Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[GPM]

Do any of you guys keep track of the BTC to ETH ratio? Back at the previous peaks Ethereum in relation increased by a lot more, even touching 10:1. Right now it is sitting somewhere around 30:1 and has been for quite a while.

It looks like you see a lot of the mainstream discussing Bitcoin as a store of value, and Ethereum as more utility. However, that could be that Ethereum flies under the radar until the end much as it did back in 2017.

Anyone smarter care to chime in with this? I figured we would have another run like this, but I did not think it would be so soon. Ideally I would love to cash out when hairdressers and plumber are buying in, and then converting that same cash back into BTC and ETH when everyone is losing their shirts and crying.

Some really really really rough numbers on ETH from that 2017/2018 time period. It started at $10, rose to $1000, and crashed down to $100. Nice easy numbers there. Can we expect something similar? Rising from $100, to perhaps close to $10,000, and crashing down to $100? Could you imagine trading those if you were only interested in increasing your crypto holdings and not even looking at your Fiat equivalent?

For anyone interested in staking their own Ethereum come 2.0, it takes 32 to become a validator. Trying to trade up your holdings when it crashes down, and then throwing that in as a validator to earn some passive ETH and not even looking at it would be a pretty cool way to go.

 

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[James Fake]

You're a ballsy man shorting. I sincerely wish you the best of luck!

I actually just closed it @$39,940 lol. My stupid short signal keeps moving... It looks like I will be re-positioning the short around 4-10pm PST; whenever there is a ton of volume and price jumping at the top of a candle is likely where I'll enter one.

Update: UGH.. I swear the market makers read this thread. 10mins after I close my $40,000 price short; it dumps after I waited the entire day and last night for this movement. Anywho; Im re-entered but not the very top $40,000 on the dot price I wanted

 

[Timmy C]

Yes things are getting crazy right now. I have no doubt that it will eventually pull back hard, and then eventually go to higher highs down the road from there.

Smart money has me selling some soon, and getting back in when it pulls back. But like all of you, when?

Here is one metric I like to keep an eye on. The trend is the same if you go worldwide.

I've been keeping a close eye on this.

I will be selling portions of some stacks off within the next couple of months.

Sticking to my plan, and I won't be selling any BTC at all, for many years

 

[Kevin88660]

I have not seen people talking about how smart they are mortgaging their houses to buy bitcoin, so yea, I would say we are just getting started.

Do you guys remember the chatter in 2017? I don't have twitter or any social media, but I saw enough of it to see that everyone was trying to get in on it. I imagine this will be the same.

i think retail will miss this.

Every trader’s dream is somehow “retail” will buy their coins at 10x.

I think most retail money got burnt in 2017 and is unlikely to come back. It is all institutions and sophisticated retail playing against one another.

I think the last one holding the bags will be institutions who suck into the block chain narrative. Remember Yahoo who made many acquisition at the peak and made Mark Cuban a billionaire.

 

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[GPM]

I see your point, but I think you have too much faith in the average idiot. For every Enron there is lines of buyers

 

[James Fake]

Still holding onto my short; I think there is some more downside after this bounce we are in. I'm eye'ing a bounce at ~$34,600 and then eye'ing a possible mid-term bottom at ~$31,500 here within the next few days. It should climb to a new all time high around ~$41,000 somewhere. Then it just depends on how the price action, volume, buying exhaustion, hidden big sells, etc. on where a possible mid-term top would be. I suspect a Huge correction once we hit that ~$41,000ish range area; one that will take 4-6 weeks before we eventually reach a bottom around $23,000 to $25,000. And then... MOON time again.

 

[Timmy C]

Still holding onto my short; I think there is some more downside after this bounce we are in. I'm eye'ing a bounce at ~$34,600 and then eye'ing a possible mid-term bottom at ~$31,500 here within the next few days. It should climb to a new all time high around ~$41,000 somewhere. Then it just depends on how the price action, volume, buying exhaustion, hidden big sells, etc. on where a possible mid-term top would be. I suspect a Huge correction once we hit that ~$41,000ish range area; one that will take 4-6 weeks before we eventually reach a bottom around $23,000 to $25,000. And then... MOON time again.

That's the thing with BTC, you think there is no way it goes higher, and then it rips faces off with higher highs.

 

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[Timmy C]

I'm holding.

Even if the market drops 65%, I am still up.

 

[Timmy C]

I found this interesting.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1347013567799848961

View: https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1347013567799848961

 

[Musashi]

I’m really enjoying reading this thread.

And I have a question:

What about Tether?

The largest chunk of money coming into bitcoin (and a lot of other cryptos) is USDT.

There rumors since years that Tether is not backed 1:1 to the USD.

What if the SEC goes for Tether next and they indeed find out all that money don’t exist. Wirecard 2.0.

That could disrupt the whole crypto market massively.

More on Tether:

Tether is ‘too big to fail’ — the entire cryptocurrency industry utterly depends on it

We just topped twenty billion alleged dollars’ worth of tethers! If you think this is sustainable, you’re a fool.

davidgerard.co.uk

 

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[Timmy C]

I’m really enjoying reading this thread.

