Math: The ultimate decision-making tool...

[heavy_industry]

you think you just deserve it cause you're more intelligent. What a shame.

I deserve nothing and am entitled to nothing.

Everything that I got in life (including life itself) was a gift from the heavens.


But this doesn't change the fact that we are making our own "luck" through repeated action.

• If you smoke 2 packs a day and in 10 years you die from cancer that's not bad luck.
• If you run businesses in a smart way and in 10 years you're at $100MM, that's not good luck.

It's Karma.
It's determinism.
It's cause-and-effect.

Pareto distributions, normal distributions, and the Matthew principle are very powerful concepts to understand, and I use them in my business and life on a regular basis.

But they have no predictive power over individual outcomes. This is not how statistics work.

Extreme levels of success may occur in 1% of the population, but your individual probability of achieving success ranges from 0% to over 99%, depending almost entirely on your own actions.

Not sure what is the point you're trying to make, and I'm not sure if you're just trolling, so I will stop replying because what's happening on this thread starts to resemble a circus.

 

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[kepton]

I deserve nothing and am entitled to nothing.

Everything that I got in life (including life itself) was a gift from the heavens.


But this doesn't change the fact that we are making our own "luck" through repeated action.

• If you smoke 2 packs a day and in 10 years you die from cancer that's not bad luck.
• If you run businesses in a smart way and in 10 years you're at $100MM, that's not good luck.

It's Karma.
It's determinism.
It's cause-and-effect.

Pareto distributions, normal distributions, and the Matthew principle are very powerful concepts to understand, and I use them in my business and life on a regular basis.

But they have no predictive power over individual outcomes. This is not how statistics work.

Extreme levels of success may occur in 1% of the population, but your individual probability of achieving success ranges from 0% to over 99%, depending almost entirely on your own actions.

Not sure what is the point you're trying to make, and I'm not sure if you're just trolling, so I will stop replying because what's happening on this thread starts to resemble a circus.

 

[kepton]

If you run businesses in a smart way and in 10 years you're at $100MM, that's not good luck

Of course it is good luck! It's incredible to see your denial to such a simple and essential fact.

I'm glad you will not participate in this post anymore, since you're who makes this a circus.
I'm very serious in my statements, you aren't and you're obviously trolling me. Glad you leaved here.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Bro, I got you!

Join my coin flipping investment newsletter (link coming soon), and I'll make sure you have plenty of time and money to weave baskets underwater.

I'm the luckiest guy on the forum, so just follow my lead.

Ooo, that should be the tagline...

If it's luck you need, follow my lead.

Can't miss.



First of all, you absolutely can sell luck. And the perception of luck.

Second of all there is a Grand canyon sized difference between entropy and luck.

If you want to come on here and sound dumb, expect to be treated like you're dumb.

But if you want to come on here and try and sound intelligent, make sure you are precise in your language.

By the rules of entropy, some small percentage of people who do absolutely nothing will become rich. I'm not talking about people who buy lottery tickets. They at least took an action. If you really talking chaos theory, then people who sit on their a$$ and never stand up have the potential to get rich. That person would be truly lucky. And luck is all you need, apparently.

Since that seems to be the belief that you are espousing, since you are saying that providing value has nothing to do with becoming successful...

Well you're actually even dumber than I first thought.

Your first comment made you just sound ignorant.

Your last comment made you sound willfully, mentally handicapped.

I hope you break through this limiting belief one day. I really do.

This is the real truth.

but I would like to let know to people what I've learned by experience.

Wow, how shocking. Your mental approach to life sucks, so it's no shock your life also probably sucks. Poor me.

Of course, conditional probability doesn't apply to you right? If I smoke 3 packs of cigarettes a day, my odds of lung cancer is EXACTLY the same as the average joe, eh?

Based on what I've read, your odds of "wealth" is exactly the same (and what I've read here, worse) than any Joe Blow riding the bus.

This is the real truth.

This is cruel and this is how this world works.

Yes, in your world. Your ignorance on such matters is astounding. But what's more astounding is your confidence in them.

This is the real truth.

