Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[mamamargaux]

My opinion Cryptocurrency just opened another avenue for scams and money laundering. Just me.

 

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[Practic]

Yes. The blockchain can be changed. So the history of transactions can be changed.
But at present the encryption difficulty of the two mentioned is still higher than the possibility of hackers.
Though Vitalik ( eth) thinks and talks to increase the difficulty as allready computers are developed, who are said to be able to crack eth difficulty.

Chinese Researchers Claim to Break Encryption Using Quantum Computers​

Chinese Researchers Claim to Break Encryption Using Quantum Computers

Scientists in China are claiming they have found a way for current-generation quantum computers to crack the RSA algorithm underlying the most common form of online encryption.

cacm.acm.org

 

[nitrousflame]

Really nice docu-style video from our very own @Valier. Only about 1/2 through it, but it's worth a watch.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORdWE_ffirg

Great production value here, but no new arguments provided, and certainly not a balanced presentation. There is definitely a content-audience fit here though.

 

[Skroob]

Chinese Researchers Claim to Break Encryption Using Quantum Computers​

Chinese Researchers Claim to Break Encryption Using Quantum Computers

Scientists in China are claiming they have found a way for current-generation quantum computers to crack the RSA algorithm underlying the most common form of online encryption.

cacm.acm.org

I looked into this a bit, and it looks like they are a) using a smallish quantum computer and extrapolating to a much larger one to make the math work, and b) using an algorithm that is considered unreliable at scale. Taking into account the standard box of salt you have to take with anything that comes out of China, I'm not worried about asym encryption being broken anytime soon.

 

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[Practic]

I looked into this a bit, and it looks like they are a) using a smallish quantum computer and extrapolating to a much larger one to make the math work, and b) using an algorithm that is considered unreliable at scale. Taking into account the standard box of salt you have to take with anything that comes out of China, I'm not worried about asym encryption being broken anytime soon.

It is hard to verify such claims, indeed. But there are many such reports in the lasts months.

Here are some published articles:

Researchers claim that they can break encryption with 372 qubits quantum computer Chinese Researchers Claim to Break Encryption Using Quantum Computers

IBM has 433 qubits quantum computer IBM launches its most powerful quantum computer with 433 qubits

In 2023 IBM will have 1000 qubits quantum computer and promises 4000 qubits quantum computer in 2025.

IBM promises a 4,000 qubit quantum computer by 2025: Here's what it means

When will quantum computing move beyond experimentation? IBM CEO Arvind Krishna gives his predictions and explains how IBM intends to deliver quantum computing services to the market.

www.zdnet.com

 

[YanC]

Are we rich again ? Lambo soon ?!

 

[Antifragile]

View attachment 46760

Are we rich again ? Lambo soon ?!

2021 "Back To The Future"!

 

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[Ing]

View attachment 46760

Are we rich again ? Lambo soon ?!

No! Crypto is a scam and dead!

 

[MitchC]

 

[EvanOkanagan]

 

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[Antifragile]

View attachment 46769

Who is Elon mooning very soon? That's just inappropriate!

 

[GPM]

View attachment 46769

I suppose the next bitcoin halving is in March 2024, so yes, it could in fact moon pretty soon.

 

[Antifragile]

I suppose the next bitcoin halving is in March 2024, so yes, it could in fact moon pretty soon.

I don’t think so… I’ve been wrong before. Still, crypto has been bombarded with bad news, and it’s not getting better. Not sure why the recent pump.

 

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[Ing]

In every cycle there were bad news, scams and whatever. What I found for me is, that the principal of the btc cycle is astonishing similar. You can play a bit with this graph. It of course only gives hints, but timing often is similar to the last cycle.

https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/stats/cycle-repeat/

 

[Kevin88660]

I don’t think so… I’ve been wrong before. Still, crypto has been bombarded with bad news, and it’s not getting better. Not sure why the recent pump.

Good cpi numbers and short covering

 

[Antifragile]

Good cpi numbers and short covering

Of course there is also the “gold” of digital world argument that during inflationary times should hold value - Bitcoin. There is hope…

But I see the huge scandals scaring away too many people and large players from investing.

The day of this:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1614633347887804416

View: https://twitter.com/volodyagusak/status/1614633347887804416?s=46&t=EVp7UzkLTf8ax4A2fT4x4Q


… are over.

How long before institutional funds flow in big numbers back into crypto? What will it take?

So I’m a skeptic today.

 

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[Antifragile]

$LYXe mainnet update on the 22nd of January.

Might see a bump or a dump... @MitchC

 

[GPM]

Of course there is also the “gold” of digital world argument that during inflationary times should hold value - Bitcoin. There is hope…

But I see the huge scandals scaring away too many people and large players from investing.

The day of this:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1614633347887804416

View: https://twitter.com/volodyagusak/status/1614633347887804416?s=46&t=EVp7UzkLTf8ax4A2fT4x4Q


… are over.

How long before institutional funds flow in big numbers back into crypto? What will it take?

So I’m a skeptic today.

I don't understand this. If they wanted crypto why didn't they buy and hold crypto? Buying into FTX or coinbase or binance or quadrigacx or whatever is buying into a trading platform, not buying crypto.

 

[YanC]

I don't understand this. If they wanted crypto why didn't they buy and hold crypto? Buying into FTX or coinbase or binance or quadrigacx or whatever is buying into a trading platform, not buying crypto.

