Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[Timmy C]

From the point of view now, it seems , that the covid thing actually had a big negative influence on the crypto space. We are near ath much earlier than in the last cycle.
Could be the ETF thing, too.

didn`t find that for 2017. you?

I wouldn't say it's a negative. Just different.

We are all just gambling now though.

 

Dislike ads? Become a Fastlane member: Subscribe today and surround yourself with winners and millionaire mentors, not those broke friends who only want to drink beer and play video games. :-)

[EvanOkanagan]

The ETF’s are opening the options for anyone to “move x% of my portfolio into Bitcoin”. The more they’re talked about the more this will happen on a steady climb. Even pension funds are now buying BTC.

Busting past 70k today.

 

[amp0193]

We are officially in the bubble … how do I know?

Here's what I learned in 2017:

When Joe Cowboy is talking about "buying some o' them bitcoins" with the Ace Hardware cashier... it's a bubble.

 

[Bounce Back]

Here's what I learned in 2017:

When Joe Cowboy is talking about "buying some o' them bitcoins" with the Ace Hardware cashier... it's a bubble.

It is until it isn't. If you believe it will do what it set out to do then it stands one time there will be real mass adoption.

 

[Timmy C]

It is until it isn't. If you believe it will do what it set out to do then it stands one time there will be real mass adoption.

I dont think it's going to happen like that at all.

It'll just be another asset that people can exchange their cash for, but less volatile.

We are already seeing less volatility with the passage of time now.

 

[Bounce Back]

I suppose I could have clarified yeah not exactly like that but they will know of it. The thing about bitcoin is everyone thinks they are not the "Joe Cowboy" in that scenario but everyone learns about it at some point.

 

Dislike ads? Become a Fastlane member: Subscribe today and surround yourself with winners and millionaire mentors, not those broke friends who only want to drink beer and play video games. :-)

[Antifragile]

The ETF’s are opening the options for anyone to “move x% of my portfolio into Bitcoin”. The more they’re talked about the more this will happen on a steady climb. Even pension funds are now buying BTC.

Busting past 70k today.

Mr. Oracle, can you consult your taro cards again?

Gamblers want to know if "buy the dip"



@Timmy C and I have immunity.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Gold is also near multi-year highs.

Bottomline, the average investor is seeking safe havens from reckless money printing politicians who continue to inflate and debase -- the debt toilet is now to 1T every 100 days.

 

[CosmicMind]

You guys don’t use any indicators or technical analysis?

If you watch the correlations you wouldn’t get bit by the reversals or u-turns.

Bottomline, the average investor is seeking safe havens from reckless money printing politicians who continue to inflate and debase -- the debt toilet is now to 1T every 100 days.

Crude oil is telling.

At this point, any hard asset is worth more than the US dollar. I think that’s why a lot of assets haven’t followed traditional market behavior.

Big money is moving into money market funds, which is interesting.

 

[biophase]

The only question is do we sell now and buy the pullback and then ride it to the moon?

Or do we not risk there being no pullback and just ride it to the moon?

If you have to ask this question, I believe you should always hold.

You should do a calculation on if you sold everything today and you bought back at 50K and then bitcoin goes to 100K, how much more would you make if you made that trade.

Take the difference in profit and decide if that difference is worth the risk of you selling and being wrong. Are you OK with bitcoin going to 100K and you not being in it because you were waiting for the pullback for that extra percentage of profit?

 

[EvanOkanagan]

Mr. Oracle, can you consult your taro cards again?

Gamblers want to know if "buy the dip"

View attachment 54601

@Timmy C and I have immunity.

The day is still young...

But I fear my vision may have failed me. More importantly, I may have failed you all.

If so, I shall step down as Chief Prediction Officer. I'll nominate @Jadpapi to take my place, he seems to have a keen sense of technology and where this market is heading.

 

Dislike ads? Become a Fastlane member: Subscribe today and surround yourself with winners and millionaire mentors, not those broke friends who only want to drink beer and play video games. :-)

[Antifragile]

The day is still young...

But I fear my vision may have failed me. More importantly, I may have failed you all.

If so, I shall step down as Chief Prediction Officer. I'll nominate @Jadpapi to take my place, he seems to have a keen sense of technology and where this market is heading.

Someone just dumped all that from a 2010 mining! Can you imagine this kind of payday?

Hence the price correction, otherwise your predictions would have held true!

