My take so far - Russia isn't really going all out here. They sent the B squad.
- Old weapons
- Fresh recruits
- Sporadic attacks
- No major front or offence
As bad as this is it could easily be 100 times worse.
Go check out some videos of the first few days of the Iraq war - Baghdad got HEAVILY bombed. I did some searching and 1,000 bombs a day were getting dropped on Iraqi at at the start. So far in total in Ukraine it's been 350 - total.
Also I have yet to see a single video in this situation with ANY major damage (non military).
Yes there have been casualties (of course) but this is not what a full out war looks like from a top 3 world super power.
Like look at these videos of random tanks just driving around by themselves.
This is not a serious effort or someone made some serious planning mistakes.
My guess (just a guess) is Russia wanted max reaction with the least amount of actual real damage. Either they just want to prove a point that they could do it or they are keeping things well below the line that would require other countries to have to be drawn into this.
But again this is not close to a 100% effort (yet).
Something seems off.
I think you are incorrect.
1) B-squad: I dont think this is a b-squad. The videos show (POW) russian soldiers didnt even know they were invading Ukraine. Many were told it was an exercise until they were on mission. Then being told they will get punished if they not follow orders. Basically a demoralised army vs. a highly motivated Ukrainian force fighting for its survival. Statistically Ukrainian and finnish people are most willing to die for their country of all EU countries. I think thhe russians dont understand why they are even fighting.
2) Front: Major Front at Donetsk and Luhansk (
Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com). Northen Front of Kiev is the most dangerous development. Southern assault slowsly securing southern Ukraine and access to sea. Only marioupol in the way. East of Dnipr river is basically a gorilla war.
3) Equipment: There were Iksander missiles fired from Belarus. Also stationed S-400. Pantsir system, buks and T-90 Tanks in Ukraine right now. Russian army has been modernising but the newest systems and weapons havent been mass produced yet. For example the most modern russian developed stealth fighter, SU-57, has been in development since 2009 and the russians currently only own 3 of them.
4) Non military damage: check out above link for civillian damage; they are currently shelling like crazy. Putins apparent game plan was to destroy military positions and then siege cities and take out the government to install a pro-russian leader without causing any civillian damage.
5) Iraq: US has quite a better airforce and guided missiles. The iraqis also had quite poor air defenses. Maybe more targets?
6) As of the 3-4th day estimated 4300 russian soldiers dead. Btw iraq War had something like 4400 US casualities in total; 74 on the first day.
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My interpretation of the current developments are that the ukrainian army is to some extent, ironically, better equiped than the Russian army. In combination with the high morale and guerilla style tactics a superpower like Russia will have a hard time to conquer the country. Remember the Taliban could never been defeated by the US. On the North eastern fronts the Ukrainians have taken out 15 tanks with Javelin missiles. Turkish Bayraktar TB-2 drones have destroyed BUKS and Tanks outside Kiev just yesterday. The Ukrainians shooting down planes and helis with Stingers. My gov sending them Panzerfaust-3 now (this gonna be a game changer). You have men driving their family to the west then returning to the war zone to fight for their country.
Meanwhile the Russian soldiers never wanted to be there. Only Putin wanted this war.