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My Personal Warning Alarm On Coronavirus - 1 MILLION+ Deaths

Rivoli

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I don't know where and how the WHO calculated the number. It seems to match deaths divided by infected cases. However, of those infected now some might still die. I think the number could be even higher. If I base my estimations on Italy alone, since I trust their numbers more than those of China. They have 144 deaths and 414 cured. That's a 25% death rate from all 'closed' cases.

A serious thing that the CDC pundits keep hinting at but most people are missing - there’s a huge amount of people who have the virus and won’t show symptoms. Meaning they don’t get factored in the death rates. Theres a sort of survivor bias going on. Death rate can be even less than 1%.
 
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Rivoli

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"buT iF YouR yoUNg, yoU woNT Die" = Bullshit.

Think about this: you are sick as F*ck in the hospital bed, as well as other members in your family, and someone in your family dies. Yet, you are completely out of it cause you're sick, and although you don't die, you couldn't say your goodbyes.


Come on dude. The official number is >80% get no to minor symptom. The first dude who got it in Germany got it thought it was just a cough got it Friday, was fine by Monday.

Some of the first 9 people who got it in UK? 8 out of 9 had “very minor symptoms”

where’s the hospital stay??


Cruise passenger who got it? “I never felt really unwell”


You’re eating up the hype. This virus is a NOTHINGBURGER.

The truth is, China is a poor country. It’s people are malnourished. The per capita GDP is like 9k. It always gets hit harder, and the virus was horribly managed there.
 

biggeemac

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Since this thread is full of opinion and conjecture, I'll offer a voice of counter reason also based on conjecture: I'm prepared for the worst, but I'm gonna speculate that it blows over by the summertime.

The key metric (country) I'm watching is South Korea which very much mimics Western civilization in terms of work, industry, and freedoms.
Yes to this......totally agree. One thing though, they are doing a lot of testing and surveillance, allowing them to quarantine and treat people. We in the US are not acting fast enough to replicate S Korea. I'm also keeping an eye on countries with decent healthcare and 75+ degree weather and if the virus spreads as quickly in those countries.
 

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AgainstAllOdds

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I'm prepared for the worst, but I'm gonna speculate that it blows over by the summertime.

This is the correct approach.

Investing any time into corona past a satisfactory prep period is idiotic.

If you're going to die, you're going to die. If you're not going to die, then you should be focusing on growing yourself as a person and your business.

Head down. Push forward. Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. It's the only sensible way to live instead of spending so much mental energy on something you can't control.
 

Veloce Grey

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LOL, no sooner did I post that then this popped-up...

View attachment 30886
Here in NZ it's gone to (at least) 4 cases, Australia is at 60+, despite the fact it's a week past summer and still warm. How that plays out short term should provide a decent idea as to how the warmer weather will affect it in a comparable country like the US. The fact people are still outdoors more of the day must be helping though versus winter inside at close quarters.

Finding decent alcohol based hand sanitiser for when you're out and about is already very difficult here now.
 
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Fox

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“What’s the best business to invest in during Corona???”

Your own.

While everyone is panicking you can stay on point and make massive progress.

If you are prepared for the worst (one day to prep) you hit that stage when it comes.

How much time are you spending on this right now? How much is actually productive.

Prep and prepare, then back to work.
 

biggeemac

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Here in NZ it's gone to (at least) 4 cases, Australia is at 60+, despite the fact it's a week past summer and still warm. How that plays out short term should provide a decent idea as to how the warmer weather will affect it in a comparable country like the US. The fact people are still outdoors more of the day must be helping though versus winter inside at close quarters.

Finding decent alcohol based hand sanitiser for when you're out and about is already very difficult here now.
Thats a really good point.....perhaps the reason that the flu doesnt spread as easily in the summer is because people are not indoors as much.
 

Kak

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@James Fend what qualifies you to opine with such authority?

I am taking the virus seriously, but I am not so bold as to declare what it will or will not do. As @MJ DeMarco said... This is loaded with conjecture.
 
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Rivoli

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Here

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“What’s the best business to invest in during Corona???”

Your own.

While everyone is panicking you can stay on point and make massive progress.

If you are prepared for the worst (one day to prep) you hit that stage when it comes.

