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HOT TOPIC Will the Wuhan Coronavirus kill us all?

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Ather

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Probably time to ban travel/trade outbound from China till they get this sorted out.
 

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Primeperiwinkle

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It may not kill us - but I'm interested to see if there's a bigger economic impact (which may, in turn, kill us :playful:)

As someone who lives in Australia our economy is hopelessly tied to Chinese business/tourism - our stock market dropped $36 billion on open yesterday morning....

The media spent the last month touting our 'world record breaking' stock market highs (usually a good indicator of a coming crash), we have more short term debt than ever before and some of the most expensive property and living costs in the first world.

Couple all this with the fact that half the country is on fire and in drought, we're having a great time down here.

The thing is, modern macroeconomic theory was mostly developed in the 1980s-90s, it didn't take into account how interconnected everything would become with the internet. There are parts of the world that didn't get the effects of the 2008 market crash until TWO YEARS LATER! If we go, it will be interesting to see what else then goes...

tldr; The Coronavirus may give you the sniffles, but it might kill the Australian economy
This is extremely interesting to me. I’ve been wondering when the fires effects would be seen.. freaking fire is covering an area almost as big as the US. I have two dear friends in Australia and my heart goes out to you. If it does “kill” the economy in Australia.. how bad are we talking about? And which countries rely on Australia?

What kind of expert would have those answers?
 

Megalodon

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Probably time to ban travel/trade outbound from China till they get this sorted out.
This is exactly the concern, as Australia's largest two way trading partner, the amount of our GDP what is tied to their economy is staggering.

This is extremely interesting to me. I’ve been wondering when the fires effects would be seen.. freaking fire is covering an area almost as big as the US. I have two dear friends in Australia and my heart goes out to you. If it does “kill” the economy in Australia.. how bad are we talking about? And which countries rely on Australia?

What kind of expert would have those answers?
It's a question for a macro-economist (I have basic knowledge and an interest, but it's been a long time since I studied it and certainly not an expert myself haha)

Australia is currently in the world record holding economic boom for developed economies (old article, but this holds true), which means that following business and economic cycles we are due for a significant downturn.

The fires themselves have been devastating and unprecedented, but alone haven't been enough to destabilize the country too badly outside of directly affected areas. The worry is that with everything going on it forms a perfect storm of market instability and things start spiraling downwards

Australia is a major player in the Asia-Pacific region, and a massive exporter of fossil fuels and livestock. The thing is though that through globalization, we're all linked to each other. At a guess the biggest initial flow on impact would be market confidence - if a first world economy goes under generally you see market volatility based on uncertainty in any interconnected markets.
 

sparechange

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lowtek

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On Nov 18, 2019 the Wuhan Institute of Virology posted an open post doc position for research into long lived SARS and related corona viruses in bats.

About a month later an epidemic of corona virus breaks out, attributed to eating bat meat.

I'm sure this is just a coincidence and totally not evidence of an accidental release of a bioweapon.

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Speculation aside, here's what we know. It's doubling every 30 hours or so, and that's just according to the officially acknowledged numbers. More disturbing, the number of fatalities is higher than the number of recoveries. What to make of that, I'm not certain, but it sure as hell doesn't look good. It means that of the resolved cases, half the people died and half recovered. How it will shake out in the coming weeks, we're just going to have to wait and see, but it sure doesn't look like a 3% fatality rate.
 

scottmsul

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It means that of the resolved cases, half the people died and half recovered. How it will shake out in the coming weeks, we're just going to have to wait and see, but it sure doesn't look like a 3% fatality rate.
Simply comparing the current deaths to recoveries would significantly over-estimate the death rate, if it kills quickly but takes a while to be pronounced "fully recovered."
 

lowtek

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Simply comparing the current deaths to recoveries would significantly over-estimate the death rate, if it kills quickly but takes a while to be pronounced "fully recovered."
Certainly. We're going to have to wait and see.
 

ZF Lee

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I can see it now... people dropshipping masks from Aliexpress to paranoid westerners, only to end up spreading the infection from the factory workers in China.
Possible...if they leave body residue Like sweat on packaging. I dunno if studies have looked into this yet though.

I read though that commercial aircraft have ‘vacuum systems’ that suck in and eliminate bacteria and viruses, but I have no idea if similar measures are done towards cargo or air freight.

