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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

Roli

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I’m not connecting the dots here. Care to elaborate?

  • China isn’t doing as bad as you seem to think.
  • China made mining BTC illegal a while back.
  • China is likely to have its own crypto creation by the government…
How does any of that create a run on BTC?


China isn't doing as well as you seem to think :)

They are about to be hit with a multi-trillion mortgage black hole. In summary, the Chinese govt. sanctioned a bunch of property development companies to build houses to sell to China's slowly growing, middle classes.

In order to fund this they ordered a bunch of banks to lend them as much money as they asked for (seriously), this led to a housing boom on steroids. However people started paying the mortgages before the properties were built and the developers carried on borrowing money to build more houses, which was all fine and dandy when the market was going up.

Because the banks were told to lend them as much as they wanted, the companies were desperate to take advantage of that, so even when the market began to dip, they carried on borrowing and used a fair chunk of the newly borrowed money to pay off the interest of previous loans (can you see where this is going?)

Then they had a situation whereby Chinese investors were seeing new developments going up next to ones they had begun to pay for, often in the same apartment complexes. The problem was, these apartments were like half price of the ones they'd paid for.

It doesn't take a genius to work out that if you have a house for sale and your neighbour has the identical house on sale for half the price you do, that your house will not sell.

This led to a lot of angry investors basically saying "we're not paying these mortgages."

This led to property development companies saying to the banks, "sorry, we can't pay you back."

This led to the (often newly formed) banks saying to customers. "Sorry, no withdrawals, we haven't got any money."

This sparked off some very unChinese countrywide protests, whereby people had lost their savings over night and were extremely upset. At these protests, people often hold up two signs, one with words to the effect of "give us back our money you crooks." and another to the effect of "we love our government (please don't disappear us)".

Add to this that Xing has gone stark raving mad, has declared himself a deity, banned various words which may be used to mock him and is doggedly sticking to his "zero Covid" policy which is crippling the manufacturing and tech sectors because he is quite prepared to shut down a region with 20,000,000 people for the sake of one asymptomatic case of Covid.

There is still more nuance to it, but this is the crux of why I believe that China is about to fall and fall hard.

A cryptocurrency run by the Chinese government, will operate something like a child care facility run by R. Kelly.

Where Bitcoin is mined doesn't really have any effect on price, as long as it is being mined.

But like I said, maybe I'm wrong, this is just my interpretation of events. Do with it what you will :)
 
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farmer79

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I think the interesting thing in bitcoin is what is the cost basis of every coin. I am a crypto idiot who does not understand blockchain at all? is this possible? What I want to know for example is where are Winklevoss’ in from etc. Are there price points that will trigger huge sales because if there is the market is an excellent plumber and will trade to those levels.

As a trader it is really interesting to get into the heads of these guys and try and figure out what they would do at certain price points. Not just price points but Equity levels, for example if there was a purchase of say 2000 bit coin at $500 they were at nearly 140,000,000, you would have to think they have a number where they would bail and at least salvage 15-20 million. I would also like to know how much leverage and how many loans have been made against bitcoin. I could absolute see a rally but I could also see some painful spikes down below 10,000 if it triggers volume. Markets always move in search of volume.
 

MJ DeMarco

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DOGE's market cap is $11.2 BILLION.

Tell me... does anyone read $11.2 BILLION in value here?

Even it's "official description" reads like a big FAT shitpile of nothing.

But yea, $11.2 billion.



1668444241588.png

This is why so many markets need a SHAKE OUT so this irrationality comes back to common sense.

 

S.Y.

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It truly a shame. I feel for people that invested too much in crypto and are now in a desperate position.

Hopefully the shake out will allow projects with true potential to leap forward and take the lead. I believe in the potential of Blockchain. Unfortunaly it has been overshadowed by bad crypto news.

It is ironic that something upposed to be decentralized and have trust at its core is revealing itself to be anything but that.
 
