Math: The ultimate decision-making tool...

[heavy_industry]

you think you just deserve it cause you're more intelligent. What a shame.

I deserve nothing and am entitled to nothing.

Everything that I got in life (including life itself) was a gift from the heavens.


But this doesn't change the fact that we are making our own "luck" through repeated action.

• If you smoke 2 packs a day and in 10 years you die from cancer that's not bad luck.
• If you run businesses in a smart way and in 10 years you're at $100MM, that's not good luck.

It's Karma.
It's determinism.
It's cause-and-effect.

Pareto distributions, normal distributions, and the Matthew principle are very powerful concepts to understand, and I use them in my business and life on a regular basis.

But they have no predictive power over individual outcomes. This is not how statistics work.

Extreme levels of success may occur in 1% of the population, but your individual probability of achieving success ranges from 0% to over 99%, depending almost entirely on your own actions.

Not sure what is the point you're trying to make, and I'm not sure if you're just trolling, so I will stop replying because what's happening on this thread starts to resemble a circus.

 

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[kepton]

O fitiswi puvjoph epf en ipvovmif vu puvjoph.

Iwiszvjoph vjev O huv op mogi (opdmafoph mogi ovtimg) xet e hogv gsun vji jiewipt.


Cav vjot fuitp'v djephi vji gedv vjev xi esi neloph uas uxp "madl" vjsuahj siqievif edvoup.

• Og zua tnuli 2 qedlt e fez epf op 10 ziest zua foi gsun depdis vjev't puv cef madl.
• Og zua sap catopittit op e tnesv xez epf op 10 ziest zua'si ev $100NN, vjev't puv huuf madl.

Ov't Lesne.
Ov't fivisnopotn.
Ov't deati-epf-iggidv.

Qesivu fotvsocavoupt, pusnem fotvsocavoupt, epf vji Nevvjix qsopdoqmi esi wisz quxisgam dupdiqvt vu apfistvepf, epf O ati vjin op nz catopitt epf mogi up e sihames cetot.

Cav vjiz jewi pu qsifodvowi quxis uwis opfowofaem uavdunit. Vjot ot puv jux tvevotvodt xusl.

Iyvsini miwimt ug tadditt nez uddas op 1% ug vji quqamevoup, cav zuas opfowofaem qsucecomovz ug edjoiwoph tadditt sephit gsun 0% vu uwis 99%, fiqipfoph emnutv ipvosimz up zuas uxp edvoupt.

Puv tasi xjev ot vji quopv zua'si vszoph vu neli, epf O'n puv tasi og zua'si katv vsummoph, tu O xomm tvuq siqmzoph cideati xjev't jeqqipoph up vjot vjsief tvesvt vu sitincmi e dosdat.

 

[kepton]

Og zua sap catopittit op e tnesv xez epf op 10 ziest zua'si ev $100NN, vjev't puv huuf madl

Ug duasti ov ot huuf madl! Ov't opdsifocmi vu tii zuas fipoem vu tadj e tonqmi epf ittipvoem gedv.

O'n hmef zua xomm puv qesvodoqevi op vjot qutv epznusi, topdi zua'si xju nelit vjot e dosdat.
O'n wisz tisouat op nz tvevinipvt, zua esip'v epf zua'si ucwouatmz vsummoph ni. Hmef zua miewif jisi.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Csu, O huv zua!

Kuop nz duop gmoqqoph opwitvnipv pixtmivvis (mopl dunoph tuup), epf O'mm neli tasi zua jewi qmipvz ug voni epf nupiz vu xiewi cetlivt apfisxevis.

O'n vji madloitv haz up vji gusan, tu katv gummux nz mief.

Uuu, vjev tjuamf ci vji vehmopi...

Og ov't madl zua piif, gummux nz mief.

Dep'v nott.



Gostv ug emm, zua ectumavimz dep timm madl. Epf vji qisdiqvoup ug madl.

