Petroyuan Coming? End of the dollar?

[Kak]

US not looking good.

That doesn't mean China is looking good, either. I wouldn't want to invest there.

This is kind of my thoughts on the matter. No central bank is trustworthy. It’s trading one bankster for another.

Free markets don’t depend on trusting someone with central control. Look for the free market solution to actually stomp the dollar out. And no, I don’t think it’s going to be the existing crypto stuff.

Imagine a bunch of poor pimple faced basement dwelling crypto Twitter douches selling their coins to Chevron for international trade purposes. LOL.

 

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[MitchC]

This is kind of my thoughts on the matter. No central bank is trustworthy. It’s trading one bankster for another.

Free markets don’t depend on trusting someone with central control. Look for the free market solution to actually stomp the dollar out. And no, I don’t think it’s going to be the existing crypto stuff.

Imagine a bunch of poor pimple faced basement dwelling crypto Twitter douches selling their coins to Chevron for international trade purposes. LOL.

The only alternative or threat to bitcoin is if something better comes along, like actually sound money, so it’s worth betting on, you win either way.

Hopefully a gold backed currency or something good is coming back.

I have a feeling it is.

Either way the dollar has been worthless since 1971 and will continue to be so what does this change?

 

[Kak]

The only alternative or threat to bitcoin is if something better comes along, like actually sound money, so it’s worth betting on, you win either way.

Hopefully a gold backed currency or something good is coming back.

I have a feeling it is.

Either way the dollar has been worthless since 1971 and will continue to be so what does this change?

The problem is that no real treasury has any money and no reserve bank has any real reserves. Everyone has been on MMT for a century and no one can just go re-establish sound money.

What are they going to do to get enough gold to back an entire national currency? Print money to buy it? In doing so they also have to admit they screwed up, which makes their problems worse. It’s a catch 22.

Maybe a super small country with a balanced budget slowly becomes a banking giant, but the west will just call them terrorists and kill them if they threaten the Ponzi scheme they have going.

 

[Xeon]

Hedge against import inflation. Because if Dollar appreciates against foreign currencies, everything not made in U.S. will be more expensive.

How does one hedge against import inflation? Sorry, I know nothing about investing or finance, only fixed/timed deposits lol

Our country doesn't produce anything. No one wants to work. People are just looking to game the system for free money. We have unlimited 3rd world immigration masquerading as Ellis Island. Our citizenry is obese and misinformed.

That describes my country to a T.
Thank you.

 

[YanC]

Our country doesn't produce anything. No one wants to work. People are just looking to game the system for free money. We have unlimited 3rd world immigration masquerading as Ellis Island. Our citizenry is obese and misinformed.

That describes my country to a T.
Thank you.

And then I will say it describes France to a T. The problem with this line of thinking is that Americans will say America is done, Singaporeans will say Singapore is done and French (like myself who is putting some of his money in Singapore to play Asia's rise and the West's decline lol) will say France is done, and every one of us may think we have it worse than the others.

Civilizations (and their currencies) come and go, so I guess we are all right on a long enough time horizon.

This may be an illustration of why doom and gloom stories are appealing and why people forecasting market crashes will always have an audience (and they will be right one day !).

Anyways, this is not directed at you two guys, I just found it funny that I personally think that France is committing suicide and the US and Asia have it better, while an American seems to think that America is dead and a Singaporean that Singapore is dead.

 

[ZF Lee]

Honestly I don't see this as the end of the world.

I see the China currency deals having similar benefits to multilateral trade agreements, where all countries in a certain region try to trim down the exchange rate costs. And hopefully makes business much more predictable.

Think the Euro.

Especially when the US Fed's moves gets the US dollar crazy, and makes the third world exports more expensive.

Imagine if you were buying machines from China...but you have to convert from your local currency in ASEAN...to USD...and to renminbi. And in reverse. Now that is a lot of hassle, especially if you haven't locked in rates in some black-and-white deal yet.

 

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[Kevin88660]

How does one hedge against import inflation? Sorry, I know nothing about investing or finance, only fixed/timed deposits lol




That describes my country to a T.
Thank you.

My comment was more towards people living in U.S. earning U.S. dollar. If U.S. dollar depreciates against other foreign currencies these will make many of their necessities more expensive.

