing you can expect the numbers to be off the charts.

Now, I'm not claiming to know that actual mortality rate, everything is too preliminary right now. Anyone that claims to know this is simply lying, because it takes some rigorous studies to determine accurate numbers-none have been conducted yet. There are indicators that things could be quite bad, look at the reactions around the world. This is costing literally trillions of dollars, and could bankrupt many companies and industries.

Certainly the aged are impacted more than the healthy young people. However there are emerging reports of permanent kidney, liver, and even heart disease that can impact any aged person. The point being even those that survive, many may have new health problems they are dealing with for the rest of their lives.

But I do know that based on posturing I am seeing, that mass scale quarantines are almost certainly in our future. We have an house and an apartment we rent, we just got a notice today at the apartment that if anyone in the apartment is diagnosed to expect that the entire apartment complex will be placed into quarantine - with probably 500 units in the building that seems likely at some point.
 

lowtek

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There is an inherent problem to state Korea's death rate at 0.6%, it's something we refer to as Lead Time Bias. Basically if you test earlier you will increase the denominator which will decrease your percent because you are including people from an earlier phase. As @JScott pointed out many many pages ago, the problem is that you are figuring that mortality rate as a snapshot based on people who are still sick and could still die. Until you have resolution live/die for every person in the sample you really can't calculate an accurate percentage; you simply can't include people in the midst of the illness. The more widely you test, the more lead time bias you will introduce.

This is why I have been stating that we really need to group people by weekly cohorts and follow each group out to resolution. This will allow us to get better (not perfect) calculations of the death rate. Unfortunately I have seen no stratified data like this, the best we have atm is the princess cruise, since we know how many people were infected, and we know the death rate (currently @ 1%) although there are still something like 35 people listed in serious/critical condition so that percent will almost surely rise.

The US response is to simply be blind, expect there to be a massive explosion of cases soon, and when we actually really start testing you can expect the numbers to be off the charts.

Now, I'm not claiming to know that actual mortality rate, everything is too preliminary right now. Anyone that claims to know this is simply lying, because it takes some rigorous studies to determine accurate numbers-none have been conducted yet. There are indicators that things could be quite bad, look at the reactions around the world. This is costing literally trillions of dollars, and could bankrupt many companies and industries.

Certainly the aged are impacted more than the healthy young people. However there are emerging reports of permanent kidney, liver, and even heart disease that can impact any aged person. The point being even those that survive, many may have new health problems they are dealing with for the rest of their lives.

But I do know that based on posturing I am seeing, that mass scale quarantines are almost certainly in our future. We have an house and an apartment we rent, we just got a notice today at the apartment that if anyone in the apartment is diagnosed to expect that the entire apartment complex will be placed into quarantine - with probably 500 units in the building that seems likely at some point.

Is that apartment complex here in Maricopa county?
 

GIlman

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Is that apartment complex here in Maricopa county?

Yes, in Maricopa. I disagree with any such action, it is non-sense. And what do you do if there are several infections in different people overtime. How long and how often would you do any quarantine. I think there are some serious unknowns about CV, and some worrying indications about it. But certainly I do think many of the responses are not proportional to the illness itself. It's kinda of the do something do anything mentality, as if something and anything at all is better.

The thing I do not know if this was just a knee jerk thing from someone associated with the apartment or if there had been some warning or discussion with the state health department or some notification with the CDC, HHS, or some other body. So I have no idea what authority they would have to actually do it.
 
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gryfny

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I still see people talking about sub 5% death rates. Such rates are based on a number of things. First of all, it's mainly coming from China, which has the most reported cases. The Chinese government is not known for their openness and honesty.

Second of all, it reports deaths as a percentage of all current cases. But with something this new and growing exponentially, deaths (and recoveries) will always trail behind the total cases. If you calculate it in that manner, you can say the death rate is 5% (463 / 9172). But with the same logic, you can also say that the recovery rate is only 8% (724 / 9172). I thin it's too early to make such calculations, or at least to base our conclusions only on these numbers. It's also important to look at deaths/recoveries as a percentage of closes cases, see below:
30953
Source: Italy Coronavirus: 9,172 Cases and 463 Deaths - Worldometer

I'm not saying death rate will be 39% in the end. But I am saying that it's too early to say anything conclusive about this yet. And in any case where the health of you and your family is at risk, I like to err to the side of caution.

Also, check out this Twitter thread from a Italian ICU physician in Bergamo. I am worried by what she says, but I fully agree with her conclusion: "We don't have a lot of studies, but is it panic really worse than neglect and carelessness during an epidemic of this sort? "
View: https://twitter.com/silviast9/status/1236933818654896129
 

Sander

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The Danish Prime Minister just held a press conference.

132 confirmed cases in Denmark, around 900 in quarantine.

