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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

Fukuokasan

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Okay, well this theory first came about from when they opened up the CME long/short mechanism. At the time I predicted it would be bad for Bitcoin, because ultimately there was a lot of negative press coming from the bankers. Even Goldman Sucks which went from completely deriding it, to opening up a small fund for their clients.

So I predicted that when they entered the market they would find a way to screw everyone over, because they ultimately see crypto as a threat, and they control the money and they don't want to lose that control.

My theory is that the banks are buying shed loads of btc and then shorting it (if this is illegal, they are finding ways round that illegality), then when the right time comes they dump their coin crashing the price and thus cashing in on their short.

This is not as risky a strategy as it sounds because of the nature of the btc market.

What is the overall theory of btc holders?

HODL!

Unlike other financial markets crypto heads talk about holding their assets regardless of what happens in the market.

Also unlike other markets it is very difficult to sell large amounts of btc without moving the price. For example if I wanted to sell a million dollars worth of Chrysler shares nobody but me and my broker would notice. However if I tried to sell a million dollars worth of btc all at once I could single handedly cause a price fluctuation just by dumping it on Kraken or one of the smaller exchanges.

So even though the market cap of btc is pretty large, the active players in the market are small, I believe Kraken and Coinbase are the largest exchanges and their 24 hour volumes can be measured in the thousands.

So yeah, the banks are freaked out about btc and at first they tried to ridicule it, then they joined the party and now they're ruining it.

With all that being said, there's still plenty of room for day/week traders to make some money, however for long term investment I think it sucks.

The money will be in the BaaS (blockchain as a service) coins, in particular I'm keeping tabs on EOS as they seem to have a good handle on blockchain speeds and implementing games onto the chain.

Steem (which I'm invested in) could also be good, its flagship dapp Steemit is kind of dying now, however they have the two top blockchain games in Steem Monsters and Drugwars.

Dan Larimer (creator of Steem and EOS) announced the other day that he was going to create Steemit 2.0 on the EOS chain. I have a feeling that it will be bigger, better and shinier than his first attempt and there will be more social features to boot.

At the moment I use btc as a temporary place holder as I buy and sell other cryptos...

I hope I'm wrong about bitcoin, and if it goes past the $9000 mark and stabilises somewhere around the $10k mark then I'll admit my theory is wrong. If however I see it continually bounce between about $3k and $8k I'll believe I'm right.

DISCLAIMER: Even though it sounds like it above, I am not a conspiracy theorist, I don't believe in the Deep State, alien pyramids, or that 9/11 was an inside job. :p:clench:
So, you are wrong and 9/11 was a false flag...
 
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paulmp

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Ouch.

So the keys and recovery phrase was stored on that as well?

Because of course, (as I'm sure you're aware) the bitcoin aren't actually on the drive, they still reside on the blockchain and can be accessed with the right info... I'm sure you've tried everything. I feel for you man.

Damn, lighting! What are the odds? :-(

Yep, had everything on there... I've recovered most of it... of course the most valuable part (monetarily) is completely corrupted. I've tried everything. It is gone. I'm ok with it most of the time. Although I could really do with just 2-3 bitcoin at the moment.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Costumers are fools, they stole it by hacking username and password. Always have a physical key as 2FA, not other and NEVER leave your Bitcoins in an exchange. Hodl in cold storage...

Instead of making 10 posts 10 times in a row, in the future can you aggregate all your comments in ONE post, not all in a row? It is not necessary to post one comment one after another. Everything you stated could be said in one post. Thank you!
 

Roli

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Instead of making 10 posts 10 times in a row, in the future can you aggregate all your comments in ONE post, not all in a row? It is not necessary to post one comment one after another. Everything you stated could be said in one post. Thank you!

I think this is because he doesn't realise he can highlight and then hit quote and then reply to all the people he wants to. It literally took me about 2 years before I realised you could do that!

Talking of the highlight function, why has it gone from blue to an almost imperceptible yellow? At first I thought it was a Chrome thing, but TMFF is the only site it happens on, and it happened just after the last changes.

Bring back blue, it's much easier to see. :cool:
 

LittleWolfie

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Perhaps at this point you could send it to a data recovery facility. The physical process of opening the drive and scavenging data off the drive's discs is quite expensive (about $1000), but it's far less than what you earn back!

Hell,I've seen some on bitcoin talk forums that will do it for comission paid in btc recovered.

Though I have to wonder what kind of pro sysadmin never has a paper/ offline lto/optidisc back up of keys.
 
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Jeff Noel

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Hell,I've seen some on bitcoin talk forums that will do it for comission paid in btc recovered.