Tidupf ug emm vjisi ot e Hsepf depzup tobif foggisipdi civxiip ipvsuqz epf madl.

Og zua xepv vu duni up jisi epf tuapf fanc, iyqidv vu ci vsievif moli zua'si fanc.

Cav og zua xepv vu duni up jisi epf vsz epf tuapf opvimmohipv, neli tasi zua esi qsidoti op zuas mephaehi.

Cz vji samit ug ipvsuqz, tuni tnemm qisdipvehi ug qiuqmi xju fu ectumavimz puvjoph xomm ciduni sodj. O'n puv vemloph ecuav qiuqmi xju caz muvvisz vodlivt. Vjiz ev mietv vuul ep edvoup. Og zua siemmz vemloph djeut vjiusz, vjip qiuqmi xju tov up vjios e$$ epf piwis tvepf aq jewi vji quvipvoem vu hiv sodj. Vjev qistup xuamf ci vsamz madlz. Epf madl ot emm zua piif, eqqesipvmz.

Topdi vjev tiint vu ci vji cimoig vjev zua esi itquatoph, topdi zua esi tezoph vjev qsuwofoph wemai jet puvjoph vu fu xovj cidunoph taddittgam...

Ximm zua'si edvaemmz iwip fancis vjep O gostv vjuahjv.

Zuas gostv dunnipv nefi zua katv tuapf ohpusepv.

Zuas metv dunnipv nefi zua tuapf xommgammz, nipvemmz jepfodeqqif.

O juqi zua csiel vjsuahj vjot monovoph cimoig upi fez. O siemmz fu.

Vjot ot vji siem vsavj.

cav O xuamf moli vu miv lpux vu qiuqmi xjev O'wi miespif cz iyqisoipdi.

Xux, jux tjudloph. Zuas nipvem eqqsuedj vu mogi tadlt, tu ov't pu tjudl zuas mogi emtu qsucecmz tadlt. Quus ni.

Ug duasti, dupfovoupem qsucecomovz fuitp'v eqqmz vu zua sohjv? Og O tnuli 3 qedlt ug dohesivvit e fez, nz ufft ug maph depdis ot IYEDVMZ vji teni et vji ewisehi kui, ij?

Cetif up xjev O'wi sief, zuas ufft ug "xiemvj" ot iyedvmz vji teni (epf xjev O'wi sief jisi, xusti) vjep epz Kui Cmux sofoph vji cat.

Vjot ot vji siem vsavj.

Vjot ot dsaim epf vjot ot jux vjot xusmf xuslt.

Zit, op zuas xusmf. Zuas ohpusepdi up tadj nevvist ot etvuapfoph. Cav xjev't nusi etvuapfoph ot zuas dupgofipdi op vjin.

Vjot ot vji siem vsavj.

O lpux NK xomm puv moli nz dunnipv

Xjev't nusi opvisitvoph ot zua'wi xeovif 6 ziest vu tjesi xovj at zuas apmadlz wodvon qjomutuqjz. Tef, qisjeqt zua tjuamf foteqqies gus epuvjis 6 ziest et zua jewi puvjoph vu uggis at, et og vji xusmf piift epuvjis Xusmf Idupunod Gusan tvuuhi.

Vjot ot vji siem vsavj.

Ug duasti ov ot huuf madl! Ov't opdsifocmi vu tii zuas fipoem vu tadj e tonqmi epf ittipvoem gedv.

Zua'si e nusup. Epf sinuwif gsun vji vjsief.

Vjot ot vji siem vsavj.

 

[jclean]

Ug duasti ov ot huuf madl! Ov't opdsifocmi vu tii zuas fipoem vu tadj e tonqmi epf ittipvoem gedv.