"If we're not doing anything in our power to stop this now, our national health department can't keep up with the pressure" And we're talking a statement like this after 132 confirmed cases.

From later today, every incoming flight from red areas (Norther Italy, China regions, South Korea, Iran etc) will be cancelled and denied access.

Anyone arriving from these countries will need to go in 14 days quarantine.

7 persons in critical conditions, none of them in ICU. 0 deaths yet.
 
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Ernman

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Never did I say government is inherently evil, although there is A LOT of historical precedent to support that view.

I stated that government is inherently flawed, in my own terms, and by your post it would seem we are in agreement.

History shows us that pretty much every government that has existed has grown and morphed into a bureaucracy. It can’t be disputed.

My original point was that you simply cannot rely on the government. Period. It will never favor your interests, only its own. The government serves itself, which is the essence that births bureaucracy.
You know what? I do agree with you...government is an inherently flawed entity. I find it interesting that you and I agree on the premise but express it so differently.

I also agree that we cannot rely on government alone. We can't rely on business either, as each seems to have their own self interest at stake. Which speaks to the importance of a free and open press and an informed citizenry. Now we're really opening a can of worms. This discussion could make for an interesting thread of it's own.
 
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lowtek

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A bit of local intelligence for my Phoenix area people:

Facts:
My wife received an email from Intel last night. An employee who visited two of the buildings (one of which my wife works at) on March 2nd and 3rd has tested positive for the coronavirus. Employees are instructed to work from home until further notice. A coworker who left yesterday at about 4:30 pm saw a cleaning crew she had never seen before (i.e. heavy duty and not typical Intel employees) going to work cleaning the building.

Speculation:
The email states that the employee had come from elsewhere and flown into the campus, without having been to any other Intel campus within the prior two weeks. This just sounds fishy and like they're trying to obscure the identity of the patient. Why would someone be on a 2 week vacation and then go on a business trip to our site as soon as they go back? Just doesn't feel right to us and doesn't pass the smell test.

What we do know is that my wife's area manager (2nd level manager, i.e. manager's manager) went to Germany a few weeks ago. He returned and some time later was out sick. On March 2 and 3rd he returned to the office and was actively coughing during a staff meeting. He was called out by some employees and was out again for a couple days before returning.

Two of the other employees in that staff meeting were out sick yesterday. We don't know anything about that, other than they weren't there. Perhaps they were just claiming to be sick to stay home, it is a Monday after all.

We're speculating that it was my wife's area manager and that we've all potentially been exposed. This is just pure speculation based on our limited perspective, but the timelines do seem to line up. Even if it wasn't him, whoever it was certainly used the elevator and other common areas.

As of yet, nobody in the house has any real symptoms. The toddler has had a bit of a sporadic cough, but no fever and it wasn't anything that struck us as "hey this kid is sick".

Unfortunately my wife has to go in to the campus clinic today to get tested for tuberculosis, which another employee brought back from India. Soooo yeah. That place is a freaking petri dish.

She's going to ask about getting tested for the virus as well, so that we can be sure for sure.

Bottom line for the Phoenix crowd: the virus is here and it's spreading. If you're planning on self isolating, now would be a great time.
 

Mckenzie

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So South-Korea, Singapore and Malasia are dealing with the coronavirus very well and proactive and are sharing that knowledge with the world.

The western world has this information and decides to be reactive and basically do nothing. (most of the countries, not all)

Countries that did not react early have seen huge problems, see Italy, Iran, and China (Wuhan) at the start.

With all this information why do they decide to not try to protect their citizens? I do not understand.

I don't want to act like I know it all. But it makes me question their intelligence. In my country, most politicians are highly educated. They can talk their way out of any lie so, I assume they are not Dumb. With that out of the way. Is it intentional ??

I mean they have people to deliver them all the information and do the work. They have contact with doctors etc. Doctors from area's that dealt with a massive outbreak have warned them. That Italy wasn't pro-active enough, I can understand but now you have Italian doctors that you trust saying that this is a big problem. And I do not see a single reason why the same shouldn't happen in other countries.

Why wouldn't it spread like it did in Italy?
Are most of them just bad people that don't do their main job which is to protect their citizens?
Do they value economic factors over people's life?

It is an eye-opener for me. So at least I got something out of it guess... I always liked being independent, doing my own thing and not counting on others. But at this point, I'm really gonna grind it out and when possible just buy a farm for my family and settle far from civilization and just enjoy life.

Some newfound motivation at least. Let's get to work.
 
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nowap

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So South-Korea, Singapore, Malasia are dealing with the coronavirus very well and proactive and are sharing that knowledge with the world.

The western world has this information and decides to be reactive and basically do nothing. (most of the countries not all)

Countries that did not react early have seen huge problems, see Italy, Iran and China (Wuhan) at the start.

With all this information why do they decide to not try to protect their citizens? I do not understand.

