The Ukraine War, implications, outcome?

[MA81]

 

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[Antifragile]

I hate to be contrarian but..... why does the US need to get involved at all?

Why do the war drums beat so loudly.
Well, we know why... the military industrial complex is vast.
Afghanistan ended, so, we need a new war?


I don't get it.
I have a Russian wife.
I spent a month in Ukraine last year.

Russia and Ukraine have often been at war.
Why do others need to get involved here in national building?


What am I missing here.
This just seems like another distraction for anyone not nearby.

If USA does nothing (as I suspect it will), it’s a sign of weakness. Next is Taiwan. Again, sign of weakness.

Why does it matter?

USD is a world reserve currency. This privilege is only available to the dominant power. Weakness threatens the USA becoming less of a world leader. Loss of reserve currency status would be a devastating issue for the US economy. Think about all that debt that would have to be paid back, it would devalue USD to a nothing.

So Biden is F*cked either way. Do something? No support. And do what? No money to fight wars earthier. Do nothing. Bad news for the “USA is the world leader, we stand behind our debts” etc.

That’s why.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

If USA does nothing (as I suspect it will), it’s a sign of weakness. Next is Taiwan. Again, sign of weakness.

Why does it matter?

USD is a world reserve currency. This privilege is only available to the dominant power. Weakness threatens the USA becoming less of a world leader. Loss of reserve currency status would be a devastating issue for the US economy. Think about all that debt that would have to be paid back, it would devalue USD to a nothing.

So Biden is f*cked either way. Do something? No support. And do what? No money to fight wars earthier. Do nothing. Bad news for the “USA is the world leader, we stand behind our debts” etc.

That’s why.

I know you hate him but I really wish we had DJT right now. He would have enough competent generals and leaders around him to make sure the right things get done. He wouldn't f*ck it up. Ok, at least, not as much as the cross-dressing generals we have now.

USA would feel stronger & safer. Doesn't matter if he said something dumb.

Basically...

 

[Kevin88660]

If USA does nothing (as I suspect it will), it’s a sign of weakness. Next is Taiwan. Again, sign of weakness.

Why does it matter?

USD is a world reserve currency. This privilege is only available to the dominant power. Weakness threatens the USA becoming less of a world leader. Loss of reserve currency status would be a devastating issue for the US economy. Think about all that debt that would have to be paid back, it would devalue USD to a nothing.

So Biden is f*cked either way. Do something? No support. And do what? No money to fight wars earthier. Do nothing. Bad news for the “USA is the world leader, we stand behind our debts” etc.

That’s why.

U.S. doesn’t need to stop Russia or China to win.

U.S. just needs to prove to be safe. It is not in Eurasia. It doesnt have the border conflicts that other continental powers have.

With the crisis deepening in Europe people are going to sell euro and convert them into dollar asset. By saying “we stand with Ukraine but we gonna do nothing”. Biden is exactly maximizing the financial profit.

If China attacks Taiwan they will be shooting themselves in the foot. All the other Asian countries are going to wary and inviting American influences. It is going to put a dent on the trade and infrastructure deals China had.

 

[Xeon]

Side note and unpopular opinion, I always wondered what would have happened if, instead of looking to the West to want to be part of them, what if Ukraine had looked to Russia and build friendly ties with them and look to China/Asia as their dominant trading partners instead?

 

[ZF Lee]

I know you hate him but I really wish we had DJT right now. He would be going Winston Churchill, and he would have enough competent generals and leaders around him to make sure the right things get done. He wouldn't f*ck it up. Ok, at least, not as much as the cross-dressing generals we have now.

USA would feel stronger & safer. Doesn't matter if he said something dumb.

Basically...

That will come IMO. Patience. See how the midterms will run.
But that process to get there won't be pretty.

I think the way Churchhill got into power also was when political frustration built up against the Chamberlain inefficiency...when they lost Norway to the Germans.

