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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

Roli

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What do you think of getting Solana at today's prices?
If the market recovers, it should go 3X, at least.

Mathematically looks like a good bet.

Solana's a bit of a weird one, they were loosely linked to FTX (can't remember how, but I think they invested), plus the whole chain seems to be built upon NFTs and Magic Eden.

However, the piece of software that's coming out which will stop 3rd party sites being able to circumvent royalties, may very well kick Solana off again.

It's dirt cheap now so maybe it's worth a bit of a gamble, not sure if I see it going back to its previous $200 though.

I'd like to see them do something away from NFTs because then we'll really get a handle on their true value.
 
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Speculatooor

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Doge is psychology. If I buy it, I bet, that millions of people will buy it in the next bullrun in a timeframe of 2 days.
I don’t makethat bet now, as it will go down much more, and if its time, I will decide, if its likely , that the run of millions will happen.

This is called a game of Greater Fools

True, but the USD represents the US government, its military, its taxation, and its GDP.

I have spent the past few years studying this area of economics.

USD is a debt-based fiat currency that only holds value for as long as people are willing to trust and sell their labour for USD.

It is entirely unbacked since nixons action in 1971. You cannot redeem your paper 100 dollar bill for anything (definitely not a piece of the economy), only spend it on goods/services.
Why do people still embrace USD? Because it is one big psychological scheme of trust. If others think the USD had value, then you can trade it with them. With commodity-backing you can trust the commodity's value. Without any backing you need to trust that other people will trust the currency.

Thus the #1 goal of the FED is to retain trust in the USD, and keep its dominance over the world as a global reserve currency. The US military enforces the scheme of oil (most important commodity of the world) only being purchaseable in dollars, to keep a demand for it.

USD is a debt-based currency, meaning that new money gets loaned into existance with interest that is unable to be paid off.. unless new money is being loaned into existance to service it.

This means that devaluation is an inherent feature of the system since 1971. Gold-backing used to at least limit the money supply expansion.

Knowing this, to retain the value of your wealth, you need to store it in scarce goods. This is why real estate has become the #1 savings vehicle for people, even though it is originally a bad investment (illiquid/maintanace/taxes/etc).

How does this all end?

A central bank has a triangle of trade-offs -> pick two at the cost of the third

1) steady rising wages
2) stable prices
3) full unemployment

They have chosen for 2 and 3, at the cost of 1. But the problem is that they assume that Labour can be permanently fooled.

That is, until a better (scarce) store of value exists where people will want to save in and work for. One that is trustable due to certain qualities. Or society implodes due to revolts by the fleeced have-nots against the subsidized haves.

Fiat currency will eventually go back to it's intrinsic value of zero. It has been used many times in history before and always ends the same.
 

Ing

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This is called a game of Greater Fools
Yes, I m guilty, sir.
I have spent the past few years studying this area of economics.

USD is a debt-based fiat currency that only holds value for as long as people are willing to trust and sell their labour for USD.

It is entirely unbacked since nixons action in 1971. You cannot redeem your paper 100 dollar bill for anything (definitely not a piece of the economy), only spend it on goods/services.
Why do people still embrace USD? Because it is one big psychological scheme of trust. If others think the USD had value, then you can trade it with them. With commodity-backing you can trust the commodity's value. Without any backing you need to trust that other people will trust the currency.

Thus the #1 goal of the FED is to retain trust in the USD, and keep its dominance over the world as a global reserve currency. The US military enforces the scheme of oil (most important commodity of the world) only being purchaseable in dollars, to keep a demand for it.

USD is a debt-based currency, meaning that new money gets loaned into existance with interest that is unable to be paid off.. unless new money is being loaned into existance to service it.

This means that devaluation is an inherent feature of the system since 1971. Gold-backing used to at least limit the money supply expansion.

Knowing this, to retain the value of your wealth, you need to store it in scarce goods. This is why real estate has become the #1 savings vehicle for people, even though it is originally a bad investment (illiquid/maintanace/taxes/etc).

How does this all end?

A central bank has a triangle of trade-offs -> pick two at the cost of the third

1) steady rising wages
2) stable prices
3) full unemployment

They have chosen for 2 and 3, at the cost of 1. But the problem is that they assume that Labour can be permanently fooled.

That is, until a better (scarce) store of value exists where people will want to save in and work for. One that is trustable due to certain qualities. Or society implodes due to revolts by the fleeced have-nots against the subsidized haves.

Fiat currency will eventually go back to it's intrinsic value of zero. It has been used many times in history before and always ends the same.
And now tell me the difference between Doge and Usd!

