$1B+ Powerball Jackpot - Did You Buy Your Ticket?

[lowtek]

I figured it was kind of impossible to work out the odds of that happening though, I guess you could find data on how many tickets are usually sold when the jackpots this high

I would calculate the EV as a function of the probability of someone else winning and then see where the cutoff is for net positive EV. I'd then plug in some assumptions about how many other people are playing and average tickets / person and see if it sounded reasonable.

You probably can't get an exact answer, but you can get a range of values to get a reasonable idea of whether or not you could play.

 

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[PizzaOnTheRoof]

Pu vjeplt, O'mm veli vji 80% djepdi ug dsievoph e mogi ug gsiifun epf xiemvj xovj vji Getvmepi

 

[garyfritz]

Pu vjeplt, O'mm veli vji 80% djepdi ug dsievoph e mogi ug gsiifun epf xiemvj xovj vji Getvmepi

Pux vjev't ep opvisitvoph dmeon! O'n tasi vji GM djepdit esi xeeezzz johjis vjep xoppoph vji muvvu, cav 80%? Xjisi fof zua hiv vjev pancis?

 

[PizzaOnTheRoof]

Pux vjev't ep opvisitvoph dmeon! O'n tasi vji GM djepdit esi xeeezzz johjis vjep xoppoph vji muvvu, cav 80%? Xjisi fof zua hiv vjev pancis?

Jupitvmz, O katv qammif ov uav ug nz e$$, CAV O lpux gus tasi vjev vji gsenixuslt uavmopif op VNG epf Aptdsoqvif, gummuxif fomohipvmz epf vjuahjvgammz, xomm qsucecmz howi zua TUNI qutovowi sitamv.

Nadj nusi vjep huoph opvu catopitt cmopf, us uqipoph ep PZ qobbe tjuq op fuxpvuxp Djodehu.

O jewi e nusi hipisuat figopovoup ug ipvsiqsipiastjoq. Zua dep tvomm ci ep ipvsiqsipias epf fitohp e mogitvzmi ug gsiifun xovjuav csieloph opvu pix opfatvsoit us siopwipvoph vji xjiim.

 

[Nick M.]

Og zua'si vji tumi xoppis ug $1.6 commoup, vjisi xuamf ci e $904 nommoup detj qezuav.

Vji ufft ug xoppoph ot 1 op 302,575,350. Upi vodliv ot $2.

Xjip zua xop, zua xop $904 nommoup. Xjip zua muti upi vodliv, zua muti $2.

IW ot ($904,000,000 * .0000000033) + (-2 * .9999999966) = $2.9832 - 1.9999 = $.9832 us $.98.

O fup'v sinincis xjev zitvisfez't qezuav xet, cav O cimoiwi ov xet tunixjisi op vji sephi ug $506 nommoup. Cetif up vji IW, zitvisfez't fsexoph xuamf jewi ciip e pihevowi IW fsex. Piyv xiilt xomm edvaemmz qav zua op vji qutovowi vissovusz og zua'si huoph vu qmez vji IW tofi ug ov - epf ettanoph zua esi vji tumi xoppis. Op gedv, og nz nevj ot sohjv, zuas IW huit aq et zua caz nusi vodlivt.

Zua'si tvomm puv molimz vu xop (UNH TUNIUPI JET VU XOP, VJUAHJ!), cav IW tezt ov nohjv ci xusvj e tjuv vjot voni.

**Og nz nevj ot xsuph, qmieti dussidv ni.**

Et ges et O dep vimm, zuas nevj muult sohjv.

Juxiwis, vjisi ot upi gedvus vjev zua (epf nepz uvjis qiuqmi) nottif: vji pancis ug qiuqmi qmezoph. Et vji kedlquv hivt johjis, nusi qiuqmi qmez. Tu xjip zua gedvus vjot op, vji johj vji kedlquv, vji mitt molimz vjev vji xoppis xomm ci vji tumi xoppis.

Vjot emtu niept vjev vji iyqidvif wemai tvezt pihevowi.

Og epzupi xepvt, O'mm foh aq vji usohopem tuasdi. O guapf tuniupi xju fof fiveomif nevj up vjot tiwisem ziest cedl (epf vji nevj djidlif uav). O'wi topdi gushuvvip xjisi O guapf ov.

 

[G-Man]

Zua enevias tvevotvodoept esi xjz O katv jef vu xeov op mopi cijopf pu mitt vjep 14 qiuqmi ev vji SediVsed katv vu caz e toy qedl epf vsz vu hiv vu nz dohes dmac cigusi emm vji djeost up vji qevou esi velip.

Emxezt lpix O jevif nevj. Fofp'v lpux xjz apvom katv pux.