Though I have to wonder what kind of pro sysadmin never has a paper/ offline lto/optidisc back up of keys.
The problem with non business services is that the random individual on the forums could also use the rest of the data found on his hard drive (as he mentioned, many pictures with contracts linked to them).
Most data recovery companies offer NDAs or some data privacy agreements. Although humans remain humans, I believe people doing that everyday, with a reputation in doing just that, are a safer bet.

I digress from the main topic though.
 

eliquid

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Ah man... very sorry to hear that. Insane. Crazy how these stories are a lot more common than one would realize which only questions what is the 'real' supply of Bitcoin?

I would sell it 'as is' and tell them you tried everything.. I'm sure someone will think they're smarter than you and pay a nice sum to give it a go lol.

Hmmm, every USB drive I sell in the future I am going to smash with a hammer and put it up on eBay with a story of how it has 350 BTC on it.

Who wants to seed this investment?

j/k, maybe.....
 
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James Fake

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E T H E R E U M.

I have a feeling ETH may go crazy in gains over the next months.

I have also did a 180 Pivot on my stance with Bitcoin. I am now Bull'ish. Please take a look at and read.
PIVOT: I'm Now Bull'ish on Bitcoin. Chance ETH May ROCKET UP for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD by dragon

Here is the copied/pasted text from it.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Although Bitcoin has freakish'ly followed to the T my last prediction I posted (I will post screenshot of this) about it going completely bonkers and crashing down again; I AM NOW PIVOTING COMPLETELY. I am now bull'ish on Bitcoin , I do not think it will crash anymore.

Great investors and traders adapt like water. And in this case, some key fundamentals and mass social psy has changed since I've posted that.

My fundamentals still stand from the pink comment boxes from that Bear prediction; however, I think BTC somehow from some 'trigger' event within the next year or so becomes a hedge like Gold against the market. Once this is proven that BTC is universally and globally recognized as a PROVEN hedge and store of value like Gold ; the WORLD will become bull'ish, they have no choice once it validates itself as a true store of value. Bitcoin will have officially ended it's Bear cycle and completely exited out of accumulation range and in the early stages of the Bull.

LOOK OUT FOR ETH. My spidey senses led me to ETH last week and I never dismiss my 'senses'. I looked at charts to see if my 'sense' was indeed correct and if things from a technical side may be lining up... it is.

I got into a Huge position with ETH at $198 that I plan to hold for a few months. There is a good chance ETH may go haywire crazy. I will leave my ETH position once I feel it has 'topped' and ready for correction from it.

Bitcoin will continue consolidating for awhile, but in a oh so slightly upward trend consolidation.

Happy trading, and good luck...
 
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c4n

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Here is the copied/pasted text from it.

Are you sure you posted the correct link? The one above is still bearish (expecting a crash in 2020)?
 

LifeTransformer

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Okay, not looked at a chart for weeks/months, because I've been busy doing boring real life work kinda crap...

I gets a notification that this thread has been posted in, so I thought I'd take a look. What do I see? People trying to make charts tell them what they want, and not seeing what they're actually telling you.

#1 - Volume is pitiful for both BTC & ETH
#2 - Both have given sell signals in the past couple weeks
#3 - BTC looks like it's just about to second sell signal in the coming days

Bullish? Bullshit.
 

James Fake

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Well that escalated quickly.. I take back my last prediction and go back to my first: $2,800 Bitcoin Inside BIG BEAR. Recessions Make Billionaires. for BITFINEX:BTCUSD by dragon jk jk..

But, seriously.. this sell off was a bit "off", I've seen my share of dumps. I'm like the dump king, if there's dump, there's James.. poo poo master. But just a bit weird technically. I may be completely wrong like I just was... but usually dumps happen from a 50/50 neutral point where it's half a dozen one way, 6 the other. Things dumped from a non-neutral point & went from fairly oversold to historical record best oversold yet the sell volume doesn't match. Different indicators like RSIs spreads, and 200MA touches, this sell off is doing some things that has only happened a few times in crypto's history. If it does recover and print a huge fake out, they are usually followed by a full on bull.

Either:

a) Somehow, Bitcoin shoots back up before Sunday's weekly candle close to $9,700 and prints a hugemongous fake out candle.. or

b) I sit with a big bag of Eth next to me til sometime in 2020 lol.
 
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Schonox

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Well that escalated quickly.. I take back my last prediction and go back to my first: $2,800 Bitcoin Inside BIG BEAR. Recessions Make Billionaires. for BITFINEX:BTCUSD by dragon

But, seriously.. this sell off was a bit "off", I've seen my share of dumps. I'm like the dump king, if there's dump, there's James.. poo poo master. But just a bit weird technically. I may be completely wrong like I just was... but usually dumps happen from a 50/50 neutral point where it's half a dozen one way, 12 the other. Things dumped from a non-neutral point & went from fairly oversold to historical record best oversold yet the sell volume doesn't match. Different indicators like RSIs spreads, and 200MA touches, this sell off is doing some things that has only happened a few times in crypto's history. If it does recover and print a huge fake out, they are usually followed by a full on bull.