Btw. I just discovered a usecase for Doge. A friend in New Sealand had an accident today and needed some money. I sent him about 2k Euro in Doge. Gas fee was 11 cent for the test sending (200doge) and 10 ct for the rest. It took 8 minutes and he could immediately cash it out with Binance Visa Card.
So you can talk Crypto and Doge and that shit bad, but I like it more and more!
 

MJ DeMarco

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Visualizing_FTX_Balance_Sheet_FN.jpg
 
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Speculatooor

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And now tell me the difference between Doge and Usd!

They are more the same than they are different, in the sense they both have an unlimited supply.
Atleast the USD has a limit on volatility due to FEDs manipulation of interest rates (and obviously is world reserve currency), where DOGE just has extreme volatility.

With Bitcoin, you can trust the monetary policy of the code (21m supply cap, inflation rate halving every ~4 years).
With USD, you can trust the FED. (Lol)
With DOGE you can trust ... the meme to still be relevant in the future?
 

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I can buy goods and food with USD. What can I buy with DOGE? Not JPEGs on a blockchain, I hope.
 
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Ing

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I can buy goods and food with USD. What can I buy with DOGE? Not JPEGs on a blockchain, I hope.
Sorry, but you can buy goods and food with Doge. And Teslas ( I don’t want one, but you can.
 

Ing

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Xeon

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MJ DeMarco

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EmotionEngine

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MitchC

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Are we being woken up or are they just so powerful they don’t care that we know

This kind of talk is becoming more and more mainstream with every bs thing these people do

I hope something is going to happen to these people
 

srodrigo

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If I buy DOGE, what am I betting on?

Absolutely nothing, other than a false hope that the 2nd coming of Electric Car Jesus tweets about it.
I'm glad that EC Jesus ran away from this forum when he considered joining. Imagine having to read his "tweets" here all day.
 

socaldude

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Interesting divergence right now in that almost all cryptos are red yet DOGE is green.
 
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Kevin88660

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Some of my insights/Prediction/Guessing

1) Crypto is back to 2017 Dec market cap, but with much more technical development and investment awareness

2)Much of FTX contagion is still unreported. Many projects lend out crypto and cefi and trading firms as collateral and likely not getting any cent back. Many old projects will not survive. You will not hear them crying out for help until bankruptcy. Pretend to be okay and ask for new investment then you might survive. We know that's how they behaved so far.

3)Despite mainstream attention focusing on bearishness, rightfully and justified so. There are still many mainstream asset management firm (VC and family office) dabbling into the hottest theme right now. You see so many job portal looking for onsite/remote defi/gamefi/nft/web3 analyst and researcher. You thought that we are still in a bull market.

4) Macro market dependent on China and Russia. Once the Ukraine war stops and China stops zero-covid, production will be back on track pushing inflation down, Fed will have more room to ease. But again, not happening anytime too soon.

5) Regulation coming down hard for sure.


Personally I am bullish on large cap that are not target for regulatory hammer. Focus on POW large caps. There aren't 21 million btc around. Many have been lost along the way and many circulating in the market are "ghost btc" which is essentially a credit note of btc promised by centralised exchanges but do not exist. This phenomenon of shortage is worst in Ethereum, but again there is always the SEC sword dangling against POS coins.

Focus on small caps in defi/gamefi/nft projects that is spared from the contagion. Especially new projects or those have strong financial backing (appear in Binance lab investment list). Massive QE kind of liquidity not coming back anytime soon (due to point 4), so this space will be VC, family office and HNW individuals trading against each other. But because the market cap in this space is so small we could have crazy volatility 10-50x easily on winning projects, leaving the last round of VC/family office/venture firm being bag holder, because there is no buying power from bigger institution on retail money in mass quantity.

Personally among defi/gamfi/nft my personal favourite is gamefi as this is the only space that has real economics utility besides the traditional crypto space utility (80 percent speculation/gambling, 19 percent illicit activities and 1 percent legal cross border finance).

replies on different opinions are welcomed as I could be wrong or missing out on sth.
 

Kevin88660

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For those who didn’t follow FTX blow up:

Short summary: FTX lent $10bn of client funds to their trading arm Alameda research, which used it for very high-risk crypto bets (leveraged crypto speculation). Alameda lost a lot of this money as crypto prices fell. Investors found out about this & tried to withdraw $8bn from FTX. FTX didn't have it. FTX filed for bankruptcy.

edit: adding source and the long story below, couldn't do it on my phone before:


Long story goes thus:

Meet the main characters​

Sam Bankman-Fried, also known by his initials SBF, is a 2014 MIT physics graduate who made some millions from buying Bitcoin in one market and selling it in another one at a higher price, profiting from the price difference. Something called Bitcoin arbitrage.

In 2017, SBF founded a crypto research and trading firm called Alameda research whose CEO, Caroline Ellison, is also an MIT alum and dated SBF in the past. Alameda research is also sort of a hedge fund.

