Is a market crash coming? Or massive hyper-inflation?

[Taylor02]

Hi All,

Recently I have been doing a lot of reading around historic market crashes, current state of affairs across a myriad of industries and economics in general.

I am interested in discussing with my fellow Fastlaners their views on the state of the economy both nationally and globally and their future predictions of what they see unfolding. I am writing from the perspective of someone based from the UK.

My research to date has highlighted the following:

1. It is clear that we have been in a bull market for a prolonged period of time since around 2009 onwards that has only seen a temporary dip when the Corona Virus pandemic struck.
2. Interest rates for borrowing such as mortgages are still at an all time low. This is unprecedented, if there was to be a shift in variables it could drastically effect the vast amount of peoples ability to pay on their current loans and default.
3. The amount of relief provided in the UK and that is still on going through schemes such as Furlough has seen our national debt at an all time high only rivalled since debt levels from WW2. Additionally, I believe that I read that the US has printed 22% of all the US dollars in circulation in 2020 alone...
4. The valuation of certain company's such as Tesla are outrageous. Don't get me wrong, Elon is doing amazing things and has interesting projects and technology's in the pipeline but no company's PE Ratio should be 1,232. So in essence the PE Ratio is currently trading at $1,232 per $1 of earning... High right?
5. Crypto currency's in general a plethora of the coins are still seeing rises linked to a bull market even though some of the technology's behind them are not leading the charge such as Doge Coin.
6. The property market. In the UK I work for a property developers and it is clear at the moment that the market is beginning to slow. This was artificially stimulated throughout 2021 during the pandemic when the government provided Stamp Duty and Land Tax (SDLT) relief on property purchases up to the value of £500k. For any readers from outside of the UK this can save an individual up to £15k if they were to move or purchase a property. Now that this relief is coming to a close it has resulted in a slow in demand in the market.

These are just a few of my observations but I would be interested to hear other peoples thoughts on this.

In my opinion something has to give at some point... It can't be good times forever. The pandemic's effects I don't believe have still not truly been felt as there should be a spoke in unemployment rates once the Furlough Scheme comes to a close, in the UK anyway. 2022 I think will prove to be an interesting year.

Just my 2 cents.

Best,

S

I am also UK based and am very concerned about where our economy is heading. I am looking at the costs of everyday living and seeing much higher prices to suggest inflation is really starting to take off.

I live near a major UK port and know many EU drivers have left the UK to return to Europe. This has led to a shortage of drivers and goods / higher prices. The Pandemic has also given a huge labour shortage as people are being paid to stay at home, again inflating prices of goods.

At the same time our money is being devalued and more money chasing the same good/services has pushed prices up and given us less for our British pound.

All in all no good news so far!!!

I've also seen the property market slow but only after prices went parabolic. I can't work out if Inflation continues will this increase or decrease property? Maybe someone smarter than me will know the answer?

Personally I allocate a small amount monthly to stocks and shares but not too much as I am worried about the market being in a bubble and crashing. My main monthly investments are now BTC ETH Gold & Silver (Canadian Maples when I can get them).

The reason for my investing strategy is - I really believe we have kicked the can long enough and are coming to the end of the road.

Our monetary system is about to be replaced and we will lose financially when this happens. Also with inflation robbing us through back door taxation, I see the crypto and physical metals as best to beat inflation.

I also want my money out of the banking system should banks start to fall.

As for property I am buying a house which I don't want to but the Mrs does (Happy wife happy life) I feel the market will crash and I would prefer to wait. The way I have justified the purchase is to look at it as buying the debt rather than the house.

I have secured a 5 year fixed rate at 1.09% Historically this is very low and will offer me some protection should my my businesses decline as the great depression bites.

So the good news

You can beat inflation and what is going to happen when Fiat currencies fail. You can still acquire property at BMV and very cheap rates and there will be some exciting opportunities for business owners as the world is reset.

What I do buy/do every month to keep moving forward and stay ahead when the crash fully happens.

60% BTC
20% ETH
10% Other crypto (speculation)
10% Gold & Silver

I buy debt as cheaply as possible on long term fixed rates.
Invest in building my own businesses to give me an income and stay ahead of inflation.

As a new member this was my first reply to a post and I hope it was helpful.

 

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[Kak]

We've been talking about a market crash around here for years. It did happen on several occasions only to recover shortly thereafter. I think the market is due for a pull-back, but not something enduring.

I believe there is too much inflationary pressure to keep equity prices low -- cash is trash and is becoming more and more worthless by the day.

