Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[Ing]

From the point of view now, it seems , that the covid thing actually had a big negative influence on the crypto space. We are near ath much earlier than in the last cycle.
Could be the ETF thing, too.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1764874969878589569

View: https://twitter.com/intocryptoverse/status/1764874969878589569?t=qSypX39j4mzIHjl5uXQBhA&s=19

didn`t find that for 2017. you?

 

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[Ing]

The only question is do we sell now and buy the pullback and then ride it to the moon?

Or do we not risk there being no pullback and just ride it to the moon?

Your planning implements believing into repetation of history. The only way we can do.
So 2023 was so much different to 2019 (cost me some money because of that), that I don`t dare to sell now and wait for a pullback.
The other question is: where was really a pullback in 2020 other than the Covid swan pullback?

 

[Antifragile]

We are officially in the bubble … how do I know?

1. This thread is talking again daily
2. crypto pop song?!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1765005184286040532

 

[Timmy C]

We are officially in the bubble … how do I know?

1. This thread is talking again daily
2. crypto pop song?!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1765005184286040532

My brother texted me today and said "do you still own bitcoin?!"

People are starting to take notice again.

 

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[Bounce Back]

We are officially in the bubble … how do I know?

1. This thread is talking again daily
2. crypto pop song?!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1765005184286040532

That isn't my kind of music but wow if that wasn't better than 99% of things on the radio these days. This is the "skater boy" of this generation.

 

[Timmy C]

From the point of view now, it seems , that the covid thing actually had a big negative influence on the crypto space. We are near ath much earlier than in the last cycle.
Could be the ETF thing, too.

didn`t find that for 2017. you?

I wouldn't say it's a negative. Just different.

We are all just gambling now though.

 

[EvanOkanagan]

The ETF’s are opening the options for anyone to “move x% of my portfolio into Bitcoin”. The more they’re talked about the more this will happen on a steady climb. Even pension funds are now buying BTC.

Busting past 70k today.

 

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[amp0193]

We are officially in the bubble … how do I know?

Here's what I learned in 2017:

When Joe Cowboy is talking about "buying some o' them bitcoins" with the Ace Hardware cashier... it's a bubble.

 

[Bounce Back]

Here's what I learned in 2017:

When Joe Cowboy is talking about "buying some o' them bitcoins" with the Ace Hardware cashier... it's a bubble.

It is until it isn't. If you believe it will do what it set out to do then it stands one time there will be real mass adoption.

 

[Timmy C]

It is until it isn't. If you believe it will do what it set out to do then it stands one time there will be real mass adoption.

I dont think it's going to happen like that at all.

It'll just be another asset that people can exchange their cash for, but less volatile.

We are already seeing less volatility with the passage of time now.

 

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[Bounce Back]

I suppose I could have clarified yeah not exactly like that but they will know of it. The thing about bitcoin is everyone thinks they are not the "Joe Cowboy" in that scenario but everyone learns about it at some point.

 

[Antifragile]

The ETF’s are opening the options for anyone to “move x% of my portfolio into Bitcoin”. The more they’re talked about the more this will happen on a steady climb. Even pension funds are now buying BTC.

Busting past 70k today.

Mr. Oracle, can you consult your taro cards again?

Gamblers want to know if "buy the dip"



@Timmy C and I have immunity.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Gold is also near multi-year highs.

Bottomline, the average investor is seeking safe havens from reckless money printing politicians who continue to inflate and debase -- the debt toilet is now to 1T every 100 days.

 

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[socaldude]

You guys don’t use any indicators or technical analysis?

If you watch the correlations you wouldn’t get bit by the reversals or u-turns.

Bottomline, the average investor is seeking safe havens from reckless money printing politicians who continue to inflate and debase -- the debt toilet is now to 1T every 100 days.

Crude oil is telling.

At this point, any hard asset is worth more than the US dollar. I think that’s why a lot of assets haven’t followed traditional market behavior.

Big money is moving into money market funds, which is interesting.

 

[biophase]

The only question is do we sell now and buy the pullback and then ride it to the moon?

Or do we not risk there being no pullback and just ride it to the moon?

If you have to ask this question, I believe you should always hold.

You should do a calculation on if you sold everything today and you bought back at 50K and then bitcoin goes to 100K, how much more would you make if you made that trade.

Take the difference in profit and decide if that difference is worth the risk of you selling and being wrong. Are you OK with bitcoin going to 100K and you not being in it because you were waiting for the pullback for that extra percentage of profit?

 

[EvanOkanagan]

Mr. Oracle, can you consult your taro cards again?

Gamblers want to know if "buy the dip"

View attachment 54601

@Timmy C and I have immunity.

The day is still young...

But I fear my vision may have failed me. More importantly, I may have failed you all.

If so, I shall step down as Chief Prediction Officer. I'll nominate @Jadpapi to take my place, he seems to have a keen sense of technology and where this market is heading.

 

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[Antifragile]

The day is still young...

But I fear my vision may have failed me. More importantly, I may have failed you all.

If so, I shall step down as Chief Prediction Officer. I'll nominate @Jadpapi to take my place, he seems to have a keen sense of technology and where this market is heading.

Someone just dumped all that from a 2010 mining! Can you imagine this kind of payday?

Hence the price correction, otherwise your predictions would have held true!

Keep the crown.