Keep the crown.

 

[MitchC]

View attachment 54608


Someone just dumped all that from a 2010 mining! Can you imagine this kind of payday?

Hence the price correction, otherwise your predictions would have held true!

Keep the crown.

Insane

Probably mined that on a home pc back then not even a mining rig

 

[Ing]

View attachment 54608


Someone just dumped all that from a 2010 mining! Can you imagine this kind of payday?

Hence the price correction, otherwise your predictions would have held true!

Keep

Insane

Probably mined that on a home pc back then not even a mining rig

We mined about 50k on home pc than and decided it not to be worth as electricity was too expensive.
That pc would be a real big deal now!

 

[Timmy C]

You guys don’t use any indicators or technical analysis?

If you watch the correlations you wouldn’t get bit by the reversals or u-turns.

TA is a joke, can't take it seriously.
It doesn't work.

 

[MitchC]

TA is a joke, can't take it seriously.
It doesn't work.

All the TA I need

Robert ₿reedlove on Instagram: "Wow, simply wow… by far the most proficient technical analysis I’ve ever seen…"

8,789 likes, 302 comments - breedlove_22 on February 2, 2024: "Wow, simply wow… by far the most proficient technical analysis I’ve ever seen…".

www.instagram.com

Some more too if that’s not enough

 

Dislike ads? Become a Fastlane member: Subscribe today and surround yourself with winners and millionaire mentors, not those broke friends who only want to drink beer and play video games. :-)

[Timmy C]

Back the truck up we are going higher!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765106596584026265

View: https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1765106596584026265?t=zsLKMAETSIBaK2wcnV23zw&s=19

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765129645069107304

View: https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1765129645069107304?t=K-r1Ne2eNvRhoCbavykkFA&s=19

 

[amp0193]

It is until it isn't. If you believe it will do what it set out to do then it stands one time there will be real mass adoption.

I believe in the long term value of Bitcoin.

Merely talking about the bubble cycles in the short term.

One time, maybe so, but that one time is not this time.

 

[Subsonic]

I just sold yesterday because everyone is saying it's a good time to hold.

I made 200% gains and thats fine with me.
Hodl is not a strategy because it has no exit plan.

 

[Timmy C]

I just sold yesterday because everyone is saying it's a good time to hold.

I made 200% gains and thats fine with me.
Hodl is not a strategy because it has no exit plan.

Looks like a solid strategy to me...



But yeh, you will sell at some point, and if your happy with it that's all that matters.

 

[Timmy C]

The USA is finally coming around!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1764987170652045606

View: https://twitter.com/ihatepulse/status/1764987170652045606?t=0hGazwmZWDElulpa0j4Tpw&s=19

 

Dislike ads? Become a Fastlane member: Subscribe today and surround yourself with winners and millionaire mentors, not those broke friends who only want to drink beer and play video games. :-)

[Roli]

Roughly doubled since this prediction.

Doubled again.

Took a wee bit longer than I originally predicted to hit 50k. I'm expecting 120-150 by the end of this bull run.

However we are at a 93.5% of all bitcoin being mined. I think things might change when we hit 98%, it depends on whether the miner fees decrease or not. Original predictions for 100% were at around 2040, but I think that seems like a stretch now.

Maybe because the last bitcoin will have a stupidly difficult algo attached to it, so the last one could take years to mine. By which point we'll be (in my humble opinion) at the million dollar mark.

All that being said, the effect on the regulated markets can't be ignored, in fact by that time they may well be the driving force. At the moment the miners still influence the price significantly; the 'halvings' demonstrate that.

But the derivatives market is huge and it's only going to get bigger, I believe they use the same, or possibly tweaked, option algorithm to work out the price of puts and calls. The leverage created from them are just too attractive for regular, non-risk adverse investors.

As the price increases, the potential swings get smaller - although of course you still have short-term big dips and rises - so the further away the Bitcoin price moves away from zero, the more attractive futures options become.

Anyway, I'm just trying to save as much as I can, because for all my predictions over the years (I've been in it since it was $450), I'm not a crypto millionaire. So I need to start taking my own damn advice.

 

[TinyTim]

I was checking google trend.

Searches for AI was ballooning.

Searches for crypto and bitcoin was only a fraction of what it had been in 2021.

But indeed this is just my speculation.

If institutional money went into etf then it does not show up in google searches proportionately.