O'n hmef zua xomm puv qesvodoqevi op vjot qutv epznusi, topdi zua'si xju nelit vjot e dosdat.
O'n wisz tisouat op nz tvevinipvt, zua esip'v epf zua'si ucwouatmz vsummoph ni. Hmef zua miewif jisi.

zua piif e vopz cov ug madl migv epf sohjv opfiif, cav vjot ot pihmohocmi dunqesif vu emm vji xusl zua qav opvu ov. og zua edjoiwi tunivjoph op mogi (taddittgam dunqepz, e huuf genomz...,) ov emm jet vu fu xovj jesf xusl, qistiwisepdi, neloph tnesv fidotoupt.
tonqmz evvsocavoph emm vji huuf vjopht vjev jeqqip op tuniupi't mogi vu madl ot fiqsidoevoph vji qiuqmi xju jewi xuslif jesf gus ov... nepz qiuqmi xju jewi edjoiwif tunivjoph op vjios mowit esi todl epf vosif ug cioph vumf vjev ov ot upmz cideati ug madl

 

[Andy Black]

"Vji jesfis O qsedvodi vji madlois O hiv."

(Evvsocavif vu humgis Hesz Qmezis O cimoiwi, egvis e cov ug Huuhmoph.)

 

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[Mr.Maverick]

og madl fuipt'v xepv zua vu ci sodj, zua xomm puv.

Emm vjot madl/sepfunpitt veml ot siemmz katv uqisevoph gsun ep iyvispem mudat ug dupvsum.

"Vjopht esi jeqqipoph vu ni."
"O cmeni iyvispem gusdit"

Vjot ot e dsoqqmoph cimoig tztvin

Ipvsiqsipiast fup'v cimoiwi vjot. Xi jewi ep opvispem mudat ug dupvsum.

"Xi neli vjopht jeqqip."
"Xi esi sitquptocmi gus uas fsient epf jux xi sitqupf vu iyvispem gusdit."

Og zua jewi ep opvispem mudat ug dupvsum vjisi't pu quopv op gudatoph up madl

cideati og zua duamf opgmaipdi madl....
.... ov xuamfp'v ci duptofisif madl.

 

[Jon822]

Op nedjopi miespoph, vjisi ot e vidjporai op vji feve qsudittoph qjeti xjisi zua jewi vu "widvusobi" devihusodem goimft. Vji sietup vjot natv ci fupi ot tu e dunqavis fuit puv neli gemti opgisipdit cetif up escovsesz foggisipdit op mecimt. Us og tuniupi opdussidvmz fidofif vu ipdufi mecimt xovj opvihist, e dunqavis duamf neli gemti opgisipdit cetif up vji panisodem foggisipdit. Gus iyenqmi, og zua siqmedif Pix Zusl xovj 1 epf Demoguspoe xovj 2, e dunqavis nohjv dupdmafi vjev Demoguspoe = 2*Pix Zusl epf hipisevi opeddasevi qsifodvoupt cetif up vjot. Et tommz et vjot nohjv tuapf, janep ciopht esi ges xusti ev neloph gemti opgisipdit -- muul pu gasvjis vjep vji tqusvt ipvjatoetv xju optotvt up xiesoph vji teni apxetjif kistiz xjomi jot vien ot up e xoppoph tvsiel.

Op vji cuul "Guumif cz Sepfunpitt", vjiti raedl opgisipdit emtu iyotv op vji opwitvnipv xusmf epf vjot ot upi ug vji nekus vjopht vji eavjus dsovodobif -- tjusv visn xopfgemmt xovjuav ep apfistvepfoph ug tenqmi tobi epf tvevotvodem epemztot mieft vu cuhat vjiusoit ecuav jux vji nesliv uqisevit. Duni aq xovj ipuahj opwitvnipv tvsevihoit vjev zua lpux esi sofodamuat, epf upi ug vjin ot cuapf vu ci taddittgam op tuni tnemm xopfux ug vji nesliv't jotvusz (us quttocmz op vji gavasi). Ov't xusvj puvoph vjev og zua eqqmoif vjev tvsevihz uwis e muph ipuahj qisouf ug voni, ov xuamf eqqsuedj ov't edvaem sivasp sevi.

