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How does Britain possibly leaving the EU effect the world?

Is the Brexit a good idea?

  • Yes

    Votes: 53 53.5%
  • No

    Votes: 46 46.5%

  • Total voters
    99
  • Poll closed .

mtn_baldy

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My guess is that the euro will fall, raising the USD and in turn, lowering the power of all other currencys.

I'm all for nationalism, so I think this is a great idea, but I'm curious what you guys think.

Y'all are F*cking smarter than me anyways.
 
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blackbrich

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I can't see how it would really help. Economically at least.

It seems like it would be a lot of work for Britain for possibly very little payout. If they leave the EU, I would think they would have to do new deals with a bunch of other countries for trade that they've been relying on the EU for.
Also without the free trade between Britain and the other EU countries, couldn't the EU start imposing tariffs against Britain.

Britain has also been using the pound forever and I couldn't think of a reason why the demand for the euro would drop just because Britain left, but I'm also not familiar with how trade with Britain worked considering the euro and the pound both being in existence. Not sure how much of their National banks reserve was held in euros, doubt they would dump it all of a sudden either.

But I can see it helping to secure their borders. I get the sense that that's an issue for a segment of the population there.

I'm no expert, with only a shallow knowledge of the workings of banks and economies, but these are just things I've thought of after reading.
 

Digamma

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Cue for the whole world to notice how the catastrophic consequences they fearmongered are horseshit.
Nothing changes, people - the sun is still going to come up even as Britain leaves the Bruxelles Overlords.

However, I get paid in USD and convert that in EUR, so if the EUR goes down a little for a while I might make a little more cash. Cool.

EDIT: Of course, I will now need a passport to go hang out in London. But that's OK. I finally have an incentive to get a passport at all.
 
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GMJimmy

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Curious for the consequences. I'm in the UK as a EU citizen.

I think many jobs are at risk. Companies would definitely leave, as would my employer too. Also, many investments are on hold because of the uncertainty. In the pharmaceutical industries, some functions must be within the EU, those would simply relocate. Probably the same for the European Medicines Agency which is currently in London.

Can't wait to see the forex to open, I took a big gamble and have about 15k in GBP, expecting that the vote would be in and exchange rates would be up. 1 more hour to go.

I think this is overall bad for Britain. Immigrants are not causing that much problem. Most of them take low-end jobs what British are not willing to. Most of the britons who are living a low life are just happy with their benefits, and if they wanted to work, there are still jobs available. Minimum wage is minimum wage, no one is working for less (legally).

The EU did very good to the UK economy. When they joined they were almost the poorest country, now they are one of the most powerful. But maybe just a coincidence.

I'll see what happens to the economy amd maybe I'll leave too with my family. I'm not happy with the taxing system and education anyway.
 

Sanj Modha

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It's a massive impact. GBP is third biggest currency in the world and it's crashing. We can't just negotiate trade deals like that. They take years/decades and all our big ones were negotiated via the EU.

The Remain camp lost to emotions and sovereignty vs facts and economics. There is a price to pay. A big one.

FTSE is tumbling. That affects pensions and living standards. I predict an EU recession.
 

Dave510

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David Cameron is an idiot. Even if he didn't count on winning an absolute majority, he shouldn't have made such a big promise lightly.

UK will probably go into recession, Scotland might want another referendum, EU's economy will likely suffer.

I wonder what history will say about this clown.
 
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Sanj Modha

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Warren Buffet says recessions are the greatest transfers of wealth in human history. He's studied all recorded ones.

There will be opportunities. There always is. Interest Rates will be low for years.

UK is running a big trade deficit so there will be opportunities for exporters.
 
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AgainstAllOdds

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Sorry for being a dick. But it's logic like this:

When they joined they were almost the poorest country, now they are one of the most powerful. But maybe just a coincidence.

That leads to "investments" like this:

Can't wait to see the forex to open, I took a big gamble and have about 15k in GBP, expecting that the vote would be in and exchange rates would be up.
 
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GMJimmy

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Sorry for being a dick. But it's logic like this:



That leads to "investments" like this:
There's no correlation with British economic history and my current choices.