 

[MitchC]

View attachment 54608


Someone just dumped all that from a 2010 mining! Can you imagine this kind of payday?

Hence the price correction, otherwise your predictions would have held true!

Keep the crown.

Insane

Probably mined that on a home pc back then not even a mining rig

 

[Ing]

View attachment 54608


Someone just dumped all that from a 2010 mining! Can you imagine this kind of payday?

Hence the price correction, otherwise your predictions would have held true!

Keep

Insane

Probably mined that on a home pc back then not even a mining rig

We mined about 50k on home pc than and decided it not to be worth as electricity was too expensive.
That pc would be a real big deal now!

 

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[Timmy C]

You guys don’t use any indicators or technical analysis?

If you watch the correlations you wouldn’t get bit by the reversals or u-turns.

TA is a joke, can't take it seriously.
It doesn't work.

 

[MitchC]

TA is a joke, can't take it seriously.
It doesn't work.

All the TA I need

Robert ₿reedlove on Instagram: "Wow, simply wow… by far the most proficient technical analysis I’ve ever seen…"

6,761 likes, 231 comments - breedlove_22February 2, 2024 on : "Wow, simply wow… by far the most proficient technical analysis I’ve ever seen…"

www.instagram.com

Some more too if that’s not enough

 

[Timmy C]

Back the truck up we are going higher!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1765106596584026265

View: https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1765106596584026265?t=zsLKMAETSIBaK2wcnV23zw&s=19

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1765129645069107304

View: https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1765129645069107304?t=K-r1Ne2eNvRhoCbavykkFA&s=19

 

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[amp0193]

It is until it isn't. If you believe it will do what it set out to do then it stands one time there will be real mass adoption.

I believe in the long term value of Bitcoin.

Merely talking about the bubble cycles in the short term.

One time, maybe so, but that one time is not this time.

 

[Subsonic]

I just sold yesterday because everyone is saying it's a good time to hold.

I made 200% gains and thats fine with me.
Hodl is not a strategy because it has no exit plan.

 

[Timmy C]

I just sold yesterday because everyone is saying it's a good time to hold.

I made 200% gains and thats fine with me.
Hodl is not a strategy because it has no exit plan.

Looks like a solid strategy to me...



But yeh, you will sell at some point, and if your happy with it that's all that matters.

 

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[Timmy C]

The USA is finally coming around!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1764987170652045606

View: https://twitter.com/ihatepulse/status/1764987170652045606?t=0hGazwmZWDElulpa0j4Tpw&s=19

 

[Roli]

Roughly doubled since this prediction.

Doubled again.

Took a wee bit longer than I originally predicted to hit 50k. I'm expecting 120-150 by the end of this bull run.

However we are at a 93.5% of all bitcoin being mined. I think things might change when we hit 98%, it depends on whether the miner fees decrease or not. Original predictions for 100% were at around 2040, but I think that seems like a stretch now.

Maybe because the last bitcoin will have a stupidly difficult algo attached to it, so the last one could take years to mine. By which point we'll be (in my humble opinion) at the million dollar mark.

All that being said, the effect on the regulated markets can't be ignored, in fact by that time they may well be the driving force. At the moment the miners still influence the price significantly; the 'halvings' demonstrate that.

But the derivatives market is huge and it's only going to get bigger, I believe they use the same, or possibly tweaked, option algorithm to work out the price of puts and calls. The leverage created from them are just too attractive for regular, non-risk adverse investors.

As the price increases, the potential swings get smaller - although of course you still have short-term big dips and rises - so the further away the Bitcoin price moves away from zero, the more attractive futures options become.

Anyway, I'm just trying to save as much as I can, because for all my predictions over the years (I've been in it since it was $450), I'm not a crypto millionaire. So I need to start taking my own damn advice.

 

[TinyTim]

I was checking google trend.

Searches for AI was ballooning.

Searches for crypto and bitcoin was only a fraction of what it had been in 2021.

But indeed this is just my speculation.

If institutional money went into etf then it does not show up in google searches proportionately.

Then that's bullish, right?

BTC hit a new high due to ETF demand, while retail is sidelined and about to buy the next top (as usual)

 

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[Timmy C]

Then that's bullish, right?

BTC hit a new high due to ETF demand, while retail is sidelined and about to buy the next top (as usual)

Don't be so sure.

I dont know about you but I didn't think anyone came close to thinking 69k was the top last cycle.

No one predicted a double top at all. Everyone thought the bull market was still on the entire time.

It played out very different to past cycles.

This will aswell.

 

[Kevin88660]

Then that's bullish, right?

BTC hit a new high due to ETF demand, while retail is sidelined and about to buy the next top (as usual)

Imo it just means that the retails are not coming back in masses.

Most got wiped out in 2022 and has not yet recovered financially, and most likely vowed not to touch crypto again.

I personally know two in which one of them decided to focus on business and never touch anything speculative again, and the other lost most of his chips in nft and while he is still in the game he has no more money to play.

There is a third guy I know who breaks even on crypto. He didn’t sell a winning coin at ATH and then it plunges into nothing again. He is now moving on to real estate instead.9

They are just not coming back.

A lot of crypto only quant fund loses everything in FTX. FTX used to offer lowest fee in the market. FTX hits a lot of people real hard in that space.

So for the institutional money who are longing btc now, who are the next buyers to push the price higher?

Maybe bigger institutional players and sovereign nations?