I don't want to act like I know it all. But it makes me question there intelligence. In my country, most politicians are highly educated. They can talk their way out of any lie so, I assume they are not Dumb. With that out of the way. Is it intentional ??

I mean they have people to deliver them all the information and do the work. They have contact with doctors etc. Doctors from area's that dealt with a massive outbreak have warned them. That Italy wasn't pro-active enough, I can understand but now you have Italian doctors that you trust saying that this is a big problem. And I see not a single reason why the same shouldn't happen in other countries.

Why wouldn't it spread like it did in Italy?
Are most of them just bad people that don't do their main job which is to protect their citizens?
Do they value economic factors over people's life?

It is an eye-opener for me. So at least I got something out of it guess... I always liked being independent, doing my own thing and not counting on others. But at this point, I'm really gonna grind it out and when possible just buy a farm for my family and settle far from civilization and just enjoy life.

Some newfound motivation at least. Let's get to work.

Agree. Well said. And I am wondering the same things.

In the newspapers, all I read is stuff like, for example, "economic growth will be halved due to corona virus". Why are they writing that? What does it actually mean for you and me?

Life was good for me 20 years ago - between then and now, for the most years there was 'economic growth' .. is it better now? Maybe there will be no growth this year if we take the proper actions against this virus. Who cares? Or am I on the wrong forum now...
 

VDP

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Agree. Well said. And I am wondering the same things.

In the newspapers, all I read is stuff like, for example, "economic growth will be halved due to corona virus". Why are they writing that? What does it actually mean for you and me?

Life was good for me 20 years ago - between then and now, for the most years there was 'economic growth' .. is it better now? Maybe there will be no growth this year if we take the proper actions against this virus. Who cares? Or am I on the wrong forum now...

Totally agree. I tried to tell this story to 2/3 people close to me and most are still thinking it won't get as far. Don't get me wrong I hope they are right. But, if I ask for any reason they can not give it and start talking about the economy taking a hit. That is what the news reports and that is what they worry about I guess.

Let's first save our people and then we can worry about the rest.

We can still be capitalist while also putting lives above all else. :)
 

Ernman

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So South-Korea, Singapore, Malasia are dealing with the coronavirus very well and proactive and are sharing that knowledge with the world.

The western world has this information and decides to be reactive and basically do nothing. (most of the countries not all)

Countries that did not react early have seen huge problems, see Italy, Iran and China (Wuhan) at the start.

With all this information why do they decide to not try to protect their citizens? I do not understand.

I don't want to act like I know it all. But it makes me question there intelligence. In my country, most politicians are highly educated. They can talk their way out of any lie so, I assume they are not Dumb. With that out of the way. Is it intentional ??

I mean they have people to deliver them all the information and do the work. They have contact with doctors etc. Doctors from area's that dealt with a massive outbreak have warned them. That Italy wasn't pro-active enough, I can understand but now you have Italian doctors that you trust saying that this is a big problem. And I see not a single reason why the same shouldn't happen in other countries.

Why wouldn't it spread like it did in Italy?
Are most of them just bad people that don't do their main job which is to protect their citizens?
Do they value economic factors over people's life?

It is an eye-opener for me. So at least I got something out of it guess... I always liked being independent, doing my own thing and not counting on others. But at this point, I'm really gonna grind it out and when possible just buy a farm for my family and settle far from civilization and just enjoy life.

Some newfound motivation at least. Let's get to work.
C0VlD-19 is exposing a truth that anyone who is honest with themselves knows and most even joke about. A career politician's first job is to get re-elected. Their second job is to do whatever it takes to get re-elected. I'm speaking from my U.S. perspective here. For the most part, politicians do and say whatever they believe will get them re-elected. A precious few actually do what we elected them to do and they usually don't last very long because of it. As a voting public we are our own worst enemy. We fall for the lies and pandering when it fits our desired story - without regard to reality. This is true regardless party affiliation. Again, I'm speaking on very broad terms here but the current state of U.S. politics is very telling. Highly polarized and nearly blindly trusting one's own party position while castigating anyone that doesn't agree with you.

Now layer on "public servants" who operate within bureaucracies that have morphed into ineffective spending machines where breaking the rules, speaking out or showing initiative is usually punished or at a minimum leads to "career stagnation." Those public servants that honestly want to do the right thing risk censure and termination unless the toe the party line. Some take the risk, and we learn the truth.

Finally, lets top if off with biased media consumption. In some countries, like China, Russia and N. Korea, the media is nothing more than an arm of the government. Propaganda machines. In the "free" nations of the world media is a mix of biased and unbiased observers and reporters (likely more biased than they'd like to believe). These media outlets compete for our eyeballs and ears through sensationalism and twisting the stories to fit their primary audience. We, the consumer, do our part to help this along by putting ourselves in whichever echo chamber makes us feel superior - or at least correct.