Maybe regulations prohibit them from directly buying crypto, while they can buy stocks, even if they are crypto related ? I don't know about Canada, and actually don't know precisely about here, but pension funds are heavily regulated and I would be very surprised if they were authorized to buy BTC in France.

 

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[Skroob]

I don't understand this. If they wanted crypto why didn't they buy and hold crypto? Buying into FTX or coinbase or binance or quadrigacx or whatever is buying into a trading platform, not buying crypto.

Because they didn't want crypto, they wanted the crypto industry. Since its a pension fund, they may have had rules that wouldn't let them "invest" directly in crypto, so they instead went into a crypto company. Basically, they saw Canadian rainbow dollars raining down from the skies and didn't want to miss out, so they jumped into what they could.

Related, this nonsense is why I'm glad I'll never have or need to depend on a pension to support me. You have zero control over what these people do with the money, even though it affects you directly.

 

[MitchC]

$LYXe mainnet update on the 22nd of January.

Might see a bump or a dump... @MitchC

Thanks for the update, every time this threads bumped I remember I have it and wonder what’s happening.

Knowing our luck it’ll dump because it’s not going to pump and everyone that’s been waiting for mainnet and a pump will sell.

It’d almost be better if they waited for the next bull market to launch.

 

[Roli]

Bitcoin is about to go parabolic in my humble opinion. In the next 12 months it'll be apparent how badly the Chinese economy is doing and this will trigger a bull run on BTC.

Maybe I'm wrong, watch this space to see.

It's starting, up 20% from when I posted this, I predict it's $60k high (or there abouts) by around March/April as the halvening approaches.

 

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[Xeon]

A big trap has been laid for the bulls and once the bulls are all in, snap.

 

[Kevin88660]

Fro

Of course there is also the “gold” of digital world argument that during inflationary times should hold value - Bitcoin. There is hope…

But I see the huge scandals scaring away too many people and large players from investing.

The day of this:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1614633347887804416

View: https://twitter.com/volodyagusak/status/1614633347887804416?s=46&t=EVp7UzkLTf8ax4A2fT4x4Q


… are over.

How long before institutional funds flow in big numbers back into crypto? What will it take?

So I’m a skeptic today.

From a technical trading point of view, btc has already been institutionalized. The correlation with tech stock and nasdaq has been high.

BTC will move together as tech index with higher.
volatility.

The good news is that there is no more three year bear market and one year bull market kind of cycle. Duration of bull market depends on tech stock and risk asset behavior in general. Good news is that bull market will be longer and bear market will be shorter.

But because right now all tech stocks valuation are decimated, I think this profound change is still under appreciated.

 

[Antifragile]

Fro

From a technical trading point of view, btc has already been institutionalized. The correlation with tech stock and nasdaq has been high.

BTC will move together as tech index with higher.
volatility.

The good news is that there is no more three year bear market and one year bull market kind of cycle. Duration of bull market depends on tech stock and risk asset behavior in general. Good news is that bull market will be longer and bear market will be shorter.

But because right now all tech stocks valuation are decimated, I think this profound change is still under appreciated.

Is this your option or do you have some way of showing this to be true?

 

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[Kevin88660]

Is this your option or do you have some way of showing this to be true?

Since it involves my opinion on the future which has yet to be fully played out. It is my opinion.

But there is evidence that bitcoin and tech stock price opinion is getting very higher. This is not seen in previous cycles.

 

[Xeon]

U.S. to announce international cryptocurrency action -statement

The U.S. Justice Department will "announce a major, international cryptocurrency enforcement action" on Wednesday, it said in a statement, adding the U.S. Treasury Department will also make an announcement.

www.reuters.com

Not sure what they're going to announce. Maybe crypto will crash hard following this news.

 

[Skroob]

U.S. to announce international cryptocurrency action -statement

The U.S. Justice Department will "announce a major, international cryptocurrency enforcement action" on Wednesday, it said in a statement, adding the U.S. Treasury Department will also make an announcement.

www.reuters.com

Not sure what they're going to announce. Maybe crypto will crash hard following this news.

They did it this afternoon. It was action against some Russian exchange nobody’s ever heard of.

 

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[Xeon]

They did it this afternoon. It was action against some Russian exchange nobody’s ever heard of.

They are likely just warming up:

"Assistant Attorney General Kenneth Polite of the Department of Justice's criminal division suggested U.S. authorities were “just getting started” in cracking down on similar firms involved in facilitating money laundering. Though no official directly commented on the ongoing case against crypto exchange FTX and its former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, Monaco warned against those committing crimes against the U.S. financial system “from a tropical island"

Bitzlato and its founder face enforcement actions from US authorities

The U.S. Justice Department and Treasury Department jointly announced the major international cryptocurrency enforcement action.

cointelegraph.com

 

[Skroob]

They are likely just warming up:

"Assistant Attorney General Kenneth Polite of the Department of Justice's criminal division suggested U.S. authorities were “just getting started” in cracking down on similar firms involved in facilitating money laundering. Though no official directly commented on the ongoing case against crypto exchange FTX and its former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, Monaco warned against those committing crimes against the U.S. financial system “from a tropical island"

Bitzlato and its founder face enforcement actions from US authorities

The U.S. Justice Department and Treasury Department jointly announced the major international cryptocurrency enforcement action.

cointelegraph.com

Oh I’m sure there’ll be more, and worse. They’ve got themselves a big ol’ government sized stick, and they’re gonna hit every single thing they can with it.