And I have a question:

What about Tether?

The largest chunk of money coming into bitcoin (and a lot of other cryptos) is USDT.

There rumors since years that Tether is not backed 1:1 to the USD.

What if the SEC goes for Tether next and they indeed find out all that money don’t exist. Wirecard 2.0.

That could disrupt the whole crypto market massively.

More on Tether:

Tether is ‘too big to fail’ — the entire cryptocurrency industry utterly depends on it

We just topped twenty billion alleged dollars’ worth of tethers! If you think this is sustainable, you’re a fool.

davidgerard.co.uk

It has no bearing on anything. I'll get to this at some other time.

Out having a beer atm.

 

[csalvato]

There rumors since years that Tether is not backed 1:1 to the USD.

These aren’t rumors, it says so right on tethers marketing site.

https://tether.to/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/FSS1JUN18-Account-Snapshot-Statement-final-15JUN18.pdf

There’s 2.5B in reserves with a market cap of 23B.

Tether can be minted at will, and often is minted to purchase BTC or facilitate massive BTC sales.

These are far from rumors.

Tether is a big risk in crypto, and largely believed to be a major contributor to the massive run up in 2017, and ultimate crash.

 

[Toshiro]

anyone knows anything about the new pixelbit?
I looked a little in to it and it looks somehow shady to me, ingame currency for games. On the other side it could actually work

 

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[gryfny]

Do any of you guys keep track of the BTC to ETH ratio? Back at the previous peaks Ethereum in relation increased by a lot more, even touching 10:1. Right now it is sitting somewhere around 30:1 and has been for quite a while.

It looks like you see a lot of the mainstream discussing Bitcoin as a store of value, and Ethereum as more utility. However, that could be that Ethereum flies under the radar until the end much as it did back in 2017.

Anyone smarter care to chime in with this? I figured we would have another run like this, but I did not think it would be so soon. Ideally I would love to cash out when hairdressers and plumber are buying in, and then converting that same cash back into BTC and ETH when everyone is losing their shirts and crying.

Some really really really rough numbers on ETH from that 2017/2018 time period. It started at $10, rose to $1000, and crashed down to $100. Nice easy numbers there. Can we expect something similar? Rising from $100, to perhaps close to $10,000, and crashing down to $100? Could you imagine trading those if you were only interested in increasing your crypto holdings and not even looking at your Fiat equivalent?

For anyone interested in staking their own Ethereum come 2.0, it takes 32 to become a validator. Trying to trade up your holdings when it crashes down, and then throwing that in as a validator to earn some passive ETH and not even looking at it would be a pretty cool way to go.

I'm looking to exchange some ETH for BTC to balance my portfolio, so I am looking at this a bit lately.

I think the reason ETH was priced high back in those days is because many alt coins were based on the ethereum blockchain. If this time mostly institutional investors are buying, I'm guessing they wont be buying a ton of shitcoins/altcoins. So I don't expect ETH to outperform BTC like a few years back.

But then again, what do I know? I might just be a bit worried because I have too much ETH compared to BTC.

 

[Frinys]

anyone knows anything about the new pixelbit?
I looked a little in to it and it looks somehow shady to me, ingame currency for games. On the other side it could actually work

I have not looked into PixelBit but I did look at similar "solutions" when I first noticed them back in 2017.

The thing is, they add nothing new to the table. Why would anyone want to use PixelBit (or similar) instead of Ethereum, Nano, <Insert large market cap high transaction blockchain solution>, etc? I can't see any reasons why.

My conclusion is that such ingame cryptocurrency solutions are created by game companies to (1) raise an ICO and (2) take profit when users convert the currency to fiat and vice versa.

This is a huge red flag. I don't know about PixelBit, but most of these ingame cryptocurrencies are just a semi-scam. Be careful.

 

[shubham525]

Made some sweet small profit!
Some part was left in wallet when last boom came.

 

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[Martin.G]

Does someone have any information about DAI? Stable coins are important in Latin America because we use it to send and receive money. Tether is another option, but it's not much used in Argentina at least.

I wouldn't buy this crypto to store value, but for a transaction that can last a couple hour the risk is minimal.

 

[Timmy C]

You guys are nuts who are trying to short this.

New ATH.

 

[maverick]

I found this interesting.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1347013567799848961

View: https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1347013567799848961

Very interesting indeed.

 

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[Timmy C]

This market proves again at why trading is a fools game.

Buy, DCA, and wait.

 

[maverick]

This market proves again at why trading is a fools game.

Buy, DCA, and wait.

Buy, DCA, stake and wait ;-)

 

[sfarieri]

Hey Fastlaners,
As Bitcoin is slowly becoming the real deal. I wanted to give Bitcoin it's own thread containing just long-term & short-term predictions & any big crypto news to help any others who's trading, hodling, etc. a place to throw in your predictions & any actions you plan on taking.

I see the current stage of Bitcoin & crypto as the new Napster & Limewire. Industry bigs (middle-men) will do all they can to fight it & shut it down, but they will soon find out - You can't beat the under-lying ideals & world-changing tech. It will carry on & win out in other forms because the market has experienced the benefits and the market always wins (it will even beat out government regulations).