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Antifragile

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For those who didn’t follow FTX blow up:

Short summary: FTX lent $10bn of client funds to their trading arm Alameda research, which used it for very high-risk crypto bets (leveraged crypto speculation). Alameda lost a lot of this money as crypto prices fell. Investors found out about this & tried to withdraw $8bn from FTX. FTX didn't have it. FTX filed for bankruptcy.

edit: adding source and the long story below, couldn't do it on my phone before:


Long story goes thus:

Meet the main characters​

Sam Bankman-Fried, also known by his initials SBF, is a 2014 MIT physics graduate who made some millions from buying Bitcoin in one market and selling it in another one at a higher price, profiting from the price difference. Something called Bitcoin arbitrage.

In 2017, SBF founded a crypto research and trading firm called Alameda research whose CEO, Caroline Ellison, is also an MIT alum and dated SBF in the past. Alameda research is also sort of a hedge fund.

Also in 2017, Changpeng Zhao, commonly known as "CZ" founded a cryptocurrency exchange called Binance.

In 2019, SBF launched FTX, a crypto exchange. A week ago, FTX was the 2nd largest exchange behind Binance. FTX's native token is called FTT. FTT allows owners enjoy lower trading fees and access a slew of perks on the FTX exchange like using the tokens as collateral to trade derivatives.

Also in 2019, Binance invested as a shareholder in FTX. In 2021, Binance decided to sell its FTX investment. As part of the sale, Binance agreed to take $2B of FTT.

Cut to the year 2022​

The Fed has been increasing interest rates. Investors have been selling down their crypto positions. Cryptocurrency prices have nosedived and not a lot of people are trading crypto (crypto trading volume is low).

On November 6th, CZ announced on Twitter that he's going to sell Binance's $2bn FTT stash due to unspecified recent revelations.

This is bad news for anyone holding FTT. $2bn of selling pressure would crush the price. So FTT holders start to panic sell. Nobody wants to buy FTT because it's too risky, a whale is about to dump and everyone wants to sell. This causes FTT price to drop 15-20% overnight.

Caroline came out and said Alameda will "happily" buy the FTT token at $22 apiece to reduce market impact of the sale.

Let's go back a bit. What could the unspecified revelations have been?​

This is what I've found so far in the public domain

Alameda research had $14bn in assets and about $7bn in liabilities, which indicates that they have enough assets to cover their debt (good thing). However, Coindesk revealed the week before CZ announced the FTT sale that $5.8 billion out of $14.6 billion of assets on Alameda's balance sheet were in FTT.

This simply means Alameda research borrowed money and used FTT tokens as the collateral for those loans. This would be like a company borrowing money and using their shares as collateral for that loan.

The way collaterals work is that if the debtor is unable to pay the loan, the lender can sell the collateral to get their money. If a company is about to default on their loans, this means they are probably in a bad financial position, which will cause their share price to fall significantly. A great illustration of this was China's Evergrande Group in 2021 that saw its share price drop over 90% after they defaulted on their loans.

So, if a company uses their shares as collateral, their lender will not be able to recover their money in full if they try to sell those shares in a default. Thus, no sensible lender will accept a company's shares as collateral for a loan. But this is essentially what Alameda research did. Took loans to make crypto trades and used FTT as the collateral. Remember Alameda research and FTX were founded by the same person.

There is speculation that CZ found out about this and announced the FTT sale to make the FTT price to plummet and force Alameda to file for bankruptcy. But if Alameda goes down, so does FTX.

Why would FTX go down with Alameda?​

The Wall Street Journal reports that of $16bn in customer assets FTX had, they "loaned" $10bn to Alameda research. Alameda probably suffered great losses in any of the several crypto meltdowns that happened this year and could have gone bankrupt. Instead of allowing them fail, FTX gave them more than half of customers' trading money to bail them out.

Why didn't FTX allow Alameda fail?​

FTX gave money that customers deposited on the exchange for trading purposes to Alameda to trade and make profit. While crypto prices were soaring, that arrangement was profitable. But as crypto prices crashed, so did Alameda's money and so did FTX customer assets.