Also in 2017, Changpeng Zhao, commonly known as "CZ" founded a cryptocurrency exchange called Binance.

In 2019, SBF launched FTX, a crypto exchange. A week ago, FTX was the 2nd largest exchange behind Binance. FTX's native token is called FTT. FTT allows owners enjoy lower trading fees and access a slew of perks on the FTX exchange like using the tokens as collateral to trade derivatives.

Also in 2019, Binance invested as a shareholder in FTX. In 2021, Binance decided to sell its FTX investment. As part of the sale, Binance agreed to take $2B of FTT.

Cut to the year 2022​

The Fed has been increasing interest rates. Investors have been selling down their crypto positions. Cryptocurrency prices have nosedived and not a lot of people are trading crypto (crypto trading volume is low).

On November 6th, CZ announced on Twitter that he's going to sell Binance's $2bn FTT stash due to unspecified recent revelations.

This is bad news for anyone holding FTT. $2bn of selling pressure would crush the price. So FTT holders start to panic sell. Nobody wants to buy FTT because it's too risky, a whale is about to dump and everyone wants to sell. This causes FTT price to drop 15-20% overnight.

Caroline came out and said Alameda will "happily" buy the FTT token at $22 apiece to reduce market impact of the sale.

Let's go back a bit. What could the unspecified revelations have been?​

This is what I've found so far in the public domain

Alameda research had $14bn in assets and about $7bn in liabilities, which indicates that they have enough assets to cover their debt (good thing). However, Coindesk revealed the week before CZ announced the FTT sale that $5.8 billion out of $14.6 billion of assets on Alameda's balance sheet were in FTT.

This simply means Alameda research borrowed money and used FTT tokens as the collateral for those loans. This would be like a company borrowing money and using their shares as collateral for that loan.

The way collaterals work is that if the debtor is unable to pay the loan, the lender can sell the collateral to get their money. If a company is about to default on their loans, this means they are probably in a bad financial position, which will cause their share price to fall significantly. A great illustration of this was China's Evergrande Group in 2021 that saw its share price drop over 90% after they defaulted on their loans.

So, if a company uses their shares as collateral, their lender will not be able to recover their money in full if they try to sell those shares in a default. Thus, no sensible lender will accept a company's shares as collateral for a loan. But this is essentially what Alameda research did. Took loans to make crypto trades and used FTT as the collateral. Remember Alameda research and FTX were founded by the same person.

There is speculation that CZ found out about this and announced the FTT sale to make the FTT price to plummet and force Alameda to file for bankruptcy. But if Alameda goes down, so does FTX.

Why would FTX go down with Alameda?​

The Wall Street Journal reports that of $16bn in customer assets FTX had, they "loaned" $10bn to Alameda research. Alameda probably suffered great losses in any of the several crypto meltdowns that happened this year and could have gone bankrupt. Instead of allowing them fail, FTX gave them more than half of customers' trading money to bail them out.

Why didn't FTX allow Alameda fail?​

FTX gave money that customers deposited on the exchange for trading purposes to Alameda to trade and make profit. While crypto prices were soaring, that arrangement was profitable. But as crypto prices crashed, so did Alameda's money and so did FTX customer assets.


Apart from the conflict of interest with the relationship between SBF and Caroline, if FTX had let Alameda go bankrupt, all Alameda's FTT tokens would have been liquidated in bankruptcy court. As we learnt, Alameda has billions of FTT tokens. So that would have caused FTT tokens to fall significantly in value.

Also, if Alameda went bankrupt, FTX would have lost some of their customer's funds that they gave Alameda to use for trading purposes. This would have been terrible for FTX, so they bailed Alameda out to avoid this and in hopes that Alameda could recover lost funds and repay the "loan".

Now that we know what the unspecified revelations could have been, let's go back to November 7th.​

24 hours after CZ's tweet, FTX had not shown financial strength. This starts to feel like the "steady lads" moment right before Luna collapsed.

No alt text provided for this image

FTX customers start withdrawing funds enmasse in case it collapses like Celsius, Blockfi, Voyager, Luna all did this year. FTX saw billions of withdrawals. They didn't have the cash to give customers, so they paused withdrawls.

This rush to the exits reportedly forced SBF and his team to begin frantically shopping for an acquisition partner, approaching a variety of potential partners before Binance entered the picture.

On November 8th, CZ tweeted that Binance they signed a non-binding agreement to acquire FTX to bail them out of their liquidity issues. CZ bailed out the next day after they saw FTX's books.

Conclusion​

FTX promised users that it would not speculate with cryptocurrencies held in their accounts. If that policy was followed, there should have been no need to pause withdrawals. As we know, that was not the case.

