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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

Kevin88660

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I thought this was a very good synthesis of what happened with FTX.

TLDR: Smart young billionaire needs to have a high risk tolerance to get where he is, and when you invest with him you are going to have that risk projected onto you.

View: https://twitter.com/callicrates_/status/1590543512055214080
I have been following this quite closely.

The facts are still not fully out and rumors are still flying around.

At this point it is pretty much likely that Sam took customer deposits for lending to “optimize yield” and the entire structure collapse when customers demand withdrawal for six billion dollars a day.

Markets are watching for contagion possibility as the firms are “saying that they have no exposure” to FTX. We will find out.

The incident in my view summaries that crypto is highly risky and only invest what you can lose.

Defi has many major hacks and exploits happening on weekly basis, and if your cold wallets are not of trusted sources you can lose your money. More money are being lost via self custody than on exchange in history, until this week that FTX gets itself in an alleged 8billion hole.
 
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Kevin88660

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How the F*ck do you take customer's assets and trade them without their consent?

Guys like this should be sent away for 20 years.

But no, a slap on a the wrist and a nice cushy job at some VC firm awaits.

View attachment 45877
They are not as regulated as traditional investment under securties and future act. I don’t know the legal term and condition exactly layer out but all it needs is a hidden clause somewhere saying “they have a right to lend out your money”.
 

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Ocean Man

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Yeah right. "Hacked". Oldest excuse in the crypto rugpull playbook.
Either that, or some "errant employee" did it.
 

farmer79

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Wait till you find out what his Mum does and what he was doing with that money

As I read this I had a pleasant thought from the Bernie Madoff trial/fund collection. Anyways they had a special collector and he went after investors who had taken withdrawals pre collapse.


Wouldn’t it just be too wonderful if those woke socialist politicians had to pay back all those fraudulent donations.
 

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Markets are watching for contagion possibility as the firms are “saying that they have no exposure” to FTX. We will find out.
Reminds me of the "we have no exposure to LUNA/3AC" stuff. Turns out plenty did.
 
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EmotionEngine

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Funky stuff going on with FTX right now. Do not visit the website. Do not update or download the app.
Yep. They're getting hacked apparently. I agree stay away from their app.
Screenshot 2022-11-12 022858.jpgimage2.jpg
 
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MJ DeMarco

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I feel sorry for anyone who lost money. Moreover, I feel sorry for anyone who wasted the last TEN YEARS of their life wholly invested in crypto as a "Fastlane" surrogate (which I of course, I never said was a Fastlane) when during that time, they could have created a great business that delivered tangible value. And they could have changed their life for the better. Now they also have a changed life... but not for the better.

Reminder...

 

MJ DeMarco

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MJ DeMarco

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Kevin88660

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I did not expect exchanges that got so bug like FTX would fail.


When you get so big as a custodian you cannot afford to fail. The victims are not just retails but include powerful, nasty and connected people.
I thought the higher management would make sure that they don’t F around with the wrong people.

In 2008 Madoff was rushing to high security prison because he knew that was the safest place. His victims include Royal families, and even alleged criminal gangs from Russia and Columbia. Over the next few years madoff’s close family members were on newspaper for suicide news.

In Crypto the client profile just gets even more nasty.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Kevin88660

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Reminds me of the "we have no exposure to LUNA/3AC" stuff. Turns out plenty did.
A lot hedge fund and etf authorised participants are caught too. The spread to traditional finance is there as well. So hard to believe that there is no contagion.

FTX was also the default broker for institutional players because they had the most comprehensive suit products on derivatives and leverage.

I also had the option to move out close to 10k usd worth of fund out to metamask when I received text from friend on possible FTX going down. But I ignored it as I thought so many institutional players couldn’t be wrong. Painful but not devastating amount. I replied that if FTX goes down, nothing in crypto besides BTC/ETH becomes investable. Indeed that happened and panic selling started. Just because something is bad enough does not mean that it will not happen.
 
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GPM

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Hold your crypto on cold wallets! I never understood holding it on an exchange unless you are doing an immediate trade.

Anyone around during the .com bubble around 99? I was too young to really know what was going on. I do know that some of these companies were getting insane valuations that ended up being essentially nothing and everyone who invested were left with 0.
 
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loop101

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If these FTX kids really ran off with a lot of people's money, they could be in some real trouble. On the early internet, there was a scam website (stocks100.com?) where the two guys that owned it, were shot-gunned when they came to their front door. One of their victims was a Five Families associate (Bonanno?), so it appeared they scammed the wrong guy. The girl that initially answered the door, spoke to the killer, but couldn't remember anything about his appearance. IIRC, she also couldn't remember why she was there. Hopefully FTX only victimized institutions, for their sake.
 