$10000 in the bank is becoming more risky than $10000 in Amazon stock.

In 6 months, your $10000 will be worth $9200 and your Amazon stock $11,000.

This keeps equity prices rising.

Yep. A bit of a melt up.

 

[Silverfox148]

Great, how are you going to profit from it? You placed bets on it yet? I know I have.

 

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[Tourmaline]

It won't happen. Everyday more people are going all in into crypto with Elon Musk leading the charge. In this new age, financial wealth can only go to the moon. There was an article some time back saying that the government and bankers have manipulated the stock market to the point that it's not possible for it to crash like the ones we saw in 10 and 20 years ago. People have been talking about market crash since 2017 due to the 10 year crash theory but I don't see it happening. Maybe the stock markets bend to Elon's Will.

Things have definitely changed. There's a lot of sentiment investing now instead of fundamentals investing.

The rules of money say it's impossible for it not to crash again.

I'd also ask how many of those same people said the '08 crash would never happen.

 

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[Guest-5ty5s4]

I think you underestimate how much of a sheep people are.

You would like to think you will fight tooth and nail, but human nature suggests at least 90% plus will do as they are told.

The statistical probability is that if you where in Germany you would have sided with the nazis as well.

This is true.

I think people dramatically underestimate how bad things can get too, and the awful things governments do to their citizens.

People need to read more history.

And anyone saying “that couldn’t happen here in the USA” is being a sheep as well (for this I am referring to communism or state ownership of assets and seizure of property, but could extend to genocide, one party rule, military rule, etc etc etc)

 

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[Kevin88660]

What market are you talking about? There are thousands of "markets" and not all of them are doing well.

Several are doing tremendously poorly (check out most of the commodities markets).

And, if you're talking about the economy as a whole, an argument can be made that it's currently pretty crappy, other than a few specific asset classes.

Yes. Paper money outperformed a lot of investment vehicles. Commodities were hot from 2000-2011. Every cycle is not the same. Jumping into the market just for the sake of fearing inflation could have a bad surprise.

 

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[Timmy C]

They keep kicking the can down the road.

Homeowners behind on their mortgages could get a reprieve on any foreclosures until 2022

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is looking to give homeowners in C0VlD-19 forbearance programs a reprieve from foreclosure proceedings until 2022.

www.cnbc.com

You think your playing checkers then they change the game and rules on you.

Being a good investor doesn't exist now. It's all based on luck and what our rulers decide happens.

A useless skill if government can just intervene at every turn and change the game.

 

[Timmy C]

That's also a problem.

The US Federal Reserve already has massive power over the US (and thus, the world) economy. Recently they have started buying corporate debt (buying bonds).

That means in a worst case scenario, they would be the creditor for those companies...

Governments are manipulating economies in new and bizarre ways, and where it leads is yet to be seen because it hasn't happened yet...

Here is the (heavily PC and spun up / biased) summary: The Fed starts buying corporate bonds

Good article on what happens to bondholders when a company goes under: What Happens to Bondholders When a Company Goes Bankrupt?

Think about it. Connect the dots. I don't like what I see.

edit: also, "people have said this for 10 plus years" - uh yeah, 2008 was only 13 years ago

2008 financial crisis didn't really effect Australia at all.

We where unscathed and nothing changed so I cant relate.

For my lifetime of 30 years I've only seen property go up and up.

 

[Timmy C]

Inflation numbers come out tomorrow and they are gonna look great. LOL

Spot on with the target rate. LOL

Of course, they are!!
Haven't you heard?
Inflation is only 0.0000013 %
See, CPI is right on track.

''Everything you need for your day-to-day life is not included in the CPI, and these basket of items have not gone up, therefore.

THERE IS NO INFLATION''

- Central Bank.

 

[Deleted78083]

Inflation was 4.2% in April, according to CNBC.

From here on, we have three options.

Option A: Nothing changes, they let the deficit, the money printer, and inflation run ----> this will slow the economy, and prices will come back down. The stock market bubble will explode due to grim economic outlook.

Option B: They rise interest rates and stop giving free money----> this will slow the economy, and prices will come back down. The stock market bubble will explode due to grim economic outlook.

Option C: A coup happens, the president is now a comrade, and prices are dictated by the state. The stock market is abolished before it crashes.

Consequence: sell your overvalued stocks and shitty altcoins.

What to invest in now?