I know MJ will not like my comment

What's more interesting is you've waited 6 years to share with us your unlucky victim philosophy. Sad, perhaps you should disappear for another 6 years as you have nothing to offer us, as if the world needs another World Economic Forum stooge.

This is the real truth.

Of course it is good luck! It's incredible to see your denial to such a simple and essential fact.

You're a moron. And removed from the thread.

This is the real truth.

 

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[jclean]

Of course it is good luck! It's incredible to see your denial to such a simple and essential fact.

I'm glad you will not participate in this post anymore, since you're who makes this a circus.
I'm very serious in my statements, you aren't and you're obviously trolling me. Glad you leaved here.

you need a tiny bit of luck left and right indeed, but this is negligible compared to all the work you put into it. if you achieve something in life (successful company, a good family...,) it all has to do with hard work, perseverance, making smart decisions.
simply attributing all the good things that happen in someone's life to luck is depreciating the people who have worked hard for it... many people who have achieved something in their lives are sick and tired of being told that it is only because of luck

 

[Andy Black]

"The harder I practice the luckier I get."

(Attributed to golfer Gary Player I believe, after a bit of Googling.)

 

[Mr.Maverick]

if luck doens't want you to be rich, you will not.

All this luck/randomness talk is really just operating from an external locus of control.

"Things are happening to me."
"I blame external forces"

This is a crippling belief system

Entrepreneurs don't believe this. We have an internal locus of control.

"We make things happen."
"We are responsible for our dreams and how we respond to external forces."

If you have an internal locus of control there's no point in focusing on luck

because if you could influence luck....
.... it wouldn't be considered luck.

 

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[Jon822]

In machine learning, there is a technique in the data processing phase where you have to "vectorize" categorical fields. The reason this must be done is so a computer does not make false inferences based on arbitrary differences in labels. Or if someone incorrectly decided to encode labels with integers, a computer could make false inferences based on the numerical differences. For example, if you replaced New York with 1 and California with 2, a computer might conclude that California = 2*New York and generate inaccurate predictions based on this. As silly as this might sound, human beings are far worse at making false inferences -- look no further than the sports enthusiast who insists on wearing the same unwashed jersey while his team is on a winning streak.

In the book "Fooled by Randomness", these quack inferences also exist in the investment world and this is one of the major things the author criticized -- short term windfalls without an understanding of sample size and statistical analysis leads to bogus theories about how the market operates. Come up with enough investment strategies that you know are ridiculous, and one of them is bound to be successful in some small window of the market's history (or possibly in the future). It's worth noting that if you applied that strategy over a long enough period of time, it would approach it's actual return rate.

This is precisely where kepton is getting his inflated ideas about luck: because SOME investors get lucky in SMALL windows of time (just like some people win the lottery despite the odds being near zero), everything must be based on luck. One major problem with this (aside from the lack of understanding of conditional probability and sample size) is that it makes false equivalences based on arbitrary language usage. Just because we use the word investment to refer to buying stocks and for putting resources into a self-made business does not mean they both carry the same risks and rewards.

Create your own conditions which manipulates your individual probabilities (favorably or unfavorably) to make your own luck. Would you flip a coin for your success if you get to use a rigged coin that you made? I would. With the right conditions, success can be the mathematically expected outcome -- no luck required.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

What's scary is there are people like this all around us. Your cousin. The guy next to you on the train. The guy delivering your DoorDash. They read a book on "randomness" and pervert it into this mystical life philosophy that borders on nihilism. People like this have no business in my life, here at the forum, and god forbid, I ever hire one of these "types" as an employee.

In machine learning, there is a technique in the data processing phase where you have to "vectorize" categorical fields. The reason this must be done is so a computer does not make false inferences based on arbitrary differences in labels. Or if someone incorrectly decided to encode labels with integers, a computer could make false inferences based on the numerical differences. For example, if you replaced New York with 1 and California with 2, a computer might conclude that California = 2*New York and generate inaccurate predictions based on this. As silly as this might sound, human beings are far worse at making false inferences -- look no further than the sports enthusiast who insists on wearing the same unwashed jersey while his team is on a winning streak.