"A rising tide floats all boats. Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked" - Warren Buffett
Apart from the conflict of interest with the relationship between SBF and Caroline, if FTX had let Alameda go bankrupt, all Alameda's FTT tokens would have been liquidated in bankruptcy court. As we learnt, Alameda has billions of FTT tokens. So that would have caused FTT tokens to fall significantly in value.

Also, if Alameda went bankrupt, FTX would have lost some of their customer's funds that they gave Alameda to use for trading purposes. This would have been terrible for FTX, so they bailed Alameda out to avoid this and in hopes that Alameda could recover lost funds and repay the "loan".

Now that we know what the unspecified revelations could have been, let's go back to November 7th.​

24 hours after CZ's tweet, FTX had not shown financial strength. This starts to feel like the "steady lads" moment right before Luna collapsed.

No alt text provided for this image

FTX customers start withdrawing funds enmasse in case it collapses like Celsius, Blockfi, Voyager, Luna all did this year. FTX saw billions of withdrawals. They didn't have the cash to give customers, so they paused withdrawls.

This rush to the exits reportedly forced SBF and his team to begin frantically shopping for an acquisition partner, approaching a variety of potential partners before Binance entered the picture.

On November 8th, CZ tweeted that Binance they signed a non-binding agreement to acquire FTX to bail them out of their liquidity issues. CZ bailed out the next day after they saw FTX's books.

Conclusion​

FTX promised users that it would not speculate with cryptocurrencies held in their accounts. If that policy was followed, there should have been no need to pause withdrawals. As we know, that was not the case.

Now​

FTX's legal team have quit. SBF has resigned as CEO. The SEC is investigating FTX and FTX has filed for bankruptcy.

Customers have been unable to withdraw funds and the FTX trading app is reportedly no longer working. It was reported that FTX got "hacked" for $600 million after they filed for bankruptcy. Was this really a hack or the founders getting some money out?

This has caused another crash with most crypto prices falling anywhere from 15% to over 50%. Companies who invested funds with FTX will likely face similar liquidity concerns. Coinbase and Robinhood saw their share price fall over 10%.

Coinbase share price fell out of fears they had exposure to FTX or they were running a similar model, Coinbase has released statements saying saying they do not. Robinhood shares fell because SBF is a large investor in Robinhood and will need to sell a lot of shares to cover his liabilities.

We are yet to see how many businesses will be affected by this (the contagion). In time, this will become clearer.

FTX attracted investors like BlackRock, Ontario Pension Fund, Sequoia, Paradigm, Tiger Global, SoftBank and many more. Sequoia has already written down its $213 million investment in FTX to $0. So, a lot of capital will be destroyed by this.

The billion-dollar question is where did all the money go?​

Some of the money went to Alameda who, as we know, borrowed money to trade crypto (leveraged trading). The thing with trading with leverage is if the trade is profitable, you can magnify your profit several fold but if it's not, you can lose more money than you invested. Alameda used leverage to trade.

Some of the money also went into illiquid investments. The Financial Times received a copy of FTX's balance sheet dated to Thursday, November 10, which shows FTX had only $900mn of liquid assets (assets it can easily sell to get cash), despite having $9bn of liabilities. The balance sheet shows FTX has over $8bn in illiquid assets including in Twitter, and something called TRUMPLOSE (was that a bet that Trump loses something or a donation to the Democratic party to ensure Trump loses? nobody knows).

Moral lessons according to CZ​



  1. Never use a token you created as collateral.
  2. Don’t borrow if you run a crypto business. Crypto is too volatile to use borrowed funds to trade. You can easily magnify your losses


End credits​

SBF is the son of 2 Stanford Law professors
 
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G

Guest-5ty5s4

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For those who didn’t follow FTX blow up:

Short summary: FTX lent $10bn of client funds to their trading arm Alameda research, which used it for very high-risk crypto bets (leveraged crypto speculation). Alameda lost a lot of this money as crypto prices fell. Investors found out about this & tried to withdraw $8bn from FTX. FTX didn't have it. FTX filed for bankruptcy.
Basically a ponzi scheme.
 

Black_Dragon43

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DOGE's market cap is $11.2 BILLION.