How much time are you spending on this right now? How much is actually productive.

Prep and prepare, then back to work.
Good point, but it's way more fun to worry about the virus. (My productivity the past few days is ... embarassing)
 
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YoungPadawan

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I think it's overhyped. I've lived through the times when people were flipping out over swine flu, bird flu, Ebola, etc. and it always ends the same. The world doesn't end.
 

biggeemac

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I think it's overhyped. I've lived through the times when people were flipping out over swine flu, bird flu, Ebola, etc. and it always ends the same. The world doesn't end.
There is a lot of bad/inaccurate/INCOMPLETE data out on the internet, mass media, and forums such as TMF . The deal is, we are all seeking to understand and control a perceived threat that, quite frankly, we cannot control. The best thing we can all do right now is beef up our sanitation and mitigation procedures, stock up a few things in case the hoards buy them all up, and continue doing what we do with our personal businesses. AND, look for opportunities as things unfold. Good hunting !!
 

James Fake

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How much do you want to wager on that? I'll bet $5,000 there are under 30 million bodies by June 15. Care to take me up on it?

Lol. I think @lowtek was more so pointing out how it's more entirely possible than from initial glance. With healthcare advanced as it is today, I doubt a number that high, nor would nations allow a 3rd world country getting hit hard for maximum damage.

I think it will all end cause the virus mutated into a weaker form (kind of like the flu today). Weird but viruses are quite "smart" in that it'll adjust strengths if it starts killing off too many hosts or immunity builds up.

The key metric (country) I'm watching is South Korea which very much mimics Western civilization in terms of work, industry, and freedoms.
We in the US are not acting fast enough to replicate S Korea.

Double agree. One thing that concerns me is that it's culturally ingrained to wear masks. So not only did they have a fairly ample supply, people are also willing to totally wear them out and about without being looked at like a weirdo. That and they were much more efficient in testing.

Also, from what I gather, they tested a good chunk of people before they even showed symptoms, so if they were tested positive and in the higher age, etc. then they had a head start in treatment. Pretty much the reverse here.

Just from a rough count, I think 2 or 3 replies even here on this thread leaned more towards: "You idiot, don't go in if you have no symptoms." or "Even if you do, don't go to the hospital".

I think it may be more of a culture difference which may be next to impossible to replicate Korea.

If you're going to die, you're going to die. If you're not going to die, then you should be focusing on growing yourself as a person and your business.

Agreed. I think I more so say, my main thing is:

Worry for yourself so you don't get your parent or grandparent sick. Or someone else's parent or grandparent sick.

@James Fend what qualifies you to opine with such authority?

Exactly Zero. It's all just opinions of mine.

Like MJ said, a lot of it is based upon incomplete information. That's very true.
 

James Fake

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Just want to say this:

My whole goal about the thread is to raise awareness to things from perspectives that they may not have seen. The end goal: To help people. I risk every bit of looking like a Complete Fool to do it.

Yes, there are many i's and t's that are not dotted and crossed in my paragraphs, but I think some may be overlooking the title of the chapter.

I definitely understand and can see where many are coming from. It's a mixed response as I suspected. Some even as subliminal jabs at my intelligence/character, but most saying things along the lines of 'I hear ya. Will be interesting to see what really unfolds'.

Either way, I think my main objective of getting awareness, to get forum members to view this was accomplished.

Therefore, I'm going to abstain from this thread going forward.

The goal was to never change minds. I'll keep all my thoughts of stuff from this point on the virus to myself as I'm not trying to convince anybody of anything other than "guys, the alleyway we're walking through might be a bit more sketchy than it looks or what the street signs say,... let's just watch ourselves a bit more closely."

I am not into the game of "told you so" so not going to return to this IF things do pan out (feel free to fact check the outcomes on the virus trading thread: Stock market Predictions with Corona , no matter how right a prediction played out, I don't even acknowledge it but maybe once or twice as a reference for my next point. If I'm wrong, I come in and admit I'm Wrong lol)

In 9-10 days.. Come around March 14-15th, I'll re-read this to myself and chuckle if the crazy numbers I project actually happened.

Anyways; I hope that this thread if things do get a bit on the coo-koo side will affect and help improve at least one life. I hope that one person refers to this thread in the very back of their mind and goes "Hm... that stupid guy on that forum did mention this, ah, what the hell, why not.." then proceed to do a suggested action.
 