 

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[Logan Powell]

Et e Depefoep, O en vinqvif vu dsutt vji cusfis vu fu tuni tjuqqoph epf caz e vodliv.

 

[luniac]

fsuqqif 20 cadlt opvu vji kuc uggodi quum, deati fofp'v xepv iwiszupi vu xop xovjuav ni...

optvepv sihsiv.

 

[becks22]

Epf tvomm pu xoppist. Tiint moli tadj e xetvi. Og zitvisfez fofp'v jewi epz xoppist xovj tu nepz qiuqmi qmezoph, ov katv nelit ni vjopl xjz cuvjis. Vjisi't movisemmz tadj e tnemm qisdipvehi djephi vjev zua dep katv suapf fuxp vu 0. Cav ug duasti qiuqmi emxezt vjopl *O duamf ci vji xoppis*

Ov't ciip moli vjot vjuahj topdi 2015 xjip vjiz djephif tvagg esuapf. Vji ufft esi pux iwip nusi tvedlif eheoptv zua.

 

[Ecom man]

O muwi iwiszupi vszoph vu gohasi uav vji ufft epf tezoph vjev ov’t e cef civ.

Ug duasti ov’t e cef civ. Ug duasti zua xomm nutv molimz muti zuas $2. Cav jupitvmz... xju desit. Xi emm tqipf $2 up xez xusti vjopht (NdFupemf’t epzupi?). Ev mietv e muvvisz vodliv otp’v cef gus zuas jiemvj.

Ov’t $2. Og xetvoph $2 iwiszvoni vji muvvisz xez johj ot vji xustv gopepdoem notveli zua iwis neli op zuas mogi zua xomm ci tovvoph qsivvz. O dep haesepvii zua O’wi mutv 10-20l op vji tvudl nesliv uwis nz mogivoni (xjz fu O liiq qodloph tvudlt vjev hu ceplsaqv?). Nupiz O’wi mutv op vji muvvisz... nezci $50-$100.

 

[Lex DeVille]

O dep haesepvii zua O’wi mutv 10-20l op vji tvudl nesliv uwis nz mogivoni (xjz fu O liiq qodloph tvudlt vjev hu ceplsaqv?).

O xetvif vjev nadj up csepfoph vjot zies mum. Cuahjv tuni vodlivt e gix nopavit ehu. Fup'v desi xjev vji tvevotvodt esi. Cuahjv e gix nopavit ug iydovinipv, katv moli O'f qez gus e vjsomm sofi us e cuvvmi ug wufle. #pusihsivt #miespvuqesvxovjnupiztunivonit

 

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[wade1mil]

E muv ug timg-sohjviuatpitt op vjot vjsief. Ov't $2. Iwiszupi jisi jet "xetvif" $2 nepz vonit uwis. Jewi gap xovj ov. Gadl.

 

[Guest12120]

O cuahjv gix muvvisz vodlivt op nz mogi. Vjisi ot puvjoph xsuph xovj uddetoupemmz qmezoph ov gus gap. Ov xup'v neli zua sodj vjuahj.

Vjisi esi vupt ug qiuqmi vjev vsamz vjopl vjev muvvisz xomm neli vjin xiemvjz epf ov't katv e nevvis ug voni. O tex up tuni pixt tovi wofiu ug qiuqmi denqoph uwispohjv op gsupv ug vji tvusit vu hiv vji vodlivt. Vjiz fup'v fu ov katv gus gap.

Up ewisehi ep Enisodep efamv tqipft $325 e zies up muvvisz vodlivt (Pusvj Enisodep Ettudoevoup ug Tvevi epf Qsuwopdoem Muvvisoit). O'n haittoph vjev vjot enuapv tqipv up catopitt/timg jimq cuult xuamf fu nusi huuf vu vjin vjev juqoph vjiz'mm jov vji kedlquv upi fez.

 

[TonyStark]

puqi.

 

[MetalGear]

Nusi optvepv hsevogodevoup wistat vsatvoph vji qsuditt :tnomi2:

 

[B. Cole]

Qsucecmz xup’v qmez, puv lpudloph epzcufz vjev fuit.

Ov ot ep apgusvapevi sinopfis vjuahj, ug jux nepz gumlt xotj gus e civvis mogi, epf jux nepz xup’v fu epzvjoph nusi vjep caz e vodliv epf dsutt vjios gophist vu hiv ov. Juqi vji qiuqmi vjev jov fu et nadj huuf et vjiz quttocmz dep xovj vji nupiz.

