$1B+ Powerball Jackpot - Did You Buy Your Ticket?

[biggeemac]

You know, with that kind of money, you could spend the rest of your life funding and overseeing a pretty meaningful cause......like curing cancer for example. I promise I would bitch slap any doctor or scientist under my direction who thought that this would be a for-profit venture. It would be my gift to the world. AND I would STILL live very comfortable.

 

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[Buickestate]

I'd personally have fun with this part

Oh! Do tell

 

[Bouncing Soul]

You know, with that kind of money, you could spend the rest of your life funding and overseeing a pretty meaningful cause......like curing cancer for example. I promise I would bitch slap any doctor or scientist under my direction who thought that this would be a for-profit venture. It would be my gift to the world. AND I would STILL live very comfortable.

That's what Jon Huntsman Sr did. He says in his book he pushed hard in business long after the money had ceased to matter to fund his cancer institute.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Huntsman,_Sr.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Well I bought a ticket and set myself up for an epic disaster. My ticket is for Saturday -- I missed the deadline for the $1.5B drawing tonight.

 

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[Buickestate]

Well I bought a ticket and set myself up for an epic disaster. My ticket is for Saturday -- I missed the deadline for the $1.5B drawing tonight.

Don't worry the odds are high that it will not be won tonight.......

 

[sWALK90]

Just bought mine...i had some change laying around...

 

[mws87]

Well I bought a ticket and set myself up for an epic disaster. My ticket is for Saturday -- I missed the deadline for the $1.5B drawing tonight.

Did you buy it too late? Damn, guess you'll have to settle for a measly few million now

 

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[SBS.95]

Not participating in the Powerball is one of those meaningless things that I have way too much pride in. I've never played once.

The department i work in all threw in 2 dollars into the pot so I just HAD to throw in 2 dollars.

I'd be so pissed if after all the fastlane work ive been doing while the rest of them watch world star and netflix shows and movies, they end up winning the damn powerball and im the only one left in the department LOL!!! I think that would cross the line of me not giving a crap, i would be ENVIOUS...

We used to have a pool like that at one of my jobs. I was always the no-fun guy. Whenever all of the employees pooled together I remember stopping at Mcdonalds or a gas station and making some stupid purchase. My logic was that at least I was getting something back in exchange for my $2.

It's funny how peer pressure and resentment for a job can force you into playing "just so the other bastards don't win." Jobs suck.

 

[Bellini]

Won by 3 winners!

Those in California, Florida, and Tennessee check your tickets!

(@Vigilante )

 

[Vigilante]

Won by 3 winners!

Those in California, Florida, and Tennessee check your tickets!

(@Vigilante )

Up near Orlando.

 

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[Kingmaker]

A bakery in Toronto made $54,000 thanks to the Powerball

"I thought you guys might enjoy this. A bakery in Toronto jumped on the hype of the Powerball last week and purchased 3000 tickets. They then offered them out for free to anyone buying $20 worth of food from their store, making them a quick $54,000.

I'm not so sure on the full details of this story (how many tickets per customer etc) but I thought it should be shared. A great opportunity seized by the owners of the bakery and a fine example of entrepreneurship.

Update: Check out this awesome time lapse of the line outside the bakery: https://twitter.com/CBCNews/status/687340390731497473"

People occupying the Sidewalk (literally) in the timelapse while business gets a profit, lol.

 

[hellolin]

A bakery in Toronto made $54,000 thanks to the Powerball

"I thought you guys might enjoy this. A bakery in Toronto jumped on the hype of the Powerball last week and purchased 3000 tickets. They then offered them out for free to anyone buying $20 worth of food from their store, making them a quick $54,000.

I'm not so sure on the full details of this story (how many tickets per customer etc) but I thought it should be shared. A great opportunity seized by the owners of the bakery and a fine example of entrepreneurship.

Update: Check out this awesome time lapse of the line outside the bakery: https://twitter.com/CBCNews/status/687340390731497473"

People occupying the Sidewalk (literally) in the timelapse while business gets a profit, lol.

This is the whole concept behind the lottery, the state do pay out in the end, but after taxes ends up with more money. Truly it's a tax on stupid people.