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Johnny boy

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Great question man... Man, I wish I knew. I'm just decent at connecting dots, terrible at seeing anything beforehand!

My main objective was to shine light on that; I don't think this is going to be significantly more impacting than H1, Ebola, Zika, Swine, etc. or anything this century.

But my hunch: Depending on what countries it gets to.. 1 Million in a Year is low end globally. It could wipe out 100,000 easily alone in Africa and many other places where healthcare is lacking.
I'd love to wager. Care to put your money where your mouth is?
 

biophase

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Just want to say this:

My whole goal about the thread is to raise awareness to things from perspectives that they may not have seen. The end goal: To help people. I risk every bit of looking like a Complete Fool to do it.

Yes, there are many i's and t's that are not dotted and crossed in my paragraphs, but I think some may be overlooking the title of the chapter.

I definitely understand and can see where many are coming from. It's a mixed response as I suspected. Some even as subliminal jabs at my intelligence/character, but most saying things along the lines of 'I hear ya. Will be interesting to see what really unfolds'.

Either way, I think my main objective of getting awareness, to get forum members to view this was accomplished.

Therefore, I'm going to abstain from this thread going forward.

The goal was to never change minds. I'll keep all my thoughts of stuff from this point on the virus to myself as I'm not trying to convince anybody of anything other than "guys, the alleyway we're walking through might be a bit more sketchy than it looks or what the street signs say,... let's just watch ourselves a bit more closely."

I am not into the game of "told you so" so not going to return to this IF things do pan out (feel free to fact check the outcomes on the virus trading thread: Stock market Predictions with Corona , no matter how right a prediction played out, I don't even acknowledge it but maybe once or twice as a reference for my next point. If I'm wrong, I come in and admit I'm Wrong lol)

In 9-10 days.. Come around March 14-15th, I'll re-read this to myself and chuckle if the crazy numbers I project actually happened.

Anyways; I hope that this thread if things do get a bit on the coo-koo side will affect and help improve at least one life. I hope that one person refers to this thread in the very back of their mind and goes "Hm... that stupid guy on that forum did mention this, ah, what the hell, why not.." then proceed to do a suggested action.

If that was your goal I don't think you succeeded. Your post comes off more like you are yelling at people and spouting your own opinions mixing them in with few facts. Then the fact that you didn't want others responding just made it all seem disingenuous. To me, this whole thread seems like an ego trip.
 

James Fake

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If that was your goal I don't think you succeeded. Your post comes off more like you are yelling at people and spouting your own opinions mixing them in with few facts. Then the fact that you didn't want others responding just made it all seem disingenuous. To me, this whole thread seems like an ego trip.

Hey Bio, I appreciate your honesty, and see your point of view. Absolutely right..
 
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Xeon

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Stop using and reading all those "mathematical models" that epidemiologists or data scientists are using to "predict" how many will die or get infected. Nature doesn't work that way.

Even modern weather forecasts, an invention of humans since 1835 (and we're supposed to be really good at this by now) isn't 100% accurate, not even close, let alone these primitive virus-prediction "Mathematical models".
 

AFMKelvin

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Just great... Now CNN JUST posts as their main headline "The US is not ready for a massive breakout" from some town hall meeting.

Just know... everything I say in my warning is from my own perspective on seeing things unfold out and it ringing alarms. I hope what they are saying on that town hall is the same AND the government takes action.

But unlikely not, because right now... I am THAT guy. And those guys on that Town Hall are likely being seen by the main public as THOSE guys.

Until they're not...

Believing what CNN tells you hahaha. The news are fearmongers. That's how they make their money.
 

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scott wisniewsk

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Stop listening to the news , all they do is fear mongering.
2002 west nile virus will kill us all
2004 sars will kill us all
2005 bird flu will kill us all
2009 swine flu will kill us all
2014 ebola will kill us all
2016 zika will kill us all
same fear campaign different year ,more people will die from the flu this year
 

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Boy that mass hysteria is no joke.

I'm gonna get some chinese tonight.

Live your life and stop believing everything on tv/online.

A minimim of 15 Million projected dead.lmao.