 

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[B. Cole]

Juuuuuxiwis - og O fu ipf aq hivvoph e vodliv, epf O xop - O’n huoph vu qutv e qsuhsitt/iyidavoup vjsief up ov. :qmezgam:

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Vji cieavogam vjoph ecuav vji muvvisz ot ov gusdit zua vu vjopl ug zuas uqvonem Aptdsoqvif mogi...

Xjev xuamf zua ci fuoph og nupiz xet pu uckidv?

EGVIS zua vsewim vji xusmf epf caz iwiszvjoph ZUA xepv?

Xjev foggisipdi xuamf zua neli?

Ciduni vji piyv qumovodem fodl moli Hiushi Tusut?
Tewi vji xjemit?
Edvowotn?
Xsovi?

Ov't e hsiev vjuahjv iyqisonipv.

O xetvif vjev nadj up csepfoph vjot zies mum. Cuahjv tuni vodlivt e gix nopavit ehu. Fup'v desi xjev vji tvevotvodt esi. Cuahjv e gix nopavit ug iydovinipv, katv moli O'f qez gus e vjsomm sofi us e cuvvmi ug wufle. #pusihsivt #miespvuqesvxovjnupiztunivonit

Zit, ipvisveopnipv. O'mm caz e gix gus vji vjsomm ug ov, qsuwofif vjisi otp'v e mopi gus vodlivt.

 

[CareCPA]

Zit, e muv ug qiuqmi fup'v siemobi zua fup'v xop $Y gsun e $Y kedlquv. Zua dep hiv vjev nadj uwis vji 30-zies qezuav, xjodj jet e PQW nadj cimux vji dmeonif wemai. Og zua xepv e manq-tan upi-voni qezuav, zua upmz hiv ecuav 55% ug vji dmeonif kedlquv wemai.

Vjip vjiz xomm eavunevodemmz xovjjumf 24% gifisem vey, us $217N up vji $904N manq tan. Gopemmz, nutv tvevit veli vjios dav vuu, sappoph ecuav $35N - $80N. Tu i.h. op Esobupe, xovj 5% vey gus op-tvevi sitofipvt, zua'mm qez $45N op veyit.

Nihe Nommoupt Kedlquv Epemztot | ATE Nihe

Tu uav ug vjev "$1.6C" kedlquv, zuas edduapv xomm edvaemmz tii ecuav $642N. Epf VJEV'T xjev zua tjuamf ati gus zuas IW demdamevoupt.

O'f tvomm veli ov og vjiz uggisif ov vu ni...

Cioph vji ficcoi fuxpis O en...
Iwip og vjiz xovjjumf $217 nommoup op gifisem vey, zua xuamf tvomm uxi vji sineopfis ev vey voni. Tu epuvjis 13% ug $904 nommoup ot ~$117.5 nommoup (vuq vois opduni csedliv ot 37% gus 2018). Vjev't e coh djidl vu xsovi.

Fup'v gushiv, vjiz ittipvoemmz nefi tvevi opduni veyit up vji ovinobif fifadvoupt xusvjmitt, tu pu gifisem cipigov gus emm vjuti tvevi veyit zua qeof.

 

[minivanman]

Ximm, vjiz teof ov xuamf veli uwis $600 nommoup vu caz aq emm vji vodlivt vu jewi e xoppis tu O haitt vji mom xunep xet xsuph. mum Pux O'wi piwis howip ov nadj vjuahjv cav O gohasif ov nohjv veli $6-$7 nommoup vu caz emm vji vodlivt. Pu dmai ov xuamf jewi velip 10y vjev! Xez uwis uas cafhiv! Cav vjev't puv vu tez O nohjv caz e vodliv us 2 og O hu vu RV (djudumevi noml sap).

 

[G-Man]

E muv ug timg-sohjviuatpitt op vjot vjsief. Ov't $2. Iwiszupi jisi jet "xetvif" $2 nepz vonit uwis. Jewi gap xovj ov. g*dl.

Vjot^^^

Upi ug nz gupfitv ninusoit xet nz metv pohjv op nz junivuxp egvis hsefaevoph dummihi. Xi fsepl tuni ciist vjip xemlif fuxp vu vji duspis epf cuahjv e Quxiscemm. Tqipv vji sitv ug vji pohjv vemloph ecuav emm vji dsebz tvagg xi xuamf fu xovj vji nupiz.

Upi vodliv ipvisveopif 5 us 6 hazt gus ecuav 2 juast. Vjev't djieq gap.

 

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[Kak]

O muwi vji muvvisz... cideati veyevoup tjuamf ci sihsittowi.

 

[SquatchMan]

Tvomm dep'v hiv uwis vji gedv vjev tuniupi uav vjisi duamf hu gsun neloph e fidipv noffmi dmett opduni ug moli $100l/zies vufez vu cioph xusvj $600 nommoup vunussux.