 

[theag]

I won. Guess I won't be around that much anymore. See you at my playboy mansion!

 

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[AllenCrawley]

Two men create lotto pool and purchased $146,000 in Powerball tickets. Win about $15,000.

"I mean, we would have loved to win," he said. "We were at 4,000-to-1 chance to win. It was a huge long shot, but everybody in the group had so much excitement and we would do it again. A lot of people said it was the best time they had in their life, literally."

http://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/hot-topics/74674612-story

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Looks like this weekend's jackpot has reached over $1 billion, anyone PLAYING?

Usually when the jackpot is this high, the expected value EV goes positive.

Mega Millions jackpot soars to record $1.6 billion after no winners in Friday’s drawing

 

[Guest12120]

Odds of winning Mega Millions or Powerball jackpot are roughly 300,000,000:1.

Imagine Solo cups lined up back to back along the highway from Miami to Seattle and back to Miami and back to Seattle and back to Miami and then to New York (15,000 miles).

Under 1 of these cups there is a ping pong ball...

....and you have to find this cup...

 

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[InspireHD]

If you're the sole winner of $1.6 billion, there would be a $904 million cash payout.

The odds of winning is 1 in 302,575,350. One ticket is $2.

When you win, you win $904 million. When you lose one ticket, you lose $2.

EV is ($904,000,000 * .0000000033) + (-2 * .9999999966) = $2.9832 - 1.9999 = $.9832 or $.98.

I don't remember what yesterday's payout was, but I believe it was somewhere in the range of $506 million. Based on the EV, yesterday's drawing would have been a negative EV draw. Next weeks will actually put you in the positive territory if you're going to play the EV side of it - and assuming you are the sole winner. In fact, if my math is right, your EV goes up as you buy more tickets.

You're still not likely to win (OMG SOMEONE HAS TO WIN, THOUGH!), but EV says it might be worth a shot this time.

**If my math is wrong, please correct me.**

 

[MJ DeMarco]

You're still not likely to win (OMG SOMEONE HAS TO WIN, THOUGH!), but EV says it might be worth a shot this time.

Yes, when the EV goes positive that's when I consider playing!

**If my math is wrong, please correct me.**

The math gives me a headache, but Ill take your word for it!

 

[Raoul Duke]

If you're the sole winner of $1.6 billion, there would be a $904 million cash payout.

The odds of winning is 1 in 302,575,350. One ticket is $2.

When you win, you win $904 million. When you lose one ticket, you lose $2.

EV is ($904,000,000 * .0000000033) + (-2 * .9999999966) = $2.9832 - 1.9999 = $.9832 or $.98.

I don't remember what yesterday's payout was, but I believe it was somewhere in the range of $506 million. Based on the EV, yesterday's drawing would have been a negative EV draw. Next weeks will actually put you in the positive territory if you're going to play the EV side of it - and assuming you are the sole winner. In fact, if my math is right, your EV goes up as you buy more tickets.

You're still not likely to win (OMG SOMEONE HAS TO WIN, THOUGH!), but EV says it might be worth a shot this time.

**If my math is wrong, please correct me.**

I need to brush up on EV again.

Where does the .0000000033 and .9999999966 come from? Everything else I understand.

 

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[Guest12120]

it's amazing that people wait hours in line just to throw away their money.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVB6pVZwghY

 

[InspireHD]

I need to brush up on EV again.

Where does the .0000000033 and .9999999966 come from? Everything else I understand.

If you play one ticket, you have 1 in 302,575,350 chance of winning. That is similar to saying you have a 1 in 3 chance of winning. 1 / 3 = .33. So, 1 / 302,575,350 = .0000000033. And similarly, you have 2 out of 3 chances of losing or 2 / 3 = .66. So, here, your chances of losing are 302,575,349 / 302,575,350 = .9999999966.

In smaller numbers, it's important that you subtract that $2 from your winnings, but at the magnitude of this lottery, it won't change much. Winning $903,999,998 is not much different than $904,000,000.

 

[ljean]

If you include income taxes the EV is back near or less than $0

 

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[MTEE1985]

I’m in, my threshold is around the $500,000,000 mark, so maybe $10/year for some amusement.