Since we are in Singapore I believe that SGD is much more resilient. MAS has vast reserve of foreign currencies to back SGD. Recently MAS also increased its gold hoardings. I don’t think we need to worry too much in the short run.

Singapore’s Central Bank Quietly Boosts Its Gold Reserves By 30%

Without announcement, Singapore’s Central Bank added a massive 44.6 tonnes of gold to its official reserves in a single month

finance.yahoo.com

 

[BizyDad]

Federal Reserve to launch instant payment service 'FedNow' in July

The Fed's years-long project to stand up an instant payments system, FedNow, will finally be launched later this year.

finance.yahoo.com

@thechosen1

The call is coming from inside the house!!!

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

Federal Reserve to launch instant payment service 'FedNow' in July

The Fed's years-long project to stand up an instant payments system, FedNow, will finally be launched later this year.

finance.yahoo.com

@thechosen1

The call is coming from inside the house!!!

“I’m not superstitious but I am a little stitious.”

Some of my worst fears and the worst conspiracy theories keep coming true..

I just hope we can pivot, or better

If social credit scores are introduced, a major backlash wouldn’t be out of the question

 

[BizyDad]

“I’m not superstitious but I am a little stitious.”

Some of my worst fears and the worst conspiracy theories keep coming true..

I just hope we can pivot, or better

If social credit scores are introduced, a major backlash wouldn’t be out of the question

Little stitious. Lol.

Here's something I've learned from the forum.

I'm not sure if you were here for the Atlas shrugged reading group. It was pretty early on in my time at The Forum, and I remember arguing with people like @Kak . Like in my mind, these people were crazy. This kind of stuff was never going to happen. Okay, maybe not never, but DEFINITELY not in my lifetime. I was confident anyone who thought that was smoking crack. Just straight crazy talk.

And then COVID hit. And I saw "everything" that we talked about in that thread come to pass.

2 days ago I was pretty sure this stuff wasn't going to happen. Literally one day later, and I'm like hmm maybe that That Chosen One has a point...

I never say never anymore...

Except for when I do. Lol.

 

[Kevin88660]

“I’m not superstitious but I am a little stitious.”

Some of my worst fears and the worst conspiracy theories keep coming true..

I just hope we can pivot, or better

If social credit scores are introduced, a major backlash wouldn’t be out of the question

Governments love digital money to replace cash. That will kill any form of tax evasion and money laundering.

 

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[Kak]

Little stitious. Lol.

Here's something I've learned from the forum.

I'm not sure if you were here for the Atlas shrugged reading group. It was pretty early on in my time at The Forum, and I remember arguing with people like @Kak . Like in my mind, these people were crazy. This kind of stuff was never going to happen. Okay, maybe not never, but DEFINITELY not in my lifetime. I was confident anyone who thought that was smoking crack. Just straight crazy talk.

And then COVID hit. And I saw "everything" that we talked about in that thread come to pass.

2 days ago I was pretty sure this stuff wasn't going to happen. Literally one day later, and I'm like hmm maybe that That Chosen One has a point...

I never say never anymore...

Except for when I do. Lol.

I say this a lot now… Literally NOTHING surprises me anymore.

 

[heavy_industry]

You keep worrying about things that you have absolutely no control over.

The real answer to this question: it doesn't matter.

Winners will keep winning. Losers will keep losing.

The world economy is more complex than anyone can possibly comprehend. Trying to predict the future in a system that has hundreds of thousands of variables is preposterous.

Pandemics, wars, civil unrest, new scientific discoveries, natural disasters, a F*cking meteorite. Anything can happen at any time without warning.

Focus on the things that you actually have control over. If you know how to achieve success, you will be able to survive or even thrive in any economy.

 

[BizyDad]

Trying to predict the future in a system that has hundreds of thousands of variables is preposterous.

Pandemics, wars, civil unrest, new scientific discoveries, natural disasters, a F*cking meteorite. Anything can happen at any time without warning.

Focus on the things that you actually have control over. If you know how to achieve success, you will be able to survive or even thrive in any economy.

Spoken like an American living in the comfort of America. I don't know that you're American, but...

There is some truth in your words, but this isn't the whole truth.