My logic and speculation were:
Uncertainty caused weak GBP -> UK votes to remain in EU -> Uncertainty ends -> GBP gets strong again

It's not a disaster for me, I lose about 5% if I were to exchange it to any other strong currencies. Or I can say I did not win. But I can spend this GBP in the UK as well, so really there is no great impact. Just a missed opportunity for me.
 

RHL

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Somebody is going to make straight-up billions of dollars in the next few months. Months, not decades.

People with FX options on BPS who foresaw this.

People buying up shitloads of temporally deflated high-value British stock.

There is "blood in the streets."

As Buffet said, "recessions lead to the greatest transfers of wealth in human history."

At the same time, a whole lot of fools are going to rush in and lose the shirt off their backs.
 

Sanj Modha

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Cameron thought the majority would vote to stay in. They didn't and now he falls on his sword.

It's a rocky period in British history. The ruling Conservatives are split down the middle. The main opposition party's leader smokes crack by the looks of it and Lib Dems is now one guy sat in his cabin.

There's a void and I don't trust anyone to fill it.
 
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Tomekmeister

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"Asking an eurosceptic if he's for Brexit, it's like asking a prisoner if his cell buddy should be set free. For the buddy it's good, because he's no longer a prisoner, but the second one is in prison by himself." ~Konrad Berkowicz (politician from Poland)

Though it has negative direct impact on people that want to quit / destroy EU, it could be a good example that grants from EU don't make your country rich and you can live without them (80% of polish citizens think they do, not even kidding).
 
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illmasterj

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Missed the boat to buy this morning. Here's hoping markets are irrational in the US!
 
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OldFaithful

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It's challenging to predict the outcome of changes like this. People are irrational and governing bodies are made up of people. Short term consequences often gain headlines while long term effects are almost never noticed.

Living in the US, I must admit that I don't have any first hand experience with life in Britian. I can understand the desire to exit the EU, but I can also see the benefits of being a member of the broader community. Only time (and careful, reasoned analysis) will tell.
 
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GMJimmy

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grants from EU don't make your country rich and you can live without them. (80% of polish citizens think they do, not even kidding).

Majority of Hungarian citizens think the same. They, however, tend to forget that the EU donations are almost equal to the GDP growth in any given year.

But UK is still a great place, it's a pity that I'm leaving for this weekend, it would be nice to go to a pub and talk to different people about their opinion and feelings around brexit.
 

The Duc

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Even assuming it has a negative economic impact on the UK in the medium term, that's a small price to pay to regain your national sovereignty and give a huge middle finger to a bunch of bureaucrats in Brussels.

And that's a big assumption and a bet I wouldn't take.

It amazes me how fast things go from "the sun never sets on the British Empire" to "we can't survive without a political union with Romania and Greece."
 

Ninjakid

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I'm all for nationalism, so I think this is a great idea

Nationalism also caused two world wars. Read about history and you might change your mind.

People are irrational
The fact that people actually listen to goofs like Boris Johnson confirm this.

Living in the US, I must admit that I don't have any first hand experience with life in Britian. I can understand the desire to exit the EU, but I can also see the benefits of being a member of the broader community. Only time (and careful, reasoned analysis) will tell.

I think the EU yielded a lot of broken promises. The European nations were supposed to be powerful economically and influentially together, and they could achieve far more than they could alone. But what's actually happened is they have an economy in shambles, a refugee crisis, and people are frustrated, which is totally understandable.

I personally thought they European countries had far more to gain by sticking together rather than separating, but who knows? Maybe the EU is a sinking ship and the UK is the only country smart enough to jump off.
 
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GMJimmy

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I personally thought they European countries had far more to gain by sticking together rather than separating, but who knows? Maybe the EU is a sinking ship and the UK is the only country smart enough to jump off.

I have this feeling too. If EU remains together, than that may be bad for UK. But if other countries leave too, and the EU collapses, than this does not matter.

At the moment I dont think they jumped off because they see it as a sinking ship. They just want to be out and independent.
 

Andy Black

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As with anything, there'll be winners and there'll be losers.

The winners will be those that can adapt to change, the losers will be those that can't.


(It's a valid question, but for me, I'll just shrug and get back to work...)
 

TwoSteps

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Being in the UK, I've had all the news and information and leaflet drops through my door. Propaganda and lies have stirred up resentment and the old favourite - fear.