- Real estate is overpriced
- Stocks are overpriced
- Who is still buying gold (besides Peter Shiff)?
- Crypto will tank due to margin calls, although it remains one of the safest investment right now (BTC and ETH)
- Bond's value will be crushed when they raise rates

IMO alternative assets look great: fancy cars, art, champagne. Maybe a small-town supermarket is the best investment right now.

 

[Deleted78083]

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".

I love that quote.

My own 0.02€:

You could estimate that the current market is overpriced because the price of money is correct.

In that case:
1. The crash will happen when those that own the above-quoted assets will sell them. That could happen in 2 situations.

a. They estimate the asset grew enough and sell to cash in.

b. They need cash to put food on the table.

At the moment, the government is giving money to anyone, so it is unlikely to happen. The reason why so much money is going into Tesla, btc etc is because on one hand, people can't spend it anywhere else cuz cOrOnA, and on the other, government is printing, and that money has to end up somewhere.

Side note: why is the gvt giving money since 2009? One word: growth. Our society has stopped growing, and that causes a huge politico-socialo-economic problem. Gvt hoped they could sustain growth by printing but lol they never heard about productivity per capita apparently.

Read "The rise and fall of American growth", or listen to Peter Thiel and Eric Weinstein.

2. As long as government is printing, it keeps the bubble afloat, and even grow it.

There will come a time when:

a. The gvt will stop printing
b. We ll have to refund what was borrowed

Then expect the bubble to pop. Whatever we printed will have to be refunded. And who will refund the money? People that have it.

The other vision: there is no bubble.

In that case, you decide that whatever asset price you see is correct, and that money hasn't yet caught up to its real price (inflation is coming). When you think about it, TSLA at its current price would make more sense if minimum salary was 50$ per hour, no?

As such, this vision would pretend that the stock market is not overdue, but actually represents the future.

I don't believe in this, because I don't believe in inflation as long as production remains steady and consumption doesn't rise.

Conclusion: it's kinda tough. We're living in a brand new economic paradigm, one where there is a lot of printing without government rates getting higher, and where the demographic pyramid is inversed.

I think this is a bubble, and that it will all pop eventually, in a situation meeting all of these conditions:

1. Economy opens back, rona is dead, people can go back on holidays and no longer wish to spend money on assets
2. Government stops printing
3. Government raises taxes because unemployment is high,
4. Government raises taxes because it's time to refund the money we've spent during lockdown.
5. The asset prices are so incredibly high that "omg let's cash in".


I mean, the inflation of asset value was logical: if you close everything, people dont have any ways to spend their money + you give them money = let's invest. WSB and Robinhood didn't help either.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

Not just the US Government, but governments worldwide.

Could this be the plan of the “Great Reset?”

Royally f*ck up the global economy with loads of debt and sugar high stimulus, then pull the plug with no parachute?

 

[PeterBoss]

Not to be political here, but, if 90% of the general public loved lockdowns and destroying the economy for covid...

they aren't going to say a god d*** thing about inflation/money printing, so long as your local greasy politician keeps giving out free money, bread and circus.

--
I can't tell if it's a good time to buy assets like another business. Lever up at low rates, inflation hedge against future at least.

Or be liquid and ready to buy same business at 50% discount in 2 years when the world is even more on fire.


And... the general public cheers loudly.
They are just eating it up - loving it all.

It's unreal to watch this unfold.

Only issue is that you need to hold that 'liquidity' in something other than currency... unless you purchase a currency that hasn't been heavily inflated by whichever country you see fit.
Alternatively I guess you could go into crypto, but you'll be exposed to high volatility which makes it unfit for the purpose you mentioned.
Generally speaking, inflation affects all assets nominated in the base currency. It's just a logical outcome: let it be stocks or whatever else (food, your bills, taxes....), suddenly you need more pieces of paper (or zeros and ones, whichever you want) to get the same amount of something.

So, we are kind of in a rough place. I guess one strategy would be to take the countries with lower M0, go long their currencies against USD or GBP and use that as a 'liquid' hedge?


Not saying this is a good strategy, didn't give it a lot of thought to be honest, and also I am a stranger on the internet, so by default I shouldn't be trusted.
It will also be the case that if one were to do something like this, one should be ready for a LOT of pain. Currencies are very hard to valuate and they will move in unexpected ways.

It's also worth noting that this whole thread could be summarised into our trust/expectation on the FED stepping in before this spirals out of control. The 10Y has moved considerably from the 0.25 lows, so there is a chance... in which case, all of the above will be rendered useless.


Ah yes, the awesome world of finance, where no matter whether you are right or wrong, you almost always end up broke (when using your own money, that is...)