Kevin88660

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If these FTX kids really ran off with a lot of people's money, they could be in some real trouble. On the early internet, there was a scam website (stocks100.com?) where the two guys that owned it, were shot-gunned when they came to their front door. One of their victims was a Five Families associate (Bonanno?), so it appeared they scammed the wrong guy. The girl that initially answered the door, spoke to the killer, but couldn't remember anything about his appearance. IIRC, she also couldn't remember why she was there. Hopefully FTX only victimized institutions, for their sake.
In crypto there are people in this space because they cannot put their money in the bank account. By sheer size of FTX they have already offended many wrong people for sure.
 

MJ DeMarco

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Looks like every exchange is in panic mode with thse emails. First Coinbase, now Gemini...
Screen Shot 2022-11-13 at 10.21.08 AM.png

All my stuff is now in a cold wallet, only shitcoins are left on Coinbase.
 
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Antifragile

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I feel sorry for anyone who lost money. Moreover, I feel sorry for anyone who wasted the last TEN YEARS of their life wholly invested in crypto as a "Fastlane" surrogate (which I of course, I never said was a Fastlane) when during that time, they could have created a great business that delivered tangible value. And they could have changed their life for the better. Now they also have a changed life... but not for the better.

Reminder...


This. People should read this twice.

I’m fortunate to get asked to speak at some events and universities. One question keeps coming up a lot: I’m asked to predict the future. What do I know, right?

Well… I know one thing. I chose my business because it’s been around for as long as history itself. Any product that was around for the past 100 years is likely to be around for another 50. Think items like forks, spoons, clothes, shoes etc.

When I gamble on a new startup (and lose), when I throw some money at crypto (and values plummet) - I know it was a distinct possibility. It’s OK. What is not OK is to bet the farm on something like this without being smarter (or more knowledgeable) than the market, which is a pretty high bar.

That’s why I love “old school” businesses. As @thechosen1 and @Kak discussed a long while back. Those businesses look hard! But hard is good. Easy is bad.
 

MJ DeMarco

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This. People should read this twice.

I’m fortunate to get asked to speak at some events and universities. One question keeps coming up a lot: I’m asked to predict the future. What do I know, right?

Well… I know one thing. I chose my business because it’s been around for as long as history itself. Any product that was around for the past 100 years is likely to be around for another 50. Think items like forks, spoons, clothes, shoes etc.

When I gamble on a new startup (and lose), when I throw some money at crypto (and values plummet) - I know it was a distinct possibility. It’s OK. What is not OK is to bet the farm on something like this without being smarter (or more knowledgeable) than the market, which is a pretty high bar.

That’s why I love “old school” businesses. As @thechosen1 and @Kak discussed a long while back. Those businesses look hard! But hard is good. Easy is bad.

What drew people to crypto was its potential asymmetry while offering IMMEDIATE passivity. A small investment could yield 20000% returns. I invested $1000 in DOGE and now its worth $150,000!

What the average person fails to understand is that a Fastlane business also offers asymmetry, but with the promise of FUTURE passivity. Passivity comes from activity ... in other words, WORK.

You can start a business with $1000 and have it turn into $10M 5 years later, and you have a big element of control as well.
 

Black_Dragon43

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Interesting discussion @MJ DeMarco and @Antifragile. I think “old school” businesses are safer… meaning even when things go bad, usually they’ll not go completely bad. However… safer comes at a cost. It means that there is less profit potential in there.

If you think about the richest people in history… John D Rockefeller, Andrew Carnegie, Henry Ford, Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk… virtually all of them were in the “leading technology” of their era.

Ever wondered why?

It’s in the nature of capitalism. “Mature” markets tend towards perfect competition. Perfect competition erodes profits. Whereas new and speculative markets don’t. They permit large sums of money to be gained (or lost) relatively quickly.

The people who stabilize and bring order to these speculative markets - they become the billionaires and gather up most of the wealth. John D. Rockefeller brought stability to an oil market that was in disarray, with producers going through powerful boom and bust cycles… in the process creating a monopoly and amassing a ton of wealth.

Stability isn’t good for the have nots… for those who aren’t yet rich. For those who haven’t yet made their fortunes. The bigger the chaos, the better for them. Stability tends to be good for those who are already rich, and want to maintain their wealth. Which is why most “old money” is huddled up in “old school” businesses
 
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MJ DeMarco

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stability tends to be good for those who are already rich, and want to maintain their wealth. Which is why most “old money” is huddled up in “old school” businesses

And screaming "socialism!" from behind their Political Action Committees.
 