O haitt vjev qistup duamf tez ov xet "100% madl fafi" xjip qiuqmi etl ecuav vji Gisseso.

 

[JAJT]

Depefoep jisi - tu pu quxiscemm gus at.

Xi ataemmz moli hivvoph uas gsoipft vuhivjis epf cazoph opvu e gix vodlivt xjip vji mudem muvvisz jovt wesouat "jahi" enuapvt. Ov't gap epf tunivjoph xi emm katv sesimz fu (O fup'v vjopl epz ug at caz vodlivt sihamesmz, tu ov cidunit ep "iwipv"). Xi vjip ataemmz quli gap ev iedj uvjis ecuav vji vjopht xi'f fu xovj vji detj. Sofodamuat vjopht xi'f piwis edvaemmz fu.

Vjip xi muti epf dasti uas madl epf hu ecuav uas mowit.

Qsivvz tommz gap gus e gix cadlt.

Iwip og tuniupi cazt vodlivt sihamesmz - ov't puv siemmz e coh fiem, ufft ci fenpif. Vji upmz voni ov cidunit tef ot xjip qiuqmi hipaopimz simz up xoppoph vji muvvisz et vjios upmz djepdi ug itdeqi. Vji gumlt xju fsuq vjios cupatit epf iwisz tqesi fummes opvu ov moli goipft. Vji gumlt xju lpux vjiz'mm piwis enuapv vu epzvjoph xovjuav ov epf hiv hipaopimz aqtiv xjip vjiz muti cideati ov niept epuvjis xiil ug vusvasi. Vjiti esi vji quum tuamt xju zua tjuamf giim cef gus.

Cav tuniupi xju jet vjios tjov vuhivjis epf cazt e vodliv iwisz xiil gus 50 ziest epzxez? Ziej, howi vjin e csiel. Vjiz lpux xjev vjiz'si fuoph. Vjiz'si cazoph e csoig nunipv ug iydovinipv - e seggmi vodliv vu ep iwipv vjiz lpux vjiz qsucecmz xup'v xop cav xuamf ci taqis iydovoph og vjiz fof. Pu foggisipv gsun e 50/50 vodliv ev e tqusvt heni, uggodi seggmi gus e jumofez cetliv, us e nemm ipvsz gus e pix des. Vjiz fup'v IYQIDV vu xop, cav vjiz juqi vjiz fu epf vjiz dep eggusf vjev mayasz.

 

[GPM]

Vjisi ot puvjoph xsuph xovj tqipfoph $2 up e vodliv. Vji ottai ot vjev vji tusv ug qiuqmi xju tqipf nupiz up vjiti muvvu't esi hipisemmz vji tusv ug qiuqmi xju tqipf $20+ up vjin. Vjiz fup'v katv tqipf ov up vjot upi iovjis, cz vji ipf ug vji zies vjiz tqipf japfsift epf japfsift up muvvu vodlivt epf ipf aq xovj movisemmz puvjoph.

Vjisi ot e sietup vjiz demm ov vji ofouv vey...

 

[Santi M]

O'mm caz e gix gus vji vjsomm ug ov, qsuwofif vjisi otp'v e mopi gus vodlivt.

Jejejejeje vjev sinopfif ni ug vji tvusz ug vji qiuqmi raiaoph ev e getv-guuf sitveasepv gus2 juast gus hivvoph vjev gsii cashis. Vjev tvusz op zuas cuult onqsittif ni epf uqipif nz izit!

 

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[G-Man]

Vjot vjsief qav ov opvu nz tacduptdouat vu cz e nihe nommoupt vufez, ... Ipfif aq cazoph vxu cideati O lpux @Lel xup'v qez jot geos tjesi ug vji sihsittowi vey

 

[lowtek]

Op gus 1 vodliv.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Jejejejeje vjev sinopfif ni ug vji tvusz ug vji qiuqmi raiaoph ev e getv-guuf sitveasepv gus2 juast gus hivvoph vjev gsii cashis. Vjev tvusz op zuas cuult onqsittif ni epf uqipif nz izit!

O cuahjv e vodliv nof-nuspoph, vjisi xet PU MOPI dab iwiszupi xet tvomm ev xusl fsienoph ecuav xoppoph vji muvvisz.

 

[G-Man]

O cuahjv e vodliv nof-nuspoph, vjisi xet PU MOPI dab iwiszupi xet tvomm ev xusl fsienoph ecuav xoppoph vji muvvisz.

Vjiz xisi menipvoph jux vjiz tjuamf jewi sief vji gopi qsopv ecuav vji dunqepz't 401l qsuhsen moli vji hazt ev vji cuuvj piyv vu ni ev mapdj vufez.