Think I’ll start a VC fund for my FLF friends if I win!

 

[AgainstAllOdds]

Looks like this weekend's jackpot has reached over $1 billion, anyone PLAYING?

Usually when the jackpot is this high, the expected value EV goes positive.

Mega Millions jackpot soars to record $1.6 billion after no winners in Friday’s drawing

I played for $6.

Only time I'll ever play is with positive EV.

Now need to check if I won.

Edit: Lol. A friend told me it was positive EV and I tossed money on it. I need to stop being lazy and do the math, or listen to @pkom79 instead.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

I need to brush up on EV again.

Add up the odds and results to get a positive or a negative number.

Flip a coin for a $1 bet.
Heads wins 95 cents.
Tails loses $1.

Sum (Odds X Outcome)
Negative number = Negative EV
Positive number = Positive EV

Win: .50 X .95 = +.475
Lose .50 X -1 = -.500

.475 + -.500 = -.025 (or negative 2.5%) which is essentially your negative edge at casino blackjack.

 

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[minivanman]

Now remember, my wife is a worker bee at the museum and loves it. She took off for a 4 day weekend and Friday morning she said, "Why don't we buy up every winning number? I'm sure with it being close to $1 billion we would come out ahead". I looked at her and said, "Do you realize how many people we would have to hire to do that?". She said, "Yeah, I guess your right..... but it might be worth it". I said, "Ok, you hire the people and take care of it, I'm going to take a nap". She hasn't mentioned it since. lol

 

[garyfritz]

If you're the sole winner of $1.6 billion, there would be a $904 million cash payout.

Yes, a lot of people don't realize you don't win $X from a $X jackpot. You can get that much over the 30-year payout, which has a NPV much below the claimed value. If you want a lump-sum one-time payout, you only get about 55% of the claimed jackpot value.

Then they will automatically withhold 24% federal tax, or $217M on the $904M lump sum. Finally, most states take their cut too, running about $35M - $80M. So e.g. in Arizona, with 5% tax for in-state residents, you'll pay $45M in taxes.

Mega Millions Jackpot Analysis | USA Mega

So out of that "$1.6B" jackpot, your account will actually see about $642M. And THAT'S what you should use for your EV calculations.

I'd still take it if they offered it to me...

 

[MitchC]

Yes, a lot of people don't realize you don't win $X from a $X jackpot. You can get that much over the 30-year payout, which has a NPV much below the claimed value. If you want a lump-sum one-time payout, you only get about 55% of the claimed jackpot value.

Then they will automatically withhold 24% federal tax, or $217M on the $904M lump sum. Finally, most states take their cut too, running about $35M - $80M. So e.g. in Arizona, with 5% tax for in-state residents, you'll pay $45M in taxes.

Mega Millions Jackpot Analysis | USA Mega

So out of that "$1.6B" jackpot, your account will actually see about $642M. And THAT'S what you should use for your EV calculations.

I'd still take it if they offered it to me...

I might be doing the maths wrong here but could somebody explain how it is wrong if I am?

If there's 300m potential tickets, and they are $2 each, if you bought every ticket it would cost 600m, which means if no one else bought the winner you would be 42m ahead so it's still +EV?

 

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[lowtek]

I might be doing the maths wrong here but could somebody explain how it is wrong if I am?

If there's 300m potential tickets, and they are $2 each, if you bought every ticket it would cost 600m, which means if no one else bought the winner you would be 42m ahead so it's still +EV?

Your analysis is theoretically correct, but the odds of you being the sole winner with this large of a jackpot are non negligible and should be included in the calculation. Everybody and their barber is going to be playing this, and getting more than 1 ticket.

 

[MitchC]

Your analysis is theoretically correct, but the odds of you being the sole winner with this large of a jackpot are non negligible and should be included in the calculation. Everybody and their barber is going to be playing this, and getting more than 1 ticket.

I figured it was kind of impossible to work out the odds of that happening though, I guess you could find data on how many tickets are usually sold when the jackpots this high, InspireHD seems to have calculated this in a much more complicated way but still not taken into account for someone else splitting the winner, I'm wondering if my math gets the same answer as his or if there is a reason mine is wrong.