Tell me... does anyone read $11.2 BILLION in value here?
Hmm honestly I feel this is misleading. DOGE is not a company or an asset like a piece of land.

It’s a currency. Market cap is quite irrelevant. All it means is the value of one unit (in USD) multiplied by the total units on the market.


Here is the market cap of fiat currencies in terms of BTC, the other way around. As you can see, we’re talking trillions+ (converted to usd) or billions in BTC in some cases.

Currency is a very special kind of asset. Around 2,500 trillion usd traded in forex per year for example… kinda ridiculous, but money keeps moving!

So 11 billion for DOGE is imo nothing pretty much. For a currency that is… sorta like the equivalent of Quatar’s Rial…

For that matter BTC is still less than 1% of the fiat forex market, so it’s still really really tiny.

(By the way, none of this means you should invest in crypto. I don’t believe in trading the news, or fundamentals. You should trade price action alone. If anything, the news & fundamentals give you a false sense of certainty imo)
 
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Matt Sun

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Is Fractional Reserve Banking very different from what FTX has done ? Would banks stand if all their clients tried to withdraw all their money ? Honest question
 

doster.zach

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Is Fractional Reserve Banking very different from what FTX has done ? Would banks stand if all their clients tried to withdraw all their money ? Honest question
Same system, except banks have the Federal Government to bail them out/ borrow money from if people were to withdraw.
 

EmotionEngine

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Andreas Thiel

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China isn't doing as well as you seem to think :)

They are about to be hit with a multi-trillion mortgage black hole. In summary, the Chinese govt. sanctioned a bunch of property development companies to build houses to sell to China's slowly growing, middle classes.
...

It doesn't take a genius to work out that if you have a house for sale and your neighbour has the identical house on sale for half the price you do, that your house will not sell.

...

Add to this that Xing has gone stark raving mad, has declared himself a deity, banned various words which may be used to mock him and is doggedly sticking to his "zero Covid" policy which is crippling the manufacturing and tech sectors because he is quite prepared to shut down a region with 20,000,000 people for the sake of one asymptomatic case of Covid.

...
He has not gone mad. He will have to do some unpopular things, but he knows that his win condition is putting enough pressure on the US economy that the US government is forced to tap out and return to a "cheap money" policy to stabilize its own economy. If that happens, China can stabilize its housing market in a true "winner takes all" battle. With the recent BRICS+ popularity, it seems several leaders seems to think the odds are at least ... okayish. The housing market investments are not as directly affected by the Covid lockdowns as the US economy.

Which money do you think will be redirected to Bitcoin? I assume you mean an increasing exodus of capital from Chinese households?

---

About FTX: Saw some people argue that the framing is unfortunate ... and a better way to look at things is that DeFi is doing okay while we saw another CeFi debacle. Might be interesting to check if / how people in the crypto space pivot now.
 

MJ DeMarco

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Hmm honestly I feel this is misleading.

Honestly I feel you missed the point.

If I buy the New Zealand currency, I'm betting on New Zealand. Same goes for any country.

If I buy Ethereum or Solana, I'm betting on those projects.

If I buy DOGE, what am I betting on?

Absolutely nothing, other than a false hope that the 2nd coming of Electric Car Jesus tweets about it.
 

Antifragile

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other than a false hope that the 2nd coming of Electric Car Jesus tweets about it.

We often post "LOL" but when do we actually laugh out loud? Well this did it for me. It's funny because it is true. :rofl:
 
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dafangcoach

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Honestly I feel you missed the point.

If I buy the New Zealand currency, I'm betting on New Zealand. Same goes for any country.

If I buy Ethereum or Solana, I'm betting on those projects.

If I buy DOGE, what am I betting on?