Then that's bullish, right?

BTC hit a new high due to ETF demand, while retail is sidelined and about to buy the next top (as usual)

 

[Timmy C]

Then that's bullish, right?

BTC hit a new high due to ETF demand, while retail is sidelined and about to buy the next top (as usual)

Don't be so sure.

I dont know about you but I didn't think anyone came close to thinking 69k was the top last cycle.

No one predicted a double top at all. Everyone thought the bull market was still on the entire time.

It played out very different to past cycles.

This will aswell.

 

[Kevin88660]

Then that's bullish, right?

BTC hit a new high due to ETF demand, while retail is sidelined and about to buy the next top (as usual)

Imo it just means that the retails are not coming back in masses.

Most got wiped out in 2022 and has not yet recovered financially, and most likely vowed not to touch crypto again.

I personally know two in which one of them decided to focus on business and never touch anything speculative again, and the other lost most of his chips in nft and while he is still in the game he has no more money to play.

There is a third guy I know who breaks even on crypto. He didn’t sell a winning coin at ATH and then it plunges into nothing again. He is now moving on to real estate instead.9

They are just not coming back.

A lot of crypto only quant fund loses everything in FTX. FTX used to offer lowest fee in the market. FTX hits a lot of people real hard in that space.

So for the institutional money who are longing btc now, who are the next buyers to push the price higher?

Maybe bigger institutional players and sovereign nations?

 

[AceVentures]

Most got wiped out in 2022 and has not yet recovered financially, and most likely vowed not to touch crypto again.

Every bear market has "wiped out" countless people who bought tops and sold bottoms.

But markets have continued to cycle.

Your position sounds reasonable, but it's not aligned with historical data.

Your three friends perhaps won't buy, but countless others will encounter their first meme coin rally this time.

Countless others will discover what a smart contract is.

And countless others still will experiment with the role of BTC in a fiat debt-spiral.

Most of them will remain in indecision.

It's all a scam, unless they time the market of course.

Until the markets start moving 20%+ in a day.

For weeks.

And when they've had enough punishment, gouging their eyes in disbelief as people make money on trump and frog coins while their timely trades get liquidated, then they'll buy the next top.

And end up like your friends from last cycle.

And we'll still be here in this thread talking shit, debating when the proper time is to buy and sell.

 

Dislike ads? Become a Fastlane member: Subscribe today and surround yourself with winners and millionaire mentors, not those broke friends who only want to drink beer and play video games. :-)

[Kevin88660]

Every bear market has "wiped out" countless people who bought tops and sold bottoms.

But markets have continued to cycle.

Your position sounds reasonable, but it's not aligned with historical data.

Your three friends perhaps won't buy, but countless others will encounter their first meme coin rally this time.

Countless others will discover what a smart contract is.

And countless others still will experiment with the role of BTC in a fiat debt-spiral.

Most of them will remain in indecision.

It's all a scam, unless they time the market of course.

Until the markets start moving 20%+ in a day.

For weeks.

And when they've had enough punishment, gouging their eyes in disbelief as people make money on trump and frog coins while their timely trades get liquidated, then they'll buy the next top.

And end up like your friends from last cycle.

And we'll still be here in this thread talking shit, debating when the proper time is to buy and sell.

This bull cycle is very quiet. I feel that it is even quieter than the 2017 cycle when btc hit 20k for the first time, when ripple ceo was richer than jeff bezos for a few days.

The price no doubt is high. But the buzz to price ratio is low.

Maybe it is evolving into an institutional assets.

 

[Timmy C]

The ten Bitcoin ETFs did $10b in volume yesterday, smashing the record set last Wednesday.

Net inflows of bitcoins purchased by ETFs was over $10k.

Also based on past records, once Bitcoin breaks its previous all-time high, 3 out of the 4 times it has doubled in 18 days or less.

I think we go next leg up.

 

[JordanK]

Bought the top of Eth two years ago with a few thousand dollars. About to break even then liquidate my position. Will pump the money back into my business/real estate. Something I understand a lot more and can get better returns at. Interesting learning experience and I'm happy I was able to hold for that length of time as the funds involved were low. I know so many people who liquidated massive losses because they were requiring the money to survive or for major life events and panicked.

 

[Antifragile]

His man-bun .

View attachment f7e7da18b48778c409840dd4af183c0da7e57586.mov