In the book "Fooled by Randomness", these quack inferences also exist in the investment world and this is one of the major things the author criticized -- short term windfalls without an understanding of sample size and statistical analysis leads to bogus theories about how the market operates. Come up with enough investment strategies that you know are ridiculous, and one of them is bound to be successful in some small window of the market's history (or possibly in the future). It's worth noting that if you applied that strategy over a long enough period of time, it would approach it's actual return rate.

This is precisely where kepton is getting his inflated ideas about luck: because SOME investors get lucky in SMALL windows of time (just like some people win the lottery despite the odds being near zero), everything must be based on luck. One major problem with this (aside from the lack of understanding of conditional probability and sample size) is that it makes false equivalences based on arbitrary language usage. Just because we use the word investment to refer to buying stocks and for putting resources into a self-made business does not mean they both carry the same risks and rewards.

Create your own conditions which manipulates your individual probabilities (favorably or unfavorably) to make your own luck. Would you flip a coin for your success if you get to use a rigged coin that you made? I would.

Do you really have a degree in statistics and math?

 

[Jon822]

What's scary is there are people like this all around us. Your cousin. The guy next to you on the train. The guy delivering your DoorDash. They read a book on "randomness" and pervert it into this mystical life philosophy that borders on nihilism. People like this have no business in my life, here at the forum, and god forbid, I ever hire one of these "types" as an employee.




Do you really have a degree in statistics and math?

Yes but it's one degree. The college I went to does not include statistics under the umbrella of mathematics because mathematics deals with certainty, while statistics deals with uncertainty. So I have one bachelor's degree in "Mathematics and Statistics."

 

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[Jon822]

What's scary is there are people like this all around us. Your cousin. The guy next to you on the train. The guy delivering your DoorDash. They read a book on "randomness" and pervert it into this mystical life philosophy that borders on nihilism. People like this have no business in my life, here at the forum, and god forbid, I ever hire one of these "types" as an employee.

Imagine if one day after you had a $200,000+ month from your original website profits, one of these 1% gurus emerged, "Hey MJ, just want to remind you that you only have a 1% chance of getting wealthy. This is a mathematical certainty. Don't try and argue with it." You'd laugh your a$$ off the entire way to the bank.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Imagine if one day after you had a $200,000+ month from your original website profits, one of these 1% gurus emerged, "Hey MJ, just want to remind you that you only have a 1% chance of getting wealthy. This is a mathematical certainty. Don't try and argue with it." You'd laugh your a$$ off the entire way to the bank.

It's on par with, "Well, you're chances of getting lung cancer are only .3%, so feel free to smoke as much as you'd like."

 

[heavy_industry]

With the right conditions, success can be the mathematically expected outcome -- no luck required.

This is the best thing I've read today.

 

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[Jon822]

This is the best thing I've read today.

I'm glad you found value in it

Edit: In 99% of places (both online and physical), I'd be better off with a degree in computer science or software engineering in terms of how it is valued. This is one of the few places that really understands and values mathematics for the insight it can give you. It really is the subject of problem solving and if there were to be a subject that is synonymous with entrepreneurship, it would have to be mathematics. But maybe I'm biased

 

[<john>]

What's scary is there are people like this all around us. Your cousin. The guy next to you on the train. The guy delivering your DoorDash. They read a book on "randomness" and pervert it into this mystical life philosophy that borders on nihilism. People like this have no business in my life, here at the forum, and god forbid, I ever hire one of these "types" as an employee.




Do you really have a degree in statistics and math?

Not only nihilism but also marxism... Losers think it's unfair that other people can figure out how to better their lives and then these losers falsely believe that life & business is a zero sum game based on luck and privilege. They then demand the government should get involved and "redistribute" or "level the playing field". The truth is choices in life both personal and business-based have cumulative effects.

 

[msufan]

I think the gumball machine example (from MJ's writing) is the perfect antidote to this thread's derailment

 

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[Robertson]

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Dude chill out, stop spamming in every thread.

I give you a day max, before your banned