We might need sprays not just for our hands, but for our goods as well haha.
 

journeyfoxx

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Here's my observation, as someone who does not consume mainstream media.

I sense that people have real fear about this, but I can't tell if that fear is justified or just something manufactured by skillful fearmongers.

The media has really heightened and honed their ability to breed real fear of diseases over the past few years.

Fear is naturally contagious, but there will always be those people who shrug it off and say, "Meh, whatever. It's not going to be as bad as they're trying to get you to think."

I'm one of those people. But it seems that we have gotten thinned out by the media's increasing ability to convince a huge number of people that it WILL be as bad or worse than we think.

I remember discussing Ebola a few years back with a co-worker who was genuinely terrified of Ebola. His attitude was the same as the one in this thread title: "Is Ebola going to kill us all?" I realized then, "Wow, people actually believe this!" This guy was not unstable or just a wuss. He was a manly dude, earning very high wages, well liked, extremely good looking, and overall someone who was enjoying life and fun to be around.

I remember SARS being a thing. I went to China in January of 2004, and lots of people were still wearing masks. I've noticed periodically the contrast between how EVERYONE in China seemed to be adopting mask wearing as a normal thing, and how very few people here do so. It seems to me that China has been MORE successful at breeding that fear population-wide, but we are catching up.

I think this fear becomes easier and easier to breed because every successive event taps into the fear that was already aroused in the last round and just layers on top of it. So for instance, all the fear that built up in my coworker who was afraid of Ebola will probably revive in full force, and now coronavirus will just build on that.

Is it possible to experience a worldwide pandemic? Yeah.

Is it likely that this is it? I don't think so.

Will it affect some people? Yes. Will it be heartbreaking for them? Yes.

But car accidents affect people every day, and we're not terrified to drive our cars. In fact, we tend to think, "It won't happen to me."

Car accidents cause about 40,000 deaths per year in the US [source]. Worldwide, there are an estimated 1.24 million car accident deaths per year [source].

I can see us freaking out and feeling like "it might affect me" if the numbers approach car accident numbers.

I can see us progressing to think, "it might kill us all" if the numbers rise to double or triple that.

Until the death toll for this comes closer to car accident numbers, though, I think it's all just a bunch of hype and manipulation.
Well said.

I'm in Taipei, and so far 5 cases in Taiwan, only. People are walking around wearing masks (I'm not), but in Taiwan there's a special number to call if you feel flu-like symptoms. Call the number and an ambulance and an EMS crew wearing anti-contamination suits will drop by and pick you up and take you to a quarantine chamber. This kind of action is why it won't kill all of us.

Yes, the news is indeed having a field day with this, and people are lapping it up like moist dog food.
 

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VicFountain

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100 years ago 50M died in the 1918 Pandemic. It killed 3x the people WW1 did. We are about due for another one.

Accelerating infections:

They are treating an infected guy in Seattle using a robot:

"Plague Inc" is best selling iOS App:
Why caring about something that is not remotely under your control?
 

NovaAria

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At the start of the outbreak I thought of starting a small "survival kit" thing and selling it online. I expected others to have the same idea but, boy, I didnt expect to find so many sellers out of stock.

Everything locally available is already sold, and every order will only come from one place: China. I asked around and, from what I saw, people would rather go maskless than buy masks from china right now.
 

Brewmacker

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"Plague Inc" is best selling iOS App:
Haha, just Dusted this app off after digging it out from an old IOS folder to show my Dutch Colleagues. Awesome game.
Try it on its hardest mode and you will see that humanity we will probably be fine.
 

The-J

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Manufacturers in China are being told not to work until 10 February.

For those who are sourcing from there, make sure your customers know about potential supply issues as a result.
 

amp0193

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Manufacturers in China are being told not to work until 10 February.

For those who are sourcing from there, make sure your customers know about potential supply issues as a result.
Thanks for the advice... will do.
 

ChickenHawk

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Why caring about something that is not remotely under your control?
Because you can exercise some control over how it impacts you, or your odds of getting it. At the bare minimum, you should have a few weeks of food/water/supplies on hand for yourself, your family, and your pets.

Forget the virus for a moment. Let's say you're immune from it. (Yay!) Will you still need to eat? How will you do that if the stores are closed? Or if the shelves are bare? How will you feed yourself? Your child? Your spouse? Your pet?