 

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[Antifragile]

Some of you know (who listened to @Kak radio show) that I am from Ukraine originally. I have family there.

This morning at 5AM local time, 17 out of 24 provinces of Ukraine were being bombed by Russia. This is a strategic move as airports were main target.

Borders are closed. No one can come or leave Ukraine.

Food and necessities are dwindling to nothing.

Putin calls this "not a war, but a military operation" and if the West gets involved, it'll become a war.

 

[Trevor Kuntz]

I know you hate him but I really wish we had DJT right now. He would be going Winston Churchill, and he would have enough competent generals and leaders around him to make sure the right things get done. He wouldn't f*ck it up. Ok, at least, not as much as the cross-dressing generals we have now.

What exactly would DJT be capable of doing in this situation? His primary asset was his "unpredictability", yet this is a situation where many options are not on the table. I think you have rose-colored glasses in comparing him to Churchill, a man with much different ambition and mindset.

If this situation is analogous to WWII in any way, this is Italy invading Ethiopia in 1935, not Germany invading Poland in 1939. Russia is still playing second fiddle here.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

That will come IMO. Patience. See how the midterms will run.
But that process to get there won't be pretty.

I think the way Churchhill got into power also was when political frustration built up against the Chamberlain inefficiency...

Nobody was invading countries during his term. He was far from perfect, but you know nobody wanted to mess around...

Thanks for the history lesson, never heard of Chamberlain (besides Wilt)

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

What exactly would DJT be capable of doing in this situation? His primary asset was his "unpredictability", yet this is a situation where many options are not on the table. I think you have rose-colored glasses in comparing him to Churchill, a man with much different ambition and mindset.

If this situation is analogous to WWII in any way, this is Italy invading Ethiopia in 1935, not Germany invading Poland in 1939. Russia is still playing second fiddle here.

He acted quickly and decisively on international issues, like in Syria and Iran. He expressed toughness on China and Russia and clearly was not afraid of acting on it. He even managed to cool off "rocket man."

He's not my favorite president ever, hell I didn't even vote for him in the primaries, but he's so much better than what the US is now.

Biden can barely put a sentence together.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

USD is a world reserve currency. This privilege is only available to the dominant power. Weakness threatens the USA becoming less of a world leader. Loss of reserve currency status would be a devastating issue for the US economy. Think about all that debt that would have to be paid back, it would devalue USD to a nothing.

Worse, we produce nothing of value any longer as anything valuable has been outsourced to other countries.

What economic strength do we have? If you threaten us we will embargo you from ordering Samsung TVs from Walmart, oh wait, we get those from S. Korea!

never heard of Chamberlain

Wow, history knows him as the ultimate groveling appeaser, like the USA is now.

 

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[Trevor Kuntz]

He acted quickly and decisively on international issues, like in Syria and Iran. He expressed toughness on China and Russia and clearly was not afraid of acting on it.
He even managed to cool off "rocket man."

Biden can barely put a sentence together.

It is difficult to respond to your reply when you edit it four times in five minutes. Lol.

Trump maintained the status quo in a world that was on a level trajectory from 2011 to 2019. Much has changed on the geopolitical stage in the last two years. If you could build a 100% accurate simulation with DJT as president, I would be genuinely curious to see what actions he takes. In reality, I think his options and his prowess would be much more limited in this situation than you think.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

It is difficult to respond to your reply when you edit it four times in five minutes. Lol.

Trump maintained the status quo in a world that was on a level trajectory from 2011 to 2019. Much has changed on the geopolitical stage in the last two years. If you could build a 100% accurate simulation with DJT as president, I would be genuinely curious to see what actions he takes. In reality, I think his options and his prowess would be much more limited in this situation than you think.

Look man, forget about it. It's hypothetical. Take this instead:

The world is more dangerous under this current administration. This invasion is happening now. It's not happening 4 years ago.