Turning a blind eye to what's going on in the world is still turning a blind eye of what's going on in the world.

I challenge you to thrive in Ukraine's economy right now.

I'd say that's hyperbole, except for the fact that it's Ukraine's economy right now.

If you only focus on what you can control, then you have a very small view of the world. That's not necessarily a bad thing. Laser focus can be helpful.

But you also might miss a macroeconomic force that will wipe out your business.

Whereas if you were paying attention, you could have gotten out of there sooner. Let's not act like there wasn't warning for what happened in Ukraine.

Don't want to deal with hurricanes, don't live in Florida. Don't want to deal with earthquakes, don't live in California. I mean, "didn't see it coming" And it's close cousin "couldn't see it coming" sounds like a euphemism for "I wasn't thinking far enough ahead".

Even scientific discoveries don't happen overnight. Maybe read some scientific journals to see what people are working on before the mass public knows what's going on.

Conversely, if you don't pay attention to macroeconomic forces, you might miss an opportunity to ride a wave to the top that makes you look like a genius.

There's nothing in this thread that merits being called preposterous. We are simply people leaning on each other's understanding to try and gain a better foothold in this world.

We have every right to try and improve our understanding. We have every right to try and act on some of this stuff. Who are you to say that we have no control over it?

What if I decide to start an anti-fed blog, and then write a book, and then become a speaker, warning about the ills of the Fed.

And what if all that was inspired by the commentary in this thread? In this hypothetical world, Kak and Chosen would be catalysts towards my big life change.

And who are you to tell me that I can't do it? I've achieved overnight results before.

 

[Kevin88660]

You keep worrying about things that you have absolutely no control over.

The real answer to this question: it doesn't matter.

Winners will keep winning. Losers will keep losing.

The world economy is more complex than anyone can possibly comprehend. Trying to predict the future in a system that has hundreds of thousands of variables is preposterous.

Pandemics, wars, civil unrest, new scientific discoveries, natural disasters, a F*cking meteorite. Anything can happen at any time without warning.

Focus on the things that you actually have control over. If you know how to achieve success, you will be able to survive or even thrive in any economy.

I agree that the relevance is more in the investment area. That is why I put it under the investment section.

If you have a large exposure to public traded liquid assets or huge position of dollar denominated asset it could affect you a lot.

If you are looking for trading ideas this thread could be useful.

If you are running a local service based cleaning business this global event is unlikely to cause material impact…

 

[heavy_industry]

Spoken like an American living in the comfort of America. I don't know that you're American, but...

There is some truth in your words, but this isn't the whole truth.

Turning a blind eye to what's going on in the world is still turning a blind eye of what's going on in the world.

I challenge you to thrive in Ukraine's economy right now.

I'd say that's hyperbole, except for the fact that it's Ukraine's economy right now.

If you only focus on what you can control, then you have a very small view of the world. That's not necessarily a bad thing. Laser focus can be helpful.

But you also might miss a macroeconomic force that will wipe out your business.

Whereas if you were paying attention, you could have gotten out of there sooner. Let's not act like there wasn't warning for what happened in Ukraine.

Don't want to deal with hurricanes, don't live in Florida. Don't want to deal with earthquakes, don't live in California. I mean, "didn't see it coming" And it's close cousin "couldn't see it coming" sounds like a euphemism for "I wasn't thinking far enough ahead".

Even scientific discoveries don't happen overnight. Maybe read some scientific journals to see what people are working on before the mass public knows what's going on.

Conversely, if you don't pay attention to macroeconomic forces, you might miss an opportunity to ride a wave to the top that makes you look like a genius.

There's nothing in this thread that merits being called preposterous. We are simply people leaning on each other's understanding to try and gain a better foothold in this world.

We have every right to try and improve our understanding. We have every right to try and act on some of this stuff. Who are you to say that we have no control over it?

What if I decide to start an anti-fed blog, and then write a book, and then become a speaker, warning about the ills of the Fed.

And what if all that was inspired by the commentary in this book. In this hypothetical world, Kak and Chosen would be catalysts towards my big life change.

And who are you to tell me that I can't do it? I've achieved overnight results before.

That's a very valid point my friend.

But I would say that 90% of the focus should be on what is right in front of you, while the other 10% is keeping an eye on what is going on around in the world.