Either:

a) Somehow, Bitcoin shoots back up before Sunday's weekly candle close to $9,700 and prints a hugemongous fake out candle.. or

b) I sit with a big bag of Eth next to me til sometime in 2020 lol.

Pretty sure BTC will attain ATH in a few months time (<May 2020)
Good time to get in nowfrom my pov.
 
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paulmp

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Hell,I've seen some on bitcoin talk forums that will do it for comission paid in btc recovered.

Though I have to wonder what kind of pro sysadmin never has a paper/ offline lto/optidisc back up of keys.

The kind that shortsightedly thought bitcoin was a fad that would crash and burn, they were still worth next to nothing when the hard drive crashed. Also have you ever seen a landscaper's garden or a mechanic's car? It is the same with sysadmin's home systems...
 

c4n

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Well that escalated quickly..

Yep, lol. I too was way off and my SL got hit rather quickly. I am eager to see how this one will play out...
 

Jeff Noel

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I'm curious, what do you guys think of Mcafee's prediction ?

$1M by the ennd of 2020.

27636

27637
 
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nitrousflame

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I'm curious, what do you guys think of Mcafee's prediction ?

McAfee's taste for insanity is stronger than mine:
1*QZxTofnMCgwEjoaDNznLDw.png

Source: Bitcoin’s natural long-term power-law corridor of growth
 

James Fake

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@Jeff Noel @nitrousflame - hmm... I'm not sure if I'm That bull'ish or not lol.. I think eventually it will hit a ceiling where the lack of infrastructure to really make crypto fly does not meet the price and it super crashes... DEEP DEPRESSION PART 2 lol
 
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James Fake

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I took some time this morning and came up with this... More neutral stance but sharing alot of the same reasonings. Ironically; I was extremely right on my one prediction before I stupidly abandoned.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Albiet a 'weak' bull lol.

I spent a couple hours deeply analyzing some things from this sell off. Looking back at my previous prediction before I switched (forehead slap), I still believe in the fundamentals of my last one while also my old bear'ish one as well. So I analyzed and mixed the two at how I think 2019 to 2022 plays out. Now that I truly know the public and trader sentiment, I narrowed down a similar area and found a possible fractal where sentiment was about the same
(coming off a big bull'ish trend, hard sell-off after long consolidation into correction causing uncertainty if really in a bull market, questioning the last rally, a very strong "I told you so" area, validating and intensifying disbelief, etc.)

I think some traits we find common is from a sentiment like this: most people turn bear for at least the short and mid term, but often the price does not go as low as they hoped to catch it. As they await a lengthy consolidation which turns out to actually be the bottom area, the price pumps upward, causing more disbelief. All the while, the floor keeps rising with every pullback/correction. Eventually, the disbelief will end and likely those not converted psy quick enough will get caught into fomo'ing in. And repeat.

I still believe we are in a "bullish" market albeit the strong pullback which is expected during the very early bull stages. I think we still have another leg down which possibly could give us our lowest point before the eventual slow rise up depending on how monthly candles print for the next 2-3 months.

Timeline Steps:
1) A bounce from daily 200MA to ~$8500-8600ish to finish out our monthly candle.
2) Sept. Monthly candle prints 'Three Black Crows' pattern which results in another sell off leg down to ~$7300-7500
3) Hard bounce back to daily 200MA line. Possibly ~$8500 (rough guess) range
4) Sideways consolidation (may be month(s) of it into:
a) Pullback/correction ~$7800ish then long period of more sideways consolidation and low volatility , followed by eventually slow rise - or -
b) One more sell off down to $5k's to finish out the 'Three Black Crows' monthly pattern with a quick bounce up and then repeating from Step #3

Note: If over the next two days, the daily 200MA fails and falls to ~$7200ish area, then disregard the first Timeline Scenario.. likely a serious of bear flags and dumps down to $6k then $5k at the bottom in a span of 2-3 weeks.

Long-Term:
1) Halving will product just a small upward movement, possibly flat, but I doubt any sell-off by the time we approach it. People are going to hold to 'sell the halving news' or just hold for long term.