That's all there is to it, those are the facts, and now we see if Biden can lead the US in any form at all. (So far, he has been extraordinarily incompetent)

 

[Antifragile]

Worse, we produce nothing of value any longer as anything valuable has been outsourced to other countries.

Exactly why Putin is fine. There is a bunch of morons screaming "economic sanctions!!!". So what? Russia + China have everything they need now. China over the past 50 years grew from mostly in poverty to only 1% of population being below poverty line. They have enough. Taiwan is next.

The difference is that neither Putin, nor Xi, nor anyone else wants a hot war. No one wants a WW III. It's too hard on every country, even remote countries like the USA.

And bringing the work back to the USA, consider how the people who are used to doing "higher value work" would feel on the assembly line for minimum wages of Vietnam (not the USA).

I am ranting now... just sucks for good people who are caught in the middle of it all in Ukraine. Hunger, poverty, threat on life etc.

 

[David Fitz]

From the news I gathered so far, the west can't put troops in Ukraine because Ukraine is not part of NATO.

The west wants to hurt Russia financially with sanctions and cut them off from the west. This could cause Russia a lot of trouble and piss off a few of their billionaires if their business interests are getting effected.

 

[ZF Lee]

Side note and unpopular opinion, I always wondered what would have happened if, instead of looking to the West to want to be part of them, what if Ukraine had looked to Russia and build friendly ties with them and look to China/Asia as their dominant trading partners instead?

Then they become another Belarus.

Somehow the fine art of Lee Kuan Yew 'why not both' statecraft is rarely mastered these days by world leaders.

Wow, history knows him as the ultimate groveling appeaser, like the USA is now.

I miss Theodore Roosevelt. The Big Stick ideology.

 

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[Guest-5ty5s4]

Exactly why Putin is fine. There is a bunch of morons screaming "economic sanctions!!!". So what? Russia + China have everything they need now. China over the past 50 years grew from mostly in poverty to only 1% of population being below poverty line. They have enough. Taiwan is next.

The difference is that neither Putin, nor Xi, nor anyone else wants a hot war. No one wants a WW III. It's too hard on every country, even remote countries like the USA.

And bringing the work back to the USA, consider how the people who are used to doing "higher value work" would feel on the assembly line for minimum wages of Vietnam (not the USA).

I am ranting now... just sucks for good people who are caught in the middle of it all in Ukraine. Hunger, poverty, threat on life etc.

I have been saying this for years regarding industrial production and manufacturing.

Letting your country lose all of its industrial production is a deathwish. Now China and Russia have all the factories to produce things and the west has people in cubicles.

 

[Trevor Kuntz]

I miss Theodore Roosevelt. The Big Stick ideology.

Well, 9 countries now have their own Big Sticks and they don't exactly get along with each other. Only option is to pray a brawl doesn't break out.

 

[missinfinity98]

Bravo. Are you from Ukraine? I would actually want to know what's happening there from a local instead of the mainstream media. I'm getting the alternative news from Twitter and Reddit.

No, I am not from Ukraine. I have met some Ukrainians. One time I was watching TikTok with a Ukrainian woman. We did it for entertainment. I was discovering new videos. One was a group of young US youngsters - "pranking" their friend by throwing her asleep into a bathtub filled with milk and cereal. I looked at the face of this woman - she was trying to hide it, but she was devastated. I didn't know what to say honestly...


To check out their everyday reality I would stick to Reddit if I were you. Just find locals who share their experiences online

 

[Kybalion]

Apparently they're attacking civilians not just military targets... wtf.
View attachment 274852038_3170910039805597_6658594883331892886_n.mp4

 

[MTF]

Protests against the invasion already happening in major Russian cities. How poetic would it be if led to a pro-democratic revolution in Russia.

Meanwhile, I've been hearing NATO fighter jets flying over Poland all day long. I can't imagine how scary it must be to know they're piloted by the aggressor and are destroying your country...

 

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[missinfinity98]

Protests against the invasion already happening in major Russian cities. How poetic would it be if led to a pro-democratic revolution in Russia.