The result is the mess that is laid bare during a crisis such as we face now. Name calling and finger pointing when what we need is unbiased information and science based action. In the U.S. this can lead to the pendulum swinging to the other side of the political spectrum and we see if the "other" side is any better.
 
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JAJT

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I am right though. This is a nothingburger being blown out of proportion. Death rate is 0.6%

My good God man.

The flu itself is a serious annual disease that has every public health expert urging everyone who is capable to get the flu shot. It "only" has a death rate of something like 0.1% and represents a massive annual risk to a significant portion of the population who are older and/or immunocompromised.

The flu in and of itself is significant and certainly not "nothing". And this is at an estimated 0.1% death rate. Saying nothing of the lost productivity within society that results from it every year and the extra strain on an already strained healthcare system.

And yet you come traipsing in boldly to proclaim that 0.6% (based on incorrect methodology, as Gilman stated), which is 6x higher than the death rate of the flu (which is already significant and not "nothing") is silly, ridiculous, and blown out of proportion?

Come on man.

If this disease was "only" as bad as the flu it would be a major cause of concern as we would now have essentially twice the number of major diseases floating around, killing at-risk people, wreaking havok on productivity, and straining the already-already-strained healthcare system more. At 6x worse than the flu (your "low" estimate) this represents a significant and immediate risk to the population and is VERY worthy of alarm. Better estimates based on better methodology put this at, around, or above 1%, which is 10x higher than the flu and we still don't have all the data.

So not only is this very much a "something burger", it's a "something burger, with cheese, all the toppings, and a large side of fries".
 

Lex DeVille

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Employees are instructed to work from home until further notice

As much as I don't want to talk about freelancing right now, I can't help but think about how this might change the landscape of online work/business. Many will probably realize the need for the ability to make money from home and businesses will be forced into a trial work-from-home test run (potentially realizing how much money they save on things like electricity, water etc. and also potential productivity improvements).
 

Lex DeVille

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As much as I don't want to talk about freelancing right now, I can't help but think about how this might change the landscape of online work/business. Many will probably realize the need for the ability to make money from home and businesses will be forced into a trial work-from-home test run (potentially realizing how much money they save on things like electricity, water etc. and also potential productivity improvements).

And on that note...this just popped up in my inbox from the APA:

APA.PNG
 
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BellaPippin

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I live in America. And I have a bidet.

Previous owner installed it.

I’ve lived here 7 years and am still too intimidated to use it. It’s a foreign entity in my house.

:rofl:

You are missing out on a perfectly clean rear after every poop and tons of savings on baby wipes.

People don't know what they want until you show it to them - Steve Jobs :p
 

Ernman

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You are missing out on a perfectly clean rear after every poop and tons of savings on baby wipes.

People don't know what they want until you show it to them - Steve Jobs :p
A lady friend of my wife once said, "they're quite blissful." Now what do you suppose she meant by that ?
 

LightningHelix

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You are missing out on a perfectly clean rear after every poop and tons of savings on baby wipes.

People don't know what they want until you show it to them - Steve Jobs :p

Can confirm.

Visited Japan recently, bidets were up there in my top 5 experiences.

Which reminds me I was meaning to purchase one...

EDIT: I'll define recent as "before" coronavirus was known as rampant, for now I'm going nowhere until I have a better understanding of where this virus is headed.
 
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Ernman

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As much as I don't want to talk about freelancing right now, I can't help but think about how this might change the landscape of online work/business. Many will probably realize the need for the ability to make money from home and businesses will be forced into a trial work-from-home test run (potentially realizing how much money they save on things like electricity, water etc. and also potential productivity improvements).
I agree Lex - this has the potential to speed acceptance of more work from home. A rub comes up when the company is dealing with touch labor of course. But, for a lot of the "indirect" labor pool, there's no reason to not consider more WFH.

Having said that, not everyone is cut out to be successful in such an environment. I've had some very successful sales and business development types tell me they need to be in a classic work environment or they just don't feel right.
 

Nicoknowsbest

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As much as I don't want to talk about freelancing right now, I can't help but think about how this might change the landscape of online work/business. Many will probably realize the need for the ability to make money from home and businesses will be forced into a trial work-from-home test run (potentially realizing how much money they save on things like electricity, water etc. and also potential productivity improvements).

Bumped into my neighbors the other day. They are family of 5 with 3 kids. They are both working for a massive player (the market leader) of TeleCom locally. He told me that they both got sent home to work from home until further notice.

Somebody in our mastermind told me that his employer handed out nearly 1,000 laptops to people to provide them with a "home office".

My first thought was that once the employer of my neighbors worked things out, they might consider not having offices at all anymore. Why have the huge overhead anyway (they built - not rented - one of the most spectacular buildings lately here)?

I definitely agree with you that this might be a game changer to the working environment as we know it.
 

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