2) A recession is inevitable eventually. Whether 2020, 2021, 2022, etc. Although more likely by mid to late 2020 and 2021. I feel the same as before: I believe by this time, Bitcoin will continue rising and the floor will just raise higher and higher over the span of 2 years after the Halving, eventually reaching a parabolic stage again once BITCOIN FINALLY PROVES IT HAS REAL VALIDATED IN REAL WORLD UTILITY AS A GLOBAL STORE OF VALUE MUCH LIKE GOLD. I think this is what will trigger and cause Bitcoin to go parabolic possibly over $100,000 as now it's not just priced at speculation, but it's actually proven worth something.

If I'm wrong about this.. bye bye Bitcoin until infrastructure arrives (internet 2000 to 2010)

3) Also; during that parabolic stage.. 2021, 2022, or even 2023.. whenever it is. SELL EVERYTHING as soon as you hear the word Bitcoin mentioned in a hip hop song. Or when CNBC starts putting on segments on how to buy controversial Alts.


I want to also add this in here to play devil's advocate.

IF Bitcoin reacts the opposite and dumps similar to how Gold did in 2009 Great Recession (which Gold may or may not hedge itself sometimes, and the Great Recession was almost a unique one of total financial collapse)... anyways; if Bitcoin dumps hard like Gold did during that recession. All bets are off.

Bitcoin will hit the total shits never to be seen again for 7-8 years if that happens. I think the next 3-4 years will be very interesting how it all goes down in the history books...
 
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James Fake

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I also want to add this in here... I know a lot of traders/investors are licking their chops at the upcoming halving sometime in 2020. My fear, albeit small right now but gradually growing, is that it will do Exactly The Opposite this time around.

From what I can gather in my research:
1st: People didn't know what to expect. Eventual bull market a year or so later.

2nd: Early adopters/believers got in. Made a killing.

Upcoming 3rd: Early majority, Late majority, non-believers of crypto tech, etc. are all licking their chops with greedy dollar signs in their eyes.

I'm not so sure... Anyways, just a thought on a concern of mine.
 

Roli

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James Fake

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Internet without internet aka peer to peer intra-internet. Peer A is within promixity Peer B and Peer A's blockchain is now updated. Peer A also connects to wifi at home after working the hayfields all day, Peer A's blockchain again gets updated to latest version. No government can stop blockchain via blocking internet access now; its truly decentralized.

For years, I've wondered if bluetooth (or something like it) would gradually strengthen & evolve to be a building stone of it.

Today, the first small step was taken in this 100 mile journey,.. and they don't even realize what they're really creating.

https://techcrunch.com/2019/09/25/amazon-sidewalk-is-a-new-long-range-wireless-network-for-your-stuff/
 
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TinyTim

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Just thinking - where is the money going to come from to create a new high?

Institutions don't really care yet (Bakkt fail). These people want to dump on retail, not the other way. Plus, retail mania peaked 2 years ago.

The recent BTC climb was ignited from the Plustoken ponzi in China. People then started selling alts into BTC. I can't predict where we go from here, but there needs to be a mammoth trigger to hit those $100k BTC targets.
 

Schonox

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Tbh I just think it's a matter of supply and demand.
Since it's the main decentralized coin out there, with an ever declining amount of btc in circulation and a somewhat growing adoption, I can only see BTC being worth a lot more in the future.
If you understand the basics, the history and the applications, you should be able to see that what we're seeing here is what happened in the past to tulip bulbs in The Netherlands. They were worth a LOT. Now they are worth next to nothing. Why? Because anyone can grow millions whenever they want to nowadays. In the past it was an exotic and rare product. Our understanding of fiat money will sooner or later be looked upon as something very obsolete. Cash money? Please.
 

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They were worth a LOT. Now they are worth next to nothing. Why? Because anyone can grow millions whenever they want to nowadays. In the past it was an exotic and rare product.

Just to play the contrarian - 5 years later:

Bitcoins were worth a LOT. Now they are worth next to nothing. Why? Because every country has its own digital currency nowadays. In the past it was an exotic and rare product.
 
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Schonox

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5 years later..

Bitcoins were worth a LOT. Now they are worth next to nothing. Why? Because every country has its own digital currency nowadays. In the past it was an exotic and rare product.

Bitcoin is decentralized whereas possible future countries' currency will be centralized. It's price cannot be manipulated as fiat money can.
It's usage is widespread, total amount is limited.
Bitcoin is not XRP and XRP is not Ethereum. They differ hugely.
 

TinyTim

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Bitcoin is decentralized whereas possible future countries' currency will be centralized. It's price cannot be manipulated as fiat money can.
It's usage is widespread, total amount is limited.
Bitcoin is not XRP and XRP is not Ethereum. They differ hugely.

There is indeed benefit to a decentralized digital currency, although I could argue that BTC is not very decentralized as it stands. It's in the hands of a few. Oh, and China essentially owns crypto mining.

Also, "it's price can not be manipulated" - The BTC price is hugely manipulated.
 

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