Antifragile

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Interesting discussion @MJ DeMarco and @Antifragile. I think “old school” businesses are safer… meaning even when things go bad, usually they’ll not go completely bad. However… safer comes at a cost. It means that there is less profit potential in there.

If you think about the richest people in history… John D Rockefeller, Andrew Carnegie, Henry Ford, Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk… virtually all of them were in the “leading technology” of their era.

Ever wondered why?

It’s in the nature of capitalism. “Mature” markets tend towards perfect competition. Perfect competition erodes profits. Whereas new and speculative markets don’t. They permit large sums of money to be gained (or lost) relatively quickly.

The people who stabilize and bring order to these speculative markets - they become the billionaires and gather up most of the wealth. John D. Rockefeller brought stability to an oil market that was in disarray, with producers going through powerful boom and bust cycles… in the process creating a monopoly and amassing a ton of wealth.

Stability isn’t good for the have nots… for those who aren’t yet rich. For those who haven’t yet made their fortunes. The bigger the chaos, the better for them. Stability tends to be good for those who are already rich, and want to maintain their wealth. Which is why most “old money” is huddled up in “old school” businesses

I don't disagree with what you posted, but there are a few things on the "sidelines" that are also important:
  • Rockefeller and other examples were truly brilliant at execution. In fact, prior to Ford bringing autos mainstream, Standard Oil was selling kerosine and throwing out gasoline (typically into rivers that caught fire, which is hard to imagine now!). Meaning that technology caught up to where John D. was heading and it was a welcome change. But even in any "old school" business, he would find ways to innovate and out-execute the rest. He'd be very, very rich but may not be the first billionaire. That is important for anyone reading and being afraid of "old business has no margins" type of thinking. It's not just about the business, it is about YOU.
  • There are many ways to scale and create YOUR margins. For example, "old money" does prefer stability. But they don't always get easy access. And "money managers" are about the worst way I know how to protect your wealth. That means there is always room to solve the inconvenience for the "old money" and getting a cut of the value you provide. Sam Zell became a billionaire in Real Estate... so did Grant Cardone... they are not Elon Musk or Bill Gates rich, but I think the point stands: even "old school" businesses have opportunities for the right type of asymmetry. And real wealth is made in that asymmetry.

Where am I going with this? For readers who think "old school" businesses are un-sexy, don't provide enough opportunities and have too slim for margins, yes, those people! Listen, you are wrong. Your focus is wrong. Focus should be on controlling your outcomes. Gambling on a coin to go up in value is the opposite of that. John D. did not gamble on kerosine prices going up and hoping to "get rich". He bought out producers, arranged for rail, cornered markets and pivoted when new tech arrived. He CREATED solutions to problems. He was active.
 

Black_Dragon43

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Where am I going with this? For readers who think "old school" businesses are un-sexy, don't provide enough opportunities and have too slim for margins, yes, those people! Listen, you are wrong. Your focus is wrong. Focus should be on controlling your outcomes. Gambling on a coin to go up in value is the opposite of that. John D. did not gamble on kerosine prices going up and hoping to "get rich". He bought out producers, arranged for rail, cornered markets and pivoted when new tech arrived. He CREATED solutions to problems. He was active.
I totally agree, being active is one of the main requirements for wealth creation at that level. I’m not suggesting cutting-edge fields reward passivity either because they don’t.

In crypto the biggest winners have been those who started companies in the field… either launched their own coin, or offered services to the crypto market. I know some crypto marketing agencies were making $500-700K/mo profits at the height of it.

However… there’s one other aspect here. You can be brilliant, and still fail in a cutting-edge field. Luck plays a much bigger role than in a “old school” business, which is why cutting edge fields are less safe.

For example: Elon Musk is brilliant. But he came very close to disaster several times, and it’s not entirely his merit that he avoided that fate. Same for Bill Gates. There were many brilliant people active in the field at the time, it’s not entirely his merit that he won against Apple, Xerox & ultimatey IBM.

I can also give you a local example. UiPath (robotics/automation) listed on NYSE and got to a valuation of $36bn in 2021. In 2014/15 they were a software consulting business making $100-200K/yr revenue - barely making ends meet. They had been making that from 2005 to 2015. They had built a product, but couldnt sell it. For 10 years they kept trying, and the owner was about to close shop and get a job… and then, they got a contract from an Indian company for an alternative use for their software.