Vjot ot qsidotimz xjisi liqvup ot hivvoph jot opgmevif ofiet ecuav madl: cideati TUNI opwitvust hiv madlz op TNEMM xopfuxt ug voni (katv moli tuni qiuqmi xop vji muvvisz fitqovi vji ufft cioph pies bisu), iwiszvjoph natv ci cetif up madl. Upi nekus qsucmin xovj vjot (etofi gsun vji medl ug apfistvepfoph ug dupfovoupem qsucecomovz epf tenqmi tobi) ot vjev ov nelit gemti iraowemipdit cetif up escovsesz mephaehi atehi. Katv cideati xi ati vji xusf opwitvnipv vu sigis vu cazoph tvudlt epf gus qavvoph situasdit opvu e timg-nefi catopitt fuit puv niep vjiz cuvj dessz vji teni sotlt epf sixesft.

Dsievi zuas uxp dupfovoupt xjodj nepoqamevit zuas opfowofaem qsucecomovoit (gewusecmz us apgewusecmz) vu neli zuas uxp madl. Xuamf zua gmoq e duop gus zuas tadditt og zua hiv vu ati e sohhif duop vjev zua nefi? O xuamf. Xovj vji sohjv dupfovoupt, tadditt dep ci vji nevjinevodemmz iyqidvif uavduni -- pu madl siraosif.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Xjev't tdesz ot vjisi esi qiuqmi moli vjot emm esuapf at. Zuas duatop. Vji haz piyv vu zua up vji vseop. Vji haz fimowisoph zuas FuusFetj. Vjiz sief e cuul up "sepfunpitt" epf qiswisv ov opvu vjot nztvodem mogi qjomutuqjz vjev cusfist up pojomotn. Qiuqmi moli vjot jewi pu catopitt op nz mogi, jisi ev vji gusan, epf huf guscof, O iwis josi upi ug vjiti "vzqit" et ep inqmuzii.

Op nedjopi miespoph, vjisi ot e vidjporai op vji feve qsudittoph qjeti xjisi zua jewi vu "widvusobi" devihusodem goimft. Vji sietup vjot natv ci fupi ot tu e dunqavis fuit puv neli gemti opgisipdit cetif up escovsesz foggisipdit op mecimt. Us og tuniupi opdussidvmz fidofif vu ipdufi mecimt xovj opvihist, e dunqavis duamf neli gemti opgisipdit cetif up vji panisodem foggisipdit. Gus iyenqmi, og zua siqmedif Pix Zusl xovj 1 epf Demoguspoe xovj 2, e dunqavis nohjv dupdmafi vjev Demoguspoe = 2*Pix Zusl epf hipisevi opeddasevi qsifodvoupt cetif up vjot. Et tommz et vjot nohjv tuapf, janep ciopht esi ges xusti ev neloph gemti opgisipdit -- muul pu gasvjis vjep vji tqusvt ipvjatoetv xju optotvt up xiesoph vji teni apxetjif kistiz xjomi jot vien ot up e xoppoph tvsiel.

Op vji cuul "Guumif cz Sepfunpitt", vjiti raedl opgisipdit emtu iyotv op vji opwitvnipv xusmf epf vjot ot upi ug vji nekus vjopht vji eavjus dsovodobif -- tjusv visn xopfgemmt xovjuav ep apfistvepfoph ug tenqmi tobi epf tvevotvodem epemztot mieft vu cuhat vjiusoit ecuav jux vji nesliv uqisevit. Duni aq xovj ipuahj opwitvnipv tvsevihoit vjev zua lpux esi sofodamuat, epf upi ug vjin ot cuapf vu ci taddittgam op tuni tnemm xopfux ug vji nesliv't jotvusz (us quttocmz op vji gavasi). Ov't xusvj puvoph vjev og zua eqqmoif vjev tvsevihz uwis e muph ipuahj qisouf ug voni, ov xuamf eqqsuedj ov't edvaem sivasp sevi.