Now​

FTX's legal team have quit. SBF has resigned as CEO. The SEC is investigating FTX and FTX has filed for bankruptcy.

Customers have been unable to withdraw funds and the FTX trading app is reportedly no longer working. It was reported that FTX got "hacked" for $600 million after they filed for bankruptcy. Was this really a hack or the founders getting some money out?

This has caused another crash with most crypto prices falling anywhere from 15% to over 50%. Companies who invested funds with FTX will likely face similar liquidity concerns. Coinbase and Robinhood saw their share price fall over 10%.

Coinbase share price fell out of fears they had exposure to FTX or they were running a similar model, Coinbase has released statements saying saying they do not. Robinhood shares fell because SBF is a large investor in Robinhood and will need to sell a lot of shares to cover his liabilities.

We are yet to see how many businesses will be affected by this (the contagion). In time, this will become clearer.

FTX attracted investors like BlackRock, Ontario Pension Fund, Sequoia, Paradigm, Tiger Global, SoftBank and many more. Sequoia has already written down its $213 million investment in FTX to $0. So, a lot of capital will be destroyed by this.

The billion-dollar question is where did all the money go?​

Some of the money went to Alameda who, as we know, borrowed money to trade crypto (leveraged trading). The thing with trading with leverage is if the trade is profitable, you can magnify your profit several fold but if it's not, you can lose more money than you invested. Alameda used leverage to trade.

Some of the money also went into illiquid investments. The Financial Times received a copy of FTX's balance sheet dated to Thursday, November 10, which shows FTX had only $900mn of liquid assets (assets it can easily sell to get cash), despite having $9bn of liabilities. The balance sheet shows FTX has over $8bn in illiquid assets including in Twitter, and something called TRUMPLOSE (was that a bet that Trump loses something or a donation to the Democratic party to ensure Trump loses? nobody knows).

Moral lessons according to CZ​



  1. Never use a token you created as collateral.
  2. Don’t borrow if you run a crypto business. Crypto is too volatile to use borrowed funds to trade. You can easily magnify your losses


End credits​

SBF is the son of 2 Stanford Law professors
Chandler Guo gave a more "INSIDERS view" on the fiasco and I believed the his version, no doubt cannot be confirmed, is closer to reality. So I am repeating his version that answers "where did the money go".


1) 3AC complained that Alameda shorted LUNA to bankrupt them using INSIDERS information based on their connection with FTX.

2) So Alameda knew everyone's stop loss or liquidation level so when there is crash in market Alameda short the hell until everyone breaks and then reverse into long. This explains their "magical performance" which had not been fraudulent.

3) Alameda did the same against 3AC and others (many of them being FTX clients) on the LUNA short.

4)While Alameda succeed in bankrupting their clients by trading against them, the decision into reverse into long killed itself because Alameda was betting on a coin that was under immense inflationary mechanism when the peg broke loose.

5)Alameda was using leverage as usual. FTX abused its power to pause mark to market liquidation, which tapped into client's fund, as Alameda's collateral deposit was not enough to cover its losing position

6) To cover up the hole, FTX pretended as a savior to save Blockfi which lended 500M to Alameda. Looking back it is more like hush money. FTX extended 500M lona to Blockfi in return Blockfi has to deposit the 500M at FTX. So Money never left FTX.
 

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Ing

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doge is actually in a lot of Pump groups!
 

Arithen

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I can buy goods and food with USD. What can I buy with DOGE? Not JPEGs on a blockchain, I hope.
You can buy JPEGs on a blockchain with USD, too. Opensea has had that as an option for a while now.
 

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Here's a free business idea: Track the projects influencers promote, then give each influencer a score based on how each promoted project turned out (Was it a scam?) It exposes grifters, and gives good influencers who research their sponsors an opportunity to charge more for promotions based on their score.
 
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Ing

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Here's a free business idea: Track the projects influencers promote, then give each influencer a score based on how each promoted project turned out (Was it a scam?) It exposes grifters, and gives good influencers who research their sponsors an opportunity to charge more for promotions based on their score.
I think , thats a really good idea! but it needs a lot of time and forerun.
 

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Time to sell the house, wife and kids, car, dog and borrow massively from banks and illegal money lenders and go all in?
I have a better false prophecy from a "false profit"! :rofl: ONE MILLION DOLLARS!
 
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Ing

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Time to sell the house, wife and kids, car, dog and borrow massively from banks and illegal money lenders and go all in?
When at least all the worms crawl out of their holes, it may be, that the valley between bear and bullrun is near.

I don t know, but perhaps I should tell him, that 2027 there will be no 350k ath for BTC at all, but a nice bear valley, but maybe I m just stupid. Or he allready includet that.
How ever can such a gossip get 130 k followers on Twitter?

BTW: Imo the next months are a good time for DCA.
 

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