Oh well.... YOLO...?

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

Most likely. Any new debt the government issued would be at the prevailing bond rates, which are are directly impacted by the Federal Funds rate. Raising the Fed Funds rate would lead to higher bond rates and more interest on the newly minted debt. Given how far out of control the debt has become, even a small increase in debt service on t-bills/bonds could easily have a ripple effect that leads to a currency crisis.

In fact, I believe this is the most likely scenario for a 5-10 year currency crisis in the US...

And what happens in this crisis?

I'm just imagining that for many on the extreme political left (and some on the right who really only care about big government), some form of state ownership and control would look appealing. And that’s not good for you and me...

Because what do they ultimately have to back up all this debt and bad currency?

The asset value of the country. Your property.

...we create the value, but we are also the collateral...

 

[loop101]

I believe we are witnessing a massive hyperinflationary event underway as prices continue to skyrocket in all asset classes. Of course, this doesn't happen in 1 day or 1 week, but over the course of a year or two.

Meanwhile, the Fed continues to say inflation is under control.



Which means absolutely nothing.

When government/politicians who make the laws are not subject to their laws, allowing themselves to go bankrupt would be seen as a means to an end to leverage the crisis for more power, and likely a new fiat debt scheme. Simply put, Kings and Queens will allow whatever they want to happen because in the end, they're the ones the hold the puppet strings. People who control the rigged game won't allow themselves to be the losers.

Kinda like arbitrarily releasing and ending all student loan debts simply because you find it prudent to do so.

They'd do the same for themselves.

I'm guessing the end game here is a massive crisis resulting into the emergence of a new fiat while bitcoin would undergo either a ban, or a massive government regulation to take it over - Americans and Canadians!! Introducing, the New Ameridollar! Exchange 1000 of your old dollars, for 1 new Ameridollar! Stores will no longer accept your old USD starting Jan 1, 2023! Convert your dollars now!

So, is there a safe place to store a bunch of cash?

 

[Envision]

Talking about inflation... Im in Idaho, probably the gnarliest housing market in the country.

I almost bought this POS warehouse for 3M last year, owner got called feet... Sold it 1 day on market this past week for 4M... 3m was absolutely batshit

The house I bought last March for 230 I could sell tomorrow for 530.

Houses go 50-100k over asking with 10+ offers within the first week here. Im not exaggerating.

Own assets.... businesses, crypto, real estate, stocks. Cash is literally 50% more worthless than it was a year ago

 

[Timmy C]

IMO, that's a big contributor (as well as low interest rates) but not the driving factor.

Labor and material costs are through the roof. I'm trying to build a custom home in Sedona (all while trying to buy RE out-of-state - what a shitshow) and the price to build have gone up nearly 400,000 since we started the project. My floor plan hasn't changed in those 10 months. So to your point, not only is the supply short in existing inventory, but supply is short all through the material supply chain, including the labor.



Yikes.

But the Federal Reserve disagrees with you!
As does all those articles on CNBC!

Why do you believe the data that's right in front of your eyes? Don't you know thinking for yourself is dangerous?

Just because a 2X4 from Home Depot now costs $6.94 when it cost $2.84 just a few years ago doesn't mean inflation is 244%. LOL, according to gangsters in Jackson Hole, it's only 1.5%.

Inflation a out of control.
In Australia:

Cars cost an extra $5000 on average. I bought mine for $6,000 a few years ago. I was looking to upgrade and that same car I bought for $6,000 now sells for $8000!

To get something decent im looking at $15,000 pfft just keeping the car.

Housing in my town went up from $340,000 for a unit to now $400,000+ merely a few months later.

Petrol is up 30c litre.
Some food is up more than 50%.

But DW everyone, there is no inflation!

 

[Marigold]

I want to buy land to grow food. That's where my head's at. I've been buying physical gold and silver for a short while as well as SHTF prepping supplies.

You can tell my outlook is pretty bleak.

And I know they've always been predicting this kind of thing but when the WEF says we're having a great reset, it's kind of a big deal, no? Clue's in the name...

 

[Lex DeVille]

Start a business that needs equipment to start, for example, a sit down lawnmower starts a landscape business. A scissors lift can start a tree trimming business, etc.

Not Dogecoin?

 

[Fox]

If you were degreeless, jobless, and almost broke, and tomorrow someone handed you $1M in cash, what would you do?

Say thanks, check it is real, and help them on their way.

 

[Kevin88660]

What are members current opinions on how the next recession will go down?