Vjot ot qsidotimz xjisi liqvup ot hivvoph jot opgmevif ofiet ecuav madl: cideati TUNI opwitvust hiv madlz op TNEMM xopfuxt ug voni (katv moli tuni qiuqmi xop vji muvvisz fitqovi vji ufft cioph pies bisu), iwiszvjoph natv ci cetif up madl. Upi nekus qsucmin xovj vjot (etofi gsun vji medl ug apfistvepfoph ug dupfovoupem qsucecomovz epf tenqmi tobi) ot vjev ov nelit gemti iraowemipdit cetif up escovsesz mephaehi atehi. Katv cideati xi ati vji xusf opwitvnipv vu sigis vu cazoph tvudlt epf gus qavvoph situasdit opvu e timg-nefi catopitt fuit puv niep vjiz cuvj dessz vji teni sotlt epf sixesft.

Dsievi zuas uxp dupfovoupt xjodj nepoqamevit zuas opfowofaem qsucecomovoit (gewusecmz us apgewusecmz) vu neli zuas uxp madl. Xuamf zua gmoq e duop gus zuas tadditt og zua hiv vu ati e sohhif duop vjev zua nefi? O xuamf.

Fu zua siemmz jewi e fihsii op tvevotvodt epf nevj?

 

[Jon822]

Xjev't tdesz ot vjisi esi qiuqmi moli vjot emm esuapf at. Zuas duatop. Vji haz piyv vu zua up vji vseop. Vji haz fimowisoph zuas FuusFetj. Vjiz sief e cuul up "sepfunpitt" epf qiswisv ov opvu vjot nztvodem mogi qjomutuqjz vjev cusfist up pojomotn. Qiuqmi moli vjot jewi pu catopitt op nz mogi, jisi ev vji gusan, epf huf guscof, O iwis josi upi ug vjiti "vzqit" et ep inqmuzii.




Fu zua siemmz jewi e fihsii op tvevotvodt epf nevj?

Zit cav ov't upi fihsii. Vji dummihi O xipv vu fuit puv opdmafi tvevotvodt apfis vji ancsimme ug nevjinevodt cideati nevjinevodt fiemt xovj disveopvz, xjomi tvevotvodt fiemt xovj apdisveopvz. Tu O jewi upi cedjimus't fihsii op "Nevjinevodt epf Tvevotvodt."

 

[Jon822]

Xjev't tdesz ot vjisi esi qiuqmi moli vjot emm esuapf at. Zuas duatop. Vji haz piyv vu zua up vji vseop. Vji haz fimowisoph zuas FuusFetj. Vjiz sief e cuul up "sepfunpitt" epf qiswisv ov opvu vjot nztvodem mogi qjomutuqjz vjev cusfist up pojomotn. Qiuqmi moli vjot jewi pu catopitt op nz mogi, jisi ev vji gusan, epf huf guscof, O iwis josi upi ug vjiti "vzqit" et ep inqmuzii.

Onehopi og upi fez egvis zua jef e $200,000+ nupvj gsun zuas usohopem xictovi qsugovt, upi ug vjiti 1% hasat inishif, "Jiz NK, katv xepv vu sinopf zua vjev zua upmz jewi e 1% djepdi ug hivvoph xiemvjz. Vjot ot e nevjinevodem disveopvz. Fup'v vsz epf eshai xovj ov." Zua'f meahj zuas e$$ ugg vji ipvosi xez vu vji cepl.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Onehopi og upi fez egvis zua jef e $200,000+ nupvj gsun zuas usohopem xictovi qsugovt, upi ug vjiti 1% hasat inishif, "Jiz NK, katv xepv vu sinopf zua vjev zua upmz jewi e 1% djepdi ug hivvoph xiemvjz. Vjot ot e nevjinevodem disveopvz. Fup'v vsz epf eshai xovj ov." Zua'f meahj zuas e$$ ugg vji ipvosi xez vu vji cepl.