The percentage may differ based on the country you live in and the industry in which you are working.

But either way, even that 10% of global awareness that you maintain, should be completely devoid of any negative emotions (e.g. anxiety), because that will only cripple you and make you irrational.


I've learned this lesson the hard way during the covid era:

What happens around you may not always be under your control, but what is happening within you should be 100% under your control.

And who are you to tell me that I can't do it? I've achieved overnight results before.

Of course you did!
Achieving your dream physique has never been easier!
Use the coupon code "heavy_industry" for your 50% off discount!*

*Terms and conditions may apply. Results may vary.

 

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[Guest-5ty5s4]

Little stitious. Lol.

Here's something I've learned from the forum.

I'm not sure if you were here for the Atlas shrugged reading group. It was pretty early on in my time at The Forum, and I remember arguing with people like @Kak . Like in my mind, these people were crazy. This kind of stuff was never going to happen. Okay, maybe not never, but DEFINITELY not in my lifetime. I was confident anyone who thought that was smoking crack. Just straight crazy talk.

And then COVID hit. And I saw "everything" that we talked about in that thread come to pass.

2 days ago I was pretty sure this stuff wasn't going to happen. Literally one day later, and I'm like hmm maybe that That Chosen One has a point...

I never say never anymore...

Except for when I do. Lol.

Thank you BD (the good BD) - I appreciate that so much. It hasn’t all come to pass, but a lot of crazy stuff has happened rather quickly. Maybe we can see it rectified. I really believe we all have a lot more power than we think though - building big businesses and changing the world? How about changing this landscape as well? I believe it.

You keep worrying about things that you have absolutely no control over.

The real answer to this question: it doesn't matter.

Winners will keep winning. Losers will keep losing.

The world economy is more complex than anyone can possibly comprehend. Trying to predict the future in a system that has hundreds of thousands of variables is preposterous.

Pandemics, wars, civil unrest, new scientific discoveries, natural disasters, a F*cking meteorite. Anything can happen at any time without warning.

Focus on the things that you actually have control over. If you know how to achieve success, you will be able to survive or even thrive in any economy.

Like BD said, we do have a lot of power over these things. Staying informed - somewhat - (I ain’t waTching Fox or CNN, hell no) is good just to know how to adjust your business and investments. I mean the PPP situation was pretty critical for us a few years back… and now when they resume payments.

Fedcoins will be important if that comes to pass (which I don’t like and hope not, but it’s still important to know about).

You can always move states or even countries if necessary. There are other, more minor things you can do like moving manufacturing overseas and stuff…

And of course, a legendary entrepreneur who has the power to go from nobody to a household name worth millions with many employees, surely has the leadership ability to make a bit of a positive societal difference, but uh, I digress..

 

[BizyDad]

Thank you BD (the good BD)

The only BD. The other guy is BD43.

 

[Kak]

The only BD. The other guy is BD43.

Big Douche

 

[BizyDad]

Big Douche

Somebody is salty they lost a rap battle

 

[Kak]

Somebody is salty they lost a rap battle

Sorry, I meant Big_Douche43



Lol I don’t know about the “chill” part, but it got dragon pretty right.

 

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[socaldude]

Even if the FED lowers rates to prevent a financial crisis. They will have to raise rates again or say goodbye to reserve currency status. This is a fact. I know this to be true.

Now given banks configured their capital structure given zero percent interest rates. The solvency hierarchy will FLIP based on risk/return. Depositors and common stock holders will both LOSE.

There is no other way out. A financial crisis is inevitable.

I do believe crypto and tech starts ups will play a role in a collapse.

Holding hard assets like gold or even anything like high end assets like guitars and watches will win.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

I don't believe raising rates works to curtail inflation. The money supply appears to be the main factor, and while cutting rates certainly causes a boom and raising them certainly slows things down, once the new money enters the system, prices do not appear to go back to their pre-new-money levels over a longer period of time... All of that printed money still exists!