Absolutely nothing, other than a false hope that the 2nd coming of Electric Car Jesus tweets about it.
Hallelujah!
Praise the Musk!
 

dafangcoach

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Here's my 2 cents as a foreigner looking at US supremacy in the global economic market:

1. The 1971 move from gold-based to nothing-based US dollar essentially created an inflationary environment, where prices will 100% go up over time.
2. The parallel between US dollar and bitcoin is similar in that the "value" of the said currency (backed by the government of the currency as stated by MJ) is based on its usage (global trade 80 or 90% denomiated in the US dollar).
3.EAU and oil countries and Russia+China are moving into their own based oil currency, to separate their economic activity from the "tyranny" of the US dollar.
4. Trading in the short term, whether crypto or stocks, are more sentiment based rather than fundamental or economic based.
5. The US is weaponizing the US dollar as it deals with Russia and other opponents, including China, and this will lead to erosion of trust in the dollar as a global reserve currency.
6. When populism and extremism reigns, people go berserk, and that is usually a precursor to something more nefarious, and war is likely; and war in all situations, usually benefit no one, and harms the majority of the people it touches.

Peace on earth, as it is in heaven.
 

Black_Dragon43

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Absolutely nothing, other than a false hope that the 2nd coming of Electric Car Jesus tweets about it.
Haha :rofl:

With any currency, you’re really betting that more people will use it. In the case of fiat currencies, which are controlled by Stooges, you’re betting that the Stooges will remain strong and ensure that more people will want their currency over others.

Now DOGE, what could you possibly bet on, I guess that’s your question? DOGE only has ONE virtue vs the other cryptos…

It’s most like fiat… in other words it has really low transaction fees.

Stuff like BTC and ETH have historically had much higher transaction fees, but, the thinking goes, they compensate for that because, in addition they support DeFi, smart contracts and other such features.

So by betting on DOGE, you’re essentially saying that you just want a crypto that’s like fiat, and that that’s what the dominant crypto will be.

The Electric Car Jesus started supporting DOGE just when tx fees got sky high on the other cryptos. I paid like $100+ at one time just to move some $1000s worth of BTCs from one wallet to another for example.

Electric Car Jesus was just PISSED that he had to pay high fees on BTC transactions, which is why he stopped them, and told the world the it’s because BTC isn’t eco friendly. Well, DOGE is just as eco unfriendly as BTC, since they both use a proof of work protocol… just that it has much lower fees.

Is it such a bad argument to say that the best currency (and crypto) is the one that provides for the easiest, cheapest transactions?

 
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Speculatooor

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I believe Ethereum and a lot of other PoS coins have a big flaw in their security design and are destined to fail at some point.

When your security is denominated in your own coin as a stake, the value of that coin is directly corrolated to the security of the network.

This gives PoS coins a risk of a speculative attack to capture the network.

E.g. if ETH were to be manipulated to $1 -> you could be a validator for $32 (you need 32 ETH to be one). You literally put the security of the network in the hands of the markets.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Imagine the situation, where headlines say 'US GOVERNMENT ATTACKING ETHEREUM'
The value of the coin plummets because people panic.

You have 2 options:
1) hold your coins and possibly lose all your money when the protocol can potentially become worthless
2) sell your coins and potentially buy back lower if the protocol survives
--> people choose 2

Insert downward spiral in the price of the coin.

US GOV can thus attack a PoS protocol by attacking it, lowering its coin value, then buying extremely large (permanent) stake.

They can print as much US dollars as they want to buy the stake as well, since they own the USD money printer.

Mission succesfull, you now have captured the protocol. The deflationary tokenomics increase your influence even more.
One thought that just came to me.

This might be the reason ETH can't be unstaked for the foreseeable future.

You can see the mindset of the interest of ETH is more important than the stakers. Being unable to sell and keep your stake uncirculating (increased scarcity) is better for the price of ETH, so it is a good thing.

1668517181828.png
 
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View: https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1592503589561602048?s=20&t=_syAeQ3zNxoTwp6Hj38TlQ


The establishment wants controlled crypto. Had FTX won, they’d control through centralization. With FTX lost, they want control through regulation. At no point was the goal consumer protection. Because SBF walks free, while they plan to steal your money.
 
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Yep. SBF's aunt is Linda P. Fried and she is a member of the World Economic Forum, which is headed by Klaus Schwab the creepy old man Bond villain, who once said in the future "You'll own nothing and be happy." I'd avoid going too far into conspiracy theories though.
 