Meanwhile, I've been hearing NATO fighter jets flying over Poland all day long. I can't imagine how scary it must be to know they're piloted by the aggressor and are destroying your country...

Can we please stop pretending that we have democracy existing? It is just a label

 

[MJ DeMarco]

the west has people in cubicles.

Yes, the American economy is now based on treating disease for its obese citizens, issuing insurance, operating real estate, and managing digital assets ... stuff that means nothing in the grand scheme of existence.

Look around... you see nothing but tech centers, dentists, medical centers, insurance agencies, fast-food joints offering fat and grease, and a swath of retail stores filled with cheap Chinese goods ... we produce nothing of real value and consume everything.

 

[loop101]

Is America today, similar to Russia in the 1940s, in the sense that their experienced military leaders were purged due to politics (during the 1920s and 1930s) - leaving them very weak during the next war?

I don't see Gen Mark Milley instilling fear in anybody, much less Putin or Xi.

 

[Antti]

Side note and unpopular opinion, I always wondered what would have happened if, instead of looking to the West to want to be part of them, what if Ukraine had looked to Russia and build friendly ties with them and look to China/Asia as their dominant trading partners instead?

Didn't Belarus do just that and they are not exactly in a good place either. Russia/Soviet Union has always been a tricky neighbor for smaller countries. In their mind only big world powers should have any say in the world. Smaller countries are there only to be exploited.

Western Europe, especially Germany, made a critical mistake by getting so dependant on Russian oil and gas. That's why Putin can now throw his weight around.

 

[Xeon]

Apparently they're attacking civilians not just military targets... wtf.
View attachment 42285

Seriously, Zelensky needs to surrender immediately.

If I remember reading correctly just now, NATO has said they're not going to send troops into Ukraine. That means Ukraine is fighting Russia alone and let's be realistic about this, they're not going to win. The longer Zelensky tries to "hold on" and perservere, it's only going to get more innocent Ukrainians killed.

Screw all that patriotism and ideals. Those crap mean nothing if people are dying.

 

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[loop101]

AWS is the biggest cloud provider in Russia, will American cloud providers deplatform Russia?

 

[Antifragile]

Seriously, Zelensky needs to surrender immediately.

If I remember reading correctly just now, NATO has said they're not going to send troops into Ukraine. That means Ukraine is fighting Russia alone and let's be realistic about this, they're not going to win. The longer Zelensky tries to "hold on" and perservere, it's only going to get more innocent Ukrainians killed.

Screw all that patriotism and ideals. Those crap mean nothing if people are dying.

Sadly … yes. Russia is too big for Ukraine alone. And no one else is coming. Putin knows this and counts on this.

 

[Fox]

The "West" lets-invite-this-to-happen-to-us starter pack:

- Go woke
- Lock everyone down
- Have losers as leaders
- Have a culture that makes people soft AF
- Promote zero fitness, critical thinking or self-responsibility
- Lose all credibility in your government, media, and institutions
- Outsource your energy supply and essential manufacturing overseas
- Turn the army into a trendy political statement instead of an actually feared force

It is terrible Ukraine has to be the place where this kicks off but eventually Russia or China was going to do something like this. Europe, America, and Canada are looking like soft targets atm.

 

[Trevor Kuntz]

Is America today, similar to Russia in the 1940s, in the sense that their experienced military leaders were purged due to politics (during the 1920s and 1930s) - leaving them very weak during the next war?

I don't see Gen Mark Milley instilling fear in anybody, much less Putin or Xi.

Probably less like 1930s Russia and more like 1930s Third Republic France. You don't really know who your effective leaders really are until shit hits in the fan. War exercises can give you some idea of competency (don't look up Millennium Challenge 2002 )

That said, general staff are extremely important. Gen. Marshall was way more important in WWII than any of the more famous battlefield generals like Patton.

So hopefully shit doesn't hit the fan.