Bitcoin is in the experienced the benefits stage. As more and more adopt to use Bitcoin as a form of payment (even if the sellers offering to take Btc as payment are valuing on speculative price/trading); the fact remains: They are still using Bitcoin as currency. It is being used as the real deal of exchange between goods & money.

Predictions Nov 8, 2017:
A fork titled B2X was recently cancelled (or "suspended") by their own backers & creators. This is going to give Btc a big bull-run for the next week or so to ~$9,000.

Once it hits this; if the bull-run slows down; a market correction drop of ~20-30% will hit around early or mid December. This will be a short-lived correction though as many are waiting on the sideline (who haven't jumped in the game) for this drop to happen and ready to buy into Bitcoin.

With or without this market correction happening; I strongly believe Btc will at least flirt with $10k before the year is over with.

My actions: I am going to Hodl until I see about a ~15% drop then going to sell half of my coins to later re-buy in once it begins climbing back from the drop. Then Hodl, Hodl, Hodl.

I don't know or truly understand cryptocurrency, but I do take a peek to see how it's doing. I have noticed that Ethereum is going off the charts, XRP is about to be delisted, been hearing some good things about DOGECOIN (bought a very few amount of it recently).

Seems that more and more people are getting involved so it's something I'm going to try to learn more about since it appears like an opportunity to make some good money.

 

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[maverick]

I don't know or truly understand cryptocurrency, but I do take a peek to see how it's doing. I have noticed that Ethereum is going off the charts, XRP is about to be delisted, been hearing some good things about DOGECOIN (bought a very few amount of it recently).

Seems that more and more people are getting involved so it's something I'm going to try to learn more about since it appears like an opportunity to make some good money.

DOGECOIN is a big pile of manure. Stick to BTC and ETH if you have a limited understanding of crypto.

 

[maverick]

@Timmy C do you dabble in SUSHI or 1Inch?

 

[csalvato]

I don't know or truly understand cryptocurrency, but I do take a peek to see how it's doing. I have noticed that Ethereum is going off the charts, XRP is about to be delisted, been hearing some good things about DOGECOIN (bought a very few amount of it recently).

Seems that more and more people are getting involved so it's something I'm going to try to learn more about since it appears like an opportunity to make some good money.

Stop being dumb money and educate yourself. @MTF had a post about how he did this recently and leveled up his knowledge in a day

 

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[Kevin88660]

This is really hard to gauge. Predictions are all over the grid and i think the ultimate reality will surprise everyone; bulls, bears and the level headed alike.

I honestly have no idea what the next few months hold and won't pretend to. All technicals and previous patterns are almost entirely out the window imo.

Prediction is hard for sure. But whenever there is a parabolic rise that signals the end of the bull market is coming soon.

It doesn’t mean that btc cannot go up a lot higher, most crazy moves are in the last phase. I think 50 percent of the btc’s rise were in less than 3 weeks in 2017 (10-20k) if I am not wrong.

From a timing perspective, the end seems to be near. I cannot remember an exception in the history of financial market. A collapse always happen quickly after a parabolic rise.

 

[csalvato]

Prediction is hard for sure. But whenever there is a parabolic rise that signals the end of the bull market is coming soon.

It doesn’t mean that btc cannot go up a lot higher, most crazy moves are in the last phase. I think 50 percent of the btc’s rise were in less than 3 weeks in 2017 (10-20k) if I am not wrong.

From a timing perspective, the end seems to be near. I cannot remember an exception in the history of financial market. A collapse always happen quickly after a parabolic rise.

Previous BTC parabolic bull markets are the history that's most relevant, and those are typically 10x+.

We are at 4x right now from Oct.

 

[Sethamus]

Previous BTC parabolic bull markets are the history that's most relevant, and those are typically 10x+.

We are at 4x right now from Oct.

Would you not expect the multiple of the parabolic to gradually decline as the adoption rate increases and crypto becomes more mainstream? Cannot be 10x forever can it...just asking do not know the answer.

 

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[csalvato]

Would you not expect the multiple of the parabolic the gradually decline as the adoption rate increases and crypto becomes more mainstream? Cannot be 10x forever can it...just asking do not know the answer.

No idea. There's an argument for it to be smaller, and one for it to be far greater.

The argument for it to be greater:

Generally, innovation adoption goes along an S curve, with a massive parabolic rise as you cross the chasm from ~10% market penetration into 20-25% penetration. Once you cross that 20% threshold, you're well into the mainstream (technically the low end of mainstream threshold is ~13% IIRC), and it quickly spreads to 80% market penetration.

Look at the market penetration of the radio, phone, internet, etc. for examples. Each of those innovations were adopted more quickly than the last, so I think for BTC it can be very fast and very large.

Bitcoin may be crossing over 13% market penetration now.

 

[c4n]

Today, my mother (60+ years) asked me about BTC. And then she mentioned ETH is also doing well.

I was like WTF?! That's it, I'm out, time to sell