They did it, secured a $1m investment round from local VCs. Expanded the team, and 6 years later, 2 extra rounds of investments and an IPO they’re worth $36bn and the founder is a billionaire.

I happen to know some of the folks who were there from the beginning. They are good, smart and hard working people. I wouldn’t call them brilliant though. Why are they worth millions (and in the case of the owner billions) today, and most other folks being employed or running software businesses locally just like them are making $100-200K/year still?

The biggest part of it is luck. Sure, they were smart, hard working, ambitious and all the rest of it. But so were many many others just like them. And while being all those things is a requirement for that sort of success, it’s simply not enough. Timing is extremely important.
 
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G

Guest-5ty5s4

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I don't disagree with what you posted, but there are a few things on the "sidelines" that are also important:
  • Rockefeller and other examples were truly brilliant at execution. In fact, prior to Ford bringing autos mainstream, Standard Oil was selling kerosine and throwing out gasoline (typically into rivers that caught fire, which is hard to imagine now!). Meaning that technology caught up to where John D. was heading and it was a welcome change. But even in any "old school" business, he would find ways to innovate and out-execute the rest. He'd be very, very rich but may not be the first billionaire. That is important for anyone reading and being afraid of "old business has no margins" type of thinking. It's not just about the business, it is about YOU.
  • There are many ways to scale and create YOUR margins. For example, "old money" does prefer stability. But they don't always get easy access. And "money managers" are about the worst way I know how to protect your wealth. That means there is always room to solve the inconvenience for the "old money" and getting a cut of the value you provide. Sam Zell became a billionaire in Real Estate... so did Grant Cardone... they are not Elon Musk or Bill Gates rich, but I think the point stands: even "old school" businesses have opportunities for the right type of asymmetry. And real wealth is made in that asymmetry.

Where am I going with this? For readers who think "old school" businesses are un-sexy, don't provide enough opportunities and have too slim for margins, yes, those people! Listen, you are wrong. Your focus is wrong. Focus should be on controlling your outcomes. Gambling on a coin to go up in value is the opposite of that. John D. did not gamble on kerosine prices going up and hoping to "get rich". He bought out producers, arranged for rail, cornered markets and pivoted when new tech arrived. He CREATED solutions to problems. He was active.
Amen, 100% agree. This discussion all comes back to the Locus of Control test, essentially.

Here you are talking about innovating, skewing probability, making incremental improvements to what is tried and true (things that will make you rich!!)...

The total opposite of relying on luck, speculation, gambling, external factors, etc.

There are always some external factors in life, but a smart person wants to minimize those as much as possible. The ideal scenario would be zero external factors, 100% control, 0 downside, 100% upside. Haha!
 

Black_Dragon43

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The ideal scenario would be zero external factors, 100% control, 0 downside, 100% upside. Haha!
There are downsides to 100% control. A simple example… do you want to secure funding for your startup and potentially become the next Facebook but lose control (manority of shares), being left with like 20% of the company OR do you want to maintain 100% control but get no investment?

You can always get more control, but there are going to be increasing costs to it. At some point it doesn’t make sense to push for more control.

The same holds true for safety. You can get video cameras on your property, alarm systems, a security system for your local network, and so on. But the more security you put in place, the more cumbersome your home is to run. The more time it consumes you. The more money it consumes.

Large organisations have to make those tradeoffs all the time. Do we opt for greater control & security or for more flexibility & speed?
 

Roli

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Bitcoin is about to go parabolic in my humble opinion. In the next 12 months it'll be apparent how badly the Chinese economy is doing and this will trigger a bull run on BTC.

Maybe I'm wrong, watch this space to see.
 
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Guest-5ty5s4

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Siphoning money from crypto nuts to their political overlords was quite the scam.

Our sloppy SBF guy was Biden's 2nd biggest donor, and donated heavily to the Democratic party - the guys who most wanted to ban and/or regulate crypto in general. Ironic, right?

And they got all that money just in time to win elections, and then the whole thing collapsed!
 

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Bitcoin is about to go parabolic in my humble opinion. In the next 12 months it'll be apparent how badly the Chinese economy is doing and this will trigger a bull run on BTC.

Maybe I'm wrong, watch this space to see.
I’m not connecting the dots here. Care to elaborate?

  • China isn’t doing as bad as you seem to think.
  • China made mining BTC illegal a while back.
  • China is likely to have its own crypto creation by the government…
How does any of that create a run on BTC?
 

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