The thing that stands out to me is that after a global pandemic, there doesn't appear to be any noticeable economic difference at least from where I'm standing. There was a bit of panick and layoffs, but people found new jobs, and the stockmarket etc is now where it was before the pandemic hit. It's like we haven't felt was we should have felt. It just doesn't add up.

People had been saying for a while that the recession was due, 2020 or 2021, but we haven't really felt one.

The only conclusion I can come to is that it's been postponed (by a torrent of money printing and government spending), but that when it finally hits, all that "pent up recession" (that's been going since 2008 or even 2000) is going to be released and it's going to be absolutely brutal. The "big one".

So what are members opinions of how and when this will likely go down? Or possible triggers or "bells" to watch out for.

Also what defensive measures do you think would be best?

The problem I'm having around developing defenses is that when crashes happen, they tend to be (basically by definition) heavily deflationary. During 2008 for instance, gold dropped along with everything else, as people liquidate to cash simply because it's the unit of account (they need it to meet their payables). Gold subsequently had a bull run, but the fact was still that cash & bonds & USD were still the go-to assets when the crash hit. That's the default pattern.

This time I'm not sure how it will play out. Everyone knows that if it hits, them and other countries will hit the already smoking printing presses hard, and spend like crazy. They'll print 10x if needed. But that will just appear 10x as absurd: it would just be impossible for people to believe cash & bonds aren't doomed after that.

Currently I'm in a mix of cash (mostly) and gold as a result, but I'm not sure what else to diversify into. The only thing I've been able to think of so far is consumer staples and basic utilities, as they appear very solid (people don't go without food & electricity in 1st world country recessions). But the charts still indicate that when recessions hit these stocks still take a big hit along with everything else. This indicates the best course is: stay in cash until "blood on streets" and then exit it all.

My cash exit idea would then be into: gold & silver, staples & utilities etc, and country indexes with low history of recession postponing and good economic and government fundamentals.

My one concern with this is that I'm wrong about a pending crash and we're already in some kind of stagflation, where the loose money is going to somehow cloak the crashes because they won't appear in dollar terms during runaway inflation. If this is the case I should exit the cash now rather than wait.

The one indicator I have that the hold cash decision is correct it that it's what all the big guys are doing, Buffet, the big tech companies etc, who are all holding massive cash. This seems to indicate they're all waiting for a crash.

The way I divide my cash is to have some my personal business operation development and have some for investment chasing the most risky investment class.

If the asset inflationary pressure is to continue your small investment in the riskiest asset class and generate a lot of return.

I do keep a lot of cash. Nobody get broke due to inflation but when once in a ten year event hit like covid or global financial crisis 2008, its the margin call and the cutting loss that make people go broke.

I think market will have frequent sharp V shape downward correction and when things are okay they will resume going up. 2008 and 2020 march was just a bigger V.

We are oscillating between extreme leverage and greed (encouraged by the central planners) which as a result produces sharp and painful correction along the way. Make sure the first downward journey of a V shaped downturn doesn’t kill you and you will stand to enjoy the supercycle of asset inflation that is coming.

I checked with my fellow retail friends who were playings stocks and almost all without exception lost money in 2020 March crash despite the fact that we had a full recovery and prices going higher. A too large position exposed is always the problem.

Inflation erodes your wealth slowly but a sudden asset price and economics deflation can wipe you out in weeks. It is really about striking the balance between getting posed to benefit from the long term inflationary trend while being anti-fragile against short term deflationary forces that often strike hard without warning.

 

[Envision]

Yeah no, since most of them are not investors, the real reason real estate is going up is from a couple of factors that all spell disaster:
1. Cheap debt. Unsophisticated homebuyers see low interest rates and get in bidding wars for houses that aren't worth what they are paying for them.
2. Stimulus checks, PPP loans, big spending, and other forms of inflation: all of that money finds a home somewhere, and when it's done trading hands, it finds the home in assets (real estate, stocks, bonds, commodities, etc)

Both are bad for the economy. At least, for average people who will probably all get burned hard - and for businesspeople later, when we get blamed for it all even though it was mostly government policy.

I agree sure, these are factors but you also need to look at how ruined the global supply chain is and that the costs of goods to make a house have skyrocketed. We actually have a massive housing shortage here in the US, there is not an abundance of people buying 6 houses like there was 12 years ago... What's happening is a mixture of low interest rates, no underlying product, and a massive increase in cost to produce which bottlenecks an industry and skyrockets cost.

Real estate, Id say is one decent place to put your money. The only factor I see genuinely being terminal to interest rates is if the cap gains/1031/tax laws are actually passed.. Which I dont think they will simply because most of these politicians own real estate investments. Or if interest rates start to go up, but that would tank the economy and the fed/govt is too scared to do that for the time being.

Taking on debt and owning real estate is honestly one of the best hedges against this crazy inflation we're seeing.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Is today the start of something? Or just a minor correction?

 

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[GIlman]

Investments must beat inflation by a significant amount, otherwise taxes will leave you with a negative real yield. Gold for instance has very bad tax treatment.

Like everything it depends. There are ways to deal with anything. If you hold gold in a vault you can always take a low interest loan against with the gold as collateral instead of cashing it in. This allows you to avoid the capital gains since loans are not taxed, maintain ownership with a lien on your gold, and get cash to deploy in other areas. If gold continues to rise you have the benefit of your gold appreciating and the value of the cash investment you made from the loan.

If you don't want to deal with physical gold, there are leveraged plays you can do that will appreciate in multiples to the gold price. You can do an index of gold miners, junior or senior miners. Or even better a gold royalty and streaming company can offer massive returns if gold spikes. Royalty companies buy a small stake right to gold mines and land with high potential for gold discovery. They pay a small price for the perpetual right to receive a percentage of revenue (royalty) or a percentage of actual metal mined (stream). They typically diversify across many geographic areas with both developed mines and potential future mines.

The biggest royalty streaming company is Frano-Nevada (FNV). There are others including a newcomer Mettalla (MTA) that looks interesting.

In the case of both, imagine that the cost to mine 1 oz of gold was $1500 and the selling price was $1700. Then profits per ounce of gold are $200. Now imagine if gold jumped to $2700, assuming production cost was still $1500 then profits per ounce of gold would be $1200, 6X the profits. Of course production costs can go up but you can see how a big run on gold can cause a huge spike.

Also realize that at the moment, there are massive massive paper gold contracts and trading going on, but there is not the physical gold to back up these transactions. So there is a significant potential for a run if people actually want delivery instead of trading futures and paper gold. Lastly, look up Basal III, which are new banking regulations about to hit that change how banks accounting for gold will have to be.

 

[biophase]

3 bd 2 bath is very basic in my area. Anything smaller should be considered an apartment. Yes I am aware that the RE listing still classify it as a condo, but that's not really the reality.

And please, someone with that kind of income in a past time would be able to buy much nicer things. Now I do realize I live in costal Cali which isn't ideal when talking about RE prices, but still, I can't fathom how people live when earns less than me. But perhaps that's why lots of people are moving out of here.

Lol. Basic condo? 3br 2ba. Guess what, in a past time that was considered a normal sized home.

Id look up your salary adjusted vs inflation and compare it to the year 2000 and then compare the year 2000 home prices. I think you’d find it’s close to the same.

People don’t deserve to live wherever they want. I want to live at the beach, but a top 1% income can’t even afford that now. Does that mean I should be able to?

And let’s not forget that your post said any city outside of NY and SF. Now you are talking about a place close to the ocean with decent weather all year around.

 

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[socaldude]

It happens like once every 10 years. And even then it V recovers in no time.

For something like March to repeat you will need something very material and very negative. But you can count on a correction as that’s just part of the cycle.

As of now I think the market has to be right about inflation. It might be pricing in too little or too much. Wages and housing will be the big tell.

 

[Timmy C]

This is why asset prices will continue going much higher.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1375487797432180737

View: https://twitter.com/WallStPlayboys/status/1375487797432180737

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

Of course, they'd be bankrupting themselves as well...

But would they?

What might they do after this in this crazy scenario? There are things they could do... and all of them would be quite bad for you and I, as owners of assets.

Seizures, nationalizations, government-owned land and leases instead of private property..

totally crazy speculation of course. Hopefully it’s a ridiculous thought or concern.

I think most people would fight tooth and nail against that (myself included), so hopefully won’t ever happen!

 

[biggeemac]

I'm guessing the end game here is a massive crisis resulting into the emergence of a new fiat while bitcoin would undergo either a ban, or a massive government regulation to take it over - Americans and Canadians!! Introducing, the New Ameridollar! Exchange 1000 of your old dollars, for 1 new Ameridollar! Stores will no longer accept your old USD starting Jan 1, 2023! Convert your dollars now!

I wonder what would happen to debts and mortgages in this scenario?

 

[Ing]

Thats with assets. They decrease. But debts styay. They find a way that your debts stay!
So invest your money in debts, they will survive! )