Yea, ok.
 

Bobby_italy

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Honestly knowing italians and the area where I live, the day the virus came on the news with the first case of the italian guy who got it, I knew full well a lot of people would be infected, I told my gf in 10 days it's going to be 2k people just watch... well I was wrong we're over 3k and I predicted that WITH THE FIRST CASE.

The guy(PATIENT1) was a complete MORON, he had clear signs of FLU and while not feeling well he went to SOCIAL EVENTS and PLAYED SOCCER(WHILE HAVING FLU), basically he came in contact with hundreds of people in a bunch of days...

Like even if it was normal flu why do you have to spread it while being so selfish?
People who were at lunch, dinner, events, games with him got contaged, not everyone but a good chunk, who then went on to spread the virus.

So how could this be prevented?
Well if the man was consciuos enough(like that german kid) and stayed at F*cking home for 2-3 days while having temprature instead of not giving a F*ck, it would've been much easier to chase down the people that came in contact with him... while right now a whole city is in quarantine and they're preparing to close other cities too.

The italian healthcare thank god is "free" so a lot of people are getting tested, but it's still not working perfectly and many people who were in short contact with contaged people can't get tests without waiting for 5/6 days(the symptoms disappear so they don't even get tested most of the time).

BUT this isn't such a serious threat to normal people and I feel like if the "weak" part of the population takes care and use masks etc.. we can survive with no problems at all, so many resources getting put in prevention and care, so many companies closed and people at home for what?
2/3 days of coughing and staying at home...

So yeah, if you can prevent it initially(like germany) just do it, either way it's not such a serious threat and once it starts spreading it's over, unless you put in quarantine whole countries, in italy there are 20 regions(including 2 islands) and even the most remote ones got cases of people with the virus.
 
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LuckyPup

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I don't know where and how the WHO calculated the number. It seems to match deaths divided by infected cases. However, of those infected now some might still die. I think the number could be even higher. If I base my estimations on Italy alone, since I trust their numbers more than those of China. They have 144 deaths and 414 cured. That's a 25% death rate from all 'closed' cases.

FYI death (or fatality) rate and mortality rate are two different things. What @James Fend is calling mortality is actually the death/fatality rate (number of reported deaths divided by number of reported cases). Mortality is number of deaths divided by total population. Big difference and not just semantics as proper terminology is very important. Misinformation begins with the use of improper terminology, conflation of terms, etc., and misinformation leads to noise, confusion, fear and panic.

While I'm here it's worth noting that the CDC has recognized that the virus has probably been in the US for several weeks (6-8) prior to the first diagnosed cases. This is important because:

1) The genie is out of the bottle and there is much more community acquired illness than anyone knows or is talking about.
2) The number of infections is probably much higher than reported, which makes the death rate (again, not to be confused with mortality rate) lower than reported. Moreover, many mild cases won't ever be reported, so the actual death rate will be lower still.
3) This is a fast-moving situation and much of what has been stated in this thread is already inaccurate and/or outdated. If you want real-time stats, this YouTube page is a good one:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw


My two cents:

1) The fact that this is a novel virus means higher severity, which means more fatalities in certain populations - emphasis on certain. Overall, this will come and go like MERS, SARS, ebola and all the other over-hyped contagions, and life will go on.

2) It's notable that there are few reported pediatric cases of C0VlD-19 and no deaths to date. This is curious, but it could mean that the symptoms are very mild in this population, so as not to be reported. This is both good and bad - good for kids, but bad for people that come into contact with kids, as the kids are unwitting carriers. Also, as opposed to SARS, C0VlD-19 does not seem to induce the cytokine storm in younger populations, which is very good news.

3) The Trump admin, like any other government, is downplaying things in order not to cause panic. If Obama were still in office, his admin would be doing the same thing. It's not a conspiracy, it's how governments work and history is rife with example after example. What bothers me most is how the issue is being politicized. Never let a good crisis go to waste, right? F-ing media.

4) The biggest threat, IMO, is the potential economic threat the virus poses, which is much larger than the physical threat. A "black swan" like this lays bare the fragility of globalization and global supply chains. Satellite imagery of China confirms that "the world's factory" is closed. Be prepared for more disruption. It could get bad.

 
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