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GPM

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DOGE's market cap is $11.2 BILLION.

Tell me... does anyone read $11.2 BILLION in value here?

Even it's "official description" reads like a big FAT shitpile of nothing.

But yea, $11.2 billion.



View attachment 45933

This is why so many markets need a SHAKE OUT so this irrationality comes back to common sense.

Dogecoin is exactly that. An unlimited supply shit coin. Only outdone by the USD
 

Roli

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Which money do you think will be redirected to Bitcoin? I assume you mean an increasing exodus of capital from Chinese households?
Yes Chinese capital, but also general FUDders from around the world. Also there are many illegal BTC mining ops in China at the mo.

Let's see anyway, if it (BTC blowing up) doesn't happen in the first few months, or say first half of next year, I'll consider myself wrong.

Absolutely nothing, other than a false hope that the 2nd coming of Electric Car Jesus tweets about it.

Possibly the best moniker for Musky boy I've heard

But yes, the value of Doge is basically linked to ECJ's tweets. He is "hinting" that Doge will be used for Tesla and Twitter.


Also what you have to understand about the Doge community MJ, is that it has been a meme for a long time. Back in the day when it was worth $0.0000002 the community used to amuse each other making "moon memes" about how one day it would hit $1

The Doge saying is; "you've always gotta have a bit of Doge"

But yeah, you're not backing anything other than hope, enthusiasm and good will.

I personally always just keep a bit back, probably got about $30 worth now, occasionally I use it because of its low transaction fees. So transferring $1000 from one exchange to another can be expensive if you do it in BTC, not so much Doge.

Anyway, Doge to the moon!!
 

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Diamond hands all the way!
 
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As some know, I want to try making a bit of mone from cryptos.
Sure the path to welth via Cryptos isn’t nearly as safe as with a business.

Last Bullrun I sadly didn’t dare and wasn’t into cryptos. I bought 10$ of Siba, when Doge started, sold for 6000 some months
DOGE's market cap is $11.2 BILLION.

Tell me... does anyone read $11.2 BILLION in value here?

Even it's "official description" reads like a big FAT shitpile of nothing.

But yea, $11.2 billion.



View attachment 45933

This is why so many markets need a SHAKE OUT so this irrationality comes back to common sense.

do you really think, other token are better as they have a different name?
Yes Chinese capital, but also general FUDders from around the world. Also there are many illegal BTC mining ops in China at the mo.

Let's see anyway, if it (BTC blowing up) doesn't happen in the first few months, or say first half of next year, I'll consider myself wrong.



Possibly the best moniker for Musky boy I've heard

But yes, the value of Doge is basically linked to ECJ's tweets. He is "hinting" that Doge will be used for Tesla and Twitter.


Also what you have to understand about the Doge community MJ, is that it has been a meme for a long time. Back in the day when it was worth $0.0000002 the community used to amuse each other making "moon memes" about how one day it would hit $1

The Doge saying is; "you've always gotta have a bit of Doge"

But yeah, you're not backing anything other than hope, enthusiasm and good will.

I personally always just keep a bit back, probably got about $30 worth now, occasionally I use it because of its low transaction fees. So transferring $1000 from one exchange to another can be expensive if you do it in BTC, not so much Doge.

Anyway, Doge to the moon!!
Doge is psychology. If I buy it, I bet, that millions of people will buy it in the next bullrun in a timeframe of 2 days.
I don’t makethat bet now, as it will go down much more, and if its time, I will decide, if its likely , that the run of millions will happen.
 

MJ DeMarco

I followed the science; all I found was money.
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An unlimited supply shit coin. Only outdone by the USD

True, but the USD represents the US government, its military, its taxation, and its GDP.

What does DOGE represent? It's nothing but a fancy lottery ticket.
 

nitrousflame

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True, but the USD represents the US government, its military, its taxation, and its GDP.

What does DOGE represent? It's nothing but a fancy lottery ticket.
Ser, 1 doge = 1 doge
 
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Chosenone

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What do you think of getting Solana at today's prices?
If the market recovers, it should go 3X, at least.

Mathematically looks like a good bet.
 

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