There's this great book, "One Second After," which offers a fictional, yet realistic, portrayal over how basic systems break down in the event of an emergency. In the book, the event is an EMP. But the lessons are universal. Don't count on the government to save you if things go haywire. If this becomes a pandemic, the whole world will be impacted. Who will ride to your rescue? Who will deliver your food? Who will take care of your kids?

Once again, I'm not suggesting anyone panic. But what's the worst that can happen if you buy groceries in advance? Nothing. You've done your grocery shopping early. In contrast, what's the worst that can happen if you don't buy some extra food/water/supplies, and your area is impacted? Think about it. It's not pretty.
 

Jonathan Hoch

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I can see it now... people dropshipping masks from Aliexpress to paranoid westerners, only to end up spreading the infection from the factory workers in China.
And all the pharma companies are the ones ordering and distributing these masks while developing pills that are just good enough to keep us alive, and that we will need to take for the rest of our lives to survive.
 

ChickenHawk

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You know how all those disaster movies open? With panic in a non-Western country? And the movie's main character glances at the TV in passing and says, "Man, look at that. How odd..."

What happens after that? The disaster hits home for the main character. And this is when those of us in the audience smugly say, "Hey, that main character should've realized something was up."

The scenes in this video are not from a movie.

(Edited because I tried to imbed the video and failed miserably.)
 

Bekit

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You know how all those disaster movies open? With panic in a non-Western country? And the movie's main character glances at the TV in passing and says, "Man, look at that. How odd..."

What happens after that? The disaster hits home for the main character. And this is when those of us in the audience smugly say, "Hey, that main character should've realized something was up."

The scenes in this video are not from a movie.

(Edited because I tried to imbed the video and failed miserably.)
You make some good points. That is one crazy video.
 

NovaAria

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I agree with @ChickenHawk . It's better to have a panic and people compulsively washing their hands in fear of a possible outbreak, than people sitting on their asses and thinking that everything will be under control thanks to our nanny, good ol' government.

Also, yeah. I remember back in the Bosnian war the biggest problem people faced was, you will never guess it... toilet paper.
Where will you and your family take care of your human needs when water and the sanitary systems stop running? People living in big cities rely on supplies and support from outside the city.
 

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MJ DeMarco

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There's this great book, "One Second After," which offers a fictional, yet realistic, portrayal over how basic systems break down in the event of an emergency. In the book, the event is an EMP. But the lessons are universal. Don't count on the government to save you if things go haywire. If this becomes a pandemic, the whole world will be impacted. Who will ride to your rescue? Who will deliver your food? Who will take care of your kids?
I've read that book, definitely changed my perspective after reading. I think it was probably the most accurate portrayal of how things w/could go south. A definite recommended read for the forum, after reading, it won't leave you the same.
 
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loop101

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One day these numbers will drop, but not today.


30015

30016
 

MattR82

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Just heard an update from someone in HK. Says it's much worse than said on western media. No bread, limited food, people encouraged to work from home. Streets very quiet obviously everyone really worried.
 

NovaAria

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I think that one reason why there is such a fear is due to all the hidden info and blatant misinformation done by our governments, ironically done to avoid a panic.

My country's state decided to start planning ahead by preparing abandoned hotels to be used as makeshift hospitals and quarantines in case of a breakout. To avoid putting the people in the areas at unease, they told them that they were just running trainings and simulations there to teach nurses and docs how to handle potential suspects. Just in case.
Well, people saw trucks coming and going and the hotels turning into hospitals... and you can guess how the citizens who live in those areas reacted.
 

DavidTT

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Honestly I just hope I get my package lol. Ordered some stuff on Aliexpress and I swear they ought to ship it.
 

amp0193

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The scenes in this video are not from a movie.
Yup, there's your supermarket scenes at the end. Bare shelves and people fighting over rice.

The quarantine videos were wild. Physically building walls with bulldozers to keep Wuahn cars out.
 

amp0193

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Honestly I just hope I get my package lol. Ordered some stuff on Aliexpress and I swear they ought to ship it.
Factories have already been closed for Chinese New Years, and many are being told by the government (including mine) to not return to work until Feb 10. This could easily be extended if the situation worsens.

Delays will be highly likely.
 

DavidTT

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Factories have already been closed for Chinese New Years, and many are being told by the government (including mine) to not return to work until Feb 10. This could easily be extended if the situation worsens.

Delays will be highly likely.
Ahh crap. I knew I shouldn't have ordered my stuff now.
 

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