Argentina is a good example (interest rates have been as high as 78% with inflation as high as 100%)

Argentina hikes interest rate 300 basis points after inflation breaks 100% barrier

Argentina's central bank board said it agreed to hike the country's benchmark interest rate by 300 basis points to 78% on Thursday after annual inflation hit 100% for the first time in over three decades.

www.reuters.com

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/04/06/why-70-inflation-is-just-one-of-argentina-s-problems-quicktake/0d56242a-d499-11ed-ac8b-cd7da05168e9_story.html

I guess the disconnect is really between inflation and rate of inflation, like the difference between velocity and acceleration.

 

[ZF Lee]

What if I decide to start an anti-fed blog, and then write a book, and then become a speaker, warning about the ills of the Fed.

And what if all that was inspired by the commentary in this thread? In this hypothetical world, Kak and Chosen would be catalysts towards my big life change.

The entire Agora financial network with Jim Rickards thrives on this

Gold standard for marketing financial education products. But I think some folks complained about their preference for Trump and right-politics, because I don't get their longer write-ups in my inbox anymore.

Whatever emails I get from them now jumps quicker to the sales pitch.

I have also not gotten a James Altucher-written article in my inbox too, ever since he wrote a viral piece on how NY was going to Neptune. Got a lot of flak for it. Now I just see guest writers in his emails.

But you also might miss a macroeconomic force that will wipe out your business.

Whereas if you were paying attention, you could have gotten out of there sooner. Let's not act like there wasn't warning for what happened in Ukraine.

Guess Ray Dalio's work on Principles and Big Debt Crisis should come back popular on the Forum again.

When I first read the latter, I was amazed at how he studied all the past financial crashes, and laid out an entire cycle of debt booms and busts that would repeat over and over. It's not a crystal ball, but cycles do repeat.

Here's the sparknotes:

A Two-Part Look at: 1. Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises, and 2. How They Apply to What’s Happening Now

Now that we are at the beginning of a new year, it seems appropriate to review the timeless and universal mechanics of money and debt cycles and the principles for dealing with them, and then to apply these to what’s happening now. I will do the first of these today and the second in a week or two.

www.linkedin.com

 

[Kevin88660]

There is online rumor in Chinese language about JPM holding large and dangerous short positions in gold, amounting to tens of thousands of tons of gold.

Couldn’t find any discussion about that in English online.

 

[Kevin88660]

Fed Chair Powell meets Chinese counterpart Yi Gang

The heads of the U.S. and Chinese central banks met in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, the People's Bank of China said in a statement Friday.

www.cnbc.com

Xi meets Brazil's Lula amid calls to shake up Western-led order

South American nation signs deals with biggest trading partner China

asia.nikkei.com

 

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[Kevin88660]

Pakistan Drops US Dollar, Euro To Trade With China In RMB Yuan - Silk Road Briefing

Professor Ahsan Iqbal, Pakistan’s Minister of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives, has stated that Pakistan is a long-time supporter of China’s efforts to expand the use of the Renminbi (RMB) as a global currency. China has been ramping up support for RMB clearing and settlement in its...

www.silkroadbriefing.com

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

At first I thought that the reason the dollar was being "dropped" around the world was due to inflation. That didn't make sense though, because every currency was also fiat and also experiencing inflation.

Then I read about Biden's actions against Russia and Russian banks and it made more sense. The thing was that for the longest time, US currency was neutral and was used for exchange worldwide. Only recently was the dollar actually politicized - before, it was only threatened to be used politically.

Now that it's being used politically, all of these countries are dropping it as the real exchange currency.

It's not a good thing for America.

What's more, Biden "making good on the threat" isn't that great because most people don't see it or understand it... and the consequences are not very big either, as you can see, because Russia has alternatives (China, BRICS, etc.)

Biden is playing checkers. We have dumb leaders.

 

[Xeon]

This is why the world needs Trump back. Especially to prevent a war here in Asia. The world demands Trump to be back asap to save humanity.

 

[Kevin88660]

This is why the world needs Trump back. Especially to prevent a war here in Asia. The world demands Trump to be back asap to save humanity.

Unlikely to happen since U.S. Navy more than once disobeyed higher orders from Washington to fire provocative shots at the Chinese fleet or bases in the South China Sea during stare-downs.

The message I am getting is that men and women in uniforms feel that this is just a job and there is no honor in risking life to die for causes, that in their pov, are clearly unrelated to defending the homeland.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/09/14/peril-woodward-costa-trump-milley-china/

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8uKCCs44oY