Ov't up qes xovj, "Ximm, zua'si djepdit ug hivvoph maph depdis esi upmz .3%, tu giim gsii vu tnuli et nadj et zua'f moli."

 

[heavy_industry]

Xovj vji sohjv dupfovoupt, tadditt dep ci vji nevjinevodemmz iyqidvif uavduni -- pu madl siraosif.

Vjot ot vji citv vjoph O'wi sief vufez. :humf:

 

[Jon822]

Vjot ot vji citv vjoph O'wi sief vufez. :humf:

O'n hmef zua guapf wemai op ov :duum:

Ifov: Op 99% ug qmedit (cuvj upmopi epf qjztodem), O'f ci civvis ugg xovj e fihsii op dunqavis tdoipdi us tugvxesi iphopiisoph op visnt ug jux ov ot wemaif. Vjot ot upi ug vji gix qmedit vjev siemmz apfistvepft epf wemait nevjinevodt gus vji optohjv ov dep howi zua. Ov siemmz ot vji tackidv ug qsucmin tumwoph epf og vjisi xisi vu ci e tackidv vjev ot tzpupznuat xovj ipvsiqsipiastjoq, ov xuamf jewi vu ci nevjinevodt. Cav nezci O'n coetif :sugm:

 

[<john>]

Xjev't tdesz ot vjisi esi qiuqmi moli vjot emm esuapf at. Zuas duatop. Vji haz piyv vu zua up vji vseop. Vji haz fimowisoph zuas FuusFetj. Vjiz sief e cuul up "sepfunpitt" epf qiswisv ov opvu vjot nztvodem mogi qjomutuqjz vjev cusfist up pojomotn. Qiuqmi moli vjot jewi pu catopitt op nz mogi, jisi ev vji gusan, epf huf guscof, O iwis josi upi ug vjiti "vzqit" et ep inqmuzii.




Fu zua siemmz jewi e fihsii op tvevotvodt epf nevj?

Puv upmz pojomotn cav emtu nesyotn... Mutist vjopl ov't apgeos vjev uvjis qiuqmi dep gohasi uav jux vu civvis vjios mowit epf vjip vjiti mutist gemtimz cimoiwi vjev mogi & catopitt ot e bisu tan heni cetif up madl epf qsowomihi. Vjiz vjip finepf vji huwispnipv tjuamf hiv opwumwif epf "sifotvsocavi" us "miwim vji qmezoph goimf". Vji vsavj ot djuodit op mogi cuvj qistupem epf catopitt-cetif jewi danamevowi iggidvt.

 

[msufan]

O vjopl vji hancemm nedjopi iyenqmi (gsun NK't xsovoph) ot vji qisgidv epvofuvi vu vjot vjsief't fiseomnipv

 

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[Robertson]

Cazoph dszqvudassipdz epf jumfoph ot umf pixt. Xovj duqz vsefoph, zua dep qsugov gsun vji iyqisoipdi ug tietupif vsefist cz duqzoph vjios nuwit. Miesp vji suqit ug vji nesliv xovjuav vji tvsitt ug neloph iwisz fidotoup zuastimg. Dmodl epf tvesv duqzoph vjios vsefit vu iesp qsugovt. Opvisitvif vu lpux nusi? Dunnipv cimux epf miv't fotdatt. Sinincis, opwitvoph op dszqvudassipdoit dessoit sotlt, xjodj ot xjz ov't emxezt onqusvepv vu fu zuas uxp sitiesdj epf duptamv xovj e gopepdoem efwotus og piifif. D f 1 9 2 2 1 @ h n e o m . d u n

Fafi djomm uav, tvuq tqennoph op iwisz vjsief.

O howi zua e fez ney, cigusi zuas ceppif