Fear that Turkey was in line to join the EU - they've completed 1 of 35 requirements and don't appear to be trying very hard
Fear that we can't control immigration in the EU - if we want to trade we have to allow free movement of labour and illegals will still find a way in
Lies that we send £350M per week to the EU - the net figure is around £180M and we get back much more
Lies that we don't have any control - we've only lost about 2-3% of votes. We are/were 1 of the Big 4 with more votes than other members

The list goes on. It's disgraceful.

The media has exploited our emotions.

As aforesaid, we're probably heading into a recession, more QE, job losses and less opportunity for the next generation.

75% of 18 - 24 year-olds wanted us to stay in. (the other 25% were still in bed).

I feel a bit cheated. It was a very close vote. 48.1% / 51.9%

The EU isn't perfect but it still felt like progress.

2 years to work out a new deal. 2 years to GTFOOD.
 
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Aimee

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As with anything, there'll be winners and there'll be losers.

The winners will be those that can adapt to change, the losers will be those that can't.


(It's a valid question, but for me, I'll just shrug and get back to work...)

This is a good way to look at it. Needed to hear (read) this right now!
 

mtn_baldy

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I definitely buy into the who idea of being an independent nation like the US.
By being its own independent nation, they aren't forced to abide by any silly rules the EU decides to put upon them.

Its like MJ says in the TMF, if someone is your boss, they can F*ck you over at any time.

Nationalists :1
Globalists : 0
 

jazb

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I have this feeling too. If EU remains together, than that may be bad for UK. But if other countries leave too, and the EU collapses, than this does not matter.

At the moment I dont think they jumped off because they see it as a sinking ship. They just want to be out and independent.


Yeah, that's my belief as well. I think the EU will collapse. The Danes and the Greeks will go next. followed by the French and maybe the Austrians. Brexit has set off a domino effect.

The UK is going to take a hit over the next few years. some businesses in the financial sector may relocate. construction will absolutely decline (mass imigration will be controlled again). Trade agreements are anyone's bet. they could work massively in UK's favor if we do a good job or maybe not.

I don't however believe there's going to be a recession the way people and the media are playing out. short term pain yes, long term we will be fine.
 
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happybhoy

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Here's some figures of the servive based trade deals some countries have negotiated (UK is a service based economy); figure is total GDP of trade partners.

Switzerland-39.8t
Singapore-38.7t
S.Korea-40.8t
Chile-58.3t

How much did the EU get for the UK?
7.7t!!

We've just cut the largest piece of red tape in the history of capitalism.
 

Digamma

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We've just cut the largest piece of red tape in the history of capitalism.
But, but, muh freedom of traveh!

It's been hilarious to witness the arrogance of people who consider whoever thinks differently from them "ignorant", while ignoring everything but the meaningless details that punch them in the face every day.


I am a big fan of the idea of a EU. The execution, however, sucks. This is a simple fact.
Being ruled by bureaucrats no one elected is not what the EU should be about.

You can have an economic union without selling your nation's sovereignty to unknown powers.
 

Longinus

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... an independent nation like the US...

EU had to evolve to USE in the long term, get it? It's just like you have people in the US being proud of their state, it can work. In Europe there are just more differences (cultural, social, economical, laws...) which makes it more difficult.

Living in a country with 5 different governments (all paid with tax money, EU government not included), I can understand the frustration of the people. However, the benefits of the EU are heavily ignored these days. Not just EU might fall apart starting from today, but UK as well.
 
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GSF

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But, but, muh freedom of traveh!

It's been hilarious to witness the arrogance of people who consider whoever thinks differently from them "ignorant", while ignoring everything but the meaningless details that punch them in the face every day.


I am a big fan of the idea of a EU. The execution, however, sucks. This is a simple fact.
Being ruled by bureaucrats no one elected is not what the EU should be about.

You can have an economic union without selling your nation's sovereignty to unknown powers.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

I voted and was pleasantly surprised this morning. Despite the negative short term thinking of many, In the long term I'm sure we will be better off.
 

Jambla

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I was shocked when I heard the result.

Its massive for the UK, we were actually doing very well and now we have left the EU. Its a big gamble, no country has left the EU before except Greenland who left 30 years ago and has a tiny population. We have no blueprint to follow as we are in uncharted waters. Negotiations with the EU will be tough because they will want to make an example. There's no